🚨 NVIDIA STOCK CRUSHED - IS THE BULL DEAD??

Start what does it look like John second quarter earnings are in for NVIDIA 68 cents adjusted versus the estimate of 64 cents so a beat on its bottom line revenue at 3.04 billion also higher than Wall Street consensus of 28.7 billion we have comments here from CEO Jensen Wong in the press release Hopper demand remains strong and the anticipation for Blackwell is incredible he says Nvidia achieved record revenues as global data centers are in Full Throttle to modernize the entire Computing stack he goes on to say that black samples are shipping into shipping to our partners and customers Spectrum X ethernet for AI and Nvidia AI enterprise software are two new product categories achieving significant scale another data point here Nvidia announcing a $50 billion repurchase of shares we are watching the stock here uh move fractionally higher in overtime John we'll get you the guidance in just a second coming up today Nvidia Revenue surges the forecast failed to meet lofty expectations sending shares sharply lower did they just topple the bull market super micro plunges 27% bsh haway Hits 1 trillion what happened to cannabis stocks why uranium could be a buy why is Bitcoin sliding and all the after hours action and Nvidia shares it's a big day guys let's [Music] go and welcome back to this very important day in the market just heard from Nvidia whove reported earnings and it appears the market may have had a little heads up going into it little soft in the regular session today NVDA STOCK pulling back on S&P 500 5592 however all the action is happening in Nvidia it to finishing the regular session down 2% and just going down to the 3 minute chart after hours here see the price action that's happening as I speak down 6.7% we did do a really big dip straight away after we got earnings looked like there was a bit of a by the dip there and we've just come down and retested that exact level right to the tick 1151 we've bounced off currently hovering around 117 and stick with me today cuz I'll come back to the after hours action in Nvidia and I'll show you how it's trading as we head into postm Market close 8:00 p.m. a.m Eastern Standard Time first just to quickly get you updated on the numbers earnings per share came in at 68 cents beting Wall Street expectations are 64 cents and revenue beat as well bit over 30 billion versus 28.7 billion that represents an 80% increase on sales from a year earlier net income more than doubled and they actually increased their guidance going out Q3 as well however it fell short of lofty expectations appears the market was hoping for a much bigger increase in guidance they said Q3 revenues forecast to come in 32.5 billion about 2 and a half billion more than what we just got in this current quarter they do have some production challenges with the new black wheel chip that's probably playing a little bit into this negative reaction we're getting however they also approved an additional $50 billion in stock BuyBacks that's a huge number really supportive of the stock price and I mean they did beat on the top and bottom line so overall the numbers were pretty good guidance was pretty good however it could have been a little better and the market may be a little bit worried about some potential production issues or the market may just be using this as a liquidity event take some chips off the table either way you cut it their revenue is still exploding especially in data center Revenue Nvidia originally cated to Gamers back in the 90 however this recent AI boom a lot of The hyperscalers Big capex Spenders realize their gpus are pretty good crunching large amounts of data quickly that's why 87% of their revenue now comes from Data Center and just looking at their data center revenues up 640 in the last 18 months just absolutely exploding on the upside and so just like Cisco was the Pix and sh provider back in the internet boom in the late '90s Nvidia is most definitely the Pix and shovels provider in this AI boom Microsoft making up about 20% of their revenue and all the other big Mega cap tech companies Tesla and super micro making up a little bit more than half of nvidia's Revenue and the forecast is they're going to keep spending big going forward looking out the next 2 years however we may have already seen that big percentage changes comeing off this stable base as the acceleration looks to settle in at a lower rate and since that Revenue growth just came in at 80% year-over-year maybe we've already seen a peak in their year-over-year revenue growth as well couple of quarters ago 265 so potentially their huge growth rate may have peaked out even though they're well and truly set to still continually grow for the next couple of years maybe we won't see a revenue growth print above 100% for a little while now and so this bull market that bottomed in October 2022 pretty much been formed by the AI boom with Nvidia the leader very important stock in the market not only since it's the second biggest stock being one of the biggest drivers of the S&P 500 and the nasdaq's return Head and Shoulders above the market when it comes to options volume and I'd say even more importantly than that sediment around this bull market and the AI boom hinges on the price action of Nvidia along with the company's guidance and that's why we've seen a lot of memes like this being thrown around online today Nvidia is said to be the general of the generals and if Nvidia Falls away loses its long-term Trend it may just open the door for the other big stocks to do the same as well what will be important will be apple on September 9th unveiling their iPhone 6 and going to tell us how they're integrating AI into their new product and not helping the picture SMCI Cooking the Books today is super micro computer which had also been one of the hottest stocks over this past year or so thanks to the AI boom just had a report out from Hindenburg research yesterday famous short seller accusing them of cooking the books citing poor internal accounting controls and that was compounded after the company came out and said what they need to delay their 10K filing and that always worries the market when you see companies delay their filings basically that means they're ready to release them however something made them wanted to go over and do them all again probably because there's some substance to the short seller report apparently super micro has already paid 17.5 million fine to the secc due to widespread accounting violation but this sort of stuff just creates a lot of fud fear uncertainty and doubt surrounding the stock and there's a look at the daily chart of Super Micro computer today down 19% on really heavy volume and just going down to a 3 minute chart after hours on super micro that's coming off hard as well down another 6.8% after hours on the back of Nvidia and there's the latest look at Nvidia still holding ground around 117 as I speak and stick with me cuz like I said I'll come back to this chart and we'll see whether the market is doing a bit of a Bu The Dip here around 115 117 down 7% which I wouldn't be surprised if it does the numbers were strong they still guided up and the $50 billion stock buyback I mean that's pretty supportive of the stock price and you just look at this big hammer candle on Nvidia immediately after reaction almost fell pretty much 10% just like the options Market priced in then we literally bounced off the exact same tick is that hammer low 1151 so we'll see whether that 115 can hold going into postmarket close and that very well may have been the market buying the dip cuz I would be very surprised to see Nvidia trade down more than 9 10% and stay down there given this really good result even though the market may have been hoping for a little more and the Blackwell production issues I don't think is a major thing they're still selling the h100s and h20s like crazy and so let's just keep an eye on the price action and see where we finish postmarket session but let's just keep in mind at some point the whole AI semiconductor software sector will have its top currently having its day in the sun however looking back in history all sectors mean revert and some of them can dominate the market for decades like the railroad boom back in the 1800s even going into early 1900s 30% of the US market cap today low single digits we also saw that in the chemical sector which had its day in the sun in the 50 getting up above 8% of the US market cap now down under 2% auto manufacturers had their Heyday back in the 1920s going into the 1960s General Motors and Ford top of their game real buzzing city of Detroit now that industry down below 2% oil dominated for decad much throughout the 20th century even coming into the 21st century Exxon Mobile was the most profitable and largest company and we all know how Oil and Gas and energy traded this past decade same with the telecoms they did really well in the mid 1900 and here we are today software internet and semis currently dominating the market and who knows maybe like the railroads this can go on for 50 years I mean it is hard to see technology going away a competition will come valuations will become more reasonable and at some point they will Top out just that nobody knows when but it really doesn't help the pitcher when the socalled Godfather of AI Nvidia CEO Jensen hang has sold over more than half a billion dollars worth of shares just in the last two months alone doesn't really send a super bullish signal to the market and he hadn't sold any for a while before this he'd actually been riding the bull pretty good but I'd say his selling along with impacting Market sediment has been helping to create this kind of topping formation over the last 2 months during the time in which he's been off floating I've been getting a few big bearish engulfing candles here on the chart and maybe that bearish engulfing S&P500 Analysis on S&P 500 we got last Thursday could still be in play as well you'll often see this and bearish and golfing Candlestick patterns the market can pull back coil up for a few days afterwards before toppling over again and just go to the weekly chart on the S&P 500 there's that accelerated trend line we kind of traded up up off the pivot since late October last year so that could be getting tested tomorrow as well with the potential for those August 5th lows came in just above 5100 on the S&P could still potentially be tested before the election as well however what's really going to sway the market is the jobs report next Friday but as we've seen from the Bureau of Labor Statistics they can fudge the numbers pretty much how they want just came out a week ago said their last year's numbers were off by 30% not 3% they were off by 30% almost a third they overestimated job growth in the US economy and do we really think going into a federal election they're going to print a really bad jobs number for all the media headlines to print my bet is the jobs report won't come that bad and they've always got the option to revise it lower down the track when everyone's forgotten about it however according to Goldman the quick rebound after this month's brutal stock market route is a cause for concern they said the selloff on August 5th was a warning shot so it's concerning how fast the market has recovered so there's still a number of challenging macro issues out there US economy could be weakening Europe and China macro momentum not all that great either and we still have some measures of risk on sediment like I've been showing you guys in the chart growth and high beta cyclical versus defensive stuff not reclaiming their 50 days and with the bank of Japan still indicating they could raise rates further now the US going to Titan rates still the potential for some unwind in the end carry trade as well which really caused August 5th to begin with and so even though markets have sharply bounced back from that August 5th low still may not be out of the woods with what caused it to begin with Bank of international settlement did an investigation into the Global Financial Market meltdown on August 5th found that the risk still remain Traders have resumed leverage bets that initially caused a chaos in other words putting the carry trade back on and that was a big big reason for the sharp unwinding we got on the 5th of August is that leverage so maybe we see another episode with the Yang carry trade some point this year as well have a like this article and baron says I think twice before betting against the NASDAQ and big Tech may not be the great time to get long however it may not also be a great time to get short we still don't know for sure whether Nvidia and semis have topped out it's just looking possible for it to really get toppled in my opinion we need to see clear indications that the hyperscalers plan on dialing down their capex that is they plan on spending Less on acquiring and investing in AI infrastructure I'd say that really change the narrative and mood of this stock market and then some of these lofty valuation may get corrected but there's just strong arguments to be had both ways it is hard to see AI as a technology not continuing to be adopted and accelerated within Society therefore the spending sediment towards it should remain as well some say nvidia's price to earnings not as high as Cisco was back in early 2000 it currently trades at 75 times earnings far from the more than 200 times Cisco reached and there's just Big Spenders out there Elon mus one of them so his xai project startup will need 100,000 chips to train current generation models and the next generation will take around 300,000 he's a big customer of Nvidia as well on top of all that the fed's seen enough weakness in the jobs Market to justify a rate cut next month Street still divided whether we're heading into a recession or not whether the soft Landing can continue and I think even in the best case we do get a continued soft Landing avoid recession we'll just be setting up for a Resurgence and inflation looking at a chart here of 4 12mth Returns on the S&P 500 in the blue no recessions in the red with a recession and in the Diamonds the maximum draw down within that 12 months from the First Fed rate cut so we can get a bit of volatility in the first year after a Fed rate cut especially if that's accompanied by weakness in the economy we see a sharp uptick in unemployment however as it stands right now going into the rate cut next month it's not been done out of an emergency it's not been done because the economy's falling off a cliff you can kind of call it a soft rate cut instead of a hard one and typically looking back back on History If the Fed can just cut rates because it has room to not because it has to we can get pretty shallow draw Downs in the market 3 4 6% not much at BRK in Trillion $ Club all and just moving on Burkshire hathway first non-tech company in history to hit a $1 trillion market cap today bit of an early birthday present for Mr Buffett who turns 94 this week first took over birkshire hathway in the mid-60s as a struggling textile manufacturer and any investor that was lucky enough to stick with him that whole time he delivered a 2 million per return you know it was interesting we did get a bit red out there today in Tech financials are acting really strong not only Burkshire haway trading up to alltime highs also JP Morgan the whole financial sector as a whole and just looking at sector bread financials are actually the second strongest when looking at the percentage of stocks above their 200 day average 91% also up there's utilities real estate Telecom and Healthcare kind a bit of a defensive rotation in there but also probably financials getting excited by L rate cuts and there's a look at the performance of sectors from the 5th of August lows Tech Le leading financials number two with energy and utility bouncing the lease and there's a look at how Burkshire fits in with a trillion dollar club and I should clarify Burkshire being the first American non-tech company to hit the trillion dollar Club a Saudi aramco is well and truly in there they sell oil and gas and Cannabis & Politics moving on to some disappointing news especially for cannabis investors like myself guess we can't win them all cannabis stocks falling sharply yesterday and today after the DEA conveniently sets their drug rescheduling hearing to after November and I for one am really disappointed in the Biden Administration for failing on their promise to decriminalize cannabis which he did promise in his campaign however in my opinion because he knows he's not going to get a second term he's just punting the issue down the road letting someone else deal with and this is not just disappointing for cannabis investors like myself it's mostly disappointing for people that need access to the medical benefits of cannabis not to mention the people that are still locked up for simply growing a plant in their backyard because they're trying to heal their pain and they can't afford or they don't want to take opiates so it's okay for his son to smoke crack on on camera with underage girls but if you or I grow a plant in our backyard on United States soil the feds may come and get you and lock you up but it's not all Biden's fault either big farmer plays a big role on this you don't hear about it because they bury it they fund a lot of these organizations that push back and Lobby Washington they're holding it off for as long as possible and believe it or not Purdue farmer helps to finance the anti- Canabis movement and that's the company and family that bought America oxycodone fentanyl amongst other opiate BAS drugs caused a real pandemic in America they can't have people grind plants and healing themselves naturally dealing with their pain cuz there's just no profit in it for them along with the other big farmer companies that helped to sponsor and finance all of these organizations as well and so I've got to admit I got it wrong on cannabis I was hoping the Biden Administration would Legalize It Before the election I was hoping Biden would make good on his campaign promise however I was wrong he failed to do so but like I said it's not us cannabis investors that are paying the ultimate price for this it's people that can't access it and there people that are still sitting locked up in jail now away from their families away from society because like I said they grew a plant in their backyard for their own use anyway that's how it goes maybe if Trump gets in he can do something different Trump has shown to be an opportunist when it comes to political footballs like he did with crypto and I for one we hoping he does the same with cannabis and I think it's just inevitable that it will be eventually federally legalized in America if we do get a government that can stand up to Big farmer and do the right thing and do what 80% of Americans want done and that's to have it federally legalized so like I continue to say it's going to be a very bumpy ride in the Cannabis sector going forward and I've given up all hopes on the Biden Administration and getting it done and you know it was interesting cuz what came up in my feed today was a post from the brics news channel which is pretty big Channel almost 700,000 followers and they give you the news from the brics nation and they came out today and said the United States government mistakenly transferred $239 million to the Taliban and like I said this channel normally reports accurate news but I didn't know whether it was fake or whether to believe it or not so I searched around for it and I couldn't see any major media Outlets reporting it however I dug a little deeper and I actually found the audit report from the special Inspector General on this topic full of words salad however with the help of chat GPT I was actually able to confirm it and the bricks post actually got a little wrong they got their nine and three back to front it wasn't 239 million it was 293 million that the US government has basically sent to the Taliban ever since their bot withdrawal a couple of years ago in which unfortunately 13 US military soldiers were killed straight after that Russia went into planning for the Ukraine Invasion which they did 5 months later you can also thank the Biden Administration for blowing out the US's debt to GDP to record levels increasing it year-over-year more than any other Administration has done for decades the bid administration's also overseen the sharpest increase in inflation in the United States and over 40 years with it accelerating as soon as Biden took office thanks to record government spending and as we just saw on the special audit who send hundreds of millions of dollars to finance terrorist organizations and they don't even know about it Elon Musk is right there needs to be proper oversight and accountability of government spending cuz all that government spending and inflating of the assets has made the rich a lot richer but just about everybody else poorer especially looking at the amount of discretionary spending most Americans struggling to even pay their bills and get food us a housing affordability the worst it's ever been American consumers never felt better than they did from late 2016 going into Co not to mention the record of amount of illegal immigrants some estimates 12 million illegal immigrants have poured in through the US Southern border the US the most powerful superpower the world's ever seen over 100 military bases around the world leads in technology AI just about everything else however the current government hasn't even been able to defend its own Southern border or maybe it was done on purpose and what's really nerve-wracking and I can't see this not having a big impact on the stock market is if Harris does get in she's proposing huge increases on tax taking capital gains tax up to 44.6% and unrealized gains tax to 25% and sure this is only on the wealthy and the rich to start with like all taxes they start off just targeting a small segment of society that's how they get most people to vote for it then just like every other tax they'll increase it every year every year more and more and let's not even talk about censorship which Mark Zuckerberg just admitted Biden Administration pressured them to censor content so in my opinion and yeserday I'm giving my political opinion if Harris takes over the states just heading in the direction of Europe overregulation over taxation more censorship look what they're doing over there you say anything wrong online you may have the police shop your house and throw you in a cage because you said something they don't agree with and so I've said it before and I'll say it again I really hope the states has a clean election come this November unlike what we saw in 2020 how it takes a modern day democracy weeks and weeks to decide a winner how we got a record amount of late mailing votes most of them tilting to one party even small little countries like El Salvador get their election done on the same day like normal democracy they should have the winner decided by midnight that day shouldn't be controversial for voters to be identified before casting a vote illegal immigrants shouldn't be allowed to vote all these things seem like Common Sense however apparently that's controversial so let's just hope for the best to come this November and hopefully United States doesn't go down a socialist and communist Rabbit Hole as some people seem intent on it doing so Oil & Commodities anyway moving on to the commodity Market we got oil pulling back again bumping up and down can't seem to make its mind up similar to bitcoin not even the really US dollar over the last month has really helped to prop up crude oil that much seems to have helped gold quite a bit but Bitcoin and crude not a whole lot lot of Wall Street analysts still worried about demand around the corner Goldman Sachs has given out their 12-month forecast for oil to likely stay around 70 to 85 kind of what I've been saying as well kind of hard to see it trading outside that range anytime soon however we always get a surprise markets never trade sideways forever and the US military is continuing they're build up in the Middle East largest presence we've ever seen US Navy assets doesn't even include all the fighter jets moved in to across their bases in the region either US military is pretty much ready for a fullscale regional war in the Middle East and like I said it's a bit curious timing isn't it just 2 months out from a federal election with some people maybe seeing a closing window of opportunity and no surprise to see foreign countries like China continually buy up more gold and silver so China's net gold Imports via Hong Kong Rising about 177% from the previous month and even though we've been seeing a lot of these headlines of central banks accumulating gold they're by no means near a peak of the share of gold gold they hold in their reserves in fact it's well off from pride of Richard Nixon taking the US dollar off the gold standard in 1971 central banks held most of their reserves in Gold back then above 60% we've just turned off lows the last couple of years ago and still only sitting around 12% some countries out there have actually said they want to get 20 30% or even more of their reserves back into gold so there's still plenty more buying to be done and it's not just gold other Commodities you guys know I like uranium largest producer the national Atomic company kazatomprom which supplies the world 40% of uranium slashed its 2025 production plans tightening Global Supply and this is expected to drive uranium prices up at a time when the world's coming back to it especially Europe being over reliant on Russia for their energy have turned their back on nuclear especially after Fukushima in Japan 2011 however Japan learned from their mistake in building a nuclear power plant next to the ocean that was vulnerable to a Title Wave from an earthquake now got Switzerland said they're open to building new nuclear power stations in the long term given new geopolitical uncertainties climate Target and population growth boosting the demand for electricity so for those you don't know nuclear energy when done right is the most efficient clean minimum input maximum output energy there is on the planet there's nothing quite like it in fact if you study the Big Bang Theory uranium was a big part of how life evolved from a uranium Gea and so my bullish thesis on uranium is the world's coming back to it and could come back to it in the biggest way ever in the coming years and we have been seen signs of the chart of some accumulation in the uranium ETF big volume green candles and IFA one remain bullish longterm on uranium we also got Bitcoin Slipping Bitcoin slipping of late below $60,000 a coin bumping up and down bit of a political football at the moment did look like it was doing really well but again there's been some speculation and rumors that the Biden Administration is offloading a lot of their confiscated Bitcoin just like they're doing with oil trying to keep some overhead pressure on the market and it's going to be interesting to see how it trades going into the election and out of it especially if we see a trump win I would expect Bitcoin to trade up to $100,000 a coin pretty short order given that h and vice president JD Vance are really Pro crypto and pro Bitcoin also got bricks Nations intent on using crypto as well for international transaction and this is a big threat to the US dollar that is unless the US leads on cryptocurrency which could very well be the case as well and there's a look at Bitcoin on the chart just kind of trading really thick and sideways here $59,000 a coin appear to have really found support on 5th of August was a big dip buy but just struggling to get back to all-time high around $73,000 a coin and like I said this will be another interesting Market to watch going into the federal election Market Summary just looking at the economic calendar today wasn't a whole lot out tomorrow we get some cpis from Germany along with GDP growth data from the state and then going into Friday we get a look at inflation coming out of the Euro Zone along with GDP coming out of Canada PC inflation data on Friday could get the markets moving core PC price index expected to have increased 2.7% year-over-year and fed fund Futures still pricing in about 63% chance the FED will cut rates by 25 basis points next month but just just getting back to the biggest story of the day Nvidia and how we're trading after hours coming back down to the support Zone to draw a little bit of a box in there around5 going up to 116 Market's trying to find support here like I said this could be a good risk reward dip buy as maybe it only needs a few points for a stop loss and we could actually get a bounce off here because like I said they did beat on numbers they did raise their guidance they did announce a new $50 billion share buyback program and we're holding Just Around Here 11640 right around the 50-day vwap kind of where the options Market priced it may go so most likely we're going to gap down tomorrow around this level but I'll be really looking to see whether it gets supported we may fake out to 110 or lower to a dip buy create a tail and Hammer formation it's going to be really interesting for NVIDIA and pretty much the semiconductor sector and the NASDAQ Market as a whole see whether Nvidia can hold here and who knows it's very possible it comes down and tests $100 over the coming days week or two and that'll really be the level kind of a psychological Point as well $100 a share if that gets lost then it's really not looking good for semis or the NASDAQ either however like I said I wouldn't rule it out just yet just based on the numbers and expected capex spend from their biggest customers story seems to be intact for now we'll just have to wait to see how the market trades tomorrow in the next few days but that pretty much wraps it up today thanks very much for tuning in with me hope I didn't offend too many people with my political opinion but I'll be back to being neutral tomorrow I just had to blow off a bit of hot air after being disappointed from the Biden Administration when it comes to the topic of cannabis and him failing to keep his campaign promise however as investors we'll continue to hang in there and inevitably one government bound to do the right thing thanks very much for sticking with click capital and I look forward to breaking it all down again for you guys tomorrow once we get the regular Market session reaction to Nvidia shares right now things are looking a little soft and I'll see you again tomorrow cheers