🚨 Brandon Aiyuk’s Mega Deal with 49ers! 💰 Fantasy Impact/Reaction! | 2024 Fantasy Football Advice

[Music] what's up everybody welcome to this bonus podcast fantasy football today it's Adam and Dave Richard here and we've got Randon auk agreeing to a fouryear $120 million extension last year auk was wide receiver 16 per game in full PPR the year before that he was wide receiver 25 per game in full PPR will he be a top 16 wide receiver in draft this weekend now that he is signed let's bring in Dave here as we welcome you to Fantasy Football Today presented by bet MGM the sports book born in Vegas okay where was Brandon auk before this announcement and will you be moving him Brandon auk was a late fourth round pick because we were starting to get seriously nervous about him not being a part of the 49ers to begin the start of the season but cooler heads prevailed he got his contract I would assume he'll be back at practice on Friday and he's got a little bit more than a week to get ready for week one against the Jets okay and so like I said he was wide receiver 16 per game last year and that was with an incredible season now I will say this there were two games that he left early with injuries he played 53% of the snaps in week two he played 38% of the snaps in week 18 if you take those games out he averaged more than 17 fantasy points per game in PPR more than 14 almost 15 per game in half PPR if you take out the two games he left early I don't think week G him was an injury just he left it early uh Brandon auk was basically like the number six receiver based on those points per game he was incredible but the the thing that stands out is that two straight Seasons he's been on Pace for 112 or 114 targets so I mean that's the thing right like look at what he did with those targets essentially the same amount of targets two straight years Dave in 2022 he's a borderline number two wide receiver with 78 catches and eight touchdowns in 2023 he's almost the number one receiver per game with 82 catches and eight touchdowns so again if you're not following I know it's a lot of numbers two straight years on Pace this is not his this is not his stats this is 17 game Pace on Pace for eight touchdowns on Pace for right around 80 catches but in 2022 he was on Pace for 1100 yards in 2023 1,430 9 yards so you know if he stays at 115 targets per 17 games Dave I think there's some regression coming here so I so did you say where he is in the rankings I did not say that yet okay so do will he be a top 20 wide receiver for you yes top 15 I am actually working through it right now and he is barely inside my top 15 auk or Debo Samuel Debo Samuel in all formats yes auk or George Pickin auk I'm just saying because they we thought maybe they because they could have been teammates and all that y but I don't think it's so obvious whenever you're talking about a guy who do you think he'll he'll he'll break 115 targets anything's possible between him as an ascending player uh with with two team Ates as great as Debo is and KD they're older guys and so it is possible that he could get to that number but I don't think he's going to be anywhere near like where the elite wide receivers are yeah those guys are getting like 150 targets a year right I don't think he's getting 1 15 one5 makes a lot more sense one 120 wouldn't surprise me either listen he's good why wouldn't the 49ers try and use him even more and if they're going to be more competitive games then maybe they will but that to me that's that's the biggest thing that holds me back there were 12 games last year where he was playing with Debo and KD he actually averaged more PPR points per game in those games than he did on the season overall and at no point can we find you know other than maybe like cherry picking games here and there he was averaging around six and a half targets per game so we want that Target volume to go up there's no guarantee that it will that caps is ceing he doesn't get the rushing production that Debo Samuel gets all right and Debo could get the same amount of targets that caps his ceiling yeah both their ceilings are kind of C but they're both really really good they can both average as they did last year more than 16 PPR points per game 12.8 yards per Target that is the most I'm going back now and looking that is the highest for a minimum of 50 targets since Tyler Lockett in 2018 when he had 13.8 yards per Target and just to give you a reference he's never Tyler lockett's been at 11 yards per Target one other year and never more than 9.6 so so just just to keep in mind if you don't think the targets are going up for Brandon iuk just there is some regression coming in the yardage without question there's just no way he's getting 12.8 yards per Target hopefully he gets more targets now are you moving Debo Samuel down are you moving George KD down I did not move KD down I I don't think I will because I just don't love the tight ends that I have behind George KD and Debo's down a little bit for me um but still on the border of being a two3 pick and auk is literally gonna go right after that can I can I just be bold here yeah hit me I I will take George pickings over Brandon auk wow I will take Mal neighbors over Brandon iuk I will take I would in non PPR DK metat oh maybe in full PPR too man maybe which one Pickins no neighbors neighbors is more of a PPR guy to me I think touchdown be hard um I don't know I I want you to listen to Dave you can listen to me if you want Dave well I'm still marinating on all this anyway it's not like I've done I've put in I I've literally done like I did research on iuk and Debo from earlier in the off season and now just reranking them and like just like literally you said saying neighbors are auk yeah it's it's kind of hard to put him ahead of of iuk is great and he is Neighbors is expected to be great too maybe auk is the safer pick because we've seen him do it before but last year was The Big Year for Brandon iuk and before last year I mean just over the course of a season it wasn't as good without somebody being hurt you know in full PPR he's going to have trouble hitting 90 catches I think all this changes if he gets a big Target boost just why would he you know they've got there's no reason why they should go away from Debo or away from KD or away from mcaffrey they've got a great team so it's a Target crunch but uh yeah look I let's see what what everybody has to say about tomorrow when we marinate I just think that I'm expecting so much regression from Brandon iuk and I guess it just wouldn't shock me if he was more like wide receiver 22 or something you know he was what I say 25 per game in 2022 um again like I think you have to bake in what he did last year is a huge part of what the expectations are I don't think last year was a oneand done type thing for iuk I don't think he's about to regress to 12 or 13 PPR points per game no no when what was he last year over 16 yeah no but yeah like uh 15 would be a pretty big if he was at 15 that'd be a pretty big job well 16.2 overall 17.1 with Debo and KD which is totally weird like why why would it be higher with those guys would it be higher without those guys but it it was what it was and then in 2022 it was 13.4 2021 9.5 so I I maybe it does make sense if you think that he's not going to get the yardage that he got last year and the same Target volume I I would pencil him in for the same Target volume right that's the thing because how like and again like how do you give that guy only five targets like in week one against the Jets when he didn't practice much that I get like that's going to be a Debo week that could be a KD week but it's not going to I'd be surprised if auk went off and also he's he's more of a man beater anyway he's terrific player I he is a terrific player it's kind of yeah it's just he's like Nico Collins they both had these ridiculously efficient seasons and they both have a lot of Target competition so that's the decision you have to make when you get into round three and so which team is going to throw more well the the Tex the Texans will throw more nobody's going to throw more efficiently than the Niners most likely although I will say those two teams I think were one and two in yards per attempt last year the Dolphins were top three as well those were the top three teams you know that's the thing you know about the Niners that those guys they may not get a lot of targets they're going to do a lot with it uh but if you're a person who prefers Target volume then you just have to think about that with Brandon iuk uh Brock pie thoughts tempted to move him back into my top 12 but at 12 okay over Tua over Caleb Williams I think I'm G to make that move not gonna put him over definitely not over Jordan love not over Dak not over Jaden Daniels you know there's still a huge Domino to fall still and this is a crucial key here is that if there's no Trent Williams the offense just isn't it it's running at 80% not 100% nah that's too steep 82.6% not 100% we have 373 people watching here I'm not putting an actual poll up but I'm just asking the chat because I want to see how if if if I'm totally way off base here you're trying to see something well ADP is gonna say that I'm way off base but I want to know Pickins or iuk who does the chat like so I asked I asked that iuk or Pickins and honestly the first four answers are all Pickins interesting no sorry four out of five five four out of five uh somebody wants to know auk or t Higgins I'm not big on T Higgins I will take auk okay we've got now four Pickins three auk all right so I'm surprised if it's close listen five Pickins isn't he he was efficient at the end of the year with Mason Rudolph I don't know if he'll find that efficiency again at all in 2024 Pickins I'm gonna put a poll up and we will we will we'll see what the results are tomorrow on fantasy football today thanks everybody for watching this bonus podcast we'll talk to you later