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we are 60 days out from the presidential election and popular pollster Nate silver has shared his latest prediction silver the founder of 538 who now runs the silver bulletin believes Trump is electorally favored to win the election he wrote quote the forecast is still in toss-up range but Trump's chances of winning are His Highest since July 30th silver has Trump's chances of winning the Electoral College at 58% with Harris at 41% he cited several reasons for the growing Gap he wrote on x quote in addition to Pennsylvania Michigan has become something of an issue for Harris National polls and polls of other swing States mostly decent for Harris but erosion in Pennsylvania and Michigan hurts a lot in the model silver doubled down on Harris's State polling problem and said quote setting the convention boun stuff aside there just hazard been much positive State polling data entering the system for Harris lately silver added that he would quote buy the bull case for Harris a bit more if she hadn't rehired so many of the Biden people he also blamed Harris's chances on a lack of democratic enthusiasm a new yugov poll shows Republicans have taken back a narrow lead of voter enthusiasm at 60% compared to Democrats 59% silver wrote quote there was a surge of enthusiasm for Harris post Biden Dropout but that might have happened no matter what thought the convention speech was good but bypassing Shapiro beginning to look bad and they haven't really found a second gear After hot brat summer the pollster also said the chance of an electoral college popular vote split working against teris has risen to almost 18% so Jessica I know you're a big Vibes gal is Nate silver right has hot brat summer worn off I think it hot brat summer just turned to fall that's all that happened um Charlie XCX posted that Brad summer is over KLA Harris is still getting like a lot of attention on the internet from young people but I think among you know Progressive members of the left people who are definitely you know making a decision based on her stance on Gaza those voters that were hopeful I don't think are as hopeful as they used to be that KLA Harris can win them over before you know Election Day November there I do see the data that Nate silver puts out and I will say this is the same model uh that did predict Hillary Clinton in 2016 he made some adjustments to that model because of covid he believed that there were certain weights that needed to be added certain factors considered for covid and he said it was essentially the same model aside for those adjustment factors then with this model we have now in in 2024 it's essentially the same model he says he just took away the covid factors so we're still rocking with the same old model we had in 2016 favoring Hill Hillary so I would just take anything Nate silver says with a grain of salt the model essentially is a compilation of polling plus some other factors that they made up I think someone you know throwing spaghetti on the wall and seeing what sticks and tallying the numbers and saying you know the spaghetti on this wall is Trump the spy on that wall as Harris has just a good a chance of predicting right now with what we're seeing Amber yeah I will say he changed the model a little bit more than he previously did between 2016 and 2020 when he left 538 although he retained the IP for the model he did make more adjustments before launching the silver bulletin but just looking at the polls that have come out this past week it does suggest that things are not looking super great for KLA Harris if you look at the real the real clear politics average for example Trump is actually performing the best he has of any election cycle between 2016 2020 and 2024 um in Michigan a very well-respected local poll has the race there effectively tied you have uh pretty much every National poll within the margin of error the only one that has Harris in the lead in the swing States is the morning console poll that came out this week and I'm sorry but if anyone thinks that KLA Harris is up eight points in Wisconsin then I have a bridge to sell you but for the most part it's very clear that this race is incredible L tight I don't think you can give the edge to either candidate at this point except for the fact that a tie is usually good for Republicans just due to overs surveying of Democrats and the fact that Republicans don't typically feel as comfortable answering polls yeah I will say it's it's Nate Silver's exact words that that the model in 2020 just added in some covid factors and that the model now took away the covid predictor Factor so if he's made other changes he should include those in his model descriptions but I think you know what's going on this time around is you've got Donald Trump who had thought he would end up running against Biden now he's had to Pivot his campaign to run against Harris and it seems like he wasn't ready for it he spoke before uh the New York economic club and was asked a bunch of questions about you know what the fiscal deficit we can predict with his changes to tariffs and tax policies uh he didn't have any estimate he talked about Biden's deficit being two trillion when he added seven trillion uh to the public debt and so this idea that uh Donald Trump is better on the economy when he can't even hold a conversation with these guys I think was not so good the way he's wavered on issues like abortion the way he's gone back and said in response to all of the IVF criticism that somehow he's for free public health care when it comes to IVF I think he's he's scrambling a little bit and if that's any indicator of how the next few weeks will go I don't think that that bodess well for Trump I think the Democrats would be smart to just ensure that those clips of him and these youo meetings doing this press that those clips get posted on the internet they don't really have to do a ton of anti-trump messaging because I think that benefits him he runs on the establishment hates me I think they just need to make sure people listen to him when he's talking and and listen to him contradict himself well he hasn't wavered on abortion he's actually been really consistent on it since he first ran for the president presidency in 2016 he has said that he is someone who considers himself pro-life but supports reasonable restrictions and exceptions for rape and incest now he has said that he supports the state's deciding which you know that doesn't mean his personal position has changed on it um and he even said before the overturning of roie Wade that he hopes the issue goes back to the state so I think the idea that he's wavered on abortion or flip-flopped on it is sort of a creation from the left and then on the economics question I would just say that I highly doubt that KLA Harris would be able to talk about how much her plan is going to increase the deficit considering she hasn't even posted a plan on her website yet she hasn't talked in any policy detail on any of her speeches for the past month and a half two months about what exactly it is she's going to do she's stolen two of her proposals from Trump including no taxes on tips and increasing the child tax credit to $6,000 and then she has this hairbrained price price control scheme on groceries which is going to lead to a scarcity problem for families I think you know when it comes to the economy even if you have issue with the way that Trump explained it it's just a fact that the economy was better under Trump than it is now yeah I think you know it matters to people what Trump says he's voting in Florida last week he said he planned to vote no on a ballot measure to enshrine abortion rights in the Florida Constitution uh you know he he publicly said that he supported the six week ban then he said he was Voting against it I he say he supported the six then we had 10 years ago he said that uh you know he was pro-life and then when he ran in 2016 you know he he catered to evangelicals he said we've we've got to ensure that pro-life Justices are appointed to the court and and row is overturned and so yeah he he caused a panic by implying to a lot of people that his personal no vote meant if he was president he might overturn Florida's six week ban then he said he would not do that and so yeah I I think the last two weeks have been a lot of flip-flopping at least that's what the media is reporting when you put these statements next to each other I don't know if his internal beliefs on abortion are the same but publicly certainly it seems like they've been going back and forth a bit well he he never said that he was supportive of Florida six we ban he was against it from the time that it was moving through the state legislature and then his vote against against the amendment is because the amendment would basically prevent any restrictions on abortion so his personal feeling is that he would like to see a 15we restriction but he said repeatedly he also thinks that 6 weeks is too early so that's what he's been saying for the past year or so I don't know where the media reports are coming from that he's flip-flopped I would suggest that those are inaccurate uh we're going to continue to cover this of course here on Rising we'll be back with more after this [Music]