before we get into the video I just wanted to mention how well my last video did in my last couple ones and just remind people that I'm on track to hit 1 th000 subscribers by the end of the month my channel usually doesn't get get this much attention but I just want to thank everyone who is subscribing and uh yeah just enjoy the video I like replying to all the comments and just interacting with people so the more people that come here and subscribe means that we'll have less people not coming back because you see right here 95% people not subscribed 5% are and really that just means only only 5% of people are have a chance at coming back so I don't know just thank you uh enjoy the video hello today September 12th and today I'm gonna be going over my presidential election predictions last time I made my video was a couple days ago and uh I've changed a couple things since then in pretty much instantly after uh a couple state two State calls I've changed and a couple characterizations I'd like to talk about but uh first of all if you're new I got every state in 2020 correctly so if you want to learn about that I'm going to link that at the top of the description below because I figure that's kind of like the most interesting thing I've done on this channel I've in a whole video explaining about it but yeah uh so I'm going to go over how I do my characterizations and then I'm going to get quicker into it so you see these uh colors on North and South Dakota that means safe red which mean 15 points or more so if Trump uh wins North and South Dakota 60% to 40% that's a 20 point victory in each of the states and that would be a uh safe Republican state but if he wins at 55 to 45 that's 10 points which falls into my likely margin my likely margin would be plus 7 to 14.9% so uh in 20 uh in 2020 Kansas was a 14.9% state so I put that as likely same with Nebraska's first district and Ohio was at eight points they are all under the same categorization in 2020 and with lean States it's 2 to 6.9% and with tilt States anything that under 2% which I think better categorizes the maps uh better than some of the other guys so I'm adding a couple I'm adding two new safe blue states to the map so Washington California New York Maryland M uh Massachusetts Connecticut Rhode Island Vermont Maine's First District DC in Hawaii uh and then last time I added Colorado to the 15o margin and uh for those interested I did look at the August registration number if you need me to provide a link to them because I don't have all the sources yet someone said in my in the comments I should show the polls that I'm going off of and the problem is I don't just go off a poll so I don't like to do that I don't like to go oh this poll shows Harris up three because the next one might show Trump up three so I don't know but that's why it's called a prediction and a lot of people don't seem to understand that but what I'm going to do today is I'm going to add two new safe States Oregon and Delaware voter registration numbers in Oregon Colorado and Delaware continue to prove me wrong wrong about the about how those two states were specifically Oregon and Delaware have been trending I think Colorado might actually vote to the left of Delaware which I might which I will find very interesting same with uh New Jersey which I is the only usually oh also Illinois sorry sorry Illinois is a safe Blue State uh but also I'm putting New Jersey in the likely Democrat at column again it's the only uh usually safe blue state that I'm keeping in the like call them but I will don't be surprised if I change it at any point there is a lot of Independence registering in New Jersey throughout August those numbers came out uh and I and I looked at those today uh obviously not for every state but a lot of States report on it like Pennsylvania where showed pretty much no change Republicans gained G uh Republicans gained ground in Pennsylvania directly but there's a lot of Independence and of Harris wi's Independence then what does that even mean at that point because it might just even out and that's why why I did that uh Democrats are only gaining ground in a couple States and one of those I found pretty interesting is Utah and even though that is true I am going to keep Utah as a safe R state for now because I don't believe it's going to shift a full six points seven points uh from its 20.5% margin in 2020 so these other safe uh red States Idaho Wyoming Montana North Dakota South Dakota Oklahoma Arkansas Louisiana Mississippi Alabama Tennessee Kentucky West Virginia Indiana Missouri Nebraska at large in Nebraska's Third District oh Nebraska is also one of the only other states that Democrats are gaining ground in as well uh and any other safe Republican states I don't think so yeah no there's no other safe Republican states here uh I am going to Mark uh some of the almost basic basically safe Republican states as well Nebraska's First District in Kansas at likely I might add a characterization that means basically safe so a darker version of likely but like better than safe so people can better understand cuz I obviously don't think Kansas is going to be as competitive as Ohio which might be like a seven to 10o Trump win I don't know obviously I don't know but there is a there's probably better ways to do the margins than I actually do but yeah the rest of the likely Republican states Ohio Iowa usually pretty likely I'm going to say South Carolina I did move Florida down the lean last time but I'm going to move it back to likely you know I figured I should just double down all my likeliness of Florida probably like 8% of a trump win I again Trump uh Republicans heavy outdoing Democrats in Florida there's almost no way the Republicans can lose Florida unless he's like says the N word or something but yeah he he really you know I how did I bring this up I I I am going to bring this up closer uh even more but he he messed up that debate wow it was it was bad he messed up that debate like he just had to act normal and not do anything crazy or say anything ridiculous and he would have been fine but he did uh so yeah this is going to be a fun video I'm putting Alaska at likely red as well New Mexico and Virginia New Hampshire and Main at large go in the second tier of likele as well basically almost certainly going to Harris but not quite at that margin I think Harris might win New Mexico by like 76% uh not 76 7 or 6% % she's probably going to win Virginia she's actually starting to get bigger leads in Virginia like double digit leads which is something I've been waiting for as a Democrat to see and obviously I don't know how much it's actually shifting but she's doing so much better uh with turnout than Biden was going to get so as of right now that's kind of the big thing they need to focus on in like rural Virginia rural Pennsylvania uh I'm also going to give uh Minnesota the likely Democratic column and I we adding a new likely Democratic State uh not state but thing today and that's Nebraska second district she whooped Trump so bad in that debate that I that I I genuinely think she's going to win Nebraska's second district by like 9% because I mean they're not only are they very influential because they're such a smaller group of people but I just think that they had such a strong shift from 2016 to 2020 that she could even win it by like 14% she's not going to probably and again it's really hard to say that when Don Bacon is the incumbent but we'll see he could he's in danger of losing that seat more than he was in 2022 so again like I just said we'll see uh but yeah those are the last of the likely states that I'm adding to this so the lean parts that I'm going to add uh uh Texas lean and Main second district lean they shouldn't come to Crazy surprises for anyone if you're at all surprised by those cat organizations you're probably a Democrat wondering why main second district is so red uh as opposed to Harris up here five six points and I only say that because of 2020 I I'm so terrified of that polling mistake happening again like I did say in the beginning of the video I did get every state right in 2020 but technically main second district I did not get that specific electoral vote right thankfully I got all 50 states right in general so I can still say that and still say I got every state right but main second district stomped me and I think it's just because it's so hard to pull a specific District especially when there's that much of a vote split between golden and uh Trump there's such a big split there's a lot of trump golden voters I don't exactly know why but there is same with new North Carolina which I'm putting at tilt Republican so I did give that blue last time and then right after the video day after I saw those ballot returns those B uh those ballot requests ement uh women might be up a little bit from 2022 and 2020 but black voters are down a lot in North Carolina that is like the second most that is the most important demographic to win as a democrat in North Carolina is to dominate the black vote and when Trump's already doing better with the black vote in general and polling and seeing how blacks are viewing of trump he's already doing like Five Points better than 2020 so even if Harris goes from 90 to 85 she's probably going to lose North Carolina by like 3% I still think it's going to be an extremely close race and I think the fact that women are turning out a lot more this year is going to overshadow uh a very very minuscule amount of black vote loss that is nothing to panic about for Democrats I see if it can see if it continues into 2028 then yes I would be terrified uh especially in Georgia but I am giving Georgia to kamla Harris again uh there's no I I can't like specifically recite every exact reason why I just as of right now I think Harris is going to get State Boost from this she's not going to get a national Boost from this but I think she's going to get voter boosts which in turn is going to affect some of these really really really close States like Georgia but I'm also by the way I'm also keeping in mind with North Carolina and other states where Democrats are doing worse in ballot requests that there's also going to be more Democrats are now in person than in 2020 that is very very obvious there is more Democrats who are coming out in 2020 and chances are most of the Republicans who didn't vote uh most of the Republicans who didn't vote by mail in 2020 2022 are probably not going to do it this year either so that's why and yeah you can obviously see how down mail and ballots are so a lot there is going to be Democrats who go in person covid was a big factor on Democrats just mailing ma mailing in and the only reason Republicans didn't do it at a high level was because they don't believe in mailing it's ridic I I it's crazy that that that he's like no don't vote uh don't vote mail in ballots and then cries about the mail of Dallas being Democrat I I don't know but yeah I'm giving Georgia to kamla Harris and I was going to Mark usually at this point I Mark another red state but uh you know what Wisconsin Michigan those are lean blue States right now there was a kind of a scary poll today where Harris was down one in in in Michigan but I think it was by signal but then an like an hour later it was another one oh she's up one in Michigan and slotkin's up one and un like slotkin's up by more than one so I feel a lot more confident about uh like even just like I said in 2022 past videos that those polls were a lot more accurate so I think if you're seeing a close race in Michigan in the polls it's probably going to be a close race in person or in real life it's not going to be like oh if it's a close race in the polls Trump's going to win by five or six points that's not really how it's going to work this year and if it does I stand corrected I do believe I I put more I put like 5% more thought into the polls this year but like I like I like to see in the polls most significantly is is constant is consistency cuz usually if it's a shaky win I'm going to give it to Trump and usually he's been uh handling the last couple leads steady in Arizona but I think Harris is that Arizona is one of those states where Harris is going to win the independence Independents are going to be very even this year there's no clear winner of the independence Harris could win it by five Trump could win it by five or they could split dead even it doesn't really matter it just matters how they're voting in the swing States and I think when you look at Arizona they're going to vote for Harris Arizona independ do not like Trump that is a known fact and she does better with uh younger Independents especially where they are splitting for her way better so especially in Maricopa County Phoenix where there's a lot uh where there's a lot of registration even Republicans in AR like Arizona is a special scenario for Harris and Democrats because that's not really a state like 10 years ago you really you could really see them winning uh at at consistently as they have since 2018 but Trump's really just switched the tone and moved them so far the right that Democrats are starting to look moderate so I'm giving her Arizona I haven't given her Arizona I believe since mid August or something like that where she did have a pretty consistent lead for a while and then she just kept going down and down and down they don't like Tim Walls I don't know but I am giving Arizona to her while I'm also giving Nevada to her Rosen is carrying this for Harris rosen's up like double digits in the last like five blls rosen's dominating I don't know why maybe people started okay I can't say that I was going to insult Sam Brown obviously like I was going to insult him for what he looks but like I know he has a burn I don't know exactly what happened but I think it was through service so I decided not to say anything uh I was going to make a joke my bad but Sam Brown uh he's not a good candidate in general so Rosen just carrying this absolutely and moving Harris to five and sixo leads in Nevada where previously You' see Trump up consistently by that same amount where I was so confident that he would win Nevada that's that's when I started to realize there was almost no way that Harris could Harris or Biden could win because even because if she loses Pennsylvania then she other needs Georgia Nevada or North Carolina Nevada or North Carolina jorgia but that's not likely so she would pretty much need Nevada in every scenario where she loses Pennsylvania if she wants to win this election luckily for her in the scenario she doesn't even need Pennsylvania Trump could just Trump could just win P Sylvania by 10 points here he's not going to he's not going to win it by 10 points let's be honest but he could hypothetically and I am pretty close to giving Pennsylvania a lean this seems like a mem Oz kind of scenario to where it looked like he was going to win closer up uh to the race or he was actually gaining and then it just turned out guess what didn't matter there was like there was already so much support behind Federman that the polling momentum shifts doesn't matter I think a lot of the people I think a little you're going to see a lot of the poll shift towards the end as well uh towards WS the election because a lot of the people that already voted are not going to be taking polls anymore I feel like through mail and ballot I don't actually I probably shouldn't say that because that did not happen in any of the last two elections that's a weird take uh ignore that part I don't know why I said that but I I am going to give Harris a you know 6% lead in or 3% lead in Pennsylvania it is the closest state I think by far and if she does win Georgia or Arizona those could also be very very close uh frankly if I'm a Democrat this is the same map as 2020 I'm happy with this this kind of map means that you probably won the house as well uh be happy Democrats if this is your map be ecstatic because not only do you get to uh like okay whatever I'm not I can't talk I I don't need to make a case for her right now Democrats know why they'd be happy it's because she won or whatever but yeah he destroyed himself at the debate uh kept lying about like the do the dogs and cats thing like that's not happening in the US and that's the whole point like I saw like people like oh guess what it really is happening here's proof and it's people in the Netherlands like okay that's in the Netherlands and they're like oh it's a cultural thing no you're just you're just being racist pretty much uh because that is not a general thing that all Haitians do at all I don't know where this is okay I don't need to argue I need to keep this behind certain time frames I don't know thank you for watching I hope some people kind of like this prediction but I hope it's not too boring I know this is the first time I've had this exact map this first time I've had this 2020 repeat map and I hate repeat Maps because they're so boring and you'd think something would change at least last time I switched to Arizona with North Carolina but you think I don't know we'll see maybe she'll make a play in Texas probably not I don't know I think it'd be pretty interesting if she wins like main second district cuz that'd be funny oh my God there's also a scenario where people think that she could get 269 and lose but if she actually does win main second district then that doesn't happen I don't know I don't know I'm going to do another scenarios thing because I think I have a lot of better ideas in the scenarios from now on thanks everyone for watching goodbye