all right we might be flipping green here into the last 10 minutes stocks fighting for it lizan Saunders joins us for the big picture discussion Chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab good afternoon lazan good afternoon Oliver all right so Market's trying to repair itself here obviously not a great start to the week to the month though uh give me kind of your Takeaway on the last 48 hours how we're doing so far yeah you know yesterday there was not a lot of specific news that you could point to to Define why the market was as weak as it was you know maybe some of it was just the psychology of heading into sept there seem to be an outsized uh focus on a number of reports on you know the the September being the worst month and I I just think that that may have been a contributing factor to okay let's just take some profits um especially after the kind of v-shaped rally we saw off the uh August 5th low when you look at uh the data to your point yesterday we didn't have much manufacturing was light but you know we're kind of used to seeing that uh jolts coming in a little bit lower than what we're used to seeing what' you think about that number this morning yeah jolts was lower we're under 8 million we're back to pre pandemic levels uh to be perfectly honest Oliver I'm not a big fan of the the jolts data the the response rate is down by about 50% over the last decade or so just the nature of how jobs are are posted and essentially the free cost of those postings I'm not sure that's all that robust and then the the metric that it's comped to which is number of unemployed so openings relative to the number of unemployed one could argue that the pool of available labor for job openings is not just people who are not currently working it's people that have a job that might be looking for a different job another job so I I just don't know how robust that data is anymore not to mention the fact that it lags a month relative to the other labor market data but if you want to use it as a measure of Labor Market tightness clearly things have loosened up relative to when we were looking at 12 million uh job openings relative to the sub eight where we are right now so on the margin it's certainly a looser story fair enough uh point taken uh bonds rallying though I got the 10-year yield below 375 uh it seems like our sensitivity levels are high then if we're kind of going for a subpar number and you know running with like bonds are here yeah so I I think the you know the weakness in bond yields is not because inflation is imploding here but because of weakness that has started to become a bit more acute in terms of economic data the most recent as an example being the ISM Manufacturing Index which pretty much across the board was uh weak and and even within that you know a a kind of a troubling uptick in prices paid which was a little bit odd given what we've seen in terms of weaker commodity prices so I I I think this um pretty steady stream of at least slightly weaker economic news save for maybe some of the consumption data maybe uh sort of elevates the spotlight on the upcoming jobs report even more with the with the ism weaker uh reading uh especially in the leading components like new orders you did see a bit of a tick up in probabilities around 50 basis points by the FED not that they key off ISM but you know every new data point we sort of add to the stack uh in the in the you know parlor game of trying to figure out whether the fed's going to go 25 or 50 100% that means tomorrow uh Services I mean they've gota come in solid right like that's our kind of one hope that that's still U you know keeping the ship going straight not only that but I would I would say pay more attention to the employment component of ism Services relative to just the the headline reading and whether it's above or below 50 I think it's those employment components and and I would say the same thing about the upcoming um nhb data or nfib data I mean out of small businesses cuz small businesses are the biggest net job creators right now so I think all of the labor market data is incredibly important right now uh not just the uh the upcoming BLS report uh lazan what do you think we could go how I think the right way to phrase this because we're basically a coin flip right now for the 50 basis point odds we've got this one big print and then we'll have a few other residual numbers obviously before the meeting but like how much definition do you think fed funds Futures will have say 3 days out from the FED meeting like are we going to go could we be going into that meeting with like coin flip 2550 are we going to have the first meeting in a while where we don't know what's going to happen well we've got CPI PPI and jobs so those are three very important data points between now and the September meeting and given that those probabilities adjust on a minute-to-minute basis based on fed fund Futures we've seen how quick expectations can shift just just in the last 24 hours from yesterday to today you saw about a 5 percentage Point uh shift up in terms of expectations for 50 down in terms of expectations for 25 so yeah I think the the the needle could move a lot um between now and uh what is it September 18th I think okay great stuff thanks very much LAN