ALL Presidential Debate Bets - Polymarket - Trump vs. Harris

Will trump say a slur during the debate that's the question that we're all wondering no I'm kidding apparently the question that I'm wondering people are what's up guys I'm Eddie AKA dancing Eddie and this is Lex and uh we're gonna go through some of the some of the questions or points that are gonna be said tonight and try and see like what would we bet on them the first one is whether or not Trump's gonna say a slur I got to check what the rules are hold on yes because I was gonna say I wouldn't be my namesake if I didn't have a vocabulary BAS question here what is a slur really well I mean it says it says yes if Donald Trump uses a slur targeting race ethnicity religion gender sexuality or disabilities at least once but otherwise it must okay for this Market to resolve to yes Trump must clearly be using the term in reference to the derogatory meaning of a word in question if Trump says I ate too many crackers this would not qualify now what if he called a Puerto Rican a Puerto Rican you know what man I'm not I'm not addressing any of these allegations I just think that this is hilarious the rules the specifics on the rules around interesting I understand uh Will trump say a slur I would say like basically 0% I think of the fact that it's at 133% though is hilarious so one and eight God dang anyway we'll move on from there has he ever said a slur in a debate before no no I no I don't believe he has let's start at the top abortion I say he they have 82% chance right so the most recent talk that abortion was not brought up now this was I have this one marked on my bingo card for Trump to say so this was Trump speaks at Fraternal Order of Police meeting now that would make sense for him to not say Trump rally him at Wisconsin he said abortion twice two times I would say that there's like a fair possibility that abortion doesn't get mentioned now at 80% that's pretty crazy I I I would I would be hard pressed to bet against abortion being mentioned by Trump especially especially because they're probably going to ask like ABC left leaning media publication probably is going to ask some question about abortion to Trump because they're hoping you know for an answer there so they're probably going to bring it up so I would probably bet yes on this but given the 82% chance and given the the likelihood I think I probably wouldn't bet too hard there's not enough jues to be squeezed for the risk that it's not mentioned or the risk that he finds some other way of talking about it like I don't think birth control or let's say like Reproductive Rights are going to be words that Trump says if he's talking about it he's probably saying abortion I just don't know how much he'll talk about it whereas with Cala I would be more likely to think that she wouldn't say the word abortion um especially because abortion might have some like negative con connotation whereas Reproductive Rights is a lot more you know like mellow so I you know as I'm talking myself through this I might bet I might bet yes you're really going on a marathon there you had quite a bit to say you talked yourself all the way through bet yes I might bet yes would you I think I would bet yes I mean to me it's it seems at least like 90% likely that he has to say that word at some point but okay like I said it's on my bingo card let's let's do a Sprint borders are was borders are said in this in this uh rally as well S I have no idea on this one no idea no well border yes I think that he's more likely to call her comrade Kam Kamala like if he's going to if he's going to go down the nicknaming which he probably will uh I would say it's more likely that it goes comrade Kamal Kamala rather than bordar uh fake news what do we think 59% chance You' think this should be higher it's not it does seem a little higher but I haven't been listening to him speak lately maybe that's a term that he's been trying to pull back on a little bit I don't know seven times in the most recent recent Wisconsin speech that seems like pretty they've taken away your free speech and the fake news threat is a threat to this country it's possible I would say 59% is low I would actually be more likely to bet on fake news at I would agree with that that seems low what did he say at the police meeting did he say fake news here and he said it uh three times he said it three times that this one Trump speaks at an event in Michigan here fake news he said it seven times I think that this is yeah he like hammer is this word 60% for fake news I would probably put that as like a Best Bet like there's a lot of money to be made on this I I I think that this one's have you considered searching the transcripts of previous debates is this a term he doesn't use in debates because I wonder this might be the kind of term that is vague and difficult to Define and might not play as well at a debate for those reasons news oh that's valid he didn't say fake news that's why it's only at 60% or whatever because yes he said says it whenever he speaks but fake news is one of those kind of terms that is to really nail down what it is and if you were gonna if you were going to try to adhere to the rules of intellectual honesty in a true debate fake news is the type of term you would want to avoid because you don't want the uh moderator asking you to Define fake news then what do you say well if it's liberal it's fake news I mean so I'd say Pro I you know what I might downgrade that from best bet I I would say like keep an eye on this because he likes to hammer on certain words like when he finds a word he likes he goes in and he says it over and over and obviously like he's found that with fake news and the last few weeks he's been saying it a lot but whether or not he's gonna say it tonight I don't know drill baby drill I would say probably not like probably not gonna say drill baby drill that's a Palin thing right well there's been he said it recently I believe but I I don't think I I don't think that it's like that strong it's got to be like we have to make we have to make oil and gas great you know we have to strengthen our economy but I don't I don't know if he's gonna be like drill baby drill like drill let's see drill in the comments Tell Eddie to do more of his Trump impression it's not bad it's it's actually not bad it really isn't bad it's definitely better than I could do it's gonna be great it's gonna be very great we're gonna drill that's called drill baby drill right drill baby drill platform shoes for everyone that's funny um I would say I would probably lean no but I wouldn't be shocked are we gonna go natural gas phras if you're campaigning somewhere that's friendly to more drilling yeah I I'd agree so i' I'd lean no i' lean no on this this one's the in most interesting one comrade comrade Kamala that is the most interesting bet of the night yes versus no that's did he say he said it last he's been like harping on this he really likes it he literally spoke about how much he likes to say it he said it eight times eight times and he's been harping on the fact that her father is a Marxist which is actually true I believe um which is like this is this is his tagline this is his thing I would be kind of shocked if in the first time that he gets to speak to her one onone in public she he refrains from calling her comrade Cala because if if I think if you bet yes on this and he says comrade Kamala you are doubling your money and it's just hilar I'm probably I would bet yes on this I would not bet no on this he he says it so much he hammers it you have an opinion on that or should I move on no I'm I'm a coin flip there I think he can move on Elon Musk I I would hammer the no like I don't know why he would say Elon Musk the only reason he's talking about Elon Musk is because Elon Musk is a massive supporter and is putting a lot of money into him but otherwise like I don't know I got nothing yeah I I would I would probably Hammer this no I don't know if I like a lot of the thing about this is also sizing your bets right like if you're going to be betting on a single what're what they're saying sizing it properly is important I would probably SI this I wouldn't size this but I would definitely lean no uh Epstein I mean there's no reason for Epstein to be brought up Maga three times does he even say it once that seems like again more of a term you would use to Pander to a non-hostile crowd or at least a non-neutral crowd can he say make America great again yes yeah he did he says it he so he says a lot of like make America but just not necessarily make America great again this is a risk I would say it I would say this is no for three plus times he only said it twice on a rally twice because he says a lot of make America X I think at 70% no I think this is good I think I would take the 70% no I might even put put it about on on this to know all I can say is pondering whether or not Donald Trump is going to say make America great again after 10 years of this that my eyes are glazing over a little bit on that one my friend alien five plus times okay so does it count if he is commenting on the recent fairly well-received alien Romulus franchise reboot four comments about like resident aliens and then one com about how one way we should make America great again supporting Ridley Scott yeah that would count he just needs to say the word alien you it would count then I think yes I am for I am for alien I I would say I'm not I would say no I say I think you'd more likely say immigrants are like illegal something whatever uh border 15 plus times I would hammer this is a yes to me how many times did he say it here border 22 times he said he said border at the last one 21 I know I don't think anyone's disagreeing with that it's just a matter of 15 times I would argue that he's going to say border almost twice as often to a non-hostile like campaign crowd that fully supports him as he will to a neutral crowd like a debate so if he said it 30 times to that crowd we might see 15 times at the debate so this this is hard to track it was said 37 times at the last debate but how many of those were both Biden saying it like these three right here at the bottom of the screen are Biden saying it it was asked by questions like on the you know by the stage whatever uh but definitely like I think if this was a 10 plus times it's it's a hammer yes at 15 it's definitely a bit of a push like I I I think that this is a lean to yes I might put money on this tampon everyone's favorite uh he's not talking to walls he might bring up walls that's the only time he he talks about it no matter what avoid this bet like this is not this is not your friend I like it I'm in agreement either way you're gonna feel dumb next either the way even though it's one of the most bet on it's one of the most bet on bets fraud $25,000 bet that's a that's a tough one I forget I don't know what the context he says this in the Democrats did a fraud basically like that was a fraud so happens to the best of us right what he's talk about is there was a there was a a fraud where the Democrats basically effectively fudged the numbers and said that there were more jobs than there were 5050 for me seems right I wouldn't feel comfortable betting on this though if I was going to bet on this I would bet smaller crypto Bitcoin zero zero percent chance that this is mentioned zero I think it's very low too that seems like a pretty easy no dude this is this is at 177% in my opinion because the people people that bet on poly Market are generally crypto native I think that this that's what that number is my opinion is this 177% is completely unfounded like I wouldn't be shocked if this number was closer to 2% like sounding like it might be your your best pick of the night actually at 84% it's hard to to to say that um like I feel very convicted that this is basically near zero but at the same time you have to size so heavily on this that it it feels a little tough um Israel at 93% this is too much to bet on like it's way too long odds there not enough juice um Marxist is an interesting one I me he likes talking about her dad who is a Marxist like is a Marxist and also it is funny so he likes to hammer it especially on like big nights 64% the feel own a like a fun one to go small on just to like have exposure to it so when you hear the word Marxist if you hear it you're like oh nice these aren't Investments now you don't get exposure to bets but I hear you no well you say that but you can trade these like you you trade these very much like like uh okay sir I'm I'm gonna have to stop you right there we are already past 20 minutes if if the people demand a tutorial on trading their betting shares then we can do one China three plus times I would say no McDonald's ah I've got the hat for that Mickey D's there she blows uh McDonald's he might bring it up because it you know what this is an inflation reference a lot of people have been complaining about it recently no no no no no no no I'm going to show you what what it's in reference to he said this on um a podcast The Lex Friedman podcast apparently Camala said that she worked at McDonald's and that was not true or at least like it wasn't explicitly true like I don't know exactly what the situation is well he he doesn't say it so he doesn't say it a lot I've heard enough that I'm betting no right I I would probably bet no but this one's a this one is a fun one to bet bet long on on I I I actually think that there's a possibility he'd be like did you work at McDonald's Cala like I could see that I could but remember we read the rules and they stated that they're not going to be able to address each other or no no but no but they they do have back and forths and this happened at the last debate there was some back and forth um and they are like they are they are having some not explicit fighting banter but sometimes they may address and speak to each other and if they do speak to each other and they're both like consensually speaking respectfully to each other which actually did happen with Biden you're going remember the golf club moment that did happen that is valid at 17 like I'd say that that that should be at 10 to 20% but I think that that's not a bad take like I I don't think I don't think that's mispriced but I think you could actually make some solid money on this one so if you're gonna take a long bet that's the long bet to take in my opinion Springfield that's a good one at 20% because that's so recent he might bring it up especially talking about the Border because they're going to talk about the Border a lot I don't know if you know what happened Springfield in question because apparently Springfield I believe it's Illinois um Springfield Illinois is considered right now one of the hot spots of like of uh of of the Border crisis and that believe I heard that on The Simpsons Bart is the problem he's been a real Menace um well you know it was always unclear with their eth was right CU obviously the skin was yellow leaving some interpretation to be open this Ohio oh I think it's Ohio that's the thing there's a bunch of different Springfields I mean everybody knows the one in Illinois but but not not the one in New Jersey no not not that one uh immigrant by the way let me just point out these are unusual places for the immigration debate to be cropping up because these are not states that are usually near these issues here's here's what because a story went viral that there is a claim that Haitian immigrants are eating pets in Springfield Ohio this is a real story that would like this is a real rumor that's been passing around J feels like we're in a Halloween epode yeah I could see that so this is this is concerning right like it's a little weird uh whether or not it's going to get brought up I don't know like that is tough um he might bring it up because there's actually there is actually like questions as to because Springfield is a is a point of concern generally um and apparently there's been like reports that it's you know one of the hot spots in a sense whether or not he's going to bring it up today I think that there is some concern from the Trump campaign that um that the claims are baseless and they don't really want to look up at look as you know bringing up whatever so I think he might avoid Springfield we'll see and I think that this is one of the weird bets like Springfield ha if he said Springfield he's saying Haitian like this is a parlay if you're going to bet yes on one of the other um you would bet like this this side parlay if you're going to do this bet yes on both or bet no on both but I would like this one's it's it's a weird one and I'd rather take I'd rather take better odds for example that he's gonna say no here than no at 80 cents like if I'm gonna say no I think these are kind of paired and I would say no it's 72 and I would put more money here than I would put there personally if it is indeed a pair you could bet the yes at 23 cents and the no at 72 cents giving you a total 95 cents exposure and theoretically if they work you know linked events that would be a five like a five cent EV right there do you you know what I'm saying I think I know roughly what you're saying and you might be right and there's a lot of uh there's a lot of Arbitrage to be made on these markets especially if you know what you're doing um I can't comment on that though because I can't do the mental math I'm in law school not not business school we'll pretend that's an excuse It's it is the excuse anyway um that's it so that's what Trump's gonna say okay well I got one for you then to close us out so if I were to ask you okay I've got a friend and I'm playing a drinking game with him and we each have to pick a word or or a phrase right for Trump or for Cala for for either both the goal is to pick the thing that will be said the absolute most so if I pick magga and he says it 20 times and he picks something else that's said 10 times right I win so what is your one drinking game term that you would pick so other than you know like ah or the or America and then other than border which has already been mentioned which I think border would probably be the go-to I would probably say immigrant or immigration or some variant of that um as as the most said like it is the single most hot button topic in America right now bar because it's basically a race thing like it is a race Clash it is a global Clash because you're talking about immigrants from Mexico from Haiti from internationally you're talking about a religion Clash it hits every hot button issue in American politics today it talks about economics like how are we gonna you know pay for this uh and how are we going to because they're passing laws in California like how are they going to you know finance homes in California for immigrants like this hits every single issue in the book I think anything that has to do with immigrants immigration um that is the most said word tonight the most said hot button word all right cool I think we can wrap with that my bingo card right here that's funny so red X's is that I think what Trump might say and blue for Cala those are my guesses your VOD grab your shots like say yes no whenever you're ready