it feels like I've been in hibernation the last couple of weeks not a whole lot of activity at all so it's good to be back but it looks like things are really going to be ramping up here as we head towards the statistical peak of the hurricane season which is September 10th you can see that graph there it's like you're going up a roller coaster up up up up up all the way up until September 10th and then it's coming down from there but looks like things are really going to be ramping up here all right let's take the the first system we've been talking about this all week uh an area of showers and thunderstorms now around 40° West one things I've noticed Al is that on the infite satellite picture you've seen uh yellows oranges and reds for a pretty long period of time and that tells us that this tropical wave at the very least is holding its own it certainly is and that's kind of been the problem for much of the Year here is these tropical waves have been actually pretty robust but they roll off of Africa and then they hit that Saharan dust that we've been talking about for weeks and weeks and they just fall apart so they really haven't been able to make much Headway or develop across the Atlantic as they've come West now take take a look at this maybe some dry air along the northern periphery but it it it has a river or a little area off to the west where the where there's not much dry air you see blue and white and that means there's enough moisture at the very least to keep this system let's say viable it certainly doesn't if you looked at this map a few weeks ago almost the entire map would have been orange or red but now we're starting to see that dry air starting to wne as we head towards the peak of the hurricane season more tropical waves are starting to come off of Africa and I think we have to watch each and every one of these including this first one for development here within the next couple of days there's the windshire product there is some dark purple Southern edge of that but what I see is also a ribbon of light purple extending toward the islands and into the Caribbean yeah besides the dry air the wind shear has kind of been a problem this month as well but it looks like that is also starting to come down especially across what we call that main development region which is from the Caribbean all the way out towards Africa so you can see that ribbon of lighter purple in there more favorable environment for the storm as it's approaching the Eastern Caribbean ACU weather lead hurricane expert Alex D Silva thanks for joining us [Music]