NWS Lake Charles Briefing on Potential Tropical Cyclone 6

e e e well my intro died I don't know what was up with that anyway good evening from the National Weather Service office in Lake Charles I'm meteorologist Donald Jones with a 10:30 p.m. update on what is still potential tropical cyclone number six there hasn't been a whole lot of change in the overall structure of potential tropical cyclone number six that's a mouthful uh this evening it is still a very elongated area of low pressure an extends essentially from the southern Gulf all the way up towards the northern to the northern Gulf and it's very the the highest winds are actually displaced on the western side of the storm which is fairly unusual for a tropical system but being as it's not an actual true tropical system right now that's not necessarily unexpected we do anticipate that as we go through the next 24 hours or so by this time tomorrow though that that we will be looking at a more well-defined Center of circulation those winds will begin to come back around in a more traditional tropical uh form and we will have a more organized probably tropical storm on our hands the next name would be Francine the fstorm on the uh the hurricane centers list that would be the sixth name storm of the hurricane season so far so we're going to talk about that we're going to talk about what to expect here over the next few days and we're also going to talk about the potential impacts expected across our region as always this is a live interactive briefing so if you have any questions as we go through our briefing feel free to post them in our comment section uh we're on X Facebook and YouTube this evening uh so lots of ways to get in touch with us if you do have a question we'll answer those just as soon as we uh we wrap up the actual briefing portion let's go ahead and jump into it here this evening we are looking at potential tropical Cyclone 6 again has changed very little in structure overall this evening still a very elongated uh storm I'm going to show you the satellite here in just a second but we are expecting the storm to gradually get its act together a little more it is expected to develop a low-level circulation and it already has Winds of tropical storm strength we're looking at about 50 mph hour winds out there right now in some of these bands so once it gets a closed low-level Center of circulation it will then be classified as a tropical storm and it'll probably start off already as kind of a mid intensity tropical storm uh sometime Tomorrow based on the current forecast track we are expecting impacts across Southeast Texas and Southwest Louisiana as well as South Central Louisiana and probably also into Southeast Louisiana maybe even into parts of coastal Mississippi and Alabama uh the biggest issue right now at least uh as it stands at the moment is going to be the potential for heavy rains uh heavy flooding rains we're looking at anywhere from up to six to possibly 10 inches of rain in some locations maybe even some locally higher amounts possible on top of that we're also looking at the potential for some storm surge we're going to be looking at the potential for some winds uh the forecast track does have the storm uh reaching category one hurricane strength and actually the latest update from the National Hurricane Center has it a little bit stronger of a category one hurricane at landfall so there will be the potential for some uh some hurricane force winds across a probably a fairly narrow area but it is going to exist and then we're also going to be looking at the threat for tornadoes as well as is the case with all landfalling tropical systems this is the latest this is actually the infrared satellite view this evening now the sun's on down we can't get a visible view of it at the moment but you can see it is still a very elongated storm this activity up here is associated with it broadly there is still a cal front that's kind of extending across the the Gul Coast here the northern Gulf Coast that was the the cold front that brought kind of our nicer air this is roughly about where it is at the moment somewhere up in that area there uh but the circulation itself or what will probably eventually become the circulation is still located way down here and notice all of this shower and thunderstorm activity on the western side of that that's where those strongest winds are actually located this evening those 50 plus m per hour winds across the area but this is associated with it it's all kind of elongated right now so you can't really say it's a circulation but gradually what I think is going to happen here is as we go through the night and into tomorrow this is going to begin to kind of wrap around a center of circulation somewhere up in that area there and we'll begin to see the characteristics of a more well-defined actual tropical system now where that Center of circulation actually develops is still somewhat up in the air and that's why the forecast track and int it is still a little bit uh you know iffy at the moment there is still some room for error for this track to shift West and East uh as we go especially as we go into tomorrow but really over the next couple of days so this is the 10m advisory from the National Hurricane Center I'll go ahead and make this full screen for you so you can take a little bit closer look at it here uh maximum sustained winds as I said even though it's not an actual tropical system are still around 50 miles per hour on the western side you can see the the little orange circle there that is where the tropical storm force winds if want to call it that at the moment are located on the western side of the storm and that's fairly unusual traditionally we see uh those storms are in in tropical systems we see uh winds on the Eastern side of the storm I'm trying to see where my little webcam went you can't see me that's okay you don't need to see me at the moment um but essentially um what'll happen here over the next 24 hours or so is we'll begin to see those winds wrap around the Southern and then Eastern side of the storm and that is more typical of what we would expect to see in a a more traditional tropical system now as I mentioned before we are expecting the storm to intensify to at least a category one hurricane prior to making landfall maximum sustained winds now at landfall are forecasted to be somewhere in the range of about 80 miles per hour so that's going to make it a mid to strong category one hurricane and it's not out of the realm of possibility that we could see a a category two hurricane depending on exactly how strong this or how rapidly the storm intensifies over the next couple of days it is in a generally favorable environment we'll talk about that here in just a minute uh but right now the official forecast is a mid-range category one hurricane at landfalls with maximum sustained winds near 80 miles per hour go ahead and come back to me here um so with that in mind what we're going to talk about next here is the expected time of arrival um and the probabilities of seeing both tropical storm and hurricane force wind so let's go ahead and talk about that here I'm going to go ahead and make this full screen again uh because this is kind of difficult to see otherwise so what we're looking at here first this is the probability of seeing tropical storm force winds across the region and this has come up a little bit from earlier this afternoon uh and will probably continue to come up as we get closer in time to the actual landfall here over the next uh two days or so so right now we're looking at about a 30 to 40% chance of seeing tropical storm Forest winds across Southwest Louisiana and uh along even higher along the immediate Cameron Coast you see a little The Thin Line there of the kind of orange color that's a 40 to 50% chance so at this point we're getting into a pretty decent probability of seeing at least tropical storm Forest winds across Southeast Texas and Southwest Louisiana you can see the same uh roughly the same probabilities for for Southeast Texas 30 to 40% up to as far north as say Harden County and a 30 to 40% chance of seeing tropical storm force winds in and around the Vermillion Bay Area now the probabilities go a little bit lower as you go up towards the Lafayette area and move Inland uh so the Lafayette area is looking at roughly about a 20 to 30% chance right now but again these probabilities as a whole will continue to rise as the storm intensifies and as we get closer in time to the uh the storm actually making landfall now if the forecast track or intensity does change we could be looking at uh significant changes in these probabilities that kind of makes sense doesn't it um so just kind of bear that in mind as we go forward here but at this point we're getting pretty close to a 50-50 shot of seeing tropical storm Forest winds across parts of Southwest Louisiana uh with this system and we're still two days out now before on the the previous uh briefing we did here there was actually a less than 5% chance of seeing hurricane Force wins anywhere you can see now there is roughly a 5 to 10% chance of seeing hurricane Force wins right along the immediate Coastline of Cameron Parish and Vermilion Parish um so these are also beginning to gradually ramp up as we're now expecting a slightly stronger storm and we're also getting a little bit closer in time now that's still a relatively low probability um but that kind of gives you an indication of of things to come here these probabilities I expect are going to continue to climb uh across a much narrower area for the hurricane force winds but it will be uh climbing as we get uh closer in time and as we get a better handle on the exact intensity of the storm let me come back over here again we'll talk real quick now we're going to talk about the the most likely time of arrival and I'm immediately going to send you back to the full screen because again this is easier to see on there um so this is the most likely time of arrival for those tropical storm force winds if we're going to see them this is when we expect to see them and for those of you who are planning on making preparations which you should be if you're anywhere in Southeast Texas or south Louisiana um this is basically the deadline this is when you want to have all of your preparations done uh there have not been any evacuation orders issued yet but if there are this is when you want to be out of Dodge by so we're looking at roughly between about 8:00 am and noon Wednesday morning for the onset of those tropical storm Forest winds now landfall itself is not expected to be until sometime Wednesday evening probably between about 400 p.m. and we'll call it midnight for now um but it looks like it's going to be later in the day on Wednesday but those tropical storm force winds are going to be well out ahead of the actual Center of circulation or eye of the storm so we expect those tropical storm force winds to begin Wednesday morning between about 8:00 am and noon again should the forecast track change should the speed of the storm change this could all also change as well but at least for right now that's the time frame we're looking at so that's your headline uh if you are making preparations you want to have them all done by Wednesday morning this is the earliest reasonable time of arrival so um if we do wind up seeing shifts in track or um or anything along those lines this is the earliest that we can expect to see the onset of tropical storm Forest winds and we're looking at very late Tuesday night for uh for that onset so roughly about uh 8ish hours earlier than the the expected time um that gives you a little bit of a a buffer window from the earli reasonable that we can expect them expect those winds to begin to the most likely time for them to begin so I'm going to come back over to the full screen here I want to talk to you a little bit about what's driving this storm um if you were with us earlier it's kind of the same idea so what we're looking at here and the reason why this storm is going to be moving off to the north the way it is did this just die on me I'll come back so here's the storm itself we'll call this we'll just call it a tropical storm for now because by tomorrow it probably will be it's going to be driven by two primary factors one we've got a coldfront that coldfront I mentioned right along the Gulf Coast there that's the that's the coldfront that brought us this very nice first taste of fall the false fall as we sometimes call it so this is just sitting up here this is an area of low pressure then we've got an area of high pressure over here over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico and you can see kind of the the wind gradients here and how this is uh how this turns this high pressure comes all the way out to roughly about the central Gulf of Mexico so the winds in high pressure spin clockwise and this is a trough so the winds along this are actually kind of paralleling it so it's moving kind of like that so it's essentially the storm is going to wrap around this area of high pressure and just kind of drift to the north the fact that it's it's fairly far away from the center of that high pressure is the reason it's going to be moving very slowly it's only moving about five miles an hour right now it's very slow drift to the north now as it approaches this cold front it's going to begin to accelerate into the front because the cold front itself is an area of low pressure as is the tropical storm and/or hurricane whatever it winds up being so these two areas are actually going to kind of gravitate towards one another so as it approaches the cold front these stronger winds that are paralleling it are going to kind of pick it up and accelerate it so it's going to be moving faster as it approaches the coastline and then once it gets Inland it's going to move off to the Northeast um at a much faster clip so we're not worried about this storm stalling in fact we're worried about it actually we're not worried about it but we're expecting it to accelerate as it moves towards the coast and gets Inland so that kind of gives you an idea as far as what's actually driving this storm we're pretty confident in that there's going to be a little bit of shift probably in the forecast track but the overall General philosophy about which driving the storm is not expected to change a whole lot here in uh in the coming days this is pretty solid and we expect it to kind of stay that way sea surface temperatures are very favorable we saw this earlier we're still looking at Sea surface temperatures ranging from anywhere between 86 and 88 degrees across the Gulf of Mexico you need a minimum sea surface temperature of 80 degrees to support tropical Cyclone development and we're well above that still so surface temperatures very warm very favorable for additional development wind shear is the other thing that we look at when we're talking about um developing tropical systems and I'll make this full screen for you here because it's kind of a messy graphic but essentially what we're looking at the the bright Reds and oranges that's areas of high wind share you can see that occurring essentially right over the top of us at the moment uh and right along the coastline those are areas of high wind here associated with that cold front we just mentioned further to the South across the southern Gulf and Western Gulf though you see those blues and greens that's areas of very low wind shear and that's where the storm is right now so conditions are pretty favorable for it to develop and we'll continue to be favorable all the way up until about the time it gets close to the coastline uh at that point I think that wind shear is going to start to uh to influence it or or begin to kind of Shear it apart a little bit so it may reach its whatever maximum intensity it's at it's probably going to reach it before it gets to the coast and then may actually begin a little bit of a weakening Trend uh as it gets right to the coastline that remains to be seen but generally speaking when we have increasing wind shear it tends to to start to tear storms apart and weaken them um so we may be in a situation where the storm may be beginning to weaken right at landfall it's going to depend on exactly where it encounters that wind shear whether it's off the coast or right along the coast but generally speaking for the next couple of days it's going to be in a pretty favorable environment uh there's a lot of moisture surrounding the storm not a lot of dry air so conditions overall are pretty favorable for fairly steady development there are a few models that do show a rapid intensification phase not a lot of them but there are some uh so don't be too surprised if this storm winds up being a little bit stronger than is's even being indicated right now you know the general rule of thumb is to always prepare for one category higher than uh than the storm is actually being forecasted for and that's not necessarily a bad philosophy in this case we're calling for a category one don't be surprised if we end up with a category two you know it's definitely not out of the realm of possibility uh with this system so so now let's talk about impacts expected across our region I want to start with rainfall because our rainfall threat is probably going to be the biggest overall threat at least that's what we're looking at right now uh we are expecting significant rainfall to begin on Tuesday with some of those outer rainbands um and then they're going to gradually kind of increase in coverage and intensity as we go into Wednesday so on Tuesday we're looking at uh a slight excuse me a slight risk of excessive rainfall and what that means you can see the The Legend down there on the bottom right there's roughly a 15 % chance of seeing flash flooding within 25 miles of anywhere that's in that yellow highlighted area so that goes from bont to Lake Charles to Lafayette to New Iberia over towards Baton Rouge New Orleans all of those areas are in that slight risk as we go into Wednesday that actually that risk area expands even further so we're looking at a much larger area that is going to be under risk for potential flash flooding uh and again under that slight risk that 15% risk now I expect that as we get close In Time by tomorrow we're going to get into some of these higher risk categories this moderate risk it wouldn't surprise me at all to see a moderate risk area um be highlighted across parts of the region where we're expecting the most rainfall and then once we get to within about a day of the storm it wouldn't surprise me if we see a high risk for an even smaller area the bottom line is we're going to be looking at significant rainfall totals I mean that's if you know anything about hurricanes you know that's one thing it's very capable of doing is producing very heavy rainfall here is a look at our forecast rainfall totals at least as it stands right now this is based on the current forecast track we're looking at anywhere between about 8 to 12 in possible across Coastal portions of Southwest and South Central Louisiana uh essentially from Jefferson County All the Way East to uh to St Mary Parish as you get a little bit further east into Southeast Louisiana those numbers are a little bit lower uh but obviously right along the coastline is where we're expecting our highest rainfall to occur and essentially I mean it's it's broadly along and south of the I 10 Corridor I know a lot of people don't like me using i1 as kind of a a delineation point but in this case it's actually a fairly good proxy uh for where the highest rainfall totals are going to be at least based on the uh the current thinking as we get a little bit further Inland the overall rainfall totals go down a little bit but we're still looking at four to six inches which is certainly enough to cause at least some minor Street flooding across the region now as the uh the storm gets better organized we get a better idea on intensity um this will certainly be adjusted but be prepared for the you know the significant flash flood threat that comes with uh with heavy rainfall for tropical systems because that overall is probably going to be our biggest singular risk with this storm even more so than wind at this point uh I showed you this earlier I'm going to run through this fairly quickly but generally we're looking at a 60 to 80% chance of seeing greater than two inches of rain that's that's almost a foregone conclusion at this point uh probabilities of greater than four inches of rainfall range between about 30 and 60% 60% near the coast and then gradually diminishing as we go further Inland and then the probability of seeing greater than 6 in of rain again 30 to 40% right along the coastline and then a little bit less as you go further Inland these will also rise in time as we get closer to the uh the actual storm making landfall now next in terms of potential severity is going to be the threat for storm surge we are looking at the the possibility of some storm surge with this system um the thing about when we're talking about storm surge threat is the only areas that are going to see storm surge are going to be along and east of the center of circulation so we're looking at Southeast Texas right now Coastal portions of Jefferson and Orange County and uh and Coastal portions of Western Cameron Parish but if we see a landfall where the uh the center of circulation is expected to to make landfall based on the current forecast track these areas would not see any storm surge at all because you'd be looking at North winds that actually be pushing water off the coastline so this is kind of a a um an in case of storm surge graphic in the event that that forecast track gets shifted further back to the West the areas in blue you can see there that's 1 foot or more above ground level the areas in yellow are greater than 3 feet the areas in the gray those are General Wetlands that are most of the time under some amount of water anyway um so that's not really considered in the forecast model and of course you can see the the levy systems in and around the Port Arthur area there going a little bit further east across Coastal portions of Cameron Parish and uh and calc Southern kashu in the Lake Charles area you can see that based on the current forecast track um this is actually fairly representative you can see roughly one to three feet of surge there will be a little bit of minor surge in and around kashu Lake U and going up the kashu river and then U the typical portions of Cameron Parish that flood in anytime we have any kind of significant subtly wind we'll be looking at uh at some surge values as well a little bit further east this is Eastern Cameron Parish uh Vermillion Parish and in and around Vermillion Bay you can see again the areas highlighted in blue are 1 foot above uh ground level and the areas highlighted in yellow are greater than 3 feet these are the areas that are going to experience the most significant storm surge and of course that's going to be in and around Vermillion Bay based on the uh the current forecast track um and that would make sense usually Vermillion Bay experiences its most significant storm surge anytime we have a strong southeasterly wind and uh if the storm winds up being just to the west of that that's going to put the strongest southeasterly wind pushing water right into Vermilion Bay So based on the current forecast track that is that could potentially be our most significant uh surge area um even with a little bit further shift off to the right we'd still be looking at some the the most significant surge would be in and around the Vermillion Bay Area of course the exception being the levy system uh that protects the majority of Morgan City you can see that there um but we are looking at the potential for some storm surge in and around Vermillion Bay based on the current forecast track and of course we'll have more uh specifics in terms of details of that uh as the storm gets a little bit closer taking a quick look at the uh the extended obviously going all the way out through the middle of next week very high rain chances very high fles flood thread that's uh pretty much what we've been talking about this whole time I'm not going to linger on that too much uh so that's what we have here from the National Weather Service this evening I wanted to throw this up here also real quick these are the times for our next briefings a lot of people want to know when the the next briefing is going to be these are the schedule or is the schedule for tomorrow so we're going to do another one 10:30 a.m. tomorrow morning we'll have another one at 400 p.m. tomor tomorrow afternoon and another one at 10:30 p.m. late tomorrow night so we'll do at least three uh scheduled and then if we have any kind of significant changes in between those times we'll uh we'll provide an impromptu update at that time so that kind of gives you an idea of what to expect going forward here chances are we'll probably do something very similar on Tuesday um we'll play that by year and I'll have I'll put a schedule out for that tomorrow as well so that kind of gives you an idea uh what to expect on that so that's it from the for the actual briefing if you have any questions feel free to stick around for a little while if not everyone have a wonderful rest of your evening we'll talk to you again tomorrow morning so uh let me go ahead and uh and back up here just a bit we'll go back to the uh the actual forecast track here and I'll check to see if we have any questions if you posted your question at the beginning of the briefing I may not be able to see it uh so throw it back in there again if you're still watching I'll be happy to uh to answer it for you okay just reading through some of the comments here looks like some people getting a little testy everybody calm down it's okay we're gonna be all right we're gonna get through this together like a family uh ARA asks should we evacuate well that's straight and simple into the point um there are no evacuation orders in effect for anywhere across the region right now um we do not issue evacuation orders directly as the National Weather Service our local emergency management communities and elected officials uh they're the ones that issue evacuation orders and those are the orders that should be followed respectively if you're under an evacuation order you absolutely should evacuate if you're not under an evacuation order you don't you you wouldn't necessarily have to evacuate unless you are in some kind of a sensitive group if you uh require electricity um you know some people have oxygen masks or or special medications that have to be filled regularly if you're in one of those select sensitive groups that have to have certain conditions you may want to consider evacuating but in general we defer to the evacuation orders so uh when if slash when an evacuation order is issued you should evacuate at that time at this this point there are no evacuation orders in effect that I'm aware of wion ask what will the worst Alexandria will get based on the current forecast track probably not going to be too bad in the Alexandria Area um you know if you look at the let me see if I can make the track a little bit bigger here so you can take a little bit closer look at it there the the center of circulation or what's left of it by the time it gets up that way based on this track will track pretty close to Alexandria um but you're only going to be looking at probably some low-end tropical storm force winds the storm's going to begin to weaken as soon as it moves Inland um so I think the biggest threat up your way is going to be the potential for that heavy rainfall okay let's see Adrien asks is there a chance it could become a category three I'm not going to completely rule it out I don't think it's particularly likely and the reason for that is is twofold one it would have to undergo a rapid intensification cycle which as I said earlier there are a few models that are showing that but it's not a foregone conclusion it's it's more it's less likely than more likely at this point um the other thing is as it approaches the Cod Coast it's going to be running into that wind shear that we talked about a little while ago so there it's going to be encounter encountering some less favorable conditions as it gets into the northern Gulf of Mexico um so do I think it's possible yes do I think it's likely not at this time Roger ask do you expect the track to shift East at all well technically it already has shifted East with this advisory it moved about 40 miles to the east of of where it was the last advisory the afternoon was roughly about a long Sabine Pass um and now it's roughly about five miles east of Lake Charles or roughly about Cameron uh at the moment so it already has shifted a little bit further to the East and it wouldn't surprise me if it gets nudged a little bit further to the east again uh yeah that's why we have the cone of uncertainty I get this question all the time could it go a little bit further east could it go a little bit further west absolutely um you know anywhere within that cone of uncertainty is uh is fair game for for the storm to wind up uh moving uh Terry's asking about any chance of a category two yeah right now the uh the forecast track has it as a kind of a mid-range category one 80 M hour winds it wouldn't take a whole lot to bump that up to a category two so yeah that is that's well within the uh the range of possibilities Christina says will I be sharing these slides yes I can put these slides on I'll put them on our Facebook and uh and Pages here once the uh the briefing has concluded TJ ask if the track has shifted more to the east yeah like we talked about a second ago the the forecast track has shifted about 40 miles east from uh from where it was this afternoon Drew ask what are the odds for a category three storm I'd say they're low right now they're not zero but they're low um for the reasons we just talked about before Logan ask what are the potential impacts outside of Southwest Louisiana um all it depends what areas you're talking about um we don't cover areas outside of Southeast Texas or Southwest Louisiana but you know we're looking at probably pretty decent rainfall totals across Southeast Louisiana as the storm decays and moves Inland we're going to be looking at uh pretty copious amounts of rainfall going through North Louisiana Eastern Arkansas Missouri Kentucky Tennessee most of the the the kind of the Eastern parts of the Great Plains um and into parts of Appalachia are going to see some pretty significant rainfall as this moves off to the Northeast Timothy asked Donald how large is the storm supposed to be and how far are the windfields expected to extend out let me uh let me see if I can pull that up for you here real quick give me just a moment I don't know off the top of my head but it is uh it is in one of our products so let me see if I can find it real quick so at least uh for right now I'm trying to look at the where the largest it's going to be is probably going to be just prior to landfall so we're looking at uh the tropical storm Force wins this is showing about 90 miles in diameter uh for the tropical storm Forest winds and then the hurricane force winds actually we're not showing any hurricane force winds on here um the next one would be just strong tropical storm force wind so roughly about 90 miles for those tropical storm force winds away from the center of circulation that's that's kind of what we're looking at right now that that's a forecast though you know and considering we're still talking about a storm that hasn't actually developed a lowlevel circulation yet that is very much sub change Mark asked do people have to leave Lake Charles there are no evacuation orders in effect right now so no not at the moment audrea asked Donald would you evacuate during the category one or c Category 2 storm or ride it out that would depend on a lot of variables that that I can't you know talk about your specific situation here you know I can write it out here at our Weather Service office we have a storm shelter that's built to withstand tornadoes so we can certainly withstand the wind um this building withstood hurricane Laura with almost no impact so I have the The Good Fortune of being able to ride out of storm here if necessary so I would be willing to do that um others if you're in a mobile home if you're closer to the coast and subject to storm surge I wouldn't recommend it as much so that's why I'm saying uh you know you need to heed the evacuation orders that are put out because they're put out with that kind of information in mind that will be able to tell you you know is your area at risk of seeing significant damage um now if you're concerned if you're afraid if you're uneasy about it then there's there's no harm in evacuating if you have to or if you feel that you you need to um but it it it's it's very much a an individual circumstance kind of situation Becky asked do you or do they expect it to be a fast moving storm we expect it to be accelerating as it approaches the coast right now it's not moving very fast at all we're looking at it moving to the uh the north northwest at about five miles per hour which is pretty slow um and that's going to continue most likely through probably at least Tuesday evening now you can see in this graphic here after Tuesday evening we see these little dots getting further and further apart that's an indication that we're expecting it to begin to accelerate it's going to pick up forward speed as it gets picked up by that coal front uh that's kind of lingering along the coast there so it will be picking up speed as it makes landfall and accelerating uh off to the uh to the north kind of North Northeast uh exactly how fast it's going to be moving at that point um it's difficult to kind of guess from this but I'd say probably somewhere in the range of between 10 and 15 miles an hour Dakota asked what is the chance for Rapid intensification I wouldn't say it's very high at the moment but there are a few computer models that are showing it as a possibility um I don't want to put an exact probability number on it right now just off the top of my head but I'd say it's less likely than more likely but it's not impossible Ruby asked do we know when Watches or Warnings will be posted watches will probably be probably be posted sometime late tomorrow morning possibly tomorrow afternoon I think uh the the the Hurricane Center indicated that we'd be within the window probably by the 10: a.m. advisory tomorrow morning um so that is most likely when we'd start to see at least tropical storm watches go up for for parts of the northern Gulf Coast I think probably tomorrow morning weather 87 says it somewhat looks like the IR satellite that the Southwest west side is beginning to contract itself and become a tad less broad unsure if it's just me though uh what are my thoughts yeah that's uh that's what we're expecting to happen it may or may not be happening right at the moment but that's generally what we expect will happen as we go through the day tomorrow that those winds and that shower and thunderstorm activity that's on the West side let me see if I can pull that back up here uh okay there it is so uh this activity here will gradually begin to kind of wrap into what we expect to see a developing low-level circulation um is it happening yet uh I wouldn't necessarily say that but uh but it is expected to happen Mara says is the bigger threat for Bowmont flooding or winds at this point flooding Michelle asks how fast will it weaken once it makes landfall hurricanes usually tend to to WAP to weaken pretty quickly once they make landfall you'll go from a from a hurricane to uh even a major hurricane to a trop iCal storm in roughly about 12 hours or thereabouts um you know the weaker the storm if you're talking about a category one hurricane it probably becomes a a tropical storm within just uh 4ish hours of landfall sometimes less than that Laura ask has it nudged a little to the east since the 5: PM briefing yes about 40 miles to the east from uh from the previous advisory with this advisory could ask are conditions favorable or not for Rapid intensification at this point within the next 48 hours conditions are generally favorable I'm not they're not particularly favorable for Rapid intensification although again there are a few models that are showing that it's not out of the realm of possibility but conditions aren't necessarily ideal they're pretty favorable but they're not perfect necessarily Kevin asked do you anticipate further drifting to the east I it wouldn't surprise me at all to see another little nudge to the east um you know there are several computer models that are bringing the storm in somewhere a little bit further to the east uh between like East Cameron Vermillion Paris somewhere in that area um that's that's certainly within the realm of possibility um do I expect it maybe a little bit you know I I would be surprised if there wasn't a little more of a nudge to the east I don't expect it to be dramatic though you know just kind of like we moved about 40 miles between the last advisory in this one maybe something similar to that uh by tomorrow morning um but nothing huge Kim says I'm trying to avoid power outages how far west would I have to go based on the current forecast track probably Houston that would probably be a safe distance West um should the track shift back further to the West though then uh then that might be not far enough it's hard to put an exact number on that but I think based on the current track if you were to go to Houston you'd probably be in good shape for for power all right I'm getting behind here let me try to try to catch up a little bit Todd's asking me since we don't have a center yet how many miles east and west of the official forecast track are we looking at to Todd's actually a former employee here so he's probably just repeating this over and over again because everybody keeps asking the same question um but generally speaking again we're looking at at a storm syst you know anywhere within this cone of uncertainty is still at risk for seeing uh seeing potential uh the the center of circulation drift either left or right now most of the computer guidance in the last few hours has trended a little bit to the east or to the right of the center of circulation um but it's not out of the realm of possibility that that could backtrack a little bit we could see a little bit more of a a shift back to the West depending on exactly how WR and how far west that area of high pressure in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico actually winds up uh building in um that's kind of the uh the driving force behind this at the moment Timothy asked how fast is the estimated wind speed it'll be traveling at landfall or the estimated speed not the wind speed speed um like I said I think we're probably going to be somewhere between about 10 and 15 milph at landfall cinjun Killa 94 should I expect category one or tropical storm Forest winds here in Lafayette Parish based on the current forecast track the one you see behind me here probably just tropical storm force winds if this track were to shift further to the east um and the storm were to intensify even if the storm were to be a low-end Cate one hurricane uh at landfall and taking a direct track to Lafayette you probably wouldn't see hurricane Force wins you would need a strong category one maybe a low-end category two to get hurricane Force wins those 75 m per hour wins in Lafayette proper Brooklyn says if it becomes a category two will it hit Alexandria as a hurricane you probably would not get hurricane force winds as far north is Alexandria with a category two no Rachel says I saw you mention the high pressure from the East is there one from the West that will affect the steering any not really um you know like we talked about before the uh it's going to be the combination of that that high pressure over the uh the Eastern Gulf of Mexico there it is and uh and this cold front that's over the northern Gulf Coast here so coldfront here high pressure here high pressure winds moving clockwise that was a terrible Arrow around the high pressure center that's what's initially going to be driving it to the north then this cold front is going to kind of take over and kick it off to the north Northeast um you know there's not a whole lot across Mexico or or west Texas that's really going to be driving the storm okay Leo says why hasn't anyone figured out a way to drop something in the middle of these hurricanes to break them up so we don't have to experience all of this every year what you have to understand about that is hurricanes the amount of energy released in a hurricane in a single day just 24hour period is enough to power the entire electrical needs of the United States for a year that's the kind of energy we're talking about here a nuclear bomb would not put out that kind of energy okay even if we dropped the nuclear bomb right into the middle of the storm besides the nuclear fallout and the the devastation that would wreak all of that aside it's still would not be enough energy to disrupt a well-defined hurricane that that's why we haven't figured out a way to do it yet because we cannot harness that amount of energy um to materially disrupt a a tropical system Rita says do you think the Lake Charles airport will be able to operate Tuesday morning around 7 a.m. probably um at that point we will probably see some out of rainbands possibly getting into the area by then but uh even that might be uh might not might be too early for that so yeah I don't see any problems with that Tuesday morning now by Wednesday morning it might be a different story Amanda said did I mention tornado risk I didn't have any graphics for it yet but yes tornadoes are going to be a risk um as the storm approaches and moves Inland um those risks are not clearly defined yet which is why I don't have a Graphic for it yet but yet any landfalling tropical system is capable of producing tornadoes we saw a whole bunch of them during barrel uh earlier this year so uh so yes that is definitely going to be a risk generally along and east of the center of circulation just like where those are that's where the strongest winds are that's also where the highest tornado threat is uh historically speaking in tropical Cyclones a few people asking about the the New Orleans area based on the current forecast track the the wi the wind threat in New Orleans is going to be relatively low now you are going to potentially be looking at some low-end storm surge or probably the better term to use is coastal flooding in and around the New Orleans area when you have a strong or fairly Breezy southerly Wind assuming that this forecast track verifies um so yeah there will be some coastal flooding you're certainly going to be dealing with some heavy rainfall we don't explicitly cover that area um you know this office only covers Southeast Texas and Southwest Louisiana there is a weather forecast office that covers New Orleans it's actually located in slight uh and they have they've done a Facebook live actually they did one earlier this afternoon I saw it on there so you can uh can check theirs out on their Facebook page and uh and get the latest and greatest from them regarding the expected impacts across the New Orleans area uh Jeff asked when are you doing a parish by Parish forecast I usually like to wait until roughly about 24 hours beforehand um before I start talking about the the parish by Parish impacts we will do them as the storm gets closer don't worry um but we're not there yet you know we don't even have a center of circulation at this point so we actually have to have a storm before we uh we start talking about individual parish and County impacts but those will be coming so don't worry um probably G to be on Tuesday if I had to to put a day on it right now um but we'll see how things develop oh here's the kind of hard-hitting questions that I look for if God said there will be no hurricanes if you shave your beard would you shave your beard absolutely 100% I'd shave it twice I'd shave it and keep it shaved I'd shave every hair on my body if we didn't have to deal with hurricanes again and yours too Ean we're both going to be bald unfortunately that's not a way to deal with it either uh Stephen asks is it possible that it'll weaken down to a tropical storm by the time it hits Lake Charles it depends on how how uh strong it is to begin with as it approaches the coast uh the thing about you know if we're looking at that landfall along Cameron Parish the the problem with Cameron Parish the problem with Cameron Parish uh is that it is mostly water still um so storms actually tend to weaken a little bit slower as they go across Cameron Parish because there's still a lot of water in the the swamps and the you know the the the wetlands areas that can actually uh slow down the um the as reduced the storm's ability to break down essentially there's actually been studies done on that it's called the I think it's called the brown Water effect um but it's actually a storm using water that's Inland or Sometimes using its own rainfall to continue to to gain energy um so that that's something that actually has to be taken into consideration as well when we're talking about a storm moving across Cameron Parish uh if we have a weak category one hurricane at landfall will it make it will we get hurricane Forest winds in Lake Charles probably not um if we're looking at a category two then yeah probably if we're looking at U it moving directly across Cameron and into the Lake Charles area so it just depends on the angle of approach it depends on how strong it is um that's a little bit more complicated question than than it kind of sounds on the surface stents asking about the Marksville of oils Parish will the wind be a big event that far inland probably not it's certainly going to be Breezy um but you're not going to be looking at Hurricane force winds that far inland chances of of tornadoes uh since you're on the quote dirty side uh yeah there will be the potential assuming that the storm stays to the west of you and you're on the east side there will be the potential for tornadoes yes Kayla says since it has shifted more West let me let me correct you right there it hasn't shifted more West it actually shifted 40 40 miles further to the east um since the last advisory so it's actually moving away uh from South e Texas at least the official forecast is right now um what can be expected in Southeast Texas based on right right now you're going to be looking at North winds so there would not be any surge in Southeast Texas if this forecast were to verify I take that back as the storm approaches from the north side you may get a little bit of surge but you wouldn't be looking at significant storm surge um in Southeast Texas uh as long as the storm remains to your East or to your right heavy rainfall would probably be your biggest overall risk um based on this current forecast track but again that is subject to change we're going to be looking at some uh some fluctuation there all right I'm getting way behind I'm like 20 minutes behind on these questions I'm gonna scroll down a little bit I'm gonna have to miss some I'm sorry Christy asked do you think our new elri infrastructure can handle a category 2 I haven't been through a low category hurricane here in Lake Charles I frankly do not know I I'm not a electrical infrastructure expert I have no idea how the new one compares to the old and how well it would hold up compared to the old you'd have to talk to uh entg or an electrical engineer for that information that's that's way beyond my knowledge base Courtney asked do you all give tornado warnings during storms during tropical storms and hurricanes yes there's actually been some debate about whether we should or not but at least as of now yes we do issue tornado warnings when we're able to see a tornado a rotation signature on radar which is not always the case uh during tropical system sometimes they can be very hard to see so you can have tornadoes touch down without warning um in tropical systems it has happen it'll probably continue to happen but yes if we do see uh a signature of a tornado we do issue tornado warnings during Hurricane Kelly ask when you say the eye passes at 7 p.m. Wednesday how long before that should you be locked down we were talking about those uh the onset of those tropical storm force winds that's when I would recommend um having any preparations complete and pretty much being in whatever uh shelter you're planning on locking down in so our most likely time of tropical of arrival for tropical storm Forest winds is going to be between about 8:00 a.m. in noon on Wednesday that's when I would uh would be prepared to be locked down by if you're planning on riding out the storm chill ask do you expect impacts in Dallas or just south of Dallas area not right now based on the current forecast track it'll probably certainly be Breezy um you might see a little bit of rain with it but I wouldn't expect significant impacts is asking about landfall timing we're generally expecting landfall right now to be sometime Wednesday evening um there's the forecast track there I'm estimating just looking at that probably between about uh I've been saying between about 4 p.m. and midnight that graphic has about 700 p.m. um it looks like it's just Inland by that point so that's kind of the time frame we're looking at late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening is uh when we're expecting landfall Michael's asking about the projected rainfall let me uh pull that graphic up here we are looking at uh here's our general rainfall expectations at least for right now um you can see the swath of generally six to eight inches along the uh the immediate essentially along and south of the I 10 corridor from uh from bont to Lake Charles over towards Lafayette and then as we get north of I 10 between about four and six inches of rain north of that between about two and four and then once you get up towards the shareport area we're looking at generally less than an inch Southeast Louisiana extreme weather says looks like go 16 is having issues unless it's a data issue with the satellite imagery y'all got any info on that I don't have any info on it personally I do know it looked like it was having some issues last night with uh with some images coming in and out um I can't tell you why I don't know I haven't seen any reasoning for that Kimberly says if someone within 50 miles of Louisiana Texas border decided to evacuate out of medical precaution do you suggest they go Northwest or just west and out of the cone keep in mind the cone and this is very important I'm I'm gonna answer your question but I kind of want to go on a side tangent here for a second the cone is not an indication of where impacts can occur impacts flooding winds rain surge can happen well outside of the cone the cone is not a delineation of where the impacts will happen so keep that in mind you can have impacts that fall well outside of the cone of uncertainty the cone of uncertainty is just there for the center of circulation only it says nothing about how far the impacts will go okay with that in mind where would I suggest you go Northwest is good West is good uh at this point based on the current forecast track Houston's probably good um treport would also be good if you wanted to go that way um that would be my recommendations at the moment the fact that this track is probably more likely to shift a little bit more further to the east um would lend Credence to the idea of going west at least at this point Brenda says how come she's 50 m per hour sustained winds but they're still calling her td6 instead of TS Francine well first off they're not calling her TV6 because she's not a TV she's not a tropical depression uh she is nothing at the moment it is a potential tropical Cyclone is the official designation I know that sounds kind of stupid I get that um the reason that it's called a potential tropical Cyclone is because it doesn't actually have a closed low-level circulation at this point that's one of the requirements to have a tropical Cyclone a tropical storm hurricane depression whatever the case may be it has to have a closed lowle level circulation it doesn't have that right now it's essentially just a what's called a trough um it's an elongated area of low pressure uh so it's not tropical by nature or by definition at the moment once it gains that low-level uh Center of circulation it already has the winds to to be a tropical storm so it'll be upgraded from nothing to a tropical storm there won't be a tropical depression phase uh with it so it'll go directly to Tropical Storm with 50 mile per hour sustained winds we expect that to happen tomorrow and at that point it'll get its name uh but right now it is a nameless feature just a little trough I know that's semantics but you got to draw the line somewhere Joelle says how soon are we looking forward to rain we're looking at rain beginning probably sometime midday Tuesday that's when we're expecting to start to see uh some of these bands get in here all right I'm getting way behind again I'm gonna have to scroll down sorry I'm GNA have to miss a few questions I'm still back at 11 o'clock and it's almost 11:30 and also we're gonna have to wrap up here soon because I got to do a forecast before I go home suji asked what is the likelihood of a high volume of tornado outbreaks it's it's it's very very difficult to say how many tornadoes a hurricane is going to produce uh in the instance of of hurricane Barrel which made landfall you know back in uh was that late June early July um we had a lot of tornadoes with that storm but there are other storms that don't produce hardly any maybe one maybe two um so there there's not a I mean is some science behind different storms producing different amounts of tornadoes but it's not something that's really um that we can really predict for each individual storm ahead of time there are different parameters that tend to promote more or fewer tornadoes um but just like with any severe weather event you know you can have you know when we have those cold FR roll through sometimes we have a lot of tornadoes when we're expecting them and sometimes we have very few or none okay sorry trying to catch up on on questions I'm sorry I'm missing a few um I'm going to go ahead and real quick here I'll throw up um my email and our phone number here if you do have a question that I missed uh feel free to send me an email or feel free to give us a ring we'll be happy to answer your questions you can also send us a direct message on Facebook uh you can also uh send us a tweet or it's not a tweet anymore now it's an x uh send us an X or uh you can also message us on Instagram um I'm just going to do a couple of more here that I'm gonna have to get off I gotta go do a forecast Becky says why do a lot of storms hit at nighttime there's there's no Rhyme or reason to that that's just kind of luck of the draw for lack of a better term um there there's no scientific basis to to storms hitting at night versus daytime Elizabeth says when is it supposed to become a name storm looks like sometime tomorrow once it gets that lowlevel circulation um so probably tomorrow maybe tomorrow afternoon maybe a little bit earlier if we're lucky but it's probably going to be or if we're not lucky um but it's probably going to be sometime during the day tomorrow Kathy ask is there any potential for training with this system yes absolutely in fact that's one of our biggest fears um anytime we get those bands training over the same area dumping heavy rainfall for a long period of time that's where we get the the real catastrophic flooding and yes that is going to be be a threat with this system it's the threat with almost all tropical systems Barett says how did my fantasy football team do today I don't know I gotta wait till tomorrow I got players playing on Monday okay I'm gonna go ahead and have to wrap up here for the time being I'm sorry if I missed your question again feel free to send us a direct message on Facebook feel free to uh to send me an email directly I'll be happy to answer your questions that way um I just got to get off here and go do a forecast real quick we are going to provide another update here tomorrow morning we're going to plan on doing it at 10:30 so uh feel free to tune in uh for that again tomorrow morning 10:30 4 o'clock and 10:30 tomorrow night that's going to be our our schedule for the day tomorrow for these live briefings uh we will do another one if necessary if there's some kind of crazy development we will do another one in between that uh but that's going to be our plan for now uh so 10:30 4 and 10:30 tomorrow uh in the meantime everyone have a wonderful rest of your evening it's uh it's about bedtime y'all need to go to bed I need to go to bed we all need to go to bed it's gonna be a long couple of days few days coming up here um so go get some rest and uh in the morning we'll probably still have some fairly nice weather out there for the last day of of false fall as we're calling it The First Taste of fall it was actually pretty nice out there today um but uh we will see you tomorrow 10:30 a.m. sharp be here in the meantime everyone have a wonderful of your evening we'll talk to you again tomorrow for