polling expert Nate silver and his election prediction model updated their forecast on Sunday giving Donald Trump a 63.8% chance of winning the Electoral College this update came after a nyt Sienna College poll showed Trump leading vice president kamla Harris by one percentage Point despite Harris leading in other polls the nyt Sienna College poll confirmed a shift in momentum towards Trump according to Silver the poll also revealed that more voters viewed Harris as too liberal on key policy issues compared to those who saw Trump as too conservative Silver's model now gives Harris only a 36% chance of winning the Electoral College with Trump leading by 2.5 points in National polling averages the update also highlighted a Battleground state where Harris might face trouble silver emphasized the importance of Harris's performance in the upcoming debate suggesting that a strong showing could overshadow the impact of the nyt poll he also pointed out concerns in swing States like Michigan and Pennsylvania in a separate post silver discussed key findings from the nyt poll including the perception of Harris as to Liberal among voters he noted that Harris had missed an opportunity to appeal to the center with her choice of Tim Walls over Josh Shapiro which could have signaled a different direction for her presidency