MLB DFS Pitchers to Target and Fade for DraftKings and FanDuel 9/7/24

Published: Sep 06, 2024 Duration: 00:13:58 Category: Sports

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good morning welcome to the DFS Army YouTube channel I'm Raz 11 and you can find me on x r 11 grinds going to take a look at pitching for today the 7th of September it is Saturday we have a five-game early slate and an eight game main slate ahead of us sounds like some potential weather uh in a couple places Boston being one um early look uh update that I saw this morning was that neither should be a PPD risk but there is possibility for some delays uh obviously we have a few hours to go so you want to pay attention to that I will be looking at DraftKings as that is where a majority of my action is if Dr FanDuel I would cut my pool into a half or even a [Music] third so let's just jump into the pitching options here on this five game early slate we get arinola against the Marlins uh not as strong pitching at home but it is the Marlins as an opponent um he lost to them earlier this year but put up a pretty strong performance uh I assume he's just a massive favorite uh minus 245 uh definitely the largest on this slate krop City sitting at 5 and a half with ju on the over as well should be extremely popular on this particular slate uh y kuchi uh struggled with Arizona when he faced him the first time uh has been pretty impressive with the Astros um he has multiple doubleit strikeout performances with Houston it is not the easiest of matchups obviously krop of six and a half with ju very strongly on the under uh but he is a minus 162 home favorite here I think we're we're looking to use him but uh I will obviously be interested in Arizona as well with how dangerous their offense is um Zack effin definitely interests me taking on his former Squad um absolutely shut them down the first time he's throwing the ball extremely well uh just to return from the IH and threw a gem uh 28 plus fantasy points in each of his last three starts with Baltimore and as you know I've been picking at Tampa Bay with pitching for quite a while now he's a minus 185 favorite with a K prop of five and a half so uh I think F1 is a strong option on this slate definitely stronger than Kikuchi at this point Ryan pepot somebody that I've used he does have K upside he um Baltimore can struggle sometimes at the plate I just don't know that I'm going to go there in this spot I know it is a small slate this K props four and a half with juice on the over but I'm just not sure I'm going to get there one thing that is intriguing the fact that we have a game total of seven and a half which is on the under uh I mean pepot certainly has the ability um to put up 25 to 30 fantasy points um just a matter of do I think he can get there against Baltimore on the road today um I mean he has from a fantasy standpoint has been at his best on the road um but still uh I mean maybe uh obviously he wasn't overly Sharp in his first performance against Baltimore but did rack up strikeouts if he's able to keep the ball in the ballpark uh maybe it is there is a route to being uh in the gpp winning lineup not really interested in much down here to be honest um brand herder not somebody I've dug into much but he's actually been decent the issue is like he just hasn't shown Big Time upside uh he's kind of stuck at about 80 pitches um so he's kind of capped I don't know if he can get us 25 to 30 not that maybe we need that on a five game slate if this was a larger main slate then for sure um he is somebody that intrigues me a little bit just because Oakland can strike out quite a bit uh but obviously we know how dangerous Oakland is from a power standpoint so maybe just not in play uh Jose canana I think he's got some upsid Cincinnati um but he's super volatile in this spot for me um he's a minus 162 favorite kpr four and a half bit juice on the under um maybe some potential weather in New York according to DK here but uh that's something we'd have to dig into um you know canana and herder might make the pool but it's definitely the three here at the top um with Nola effin being you know the obvious pairing let's jump into the main slate here uh we get Dylan CE taking on San Francisco he's made two starts against them uh been pretty strong overall um 13 strikeouts in those two starts he's been at his best from a fantasy standpoint when pitching at home K numbers are far superior when pitching at home he has been giving up some runs walks have been there KS have come down um but it's hard to ignore what the upside is so I I think we need to play him just based purely on what his upside is uh his K prop seven and a half with juice on the over uh which goes against his recent Trends minus 148 favorite I think it's a good game to to look at for pitching uh Logan web on the road isn't as as strong but he's been pretty solid against San Diego this season just not a big K guy uh and San Diego doesn't strike out a whole lot uh so maybe we just don't end up with any Logan web uh but you know my first look here at this pitching pool um we're going to have to include some guys that we don't feel overly confident in uh by the looks of things Logan Gilbert has definitely struggled more on the road but um he's still I mean even last last time out on the road along four runs and six Innings still went over 20 fantasy points uh there's definitely upside with him he has a minus 125 Road favorite game total of just seven in that one k prop a five and a half juice on the over I think he's just kind of the the de facto SP2 in ranking wise um behind ceas but there's obviously a little volatility here at the top Spencer schwellenbach pitching at home uh where he has had a home run issue but his strikeouts are better when at home he coming off of a Soo performance uh but prior to that had been rolling pretty well um I haven't looked into how Toronto's been performing strikeout wise of late I know the first part half of the Year there weren't a huge strikeout team but I think there's enough upside with SCH and boach his krops just five and a half with juice on the under but he is a minus 166 favorite in this spot already talked about Logan web uh certainly an option I'm just not overly excited to get there uh bayy Ober has struggled against Kansas City uh I [Music] believe six runs in one start and then what nine runs in the other um it's really not a a good combination to be honest um but he's shown such strong upside even in tough spots you know like we talk about Cleveland and not being a big strikeout team uh he went for 33 fantasy points in that one obviously the ones around it pretty big performances but against weaker teams I think we look at bayy Ober he is a minus 135 favorite in this one uh kpr just four and a half juic is on the over but Kansas City uh much like San not a big cap opponent and I think that's kind of the case with uh St Louis as well here so we have some teams that just don't strike out a ton but they're facing some of the better pitchers on the Slate and I think some of the teams that do strike out a little bit more uh are facing some pitchers that we not overly excited to jam in uh so it's going to be an interesting slate roesy uh has not looked great at the Major League level I'm just not going to go there he'll probably go out and throw his best performance to date but that's something that we can live with passing on Jose Brios definitely not the same kind of guy on the road as he is at home been pretty solid um you know 24 plus fantasy points in five straight and six out of his last seven in my mind I think Atlanta's more dangerous than they are right now just four and a half but juice on the over uh I think Brios is somebody we want to use because he does have the upside it's just we're we're going to want to have some builds with them Atlanta bats in them um pick up some of the home runs that potentially happen Tyler Anderson um pretty strong against Texas the first time he faced him he's been at his best when on the road um those are some Elite level numbers when pitching on the road not a huge k guy um obviously you can see it's just eight strikeouts and nine walks over his last three starts the recent Trends are not exciting for Tyler Anderson that's for sure with that being said on this slate I think he's in play he's a slight dog um but with Texas being without Seager uh and I believe some of the other main guy like semian had been struggling the last I kind of looked into it so maybe we do have to include Tyler Anderson in our pool G crochet would be nice if we knew that he was going to throw 75 pitches but it really looks like he's going to be 50 to 60 and with that being the case we just we can't utilize him I don't believe Tobias Meers great matchup was I'm GNA assume this game was inour U wasn't overly strong but um from a fantasy point perspective he best at home where he's at this evening uh I think he's going to be a fairly popular SP2 on this slate K prop of six and a half juices on the under but he is a minus 290 favorite so um one of the guys you can kind of pay down for and get 25 to 30 Fantasy Point upside on this slate Kyle Gibson pitching at home not allowing home runs at home um but overall his numbers at home have not been as strong I'm interested just because it's Seattle and they strike out plenty and he's a very small home Underdog in a game total of seven so I think there's upside his kpr five and a half juices on the under but I'm intrigued enough with Kyle Gibson on the Slate that I think we want to to get some exposure Alec Marsh no no thank you uh Gavin Williams would be nice if it wasn't against the Dodgers Jack ligher probably not um you know his best Major League start came two starts ago against the White Soxs and even then wasn't overly strong um the Angels obviously are not a super dangerous Squad but he just hasn't shown it at this point Cooper Criswell did cross my mind a little bit here uh coming off of a great performance against Detroit but he got pulled at 52 pitches uh which didn't makes sense to me considering he was up in the 80s or around 80 before that he now gets the best match match up on the board um so do we sprinkle him in I think we do uh to be honest we should I would guess expect him to be able to to get back to the 80 pitch mark um and in just 52 pitches in the last one he picked up 19 fantasy points that would tell me that he does have upside to 25 plus if he's given the leash to do it um it's just a matter of can we trust that to happen uh I'm not necessarily sure but the matchup says that we should give it a shot so but there we have it there's the first look at pitching if you enjoy what I bring to you please hit the like button hit the Subscribe button turn the notification Bell on get the alert anytime we drop videos here at DFS Army if you want to join us and get access to our coaches tools sheets Discord Etc I'll put links in the description below uh you can use promo code Raz that's Raz for 10% off monthly and as always best of luck everybody

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