Ep. 78 Clip | Bud Elliott Talks Big 12 vs. ACC and TCU Win Totals

all right folks very excited for this next guest you know him from the cover three podcast and his work over at CBS Sports you also know him as a loyal seol he fights the good fight for Florida State on the internet regularly which somebody's got to do right small fan base they need they need someone to stand up for them but uh the wonderful Bud Elliott is here uh with us today on the frogs Insider podcast bud thanks so much for joining us today Jamie man glad to be back yeah it's it's uh you know it's that time of the year football's getting rolling obviously Florida state had a tough game over there in Ireland but um it's just nice to have some regularity back in the schedule this year and I'm just I'm just glad that pads are popping again and that we're getting after it it's it's like farming man right like like you know you spend most of the year just kind of planing and planting and and like 100 you now it's like 100 days of go time let's you know and we get to enjoy it you know I think even those of us working in it got to remember to you know to enjoy it and sit back and and appreciate it's it's a it's a cool gig it is a fun gig it is a fun gig and so let's let's jump into this here this conversation because I know that uh Brett ymark made some comments at Big 12 media days this year that I thought were particularly interesting specifically around you know the debate that's going on about who's really the number three conference in the country is that the ACC is at the Big 12 he touted the big 12's parody top to bottom the level of competition week in week out is kind of giving the Big 12 the advantage in that regard but what's your perspective just as you kind of look at the landscape nationally yeah I well it's interesting um I thought ymark was pretty smart to say that because I think he knew that he had ACC commissioner Jim Phillips pretty trapped um because in order to Lodge a true defense against that statement which I think you can easily do you would have to basically invoke the track records of the two schools Florida State and Clemson which are currently suing to leave your league um they are the two that have carried the conference for you know about the last quarter Century or a little more and have won you know the vast majority of conference championships they've won what uh six or five or six national titles in in the last 30 years so uh it's kind of weird because you know Phillips I think ymark probably knew that at ACC media day that Phillips was probably not going to want to be praising Florida State and Clemson all that much if he could because they're currently suing to leave his league and they' said some things about him that I'm sure he didn't like uh I don't know if we really know how good the Big 12 will be because we have not seen the Big 12 you know really without Texas and Oklahoma yet and those from a you know from a rating standpoint certainly carry the conference um or did and I will still watch a lot of Big 12 Football because I enjoy it I think it's a good brand of football like they play a lot of really close exciting games I don't know if it's a brand of football that attracts a whole lot of casuals which is really to do big numbers you need him and that's sort of Brett yar's challenge it it's like how do you define um how do you define what a better league is right is it your top is it your bottom um I don't think the bottom of the Big 12 last year was was worse than the ACC to be frank I mean like picked your worst team in the ACC last year like pit kind of fell apart they they weren't I don't think by any real rating system worse than like an Arizona State or BYU or a Baylor right um you know at the top I the top is where I think you see the consistent difference because there's really from a recruiting standpoint three there's three teams that kind of can get to that certain level that you need to really compete for it all in recruiting that's not to say they always do it that's not to say they always do what you need to do with those players uh in order to get there but it's sort of like a SAT term like necessary but not sufficient condition you know and I don't uh I don't really see any big 12 team that is particularly close to getting there at this point now I think certainly somebody will probably rise up win the league more often and then get a recruiting bump off that I would have to think but right now I I thought it was brilliant for Yar because he can say something that I bet in his heart of hearts he doesn't really believe and the guy who would have to counter it really can't counter it you know it's it's interesting that you bring up kind of the the blue blue blood blue chip recruiters versus depth because I think that is kind of where this this argument Li lies is which do you value more is do you value having seven to eight teams that can win your conference in any given year do you value having someone who's consistently going to compete for national championships and I think that you're right when you look at the big 12 and the ACC they're both kind of leaning in to option A or option b there uh and you bring up recruiting and I think that's an interesting point as well especially without Texas and Oklahoma in the league now because we've seen TCU kind of transtion into some horn frogs talk here be really the consistent number three Recruiting School in the Big 12 to this point do you think that they have an opportunity now to be one or two consistently moving forward or do you think that the parody of the league overall will maybe bring the pack closer to them at least for a year or two no I I definitely think TCU has a chance to stay on top in terms of of talent acquisition now that Texas Oak home are gone for a couple reasons we we might have parody of record we don't have parody geography right and where you are still matters a hell heck of a lot like being able not every single recruitment is some million dooll nil battle that the ability to win the nil Battle of hey like you know we got hotels for you on the weekend if you want to come over you know from three hours away so you don't have to make the long drive home after the game like that that's a small nil battle you can win whereas you know like out of state out of region in some cases like literally the Big 12 you know spans just just like like ACC does quite a lot of distance now I think TCU financially and with geography still has advantages over like the vast majority of That League in terms of of recruiting so I would expect those to hold and when you look at what Sunny has done from a just position recruiting standpoint he's he seemed to be really intentional especially along the offensive line of getting talent in bulk more than some Blue Chip one or two one or two bodies and and what do you think about that strategy when it comes to volume not necessarily quantity over quality but just the volume of guys he's bringing in along the trenches so far I I think it makes a lot of sense right uh especially at certain position offensive line would be one of the ones I'm glad you highlighted I think that's I think that's really smart mainly because offensive Line's hard to project especially after those top few kids generally there's something that needs to happen to the player either he needs to grow or you know and maybe like to get stronger but keep that athleticism or may maybe he needs to um you know slim down some and see if we can unlock maybe some additional foot quickness if if the guy is in a little bit better uh better shape you know or maybe it's a position change type kid that offensive line past the top X number of players whatever you want that to be in the country is really a projection battle and I I don't think that anybody is like world's better than everybody else at it not I mean necessarily I'm sure somebody is you know would argue their track records better but I would say like over what kind of sample set right like you're you're better at predicting crazy growth Spurs than the next guy okay cool uh so no I do think volume shooting there you know makes makes a lot of sense at at other positions maybe not right like I um you know as somebody that reads a lot of beat Rider reports when I see running back by committee I'm like all right cool that works when I see receiver by committee immediate red flags like I would rather have one stud and two complete Jags than three good players like college quarterbacks aren't good enough to go through all their reads and be like oh this guy's open like there's usually one guy they're going to feed and then maybe somebody else decent so I think it kind of does depend on position but I think volume shooting along the lines of scrimmage because of the projection aspect of it makes a lot of sense if you can pull it off so you mentioned that you you read a lot of beat writers I know you and Jeremy Clark were on your show uh earlier this year as he was breaking down TCU for you and and you've been I know an observer of horn frog Blitz over on 24/7 for quite a while now but when you when you think about this TCU team in 2024 and and the potential of of the program we've talked about the talent acquisition and all of that picked 10th coming off of a 5- seven season do you think that there's a ceiling where TCU could compete for the top of the Big 12 this year I do um now I mean we know they've they've suffered some unfortunate Camp injuries right so that they they need to stay pretty damn healthy I think like my guess is especially at the spots with which they've already had guys go down um those need to stay healthy just due to depth no team's carrying like Seven Corners who can play right so but yeah I mean athletically like physically I think they could I think they could match up with most of the teams and it's just going to come down to like schedule do you get the right breaks can can you execute in those critical situations you know can can you play smart football I mean last year they they lost some close games they they had some quarterback you know dinged up stuff I you know Hoover got ding from what iall so I think it's certainly POS me there's not a lot of teams in this league I'm like they can't win it okay Baylor can't win it in my opinion BYU Can't Win It Arizona State can't win it I really don't think Colorado can Win It ultimately um who is am I missing somebody who definitely cannot win it that who I should be naming here see that's the question right I mean probably Cincinnati because Cincinnati's already lost they already lost two starting D linemen TCU lost two corners but like C's lost two D line so depends on depends on your opinion of Texas Tech I suppose I think they've got some pretty pretty good talent on the stop in up there Central Florida lost a couple defensive linemen already you know all these Texas R like all these state of Texas Riders like love Joey McGuire in that story and I'm like I don't know man two years ago to me they were they were much luckier than they were good and you know last year they were a little bit unlucky but they still weren't good like it's not like they should have been nine and three um I'm not trying to disparage Tech I just maybe it's because I don't live in the state of Texas and I don't I don't see certain things I guess but I'm not I can't write them off certainly like if Morton is healthy and the defense actually is improved and maybe the offensive line can hold up sure so how many teams are in a Big 12 16 17 16 yeah and we could only truly cross off five I think Arizona State BYU Baylor Colorado Cincinnati yeah so got 11 teams that you could actually make a plausible argument that they could win it's pretty crazy and you talk about you talk about injuries and and Morton and Hoover have dealt with their fair share cam rising over at Utah hasn't played in two years right I mean we haven't seen Jaden Daniels stay healthy out at um Kansas for a full season quite yet you know I mean health I think is going to play as much a part of this as Talent when you talk about how wide open the league is but when you look at at at the Big 12 who would you identify maybe as one or two of the real true Front Runners in the conference this year I I think I think Utah is and I know they they're the betting favorite what not but if if Rising is healthy and back to form that they may have a defense that's just better than everybody else by a meaningful amount possibly they had a lot of injuries last year like a lot and they still found a way to play good football I think Whittingham is just kind of a wizard um and they're always going to be tough that I think the schedule's really really favorable for them so I think you have to go Utah and then there's probably a next group of like Kansas State a lot of people like Iowa State I think they're kind of being priced close to the top of their range but I understand the projection of them being better because last year to start was such a I mean such a circus right like that that the like the gambling suspensions and all of a sudden they're playing a freshman and Beck or um yeah Beck yeah sorry and all of a sudden he's good and and I I would also take a look at Oklahoma State so I I bet Oklahoma State last year at 60 to1 to win the Big 12 and and was able to hedge that out against Texas because I was like H I bet I'm more on schedule not on the fact that they can actually beat Texas because athletically Texas is just kind of different everybody else I think I think although Oklahoma did beat him um but Oklahoma state was not that good last year they were mainly just like I bet them because the schedule because I thought they could they were just slightly better than most of the teams on their schedule this year they could actually be good they return like 18 starters I know they think the receivers are way better than they were last year I think due to health um like if that's the case if Oklahoma state is like a real passing game where you really have to be afraid of the receivers then uh like I know they lost I thought they lost somebody to the portal but they weren't worried about it at all from from doing the summer school if I recall so um that could be one I would say kind of those as like the Front Runners to me and you know you're talking about another quarterback there Allan Bowman who's you know going to file for retirement soon and is Health right I mean 27 28 years old he's closer to my age than the Freshman on the team I think and and you know he's one of those kids where he was healthy last year was banged up a little bit of tech before he transferred quarterback health I I'm so interested in following just the QB Health storylines in the Big 12 this year because I mean there's so much top it feels like the ceiling for a lot of these guys is really really high I wanted to just like take half of these teams and bet they're alt line under for the season because like all right like given this track record of Health for these teams couple of these guys are not going to make it through the year right and and their seasons are going to be like meaningfully worse than we all think they're going to be right now I just don't know who it's going to be um but also most of them who we most of them who we are like oh this guy can't stay healthy but they're also like really good you know like Daniels when he's good is is a beast Morton when he's good for a young guy was was pretty good I thought Hoover showed some nice moments when when he was healthy you know um shoot I'm probably missing like shador got beat up last year really bad at Colorado I mean that's not a big 12 guy last year but he is now I faf right I mean right yeah I mean fa is really really good um I think he's got a chance to set some like college records because he's like 5'8 flat so I don't think he's gonna be a pro you know at that size so I think like Arizona might have him for like three more years and we haven't even mentioned you know KJ Jefferson's in the conference now out at UCF I mean just the quarterback depth this year seems to have jumped from a year ago even even despite losing Oklahoma in Texas which I think is really really good for the league overall SEC and the Big 12 have like very good depth of competent to like pretty damn good quarterbacking this year um whereas the Big 10 feels really topheavy to me it's one of the reasons why I think like the preseason favorites in the Big 10 are likely to hold serve because I don't really know that the middle tier teams have the quarterback play to jump up and bite somebody and pull the upset you know what I mean yeah I fully agree with that so back to TCU for a second you mentioned you liked some of what you saw from Hoover last year I I you know watching him this fall after he missed spring with that injury I think he's coming along nicely in the year two of the Kendall BRS offense uh but when we think about uh you know win totals for TCU this year I know I listened to your episode where you guys picked all your win totals and you were favorable towards the frogs more so than your co-hosts over there at cover three uh what was it about TCU at that point that made you choose the over on seven and a half and are you standing by that right now I I I don't think I'm Gonna Stand by seven and a half right now because the of of of the corner stuff I mean like that fair I mean if you lose what is there they they're Corner one and they're starting nickel right uh yeah yep that's a lot like I mean those guy those guys were starting for a reason I'm not saying the drop off has to be immense but like just if you just factor in that plus the natural attrition you get during the season and you just spoke about the the quarterback stuff I would still pretty hardly I would still consider playing over on a seven seven and a half to the over is a little I think a little tougher when you lose you know know that much on defense in the preseason but I I do like some of these games that they have to play right like they get Texas Tech at home which is nice uh now the the trip to Utah is very tough I think that's the best HomeField Advantage uh in in the Big 12 um actually by some ways that I measure it is the hardest in the sport uh so that's a tough really tough road I know they get the buy before so that does help but I mean you get Houston at Kansas I don't think is that tough at least in terms of Stadium type stuff because it it's cace they're not at their normal Stadium they're playing like some of their games at that uh like Community College uh gonna this one's gonna be an arrowhead yeah see and like who's yeah that's not that like how many people are gonna show up for that right I'm not saying it's total neutral site but it's not a huge HomeField Advantage I don't uh I don't think I mean at Baylor I know Waco is not like close to everything but it's not totally out of the way for TCU you can get there right you're not leaving the state much there and at Cincinnati who we just spoke about they already suffered quite a bit of attrition so if you're still in it and you're still motivated like at Cincinnati's a game I think you could go get I like having Arizona at home not having to go play in the desert that's kind of nice I like having UCF at home um the opener seems a little tricky though I will say I mean this this coach for Stanford is he uh that guy can coach he he won and looked really good at sack State Stamford shown some like signs a life flash I think TCU is going to have to actually play well to win I agree with that you know I think the lines moved almost all the way up to 10 for that one in tcu's favor uh I think I'm going to probably stay away from that and play more round with the the over under I think is at around 58 and a half I like the under in that one just because there are so many unknowns but you're right L omor is a phenomenal receiver we've talked a little bit about the corner losses for TCU with Avery Helman Vernon Glover out for the year uh you know I think for TCU this year consistently it's going to come down to pressure how much pressure can they get on opposing QBs like you said with the depth at quarterback in this league pressuring quarterbacks getting them off their timing getting them out of the pocket is going to be really critical and I agree I like getting Arizona at home I like getting UCF at home Utah you could probably chalk that one up in in the wrong direction for TCU and I agree with you I love the atmosphere there I was actually there in I think it was 2008 the year Utah won the Sugar Bowl oh yeah was my was my junior year at TCU and so some buddies of I flew up for that game it was on a Thursday night TCU lost it 13 to10 Ross Evans I think missed three field goals in that game for the horn frogs it was absolutely brutal um and then the next day if you'll recall Bud that was when all of the rumors about Gary Patterson going to Kansas State crop up oh okay and so it was just this terrible weekend up in Salt Lake City for horn frog fans who made the trip but uh you know looking forward to getting back up there this year hopefully with a better result for sure it it it's a cool atmosphere for sure yeah it's I will say in the Stanford game um I've been reading a lot of the practice reports the Mosley kid for Stanford apparently is the other receiver they signed the true freshman has really Shin in their Camp as well when healthy so I'm I'm excited to see him yeah I'm looking forward to this game you know Stanford's I think got 12 true freshman in their two deep going into week one so you know you kind of tells you where including a quarterback yeah yeah and it tells you where they are in their development cycle but I think you know coaching hire was for the long term so so I think Cardinal is going to be in a good shape moving forward but appreciate you coming on appreciate the Insight from a national perspective it's always good to kind of give us a wide angle lens every now and then because you know beat Riders we can get into that just that Loop of just only focusing on having our blinders on and and so I appreciate the time in Jamie enjoyed it man good seeing all right guys appreciate you