what's going on everybody and welcome to the top tier handicapping Network I am guns pick and this is my free college football play for Saturday and the game that I'm going to be eyeing in on is New Mexico is going on the road to play Arizona for the late night degenerate special looking at this matchup Arizona coming back this season with 15 returning starters they did lose a lot of their running back and wide receiver Corum however they still keep their quarterback Noah ffid top wide receiver McMillan who had over 1,400 receiving yards last season and four out of their five starting offensive linemen uh looking at the New Mexico side they already got one game under their belt they lost to Montana State 35-31 giving up 21 unanswered points in the fourth quarter resulting in the loss and again the New Mexico defense was a a liability especially in the Run game last season they gave up 5.3 yards for carry on the ground against Montana State they gave up 362 rushing yards for 7.7 yards per carry so I expect more regression here from New Mexico also Arizona while losing a core of their running backs they do get some good ones in the transfer portal including New Mexico's former running back jakori croski Meritt who had 1190 rushing yards last season for 6.3 yards per carry so if anything Arizona upgraded at the running back position also looking at some trends at all points to Arizona Arizona 7-3 ATS versus non-conference opponents last three season Seasons New Mexico 1423 And1 since 2014 versus non-conference opponents and 415- one ATS as a double digit dog plus I like to fade teams coming off a week zero game with one game under their Bell as that has been a historic and profitable Trend fading those also taking heavy favorites especially at home in week one so with all that being said I'm going to be taking Arizona the Wildcat minus 30 and a half minus 112 for a 1 and A2 unit play good luck with your plays this weekend let's cash some tickets please like And subscribe to the top tier handicapp Network good luck let's cash some ticket [Music]