Nvidia will have 16% upside from here, says Truist's Will Stein

Published: Aug 27, 2024 Duration: 00:05:35 Category: News & Politics

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"OVERTIME." IT'S GOING TO INFLUENCE A LOT MORE THAN JUST ITS OWN STOCK. >>> MY NEXT GUEST SEES 16% UPSIDE FOR NVIDIA FROM HERE, WRITING DEMAND FOR GPUs IS INSATIABLE. HE UPPED HIS PRICE TARGET TO 145 EARLIER THIS WEEK. JOINING ME NOW IS WILL STEIN, ANALYST AT TRUIST. WHAT IS THE MOST IMPORTANT THING IN THIS REPORT? >> I THINK THE NUMBERS ON THE QUARTER AND THE GUIDANCE ARE ALWAYS VERY IMPORTANT FOR ADDITIONAL REACTIONS. BUT I THINK IT'S THE LONGER TERM COMMENTARY. ACTUALLY, I THINK THOSE THINGS TEND TO BE MORE IMPORTANT FOR THE STOCK TO MOVE OVER THE SUBSEQUENT FEW TRADING DAYS. >> YOU POINT OUT THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS ABOUT THE LATEST CHIP NOT COMING OUT AS SOON OR IN AS GREAT OF VOLUME AS SOME HOPED. BUT THERE'S STILL REALLY HIGH DEMAND FOR NVIDIA'S PRODUCT, AND PEOPLE WILL TAKE A GENERATIONAL OLD, TWO GENERATIONS OLD EACH. SO HOW MUCH DOES THE -- I GUESS THE AVAILABILITY OF BLACKWELL'S MATTER AT ALL, AND HOW MUCH DOES IT MATTER TO SENTIMENT IF WE GET SOME COLOR FROM NVIDIA THAT SAYS WE FEEL FINE ABOUT THIS, OR ACTUALLY, WE'VE GOT ENOUGH STOCK OF CHIPS THAT PEOPLE WANT THAT IT'S NOT SOMETHING YOU NEED TO WORRY ABOUT. >> I DON'T THINK THIS IS A MAJOR WORRY HEADING INTO THE QUARTER. I'VE CONTACTED BY CHANNEL CHECKS THAT REVEAL NO DELAY. SO I DON'T KNOW OF ANY CUSTOMER THAT'S BEEN TOLD THAT THEY WILL HAVE A DELAYED DELIVERY. I KNOW SEVERAL CUSTOMERS THAT HAVE PRODUCT ON ORDER. I DON'T KNOW THAT ANY HAVE CONFIRMED THAT THE COMPANY TOLD THEM THERE WILL BE A DELAY. SO I CAN'T SAY WITH CERTAINTY THERE'S NO DELAY, BUT I DON'T THINK IT'S LIKELY THAT IT'S DELAYED. NOW, IF IT IS, DOES IT MATTER? NOT VERY MUCH, IN MY OPINION. THE REASON IS THAT CUSTOMER DEMAND FOR GPUs FROM NVIDIA ARE INSATIABLE NOW. THEY'LL TAKE H-200, EVEN H-100. WHATEVER NVIDIA CAN DELIVER RIGHT NOW, AND THAT'S AFFECTING THE BROADER GROUP OF COMPANIES THAT ADDRESS THIS AI NEED. NOT JUST NVIDIA, BUT THERE'S A FEW OTHERS THAT HAVE A SIMILAR DYNAMIC. >> ACROSS THE OTHER STOCKS YOU COVER, WHICH DO YOU EXPECT TO BE THE MOST AFFECTED BY WHAT NVIDIA REPORTS? >> SO THERE'S A FEW. ONE IS CERTAINLY AMD. THEY'RE SORT OF THE UP AND COMER IN THIS SPACE. THEY DON'T HAVE -- THEY HAVE SPECTACULAR PRODUCTS TO NVIDIA, BUT THEY DON'T HAVE THE SAME ECOSYSTEM. ANOTHER ONE IS BROADCOM. WE HAVE A BUY RATING ON THAT STOCK. THAT COMPANY ASSISTS WEB SCALE COMPANIES DEVELOP THEIR OWN SPECIALIZED AI CHIPS. AND THEN THERE ARE A COUPLE OF OTHER READS LIKE TESLA, WHICH IS TRYING TO BUILD AN AI TRAINING CLOUD SERVICE CALLED DOJO THAT'S STILL IN THE PROCESS OF GETTING WORKED OUT. AND THEN A MORE OFF THE RUN ONE IS MONOLITHIC POWER. THAT COMPANY IS A POWER MANAGEMENT COMPANY, AND THESE CHIPS ARE NEEDED AS COMPLEMENTARY DEVICES TO ALL OF THESE AI VENDORS' CHIPS. >> HOW MUCH VOLATILITY DO YOU EXPECT IN NVIDIA STOCK ACTION, NOT JUST WHEN THE NUMBERS COME OUT, BUT PERHAPS EVEN THROUGHOUT THE CALL, EVEN IN THE FIRST DAY OR SO AFTER EARNINGS? I RECALL THE LAST COUPLE OF EARNINGS REPORTS, THE STOCK WOBBLED AFTER THE INITIAL NUMBERS CAME OUT. BUT WHEN JENSON GOT ON THE CALL, TALKED ABOUT THE QUARTER, IT RECOVERED QUITE NICELY. >> I ANTICIPATE SORT OF SIMILAR REACTION. I CAN'T SO MUCH NAIL DOWN EXACTLY WHAT THE MOVE IS GOING TO BE ON THE PRINT. MY UNDERSTANDING FROM READING OTHER REPORTS SUGGESTS THAT OPTIONS ARE PRICING IN SOMETHING MORE OF A 10% MOVE ON THE RESULT, WHICH IS SIMILAR FROM WHAT WE HAVE SEEN IN THE LAST SEVERAL QUARTERS. THAT SORT OF MOVE WOULDN'T SHOCK ME IN EITHER DIRECTION. BUT WHEN JENSON STARTS TALKING ABOUT THE LONGER TERM GROWTH DRIVERS THAT I THINK ARE VERY WELL IN TACT, AND NVIDIA'S POSITION IN THE MARKET, WHICH I THINK IS ALSO WELL IN TACT AS THE NUMBER ONE SUPPLIER, I THINK THE STOCK WILL CONTINUE TO DO WELL. >> NVIDIA RIGHT NOW IS NECK AND NECK WITH MICROSOFT IN THE MARKET CAP RACE TO THE EXTENT THERE IS A MARKET CAP RACE, BUT APPLE HAS PULLED AHEAD. IT'S BEEN PRETTY MUCH ALL YEAR, A STORY OF THESE THREE HORSES KIND OF TRADING PLACES. TO WHAT DEGREE SHOULD INVESTORS GET USED TO NVIDIA BEING ONE OF THE MOST VALUABLE COMPANIES, PUBLIC COMPANIES IN THE MARKET. >> WE'VE WRITTEN QUITE A LOT ABOUT THIS. WE EXPECT NVIDIA TO BE AT OR NEAR THE TOP FOR SOME TIME. YOU THINK ABOUT TECHNOLOGIES THAT ARE BEING DEVELOPED AND HOW OVER THE LONG-TERM THESE NEW AND EXCITING THINGS, EVEN IF YOU GO THROUGH A PERIOD OF DISILLUSIONMENT THAT LONGER TERM THEY BECOME A MAJOR PART OF OUR LIVES. THE INTERNET COMES TO MIND AS A SIMILAR EXAMPLE. LONGER TERM COMPANIES THAT HAVE A MEANINGFUL, LET'S SAY TOP POSITION IN SUCH A MARKET WIND UP HAVING A VERY STRONG POSITION LONGER TERM THAN WE THINK. NVIDIA IS LIKE THAT. WE EXPECT THEM TO BE VERY LARGE AND AMONG THE STOCK MARKET'S MOST IMPORTANT STOCKS FOR SOME TIME TO GO. >> ALL RIGHT

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