Allan Lichtman predicted Trump would win in 2016 (WashingtonPost, Sept. 23, 2016)

Alan J lickman distinguished professor of History American University in Washington DC the 13 keys are an historically based prediction system that were founded on the study of every American presidential election from 1860 to 1980 and I've since used them prospectively to predict often well ahead of time the results of all eight elections from 1984 to 2012 the keys basically assess the strength and performance of the party holding the White House there were 13 Keys an answer of true on these true false questions always favors the reelection of the party in power and if six or more of the 13 keys are false the party in power the party holding the White House is a predicted loser any six or more early on the keys were inconclusive that is remember six or more in the party in power as a predicted loser and for some time there were five keys out against the incumbent [Music] Democrats and since that time as we discussed last time that six key has turned against the Democrats and that is the third party key which is based upon an assessment that you would expect a third-party candidate in this case the libertarian Gary Johnson to get 5% or more of the vote that's a big sign of discontent with the party holding the White House and so again on the knife edge you had exactly six fatal Keys against the incumbent Democrats and remember this was before the sex tape this was before any of those allegations and before other things emerged Donald Trump's severe and unprecedented problems with bragging about sexual assault and then having 10 or more women coming out and saying yes that's exactly what you did this is without precedent but it didn't change a key by the narrowest of possible margins the keys still point to a trump Victory however there are two major qualifications and I'm not a hedger I've never qualified before in 30 years of prediction qualification number one it takes six keys to count the party imp power out and they have exactly six keys and one key could still flip as I recognized last time the third party key that requires Gary Johnson to get at least 5% of the popular vote he could slip below that which would shift the prediction second qualification is Donald Trump we have never seen someone who is broadly regarded as a history shattering precedent making dangerous candidate who could change the patterns of history that have prevailed since the election of Abraham Lincoln in 1860 I do think this election has the potential to shatter the normal boundaries of American politics and reset everything in including perhaps reset the keys to the White House look I'm not a psychic I don't look in a crystal ball the keys are based on history and they're based on you know a lot of changes in history they're very robust but there can come a time when change is so cat cataclysmic that it changes the fundamentals of how we do our politics and this election has the potential we don't know yet but it has the potential