okay uh so the latest on what is now tropical storm Francine that system that we were talking about yesterday as PT PCT 6 has now become better organized now tropical storm Francine what has changed since yesterday PTC 6 is now Francine also importantly the forecast track has shifted East so yesterday we talked about two scenarios one a more Westward track closer or into the coastline the other more East in a way and the the more East track is becoming uh more apparent now so this suggests lesser impacts for Southeast Texas and more direct severe impacts for Louisana Siana even with the more East track we are still expecting a minor to moderate storm surge flooding for portions of the coastline and we'll talk about that Marine areas Beyond 20 no miles especially will also be impacted with high winds and there will be uh elevated seas in the Marine areas we do have a coastal flood warning that's recently been issued in effect uh starting Tuesday night and I'll show you the map for that in a moment for the land areas as far as the wind warnings tropical storm and hurricane watches have been issued for areas east of High Island so not including our local forecast area there are tropical storm Force watches also in effect for our Coastal water zones 20 to 60 nautical miles offshore we do have better confidence uh compared to yesterday in the track as the center is getting better organized but we still will need to monitor uh for any uh track changes a shift closer to the coast would bring those uh tropical storm force winds at least uh into the area here's a look at the cone and uh watches and warnings uh that were issued at 10 am this morning you can see now Southeast Texas at least our portion of uh of the uh of the area not in the cone uh so what does that mean the center of the system is is less likely to track into our area directly so that hurricane a concern for Hurricane force winds has subsided dramatically and the uh you can see the tropel storm Force the tropical storm watches rather highlighted along the coast in yellow east of High Island uh over to Cameron Louisiana the pink line indicates a hurricane watch uh for the Louisiana coast over to Grand Isle and again so the the the landbased tropical storm headlines are not in our area they are east of our area based on this more Eastward track Francine still forecast to become a hurricane uh over the next 24 to 48 hours so expect some strengthening uh from where it is now which is now a sustained 50 m per hour tropical storm here's a closeup look at where we have tropical storm uh watches and uh hurricane watches in pink tropical storm watches more in the um rose color there orange color again we still have Marine winds in the tropical storm Force area potentially uh off the coast but not not thinking for galeston Bay or the coastal areas the hurricane watch concern a bit further east and you can see that laid out there on this map for Galviston Bay we do have a small craft advisory uh Matagorda Bay as well and Coastal Waters uh south of Freeport uh so the winds will be elevated they will be Gusty but not quite tropical storm force uh in those areas here's a look at the satellite uh loop from this morning you can see those thunderstorms really blossoming down near the center of circulation where we had several areas of thunderstorms and convection uh so again uh starting to become Landing satellite image here's a look at the wind probabilities uh as I said uh the tropical storm Force the tropical storm watches excuse me are not in our land areas not in our counties uh but there are still some scenarios that would bring those winds in so we're going to have to watch uh for any sort of track changes um this map does show about a 30 to 50% chance of some tropical storm force winds along the immediate Coast dropping off dramatically Inland Inland if we were to get these level winds it would they would arrive uh Tuesday night uh into Wednesday morning looking at the probability ilities for 58 M hour sustained winds you can see here the chances are much lower sometimes we'll use this as a proxy for power outages and so for this level of of sustained winds you can see the focus is much more on Louisiana uh although there are some some very low probabilities uh on our Northern for our Northern coastal areas and then for the hurricane force wind probabilities again you see the focus is is even more so on uh Louisiana coast talking about storm surge coastal flooding now uh these are the latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center storm surge unit you can see for areas north of Freeport over to High Island and including Galviston Bay we're looking at 1 to three feet of storm surge uh for those areas this corresponds to water levels up around four to five feet above me lower low water so you know we've seen some of these levels before uh with Alberto and barl and these correspond to minor to moderate coastal flooding so even with the more Eastern track we still get an uh elevated water uh and some high seas uh a bit of a a wave runup setup situation so uh we can still have issues even though the track is more easterly uh but if you look not too far to the east we're talking about 3 to 5 feet of Surge and even 5 to 10 feet of surge uh for portions of the Louisiana coast so uh much bigger concern out there focusing in again on the coastal flood warning that I just spoke of you can see the counties that are included in that in Darker green and a coastal flood advisory uh South of the warning area where we are looking at even potential for some minor coastal flooding there uh but modern coastal flooding again in the uh in the coastal flood warning area so uh we've been through a few storms that have had this before so you have an idea what to expect uh we would expect quite a few a bit of High Surf as well and some beach erosion on the Gulf Coast beaches talking about the timing of storm surge now uh we've got a couple of uh points to show uh showing our uh storm surge model here and what you see is uh fairly minor uh departures through the day on Tuesday then things really uh poent pick up potentially Tuesday night and Wednesday morning so that high tide coming in late Tuesday night Wednesday morning looks to be the highest water levels um the spread there gives an idea of different scenarios uh you know if you look at the mean there the black line about four feet above mean lower low water uh but the high end of the range closer to five feet so again we we do see minor to some moderate impacts at those levels this is for Eagle Point so this will be typical around galston Bay uh the galston bay entrance much the same the mean there uh over four feet um but the the high end of the range a bit above 5T above mean lower the water uh and you can see some of the impacts in the table below timing once again the same uh for Freeport uh really starting with the High Tides Tuesday night Wednesday morning U that's the the tide cycle we're most concerned about uh again water levels four to five feet in these all these areas are in that Coastal flood warning so again this is meant to show timing rainfall uh this is a bit less than we were forecasting yesterday again based on that Eastward shift in the track and uh you can see now at the coast you know perhaps for Boliver uh we're looking at uh four to six Ines other coastal areas uh probably more like 2 to four with the darker green uh closer to four right at the coast and then dropping off in City of Houston uh looking at more like a couple of inches of rain uh there will be a sharp cut off on the west side so uh but the bottom line is the the really heaviest amounts of rain look to be offshore and then over on into Louisiana that's where the greatest flash flood threat is and the flash flood threat uh continues here to be shown as far as uh our excessive rainfall Outlook for Tuesday on the left and Wednesday on the right you can see the uh the slight risk is really confined to the coastal counties the areas you see in yellow uh we do have a marginal risk even into Harris and the City of Houston uh you know this is conditional based on some heavier downpours perhaps edging up into that area um but again the highest rainfall offshore and then on Wednesday you can see that red area that's where there's a even greater concern uh of flash flooding uh over into Lake Charles on over through Louisiana closer to the track of the hurricane um and we do have a slight risk in our Southeast zones as well on Wednesday just a quick summary of marine impacts I showed you the uh wind related warnings out there now now uh you know we do expect this uh system now tropical storm Francine to be be a hurricane by the time it crosses closest to our Coastal Waters uh timing Tuesday night and peaking during the day on Wednesday as far as the the winds and seas um you can see uh more details there on uh the high winds uh sustained tropical storm at the at the peak of the event tomorrow uh some wind gusts possible up to near gale force in any kind of squalls out ahead of that plan right now for a landfalling hurricane Wednesday afternoon or evening somewhere between the Texas Louisiana border and uh or along the Louisiana coast um as is pointed out here and we talked about yesterday the forecast cone not the skinny line in the middle is what we should be looking at so there is some still potential for deviation left or right but less than what we were looking at yesterday finally uh key takeaways uh we now have tropical storm Francine uh the track has shifted Eastward suggesting lesser impacts for Southeast Texas and more direct severe impacts for Louisiana that said we still are looking at uh the potential for some minor to moderate coastal flooding uh along the coast and along Galviston Bay as far as land areas are concerned the high the wind related watches are east of High Island and especially across the Louisiana coast we do have higher confidence now uh as the center is just now becoming better organized and all track models are in pretty good agreement uh but we will need to continue to monitor of course