Intro hello everyone and welcome to grandstand Sports data your goto channel for sports statistics and unbiased handicapping in today's video we're giving you the week one NFL power ratings along with the results to some of our betting factors for that week one slate so let's get right into it okay so in this video for the power Playoff Teams Outside Top 5 ratings we're only going to cover the top five in depth then we're going to give you our playoff projections because usually what we do is after a week we run another simul ation of our model so week after week we'll run another simulation and it'll give us the playoff projections who the Super Bowl winner is so you may get a different one depending on the results every single week we like to do this just to keep tabs on the league but going forward you could expect in these videos the top 10 the playoff projections and then also the betting factors results uh this is just going to be the playoff teams that just missed the top five the only team that would be excluded from that would be the Buffalo Bills we just wanted to give you the top top 10 but Buffalo does miss the playoffs according to our model and running another simulation they become that odd team out when it comes to teams like you know as you can see here your Texans your chargers your Dolphins uh the Ravens you know the AFC is kind of deep and believe it or not the model thinks that the Buffalo Bills out of all those teams and some of the teams that are going to be mentioned in the top five they're going to be that odd man out so let's take a look at the top five and who the model has as you can see coming in at number Top 5 five is the Cincinnati Bengals and I think this is more of I I know that they lost the football game against the New England Patriots they were rated so high remember in that 2024 Sim video that we had they were 16 and one so that was their projection so that's basically saying that they were favored in 16 NFL games and not a favorite in one I will say that if you're looking for a team to be the odd man out it may be this team because of their fundamental factors what do you mean when I say the fundamental factors well the fact that they two wide receiv is bitching and complaining that they're not getting paid uh borrow didn't really look the same yesterday they always have a slow start every single year but if they don't get that wide receiver situation figured out they will most certainly be the odd team out especially with how much depth there is in the AFC you could see from our model their offense hasn't looked too hot we had them fourth in the NFL according to the model in our last rating so that would be the preseason rating as you could see up here but they dropped down one spot number five with that loss in New England offense is down in every category uh compared to our projections from last week when we say last week this is our preseason projections so this would be the actual week which would be week one defense a little bit better but remember they did play new New England Patriots you will see over here our projections in terms of the longterm our model thinks are going to go 12 and five now and still win that a and still get that number two seed in the AFC next week they do have Kansas City they may be starting off 0 and2 and if you're like I said if you're into the fundamental factors and looking at who may be the odd man out Buffalo May jump over Cincinnati I think so I kind of disagree with the model I think Cincinnati may drop down if they can't get this train on the tracks and buffalo will hop over them then at number four and it's another losing team in the week one slate it's the New York chats we had them at number two in terms of our model coming in remember we even had them in the play uh the Super Bowl losing to the San Francisco 49ers we thought it was going this matchup that just happened was going to be a Super Bowl preview thing is here is that my biggest knock at looking at New York you can look at all the numbers you want you can hit the mute button and take a look and if you don't want to hear me talk but I will say if they're going to run the ball 10 times you know I think they started off the game with eight straight runs with Bree Hall breea is a good bit football player don't get me wrong and you guys who love fantasy he's probably a great football player to you as well if you have a team with Aaron roders as your quarterback that's who it starts with that guy should be setting up the run so your your offense should be built on Aaron Rogers arm and then with Aaron Rogers arm he should be creating space for Bree Hall to run not the other way around you were as good as dead if you were a New York Jets fan as soon as you seen that that's craziness to me Nathaniel Hackett a very overrated coach I thought he was going to be better as an offensive coordinator we saw him as a disaster when he was a head coach in Denver I thought that he was pretty good in terms of an offensive coordinator it seems like he's just Aaron Rogers buddy and you need a coach at the end of the day Aaron roders may I say is doesn't look the most invested guy on the football field as well and that's going to need to change like I said they need to flip this and get also get this train I mean you can't overreact to one week but I have to say the offense needs to be built around Aaron Rogers arm and that will create more for the Run game not the other way around at number three and he has a team who I think does a good mix and it's the Dallas Cowboys they're coming in number three because I was impressed by the victory that they had they jumped up five spots according to the model they were Number Eight coming in they beat a good team in terms of Cleveland I know some people are going to say good team they don't even got a quarterback that's all they don't have I've been preaching this the whole preseason I said Watson it's only a matter of time he looks checked out he looks like he got his money and he's gone mentally gone physically gone he's literally I don't want to make this about Cleveland because we are talking about the Cowboys but with Watson it's simple three-step drop if his main receiver is not open roll to the right that's it that's the recipe that's the ingredient that's it teams have figured it out Cowboys being one of them you can see the Cowboys didn't have the greatest offensive game just according to their offensive numbers they did put up 33 points remember that was from defense as well but they will they did play a tough defense Cleveland's defense they are a well-rounded team it's just that they're missing the quarterback defense now for Dallas they did a great job obviously they would against the DeShaun run offense I guess this is more about Cleveland as you hear me talking and you know I I'm saying it's not about them but it really was they were really in accomplice and Dallas really took advantage of it Dallas against some good teams will be the real test going forward and number two defending champs is the Kansas City Chiefs my take is probably very similar to every El everybody else's take last year was their weakest team they won the Super Bowl this year they got better I don't know what to tell you I mean their defense is the only thing that you can look at from these numbers and say hey you know what they may not be able to win with that remember spagnolo is the defensive coordinator guys won Super Bowls on Super Bowls on Super Bowls the defense will be ready come playoff time Andy Reid will be ready come play off time Patrick Mahomes will be ready come play off time I wouldn't worry about this football team now coming in at number one it's the San Francisco 49ers they look great against a good team that's right I still think the Jets are going to be a good team even though I will knock them a few times but remember you only have a sample size of one week I think in the long run New York will be there at the end of the year San Francisco will be there at the end of the year Kansas City will be there at the end of the year the fact is San Francisco is loaded at every single position much like I would say Cleveland but they have the quarterback and they also have the system with the quarterback so Shanahan with his system can get it done with just about anybody if you were to call anyone the quarterback Whisperer I would call Shanahan the quarterback Whisperer but I will say this when it comes to Super Bowls or it comes to Conference Finals it comes to those games for some reason Shanahan shrinks a little he's got a little bit of shrinkage time with Matt Ryan with Atlanta in the Super Bowl the list goes on and on and on something about huge games and not being I guess fully prepared compared to his opponent he kind of shrivels a little bit you can see that defense kind of took a hit compared to their preseason rankings I think that may have been garbage time when it came to the Jets because the Jets really didn't do much at all couldn't run the ball efficiently had basically no explosiveness Aaron roders was showing some glimmers with his arm I thought he played pretty good when it came to throwing on that San Francisco defense he didn't do enough of it they were trying to work on Bree Hall and work on that play action and all that and I just think it has to be the other way around that's talking about the Jets talking about the 49ers though I think that the NFC this is not the hardest it takes I mean it may be people say that the NFC is deep I think the AFC is much deeper than the NFC I think think San Francisco may walk to the Super Bowl okay so after rerunning our Playoff Projection simulation after the week one results in combined with our predictions uh our preseason predictions as well we don't kind of let those go we kind of do a weighted average that way we don't overreact right you don't want to overreact to only one week if that was the case the New Orleans Saints would probably this be the superl champion and that's just not the case but with that said we have the Kansas City Chiefs coming on top of the s Francisco 49ers according to our model what are the path to victories for both teams well the path for the Chiefs would be defeating the Bengals in the AFC Championship also beating the Baltimore Ravens after a first round Buy in that divisional round the Bengals would be defeating the Houston Texans in that divisional round and then some of the teams that listed that would make the playoffs would be Chargers Ravens Jets Texans and dolphins out of the AFC so like we've been saying the model really doesn't like the Buffalo Bills and has them out on the other side for the NFC San Francisco's path would be to defeat the Dallas Cowboys in the NFC Championship also defe defeat the New Orleans Saints and then the Cowboys would be defeating the Detroit Lions in the divisional round teams that would make it other than them would be the Atlanta Falcons Philadelphia Eagles New Orleans Saints and the Chicago beiz so you would see no Green Bay Packers in that model simulation now moving on to one of my Betting Factors Results favorite things it's the fundamental factors remember we've covered these in almost each of the videos that we we have uh shown for our previews our matchup previews now this was for every game on the Slate just starting with some of the better ones when it comes to matchups and favorites on a high total remember we talked about this favorites on a high total is any total that's 45 or above you would bet the favorite because it would be a more likely odds that they would um cover here we did it both on the money line and that would be the blue characteristics so if you see it in blue it'll be the money line win loss so teams that you know were the edge in this specific Factor went six and0 it's 100% win percentage and your units in terms of betting would you would be up 3.54 units which would be for every every dollar you bet you would be up $354 for each of those dollars in profit that would be a 59% rate of return now in yellow you will see the spread money line so if you bet those teams but you bet them on the spread instead of the money line you would have come in at three and three this would be a 50% win percentage you'd be down 0.27 units and your rate of return would be minus 4.5 so now that you know let's look at some of the ones that were profitable one would be dogs on a low total this went three and five you say oh three and five but remember it was underdogs underdogs on a low total going three and five was only a 37.5 win percentage but you came up in the betting odds at 0.75 units that's a 99.4% return in terms of the spread same result in terms of the win loss but that does not equate into a betting profit as you would down 2.27 units uh by favorite did not apply during this neither did rest in differential even those those will in the next upcoming matchups uh now that some teams will play it on a Friday Thursday that's what rest differential means so the days of rest whatever team has more days of rest that's the team that will have the edge now let's look at the 620 mile rule I know I've I've kind of you know described this a number of times throughout our videos but it's any team that travels 620 miles through the air to uh for an away game that home team would have the betting Edge 7 and4 on the money line 63.6 in terms of win percentage but down in terms of the betting world with 0.49 it was the it was basically the same record in terms of the spread but it did actually better in terms of the betting Market you would have been up 1.96 units instead of down 0.49 units it's a 17.8 rate of return blowout dogs didn't um there was none because it was week one so there was no past uh games before that in terms of divisional dogs so you division uh underdogs they all went 0 and three and that's it's down three units uh one and two on the spread however with a 33% win percentage division unders so those same games with the divisions uh teams within the same division playing each other you wanted to play the under in those games same record as playing the dogs now moving on to the Madden rating the Madden rating in terms of the money line it went 14- one picking game so the team with the better Madden rating ended up being 14 And1 that's a 93.3% win percentage you up 7.54 units in terms of the betting world that's a 50% rate of return now if you only did it for the spread you would have wi 11 and four it would have been 73.3 win percentage and you would have been up 6.01 so a 40% rate of return so the Madden rating doing well in terms of week one now our coaching model if you saw our video that we posted right before our matchup preview we did a Model tutorial and we did it on coaching well that model went 9 and seven on the money line 56% win percentage it was down 0.86 units and if you translate that to cover in the spread it went 500 so 50% and it was down 0 .72 going to run that every week as well wind didn't apply for our weather stat and neither did rain in snow on a home favorite and the basically the basis of this is that homes do better when it rains or snows in their building last would be contrarian pick and this would be any team where their bets are less than 25% on the spread that means that the public is on that other team so we want to go the other way those teams went one in one on the money line it didn't make any money it was down 0.35 and then it also just barely missed out on money on the spread at 0.09 uh units like I said we're going to continuously keep running this week by week and then at the end of the season you're going to have a good sample size of what factors are working and what factors are not working and it's going to help you plug and play as the season goes on so make sure to subscribe make sure to like share it with anybody that you know will get 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