WHO WILL WIN?: The State Of The 2024 Election (9/13/24)

the 2024 race for president is currently a dead Heap between both candidates with the RCP polling average essentially being well within the margin of error and polls only deviating about a point or so from where we were back in the national average in 2016 when Hillary Clinton was leading Donald Trump by 2.4 so we're going to talk about what the applications are for this as well as the general state of the race which candidate has the advantage and of course which states they have the built-in Advantage so we're going to get to all of that in just a second but first if you're new to the Channel please consider subscribing down below and liking this video if you enjoy so this is not going to be a prediction video more so just analyzing where the presidential contest stands at this point in time again we're a little more than 50 days out from election day and early voting is already starting to begin in a lot of important States and so far the national average has kamla Harris up on Donald Trump by just 1.5% now that's smaller than Hillary Clinton's lead at this point in time of 2.4 but it's significantly smaller smaller than Joe Biden's lead at this point in time back in September of 2020 where he led Donald Trump by 7.4 So currently if you're to take the polls at face value KLA Harris is actually in the weakest position of any Democrat against Donald Trump and that includes Hillary Clinton so if you take that to his logical conclusion You could argue that KLA Harris is on track to lose to Donald Trump by a larger margin than Hillary Clinton now for some caveats and other reasons we'll talk about I don't think that's necessarily the case I think the polling landscape ape and the political landscape in general is different than in 2016 I'm not saying that Donald Trump isn't the favorite or KLA Harris isn't the favorite but I don't think you can really compare two elections eight years apart with totally different issues totally different turnout differentials I mean in 2016 the number one issue obviously besides the economy was immigration so on and so forth and while immigration is starting to make a Forefront you have foreign policy with what's going on in Ukraine and Israel taking Center Stage you have of course the economy always a big issue inflation which really wasn't as big of a talking point back in 2016 as it is now so there are obviously big differences and abortion is probably the biggest because back in 2016 when row was still in place there really wasn't much National discussion on abortion I mean there might have been a question during one of the debates but there was really no serious policy implications that could be made and this time around it's very different because now that there really is no National Standard for abortion and this is sort of left to the states Democrats are able to use the issue to turn out their voters in order to vote in favor of abortion rights as opposed to uh back in 2016 when abortion really wasn't a major issue on either side so of course you had your Evangelical who were voting against abortion and of course you had Democrats and liberals voting in favor of it but it really wasn't a deciding factor in their vote now I think you're going to see more of these Suburban women coming out on this issue and supporting Harris because of it so that's really where the national polls stand right now we're going to dive into the state polls now obviously if we take a look at the election map there really are just seven states around the country which is really remarkable that are going to decide the presidential election and really if you want to break it down further just a few 100,000 voters in these states are ultimately going to pick the president for over 300 million so that's really what's at stake in November obviously places like North Carolina Georgia you would argue might have a slight Advantage for the Republican but if you take a look at where the polls are now and I guess we could start with Georgia Donald Trump is only up by .3 here now in 2020 he was actually up by 1.3 and in 2016 he was up by two so if you take those numbers Donald Trump is actually in his weakest position polling wise in Georgia that he's ever been in so that's obviously alarm bells for Donald Trump and potentially good news for KLA Harris now you could argue maybe that's because she's energizing black turnout in metro Atlanta the Atlanta metro area becoming as blue as it has been is really the reason why Democrats are so competitive here I mean if we go back to just 20168 years ago Donald Trump won the state of Georgia fairly comfortably w by five points and in the Metro Atlanta counties Hillary Clinton's margins are much smaller than where Joe Biden's would be four years later and you know in 2020 Georgia was the closest state only decided by around 12,000 votes so a huge shift and again if we go back to 2016 Donald Trump won Georgia by about 200,000 votes and you see his overall total of the vote being around 2.1 million Hillary clints being 1.9 million in 2020 there was a big jumping turnout Joe Biden getting 2.47 million ion and Donald Trump getting around 2.46 million that jump and turnout and population really explains why Georgia is so competitive and why Georgia isn't really the ruby red state that it was back in 2012 2008 2004 so on and so forth now if we look at Comm standing in the state of Georgia she's underwater by six points with a 51% unfavorable rating to a 45% favorable now I would imagine Donald Trump's numbers are probably worse here but Donald Trump has overcome steeper obstacles in 2016 and 2020 his unfavorables were in the double digits in many of these states and he still ended up winning them so I don't really think it's as much of a factor but I do like to point to it sometimes because kamla Harris's numbers are Miles better than Joe Biden's before he dropped out of the race I think Joe Biden was underwater by 25 points in Georgia so that just goes to show you that KLA Harris is basically at where a standard Democrat would be in the state now if we go on to North Carolina this is another state that Republicans shouldn't really have an issue winning but according to the polls it's extremely competitive the latest Quinn ofak poll has kamla Harris up by three bringing the overall average here to just Trump plus. one so essentially a dead heat and you know North Carolina polls aren't really a stranger to overestimating Democrats in 2016 and in 2020 both times the aggregate of RCP overstated Democratic support the only time this really deviated was in 2022 when Ted Bud was actually overestimated he was up in the polls by four to five he only end up winning by like three points so you know if presidential polling Trends continue in this direction you could expect Trump to maybe win North Carolina by three take a look at kamla's unfavorables here she's only underwater by around two points so more popular North Carolina than Georgia very fascinating since North Carolina Was Won by Donald Trump in 2020 by around 1.3 and of course in 2016 It Was Won by him by three and a half points now in 2016 Georgia voted to the right of North Carolina and 2020 voted to the left 2024 could be a big open question because we could potentially see if the polling is accurate a state like North Carolina narrowly going to kamla Harris which would be really politically Earth shattering because typically North Carolina is always seen as this lean Republican state Georgia is the state that's more so drifting left so if Georgia were to vote Republican North Carolina to vote Democrat you'd basically go back to the 2008 map of the South with Virginia really being the lone Southern State along with North Carolina voting blue and the rest of the South voting red so that would be interesting obviously we're going to monitor these polls as the election goes on but that really could just be down to increased turnout in the Research Triangle Trump basically being maxed out in the rural parts of the state and really not making any significant inroads in the suburbs and I think that's really his biggest weakness because Republicans should be running away with this election given the state of the economy Joe Biden's unpopularity any Republican should be on track to be the at least the favorite according to the polls and we're not really seeing that this time around in fact it's really becoming just a super vicious uh tie essentially between the two candidates and this is likely to be another election where the results come down to the wire so that's really just because Donald Trump has a ceiling I suppose in the Suburban areas and he really has maxed out rural parts of the country now if we move on to Pennsylvania this state's been surprisingly poor for kamla Harris and we're actually going to talk about it in another video because Pennsylvania's at least her internal numbers here are very bad especially with men and that's a problem that Hillary Clinton had back in 2016 and that was the same year that Pennsylvania voted Republican for the first time since 1988 in a presidential election so if the trend continues Donald Trump could actually see himself winning the state of Pennsylvania and probably winning the election because if Donald Trump were to win Pennsylvania that puts him at 238 he would really only have to win North Carolina which should be a state he should win fairly easily and Georgia and he would get 270 electoral votes and kamla Harris could run the table in Nevada Arizona Wisconsin and Michigan and still not become president so whoever wins Pennsylvania and Georgia really wins the White House now if Kamala wins North Carolina that puts Donald Trump in a really tough spot because he would have to win Pennsylvania Georgia Arizona and one other state whether that be Nevada Wisconsin or Michigan so if Kamala actually does make a serious play for North Carolina and somehow wins there it puts Donald Trump in an incredibly difficult position position because he would have to win Michigan or Wisconsin uh and then obviously hold on to Georgia and Arizona which so far the polls I believe still have him in the lead there or slightly trailing now if we go over to Michigan this is a state where Harris is only up by 08 the latest pull out of Insider Advantage puts Trump at a one-point lead this state would be really surprising now Pennsylvania and Michigan typically vote together the last time they deviated in terms of their presidential picks was back in 19 76 when Gerald Ford who was from Michigan won his home state but lost Pennsylvania every election since then both states have voted the exact same way so if that's any indication what we're going to see in November you could potentially see Donald Trump win Michigan and Pennsylvania while somehow losing Wisconsin which would kind of break politics I would think because conventional wisdom says at least according to 2016 and 2020 that Wisconsin's a state that's to the right of Michigan and Pennsylvania and the midterm election results sort of highlight that the govern's race was much closer and also you saw the Republican Ron Johnson hold on to his seat while the Republican candidate in Pennsylvania lost so it is interesting that's kind of what the polling is saying although polls in Wisconsin typically have overstated Democratic support I mean if we look at at this point in history Donald Trump was losing in Wisconsin by 6.3 in 2020 and four points in 2016 so the fact that Harris is pulling so bad here could be a massive red flag for her campaign meaning that she's actually on track to lose state by several points now at the end of the day I don't see that happening I think this election is going to be a point or two in all these Battleground States no matter what but it is pretty concerning for her she's also only underwater here by one point so her favorability is essentially a dead heat uh but again these favorability polls could also be sort of inaccurate now if we move on to Wisconsin this is a state that I had previously said would decide the election and now it looks like this is a state that Harris has more of an advantage again she's up by 1.8 here we talked about how Ron Johnson won here in 2022 and the incumbent Democratic governor so Wisconsin is a split ticket State and you're probably going to see Tammy Baldwin do several points better than Harris uh in 2016 and in 2020 Wisconsin was only decided by less than a percentage point in 2020 Joe Biden only won the state by 6 and of course in 2016 Donald Trump won the state by 7 so incredibly close and this state's really going to be decided by turnout and the margins in the Suburban counties around Milwaukee and the real problem for Donald Trump is that I've really seen no evidence that he's going to improve with Suburban voters we've seen better numbers for white working class rural voters potentially for minorities as well but in these sort of white Suburban counties there really doesn't seem to be any movement in his Direction and honestly I could see kamla Harris potentially doing slightly better or about the same as Joe Biden which means Donald Trump would really have to run up the score in the rest of Wisconsin in places like Green Bay Winnebago County and the rest of rural Wisconsin because Dane County is probably going to tack more left than where it was in 2020 we saw in that Supreme Court election that the Democratic candidate got over 80% here so if that's the case in November Donald Trump really needs to run up the margins in the wow counties and in the rest of the state or else he's going to lose and that could potentially be why the polls in Wisconsin are so much better for Harris as opposed to Michigan and Pennsylvania now finally we move on to the Southwest with Nevada and Arizona in Nevada Kam Harris is up by 6% now this is pretty significant because typically Republicans are overstated in Nevada polls so if KLA Harris is up in Nevada by 6 it's very likely that she's going to win the state by several points and that really wouldn't be out of Step as to where Nevada has typically voted in 2020 the state went to Joe Biden by 2.4 and in 2016 the state went to Hillary Clinton by 2.4 so the state has been essentially stagnant and actually tacked to the right as opposed to the rest of the nation in 2020 so as it stands today kamla Harris is probably the favorite in Nevada now I'm not going to really categorize the rest of these states but I'm just saying that based on all of the polling that we've seen pretty much every election cycle has overstated Republican support whether it's 2016 2020 or 2022 every single time the Republican candidate was doing better in the polls than they actually performed I think might be wrong about 2020 but I know in 2016 and 2022 certainly that was the case and even in 2018 with Dean heler I think he was doing much better in the polls against Jackie Rosen than his actual performance finally we move on to Arizona surprisingly enough this is actually the best swing state for Donald Trump right now he's up by 1.6 which probably gives him the state overall Joe Biden was leading in Arizona by five points at this point in 2020 and in 2016 Trump was leading here by just 1.6 he ended up winning the state by three and a half so if this is any indication Donald Trump might in a good position in Arizona lose Nevada which doesn't really sound out of Step because that's usually the way these elections have gone since 2008 and then if Donald Trump were to win Georgia which is where the polls have this right now and typically Georgia votes in line with its polls just need to hold on to North Carolina and win one of the Russ Bel States I think Pennsylvania would be the most likely that would put him at 281 so that's really all Donald Trump needs KLA Harris needs Pennsylvania or it makes her path a little bit tricky now again if she somehow pulls off an upset in North Carolina that completely throws the map into chaos but as it stands right now I think KLA Harris's most difficult States seem to be Arizona Pennsylvania and Michigan according to her own internal polls and that's something we're going to talk about in a future video so stay tuned for that but anyway that's it for today's video please leave a thumbs up if you enjoyed subscribe to the channel hit the Bell notification so you miss any more videos I put out as always again thank you all for watching and I hope to see you in the next one