Why over 5.5 wins for MSU football is a LOCK; 2024 MSU schedule setting up nicely for 6+ wins

no bowl games in the last two years for Michigan State chapter one of the rebuild with Jonathan Smith but is over five and a half wins a lock for Michigan State football yeah we think so let's go you are locked on Spartans your daily podcast on the Michigan State Spartans part of the locked on podcast Network your team every day is episode of Locked on sparts is brought to you by Game Time download the game time app create an account and use code locked on all one word locked on for $20 off your first purchase Spartan friends Spartan family locked on Spartans listeners thank you all so much for tuning in to locked on Spartans your team in green and white five days a week please rate review subscribe comment below on YouTube if you agree that over five and a half wins is a lock for Michigan State or if you disagree comment below too please if you're listening on podcast rate US five stars reach out to us at lockdown Spartans gmail.com and enough with the housekeeping let's talk financials right now let's let's talk some good hard-earned economic advice because hey our friends over at FanDuel over the weekend they dropped the win totals for teams around the country for the 2024 football season and your Michigan State Spark they have the line set at five and a half that's a pretty familiar number it's kind of close to the number if not the number that we've seen the last two off Seasons here in East Lancing and yeah just like every other fan base going into the season we felt good about that number last two years just in case anyone forgot that number didn't hit so why are we feeling so good about over five and a half wins this season is it just because it's the off season and and everyone's undefeated in the off season and we are just chugging the green Kool-Aid that Jonathan Smith is pouring us just like a little bit but not entirely no no no let's talk about why we think that this is a smart bet and just a smart financial decision just to liquidate your whole 401K responsibly and put it all on over five and a half please don't actually do that bet bet responsibly uh now we're not going to even talk about Michigan State first and foremost here we're going to talk about the other teams that Michigan State is playing because you've heard us talk about this up and down this offseason already we will continue to do it the rest of the offseason but we are going to talk about the sandwich that is this schedule it's a slice of bread the meat in the middle and then another slice of delicious soft Wonderbread on the outside so let's talk about that first slice of bread the first four games home against Florida Atlantic at Maryland Prairie View A&M woo and then at Boston College now let's say that hey you know what even in the worst month for Michigan State football you see three in one let's just say it right there I I could very well see Michigan State going four and0 in that stretch now allow me Florida Atlantic it's the ows it's Florida Atlantic okay we're not going to go too in depth on why you should beat them but it's a team that you expect to beat week one Maryland hey toy Lea Tonga aloa he did not get his 18th year of Eligibility granted by the NCAA so now Maryland safe for any you know offseason trans for Action coming up this spring there with Billy Edwards Jr who has thrown the ball 56 times in his career that is going to be what we presume a drop off in quarterback play for Maryland pray riew A&M come on no further comment for that one and then Boston College yes they went seven and six last year but they got a turnover prone quarterback he threw 15 touchdowns last year 14 interceptions Bill O'Brien steps in as the new head coach and hey guys Vegas isn't too high on Boston College right now in the golden eagles their win totals are just four and a half that's basically Vegas telling you that this team is probably going to stink this year so again let's say you don't even go undefeated let's say you Dro that road game at Maryland because well dang it we can never get over Mike Loxley and those terrains you're three in one okay we're kind of dealing with this in a somewhat worst case scenario now in the sandwich now we get to the middle four games is it just the raw meat in the middle because it's Ohio State at home and at Oregon and then Iowa at home and at Michigan those first two games Ohio State at Oregon let's just focus on remaining alive let's just focus on having all of our limbs attached to our body after those two games now Iowa maybe maybe I you you almost beat them last year just took some competent coaching and just a slightest bit of execution in the fourth quarter for a road win at Iowa and I know that they canned their offensive coordinator he stepped away or what have you with ference's kid not necessarily a splash higher though with Tim Lester as their offensive coordinator so that's going to be another ugly game first team to 20 kind of game but it's at Spartan Stadium maybe Michigan state is a slight twoo favorite in that game and then you go to Michigan now I know that there's a lot of offseason uh turnover with Michigan all right and then we're closing the Gap a little bit with them however guys I I believe green and white as much as you do and I hate talking good Michigan but I still think that Gap is pretty big let's say hypothetically though Iowa gets you Tim Lester turns on the Jets and he drops 50 on you you go 0 and four in that stretch that puts us right now at three and four okay five and a half is starting to look a little dicey until we get to our second slice of bread to end this sandwich here because guys this is this is a nice schedule to look at in November Indiana at home at Illinois and then you are back home for your last two games Purdue Ruckers coming to Town let's be serious okay come on let's be Ser all four of those teams I just named have a five and a half win total like Michigan State actually Purdue is only four and a half so that's Vegas telling you that they don't think much about these teams either so let's say hypothetically you know what I know right now as things stand in the middle of February we're feeling really good about that stretch let's say some injuries happen Michigan State isn't the team that we all thought they were going to be or maybe one of the four teams I just named that they are a spicier Squad than any of us thought let's say you just go three and one you lose the road game let's call it at Illinois but you beat Indiana you beat Purdue and you beat Ruckers at Spartan Stadium okay you go three and one guys that was kind of like worst case scenarios things stand right now I know there's a lot of questions with this team but there's also questions with a lot of other teams that we just named off that's a six and six record you can talk yourself into hey that first month of the Season sparty's just going out to a four and0 start and then hey in the middle of the season in those four games sure we lose to the Buckey sure we lose to the Ducks but we pick up a game against Iowa and then yet if you're feeling hot this off season let's say we shock the world and we beat Michigan you're already at six wins right there and that's not even counting the four very getable games you have to end the year now why are we just so confident why are we just discounting that we're going to beat teams like Purdue like Illinois like Indiana I mean for God's sakes we've just come off of two bullist seasons why are we thumping our chest right now well I want to get ahead of it right now it's a five and a half win total like six games should be very getable we're not gunning for like a eight and a half win total right here like yes Michigan state does have holes but with a win total like five and a half you're kind of expected to have holes however you got to like the portal Hall that they've had of course guys like Aiden childes Jack V Tanner Miller guys that were already at Oregon State and know the system of Jonathan Smith of offensive coordinator Brian lingren guys that are very familiar with already what's going to be going on the only thing different is that it's a bigger stadium and more fans they're playing in front of so they can hit the ground running from day one this isn't like another transfer quarterback get that you see that has to learn the system might be a slow build the first month of the Season they're going to hit the ground running because they're already comfortable also guys that you got from the transfer portal like Wayne Matthews a coverage linebacker which tell me if that wasn't an issue for Michigan State last year you've tightened up the interior defensive line with dcoin Dow also Luke Newman from the portal and speaking of offensive lineman like like Luke Newman it's also who you have kept you kept guys like Gino vandar you've kept your two tackles Ethan Boyd Brandon Baldwin so you can grow another year as the offensive line the defensive line and I know it wasn't a world beating unit last year but we're not even asking them to be World beating can you just be an average offensive line and with the interior of Tanner Miller of FCS allamerican Luke Newman and Gino vmark you can expect at least average offensive line play in my opinion especially against these teams that might have you as the the aggressor in the trenches so the other thing too yeah I'm starting to keep piling on last year's uh coaching staff whether it was interm head coach Harlen Barnett or the guy that kind of just let this all fall apart but you could have gotten to six wins last year guys if you just had the slightest modum of competent coaching like you do win that Iowa game if there's a little bit of execution late in the game from the players or the coaches what have you at Ruckers please I do expect any team with a pulse and any coach with a brain as head coach to protect a 17-point lead in the fourth quarter against Ruckers I know that Minnesota game on paper it was a wide margin but really you just score a touchdown two more touchdowns and you win that Minnesota game so you win just just two of the Iowa Ruckers in Minnesota games last year that that gets you at six wins so we're going to talk about maybe why it's not such a stone cold loock we're going to hear from you guys too but first need to talk your ears off about game time the best ticketing app out there folks game time is all about saving you that cheddar there are so many ways that you can save on game time let's say that you know you're going to the concert comedy show or hey a sporting event later on this week just open up your game time app and they're going to have l or not last minute Flash Deals we'll get to that in a little bit they're going to have Flash Deals leading up to the game to assure that you get the best price for that seat or if you're a procrastinator like myself let's say that you're already in town you're across the street from Little Caesars Arena or brein Center if you're going to go to a Michigan State game and you have tickets yet but you're walking into the stadium to go see this game well they got the Flash Deals that are last minute for you that's right the last minute deals over at game time that are available an hour after the game kicks off or tips off or after the show starts they have the deals for you and also hey this just got a deal for you right now when you go to game time use code locked on all one word locked on for $20 off of your first purchase download game time today use code locked on for $20 off your first purchase Again download game time today it's last minute tickets lowest prices guaranteed now hey we're feeling confident after that first segment right now before you go to a bank and drain the ATM of every $20 bill they have so you could just bet it on the over five and a half why maybe is there a Little asteris by this lock that we keep throwing around here um I kind of want to disclaim this I know this might be cheating this might just be a coward's way out here but if at any point in the season Aiden child gets hurt I know that's just one player but that is a very important player if he gets hurt this is all Nolan void like let let's say that uh late or you know what let's go with the the first game of that meat in the sandwich let's say the Buckeyes come to town and they get Aiden Charles on a good hit you know and his collar bone is gone I'm not wishing this to happen this would be devastating I I don't think that the backup quarterback situation is as plug in and play as it is maybe other places I think that's going to be a pretty steep drop off from Aiden Charles to Tommy Schuster who had a nice career over at North Dakota record setting career at North Dakota the best quarterback that they've had and maybe will have for quite some time but there is a steep drop off in play from where Aiden child's could be let's say he starts to hit his ceiling here in a sophomore year and then where Tommy Schuster is so yeah Michigan State could be competitive in a few of these games without Aiden childes but man you're really GNA need this this Crown Jewel of a quarterback in here so let's say the uh the um option of or the uh potential of injury there we go is on the table it's football for crying out loud so that's one reason to tread lightly another reason to tread lightly I'm not so sold on the pass rush this year yes you got Chris Bogle coming back but it's not like he's been a Bosa brother by any means uh yes you did get quind Darius done again for Middle Tennessee State again we're talking about a step up in uh in competition for him and uh yeah beyond that you do lack some pass rush also the secondary well I do feel good about the starters you got some good four-star Talent out there the depth isn't all necessarily there whether it's a safety position or the cornerback position but again I know that those are just some questions that we have on defense but it isn't like we are going for nine wins for this bet we're just trying to scrape our way to six so that's the optimism from me at least and also on Twitter we're gonna go there that's right because 1,000 of you beautiful people voted in this poll that I threw out on Tuesday morning I said Michigan State's win total for 2024 is five and a half wins how confident are you in your pick and why now I gave four options because I really wanted to gauge people's confidence here here option one hammer the over number two leaning the over number three leaning the under and then number four Max betting the under now with 1,000 votes on the dot as things stand right now 54% of you said hammering the over we are feeling spicy about our Spartans this off season 39% of you said leaning the over so I mean that that is a 94% 9 4% vote of confidence for the over now we are a big fade theu podcast here when we're talking betting we love looking at the line we like seeing Oh my God 80% of the Public's on this team well bet on the other team but hey we just saw over the weekend the Super Bowl 70% of the public was on the Chiefs sometimes sometimes the public does win guys so hopefully this is one of these times because four and a half percent of you said leaning the under 1.2% said max betting the under that is some over overwhelming confidence and I know full well like this isn't a scientific PLL I would assume that most of my followers on Twitter are Michigan State fans that might have a slight bias when voting this now there are some Michigan fans like there was one that even commented and he's feeling good about Michigan State's over right now Ben writes in I would lean the over just out of the simple fact that the schedule is a cakewalk I say six and six now of course the Michigan State fans chimed in too uh welcome to MSU coach Smith that was their Twitter handle they said hammering the over Elite portal Hall easy schedule five wins are absolutely guaranteed with almost no shot of losing only two games are guaranteed losses now I do agree that only two games are guaranteed losses but five wins absolutely guaranteed with the capital G um I'll get at that point some some way during the offseason but wow I do like the uh the optimism there Matt writes in I'm hammering the over we almost got to six last season with a half functioning team if Childs can even deliver a little bit and our coaching staff actually coaches six is a certainty not to mention the schedule appears to be set up for Success that is the common theme here no matter who we're talking to it's like yeah not only do we feel good about the roster and you know what Jonathan Smith has done the off season but it's that schedule is just lining up so good this isn't like last year where even before the season starts you're looking down the barrel it's like oh my oh my that that is that is Washington a team that returns almost everybody including a wide receiver room that is better than the Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver room and then oh my goodness you gotta go to Michigan gotta go to Ohio State you gotta play Penn State in a neutral site like oh my the schedule setting up a little easier than last year's bully Detroit wrotes in should have had six last season the home schedule alone looks very possible to go six and one and then Buck Naked that that's his name I don't know if he actually is buck naked right now but that's his name that he goes by just quite simply puts with the head coach shoot that's a Nob brainer so more votes of confidence for Mel Tucker and the Gang and Harland Barnett and anyone else that had their paw all over last year's team including the coordinators uh I'm so excited for this next chapter to begin man man oh man now I do have three other locks that I do like here just for the Big 10 we're going to go down the list of teams really quick Ohio State 10 and a half Oregon 10 and a half Michigan 9 and a half Penn State 9 and a half USC 7 and a half Washington 7 and a half Nebraska 7 and a half Iowa seven and a half Maryland seven and a half the Wisconsin six and a half Ruckers Northwestern Michigan State UCLA Illinois Indiana all five and a half and then Minnesota Purdue rounding it out with four and a half I like Oregon at over 10 and a half I also like Ohio State at over 10 and a half too I could elaborate on that more at a near show and then also Michigan too we'll talk about this a little more tomorrow about other locks around the Big 10 but Michigan I swear I'm not a hater under nine and a half though I'm starting to like that is a tough schedule again we'll get into more of this tomorrow at the end of the show of course we're going to talk about the Penn State basketball game any other news that breaks but we'll go more in depth with the other big 10 picks tomorrow but right now we got a mailbag question this one comes from Chris he writes in at lockdown Spartans at gmail.com with Chip Kelly skipping Town any chance we see Spencer holste take another look at Michigan State now if you were sleeping under a rock or if you just quite frankly don't care about any sports outside of Michigan State you must have missed us over the weekend head coach of UCLA Chip Kelly takes the offensive coordinator role at Ohio State not because he had to not because he was fired and pushed out but because he was willingly stepping down from a head coaching position to take a coordinator role and is just Shameless that is wow it's a dirty business out there anyway now with that departure Chip Kelly left UCLA a 30-day window for anyone to transfer out of the program that happens whenever a head coach leaves their program so the 30-day window is open Spencer holste interior offensive lineman who played at Purdue transferred to UCLA was in the transfer portal in December it was hypothesize that he would be looking a little bit at Michigan State and not for no good reason he is from Grand Rapids so maybe he did want to use his last year of college eligibility in his home state but eventually went back to UCLA okay maybe this changes some things but I gotta say I would be a little surprised if Spencer holste is back on the table just for the fact that well the interior offensive line which is what Spencer plays looks to be pretty set right now at least from a starter standpoint you got Tanner Miller you can guess that that's going to be your center from Oregon State former mid-season All-American for the Beavers okay that's going to be a pretty tough spot to beat out for Center Gino vanmark he didn't come back to Michigan State for no good reason just to be in a battle for that Right Guard or left guard position and then Luke Newman well he did play tackle at Holy Cross at an FCS All-American level he projects that he will be on the interior offensive line so I don't think Spencer holste is going to come here looking to be the first guy off the bench in in the interior offensive line or maybe Luke Newman does win a left tackle job or a right tackle job and then that opens up something in the middle but I would be surprised if Spencer does dip his toes back into the transfer portal and then comes to Michigan State just because the picture of that offensive line is a lot clearer than what it was when he originally entered the transfer portal in December but hey it's football anything can happen especially in this day and age in the transfer portal so I'm not calling it0 percent I'm was calling it a lot lower than what it was when you initially entered the portal in December now we will be back talking basketall here in a hot segment first to talk your ears off about fan duel Sports Book Get Buckets with your first bet on FanDuel America's number one Sportsbook right now new customers get $150 in bonus Bets with any winning $ five bet that's right you don't have to sweat the spread you don't have to worry about laying the points you don't have to go to bed nervous like oh my God are they GNA cover 14 and a half tomorrow it's a it's a $5 bet and hey if you win that is $150 in bonus bets for new customers 150 bucks if your team wins now the NBA hey that is a great time to get in on the gambling action especially at FanDuel where they have quick bets live same game parlays exclusive props and I also love the first basket score of the game props go ahead and check out the menu of NBA action over at FanDuel just visit fanduel.com locked on and shoot your shot it's FanDuel official Sportsbook partner of the NB a all right let's talk some shooty hoops right now uh Michigan State taking on Penn State Big 10 Network 6:30 p.m another road game we'll get to that in a little bit right now I do want to talk a little bit about Bracketology because well as the week starts especially on Tuesday a lot of bracketologists update what they have in the field of 68 here we're going to go with our favorite bracketologist 131 Sports going to try to have him on later this month but he's always one of the best bracketologists out there year in and year out and right now he is Michigan State as a nine seed against eight seeded New Mexico now the one seat in that region would be Arizona so that would be a nice rematch over there in Salt Lake City ESPN Joel lardy Michigan state has a nine seed against eight seated Virginia in yukon's region USA Today an eight seed against nine seated Florida also in Arizona's region CBS Sports and I know that we didn't have like great things to say about Jerry Palms saying saying uh that he's not the greatest bracketologist out there and that graphic that they had over the weekend during the Illinois game with Michigan State as the first four out probably wasn't accurate whatsoever but hey we're gonna eat up any Bracketology we can and let's say that you do trust the Church of Jerry Palm he has Michigan State as a nine seat against Virginia in Arizona's region and the last one we're going to reference here bracketville they have the Spartans as a nine seed against Texas A&M in the Julius marble bowl with Houston as the one seed in that region so consensus eight or nine seed right now as these games keep going on we're going to have some conversations of whether it might actually be advantageous if they lose a few of these games to get a 10 seed or an 11 seed as odd as that sounds but I don't I don't like the idea of playing any one seed in the second round um not to count our chickens before they hatch and just assume we're going to win that eight vers nine game but oh God I'd really rather play a two seed or a three seed and if it takes some losing or you we could really mix it up actually win our way to a six seed that'd be crazy um yeah that might be worth a conversation too before you get to the preview of this game two women's Bracketology have Michigan State on them ESPN a seven seat against 10 seated Alabama now the two seed in that region would be Colorado and if you didn't know for the women's tournament the first weekend of games are at home gym so it would be in bowler Colorado should Michigan State be at Alabama in this hypothetical bracket and also NBC they don't have a bracket they just have seed lines and they have Michigan State as an eight seed for the Women's Basketball team in case you were curious now Penn State this uh I'm gonna just fetch a guess that this will be a little more competitive than it was last time over the holiday break when Michigan State won 92- 61 a game that was so Out Of Reach so early on that Xavier Booker got 15 minutes of action and do you know how bad a blowout has to be for for Xavier Booker to get double digit minutes in this day and age um so that right there is a glaring stat to paint a great picture of just how bad of a beat down it was last time it might be a little different here because Penn State ever since we've played them they're five and five they're 500 but more specifically in the last four games they are three and one double digit Road wins at Ruckers and Indiana and I know that Ruckers stinks out loud this year Indiana maybe their worst team in a generation but still you went on the road in the Big 10 as us Michigan State fans know that is impressive they did that by double digits they also have a 10-point home win against Iowa and their most recent game a five-point Road loss against Northwestern you gotta say I losing to Northwestern on the road by five we're not in the business of moral victories over here for our Spartans but for Penn State that might as well be a moral Victory so this is going to be a harder nitty Lions team to face than we saw in December or or was it early January whatever it was over holiday break um now what is Penn State doing good so far well at home they're not too shabby they are 10 and three at home I will say pretty bad loss to Bucknell in December but they also beat Northwestern and Minnesota at home so 10 and three it's always an odd environment over there too like it's always a half full gym which makes it hard for the opposing team in a way to get their energy off like it's almost like you're just manufacturing your own uh adrenaline in that building so it it is one of the most bizarre places to play basketball we've actually talked about it with Mark Titus last year now he was on Ohio State's basketball team and he said just that like it is so like just empty Barren and just odd that you really just can't catch like the correct Vibe going into that game so hopefully Michigan State can overcome that but what else does Penn State do good on paper will they're really good at holding their opponents uh to bad shooting on the three-point line just 31% from their opponents that is is 46th best in the nation that did not matter last game Michigan State shot 10 of 21 against the NY Lions earlier on they are also top 20 in the nation at turnover percentage they are turning over their opponents 21% of the time now a player that we're gonna keep our eye on Kanye CLE sorry Kanye Clary now he had a really good game against Michigan State last time I don't remember it because there was such a blowout that like you weren't even concerned about what any of the other guys were doing but he did have 21 points against Michigan State the first time this sophomore is averaging 17 points per game with that said he did miss two games recently with an injury and against Northwestern on S on Sunday he was held scoreless so it's been a slow return from his injury that he sustained about two weeks ago so we'll see if he still hampered this 5 foot1 point guard but yeah that is going to be a big battle Tyson Walker versus Clary because yeah he's the straw that stir the drink even as a sophomore too well I Ace Baldwin being a senior I mean he's kind of taking a backseat to this sophomore so we'll have to see it'll be a tough game but Bart tv.com the computers they say Michigan State projected as a 75-70 winner now it be a quad two game Penn State is just right on the cusp of quad 2 so like this is going to be a thing where yeah if Michigan state does win it's quad two right now could slip down to quad three but hey th this is going to be this is going to be a tough one I know that Penn State was a walkover last time but uh yeah for a nice little s Thanksgiving Day date that's nice how about this Valentine's Day date rather my goodness gracious I need to mix of water in today um hey how about this for a nice one just sweating out a nice Spartans nitty Lions game if that doesn't just put the love in the air on Valentine's Day then I'm fresh out of AAS over here but regardless hey it's going to be a date here locked on Spartans on Valentine's Day because we're going to be back after the game don't you worry we're going to recap everything that happens we're going to go more into our big 10 Football Locks and any other news that breaks we're going to get to it here locked on Spartans your team in green white five days a week now go enjoy your lovely Valentine's Day everyone love you all go green