STEVE KORNACKI NEW POLL NEWS TRUMP IS THE CLAY HOLMES OF campaigns

Michigan right if he doesn't win those um but he does manage to win Pennsylvania flips Georgia and holds North Carolina that's that that's that narrow 270 268 path right and from Harris's standpoint too if she were to get Wisconsin Michigan Pennsylvania and nothing else she's at exactly 270 as well right and and again if she loses Pennsylvania she's got to offset it with two from those Sun Belt states so it's the first among equals when you talk about these swing States you know one of the so one of the nightmare scenarios that have been keeping me up at nights uh but I don't think is is a possibility anymore or likely was when Biden was in the Rays and it really looked like he was going to have to kind of hold that blue wall his polling in Nevada looked really bad and to the extent they were pulling that single congressional district around Omaha and Nebraska too it looked like he had a shot at that he had a shot at holding the blue wall even losing Nevada even losing Arizona even losing Georgia holding that one congressional district and just getting 270 and I worried about what that would mean you know afterwards pressure on Nebraska lawmakers Etc like that that narrow path seems a little different now that Nevada seems to be pulling in a in a different way yeah although Nevada is always you know they always say notoriously difficult you know state to poll there and there's always been demographically opportunity for Republicans Nevada because you have that huge rural you know bluecollar white population there that's been trending so Republican but yeah look Harris has made strides with non-white voters Hispanic voters in particular young hispanic voters this is where there was the biggest slack with Biden the camon Harris campaign is just despite the fact that people like Fox and others are trying to criticize it clearly is hitting home runs the latest poll figures are incredible bearing in mind her campaign is still in its early threshold where you going to find voters like that in the Battleground less likely you're going to find them in a Wisconsin you know Michigan Pennsylvania more you're going to find them in those Sun Belt states so there's more opportunity for the Democrats down there but that being said you know again Biden winning Georgia that's the first time a Democrat had won that state since 1992 and it was by just under 12,000 votes Arizona was basically 10,000 votes so these are extremely narrow margins that Biden took these states by and there is a pull of sort of you know political history there that keeps these states very winnable for Republicans totally now there's two aspects about those States Arizona and Georgia that I think are interesting it's something you've been talking about in sort of as you've been briefing all of us right is about you know there's the polling right but then there's the kinds of people living in the kinds of places they are and the kinds of voting groups Democrats do better with in the Trump era versus Republicans one of the things that sort of characterizes Georgia and Arizona's just enormous Metro areas as a share of total vote for the state right so that Georgia that that Atlanta area that Phoenix area there as Democrats have done better in Metro areas including out into the suburbs that's been a a richer pool of votes for them and part of the math that was a that allowed them to pull off 2020 right the metropolitan areas cities and really metropolitan areas suburbs that are fast growing too that's what you're talking about there you know the Atlanta metro area extremely fast growing and and that's where the Democrats you have counties there the Democrats were losing you know by 30 points you know say 20 years ago M or M Romy won by 201 that they can now win they can now win by double digits you've got you know they're rapidly diversifying they're filling with de Democratic friendly demographics so you've got that in Georgia they've got that in area Iona North Carolina is another interesting one in the Battleground because that that sort of exists for Democrats you know the Research Triangle you know talking about the Raleigh Chapel Hill Hill area you talk about in mecklinburg County where Charlotte is you've got that if you're a Democrat but if you're a republican you look at North Carolina you say well the Democrats have been flexing their muscle in those Metro areas Trump has been driving up bigger bigger margins you know in rural counties across the state and not just rural counties some midsize counties as well because I think relatively speaking there's a larger uh blue collar white you know non-oled white population there as a share of the electorate in North Carolina voter saying they trusted the ex president more on the issue of imigration by 17 points flash forward to the latest edition of that same poll released just on Sunday Trump's Advantage has eroded consider lead vice president Harris by just n by US border patrol at the US Mexico border from October 2020 right we're still in theck of until July of 2024 start pic a lot not a lot of people crossing then begins to rise people more comfortable being outside again I want to bring your attention what happen starting in January this bid administ the numbers fall sharply and then continue to Trend down the latest data from July shows border encounters were at their lowest point since September of 2020 in the teeth of the pandemic Bill going now I think that's pretty notable first of all no one's yeah for once we've been really good and consistent about a message and it's a simple message that's true um listen um forever um Republicans talked about the Border but didn't really care about it in fact they wanted the border to be a mess because as you mentioned it was their oxygen it was the way in which they convinced people to be scared of folks who came from a different country or spoke a different language from them and so when they were presented with this bill that would have dramatically declined the number of people arriving at the border they panicked they realized that they might lose this issue electorally and Donald Trump told all his lieutenants in the Senate to vote against it and so what we essentially did was called their Bluff right they said they wanted to fix the Border we gave them the bill that would have done it they voted against it and it exposed for the entire country their real agenda which is to just complain about immigration and complain about the Border as a means to try to divide Americans from each other and so the message is really tight and simple you can tell the story in 15 seconds Democrats and Republicans wrote the toughest border security bill in decades Donald Trump killed it because he wants the border to be a mess and it kind of speaks to the sort of underlying insincerity that people believe is at the heart of Donald Trump so it's not a hard story to sell it has the convenience uh the convenience of being true as well yes it's 100% true let me ask you this was a sort of Devil's Advocate question I think Republicans will make this argument I want to get you to respond to it so one of the arguments during this negotiations was um the president has a unilateral power he doesn't need legislation legislation is a crutch uh and after that Trump killed that bipartisan legislation the president did take some executive action at the border and we've seen again this huge drop now again everyone wants it to be this like cause and effect you press a button and this we're talking about tens of thousands of desperate human beings making decisions under unbelievably calculated decisions bases but what do you say to people say look we were right we didn't need a bill president pushed the button numbers go down so it is true that actions of the Biden Harrison Administration have resulted in Crossings at the border being lower today than they were at the end of the Trump Administration um that is a combination of really good and smart diplomacy with Mexico um diplomacy that frankly won't be available to Donald Trump he will have an antagonistic relationship with Mexico and due to the fact that the B Administration did end up implementing through executive order um sections of that bipartisan Bill the problem is it's not clear whether those executive orders will stand up in court it's still an open question as to whether they have the legal authority to do that so of course the administration first pursued making those changes the emergency power they have to shut off the border the changes in Asylum to expedite how we process those claims through statute and only when they failed because of Republican obstinance did they move to implement it by executive order and that in combination with the diplomacy with Mexico has made a big difference which is why Americans look at the record of Joe Biden in reducing uh Crossings at the border they look at the hypocrisy of Donald Trump turning down the ability to have a bipartisan achievement and they are starting to come to the conclusion that maybe Democrats are actually better when it comes to the issue of immigration and border security well that's so that's the other you you just said immigration border security that to me is sort of one of been one of my kind of abiding pet peas in this whole discourse right is that immigration goes reduced to the Border um and and my own feeling is we you know the country deserves an immigration system that's orderly Humane and in the National interest right it should be we don't want chaos we also want people to be treated like like human beings that that have dignity and and we respect and also that's good for the country which and it's on that last point that I thought the DNC did a pretty good job and I think obviously uh kamla Harris talking about her parents right being immigrants themselves which is like that part of the equation which is we're really lucky as a nation that a lot of people want to come here who are amazing people and it it is really good for us that part gets completely lopped out of the discussion the more that you talk about the Border as this sort of like fixation so people do not want to give up on immigration as a core American value and so they do not find Trump's message um in the nation's best interests but they are also not interested in a party that doesn't talk about border security in the context of a broader immigration reform agenda and for a long time Democrats didn't really lead with a conversation about fixing the Border we talked mainly about how we humanely treat uh folks who are already in the country which is an important topic but all of a sudden our message resonates with a broad cross-section of Americans because they actually want a country that allows folks to flee torture and Terror and economic destitution but they want it done in an orderly manner so when Democrats start by talking about border security and then use that as a means to then talk about a pathway to citizenship and quicker work permits it it just creates a Buy in from the American public which results inage disappearing in part because they really don't want this dystopian world where their local sh turned into attendance to open air detention camps of migrants which is what Trump is they are they really are and if they think that some of the crap um Don shitty pants and JD van been coming out with just in the last few days is going to put the swingometer the other way I can't see it today's a perfect example a remarkable contrast candidates I mean I actually love this kind of holiday Labor Day setup that we're looking at between Harrison and Trump first the Optics of of Donald Trump sitting like little richy rich or I guess old Richie Rich at the golf club in Palm Beach that he owns not just that he's a member of that he owns he's sitting there by himself ringing his Bell for Diet Coke vice president Harris is out there with rockus crowds of workingclass Voters across the the country and the other contrast that we seem to often lose in the Trump years is that there actually are policy let me just say my father Donald's older brother was in Ry at Lei University and then voluntarily went into the Air National Guard um the only one in the Trump family to ever serve in fact I had the honor of using his trunk his army trunk throughout my summer camp days uh everything about him and and you could we spoke the last time we were here about how I had the the honor of meeting Senator McCain you know word that has been cheapened over the years but I said to my kids Andrea Christopher who were there and my wife Lisa this is a genuine hero okay let's make no mistake about it the fact that Donald called him in essence a loser uh I I don't get it but you go anyone who is disabled or anyone who he deems lesser than him is a loser uh which okay that's just the way he is that ain't going to change why do you think people in the military support him I have no idea and uh I know many people who were in the military and I had the the the pleasure of speaking uh on an interview with uh National Defense radio which goes out to the armed services and I told the truth I basically told this story and I said uh he just doesn't give a about them he just doesn't uh it's it's the great Godfather too one of the last scenes when Sunny says country an your blood kid and Michael Corino says no I don't believe that Donald believes in Donald this guy has made it clear how he stands he's sitting down at Mara Lago after he got elected president and this was his exact quote he's talking to a bunch of folks at maral Lago you're rich as hell and we're going to give you a tax cut at the same time he was telling workers they get paid too much already that's who this guy is you tell me who in Wisconsin is sitting around saying damn I wish they'd give billionaires tax cuts and screw me over damn I wish they'd take my health care away I wish they'd underfund my public school I wish they would make my job more difficult and more dangerous and then at the end of the day I wish they'd make me work till I'm 75 years old no one's saying that no one's asking for that agenda what they're asking for is to be treated fairly with dignity that's what we have look