Donald Trump tipped to ‘do better’ than his polling suggests

Published: Aug 29, 2024 Duration: 00:01:46 Category: News & Politics
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I'm starting to look at some of the polls now and they suggest that maybe whatever kind of excitement bounce she got and Convention bounce she got is starting to wear off now there is a Fox News poll which shows that kamla Harris has had big increases of support in uh Arizona and Georgia and Nevada but at the same time though we're also seeing other polls such as the Nate silver aggregation of polls put a model in place that says that actually now Trump is more likely to win um where do you take all of these polls at the moment and are you surprised at all that they seem to be coming back some of them at least in the Trump direction we keep seeing polls misjudge the final result in fact in Britain they finally have done an analysis of the poll in the labor party Victory last month in Britain what do they show they show the polls were off by four and a half points at predicting the labor party's percentage of Victory uh first of all Donald Trump is probably going to do better than his polls in the final result uh because that's what always happens and there's the shy Trump voter secondly the state polls don't have enough people to really have anything that's meaningful Beyond a margin of error and lastly um we have to get to the first debate for people to actually have an understanding of who this Cala Harris is other than this Pleasant Visage and this politics of joy that we're seeing on the screen uh that people are getting so I say if you have to look at the polls I mean it's like a car accident you know you shouldn't look but you do anyway if you have to look at them go to Real Clear Politics and look at their polling averages which smooth out all the polls not just focus on one and secondly don't look at any of the polls seriously until after the debate

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