[Music] hello everyone a prediction Professor forecasts the winner of the US presidential election based on his famous 13 key analytical model historian Alan lickman predicts that Kamala Harris will have the upper hand in the November election my prediction is that Kamala Harris will be the next US president but the final result is still up to the voters so go vote Alan liman who has correctly predicted the outcome of nine out of the last 10 US presidential election elections told the New York Times liman's election forecasting model is not based on voter survey data but revolves around 13 criteria during the presidential race called the 13 keys to the White House Professor liman's 13 Keys system corresponds to criteria for evaluating the winning ability of the ruling party and its candidate in the election by holding at least eight Keys the candidate will take the lead in the popular vote in the context of the 2024 presidential election since Harris is the ruling Party's candidate the assessment of the 13 Keys according to Professor lickman system will be based on how many keys Harris can retain key number one revolves around the effectiveness of the ruling party if after the midterm elections the ruling party holds more seats in the US House of Representatives than in the previous election the ruling Party's candidate will retain this key key number two refers to internal competition meaning an El election that does not witness any Fierce competition between members of the ruling party in the process of seeking representation for the races for key number three if the ruling Party's candidate is the incumbent president this side will gain an advantage in the election the content of key number four suggests that if the Independent party or third party candidate is not too strong the advantage will belong to the ruling party with keys number five and six if the economy does not decline during the election year and economic growth during the term is equal to or higher than the average growth rate in the previous two terms the ruling Party's candidate will gain an advantage whether or not the incumbent Administration has made significant changes in terms of national policy is the content of the seventh key for key number eight if the country does not sink into instability and there is no prolonged crisis during the current term the incumbent has an advantage Keys number nine and 10 revolve around whether the incumbent Administration has been affected by Major scandals and whether there have been any major foreign policy and Military failures meanwhile whether or not the incumbent Administration retains key number 11 depends on major foreign policy or military achievements finally Keys number 12 and 13 are determined by the Charisma of the ruling Party's candidate and the opposition parties's candidate respectively these Keys certainly work they are the north star of political IC forecasters asserts Professor Litman of the 13 Keys leading to the White House in 2024 Mr lichman believes that Miss Harris holds eight keys and loses three keys to opponent Donald Trump firstly Democrats did better than expected in the 2022 midterm elections but they still lost seats in the house so Harris lost a key said Professor lickman next because Biden the incumbent president is not running for re-election the Democratic party loses key number three also did not gain control of key number 12 this is a very difficult key to possess the candidate must be someone of stature and inspiration that is rarely seen perhaps only one per generation said Mr lman Harris does not meet this Criterion Mr lickman also said that Keys number 10 and 11 are currently open and there is still a possibility that they will be reversed in favor of Mr Trump before the election foreign policy is unpredictable so these Keys could be reversed the Biden Administration is investing heavily in the Gaza War which is an unending humanitarian disaster Mr lickman said however even if these two keys are reversed Mr Trump will only have five keys so the possibility of him being elected again is quite low in the past Mr lickman made a rather contrasting remark to his current prediction when he said that the only chance for the Democratic party to win the race to the White House in 2024 was for Mr B to run for re-election at the time professor liman said that putting anyone other than the incumbent president as the Democratic candidate was stupidly absurd according to the New York Times many recent polls show that the race between Mr Trump and Miss Harris remains close a nationwide survey conducted by the hill in collaboration with decision desk HQ based on 156 polls shows that Miss Harris has a slight advantage as her approval rating is about 3.6 percentage points higher than the former president so there you have it liman's prediction adds another intriguing twist to the 2024 election story although his model has a remarkable history remember that the final decision rests with the voters so stay informed get involved and most importantly make sure you vote thanks for watching don't forget to like share and subscribe for more updates see you in the next video