Live Trading JOLTS Job Openings | GOLD, USD, SPX500 & More!

[Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] attention A1 trading show fans if you're interested in getting free access to the edge finder or our premium trade alerts listen up for a limited time our show's partnered broker 8cap is giving out free ACC access to our products when you sign up for a new trading account with them if you already have a broker you may want to consider switching to 8ap because of their low trading cost a wide range of trading assets and their amazing customer support if you'd like to get access to our software and Discord server for free click the link being dropped in the chat right now and ask one of our team members for more information don't miss your chance for free products and an award-winning broker now back to the A1 trading show all right guys good morning welcome back good afternoon check out the uh the stream layout we got here this is pretty cool well I gotta play my um my intro music I feel like it's kind of a viby yeah there we go little little viess for your morning your afternoon wherever you are tuned in love the orange love the fall stuff does anybody else absolutely love fall like just in general like it is just some people I know I I know a lot of people are like bummed out that summer is ending and if you're somebody in Australia you're probably excited that winter is ending um you know or South Africa or somewhere from where it's cold right now um you're probably thrilled that it's changing but some people like are like bummed out that summer is you know slowly coming to a close but I am just if we could just have fall weather all year long I think maybe I eventually would get tired of fall but it would take some time I like fall weather a lot you know why I love fire I mean uh why I love fall is because of fire like it's such a cool I love like bonfires and sitting outside you know football season kicks back up in the US and that's always fun I live in Scotland it's permanently fall really does it not get like really cold there I feel like it gets really cold there but I bet you you do get a long like beautiful fall season I think I've heard that don't know why but fall feels a bit nostalgic I totally agree Bosa that is so true I don't know what it is it that is like the feeling of fall fall is like nostalgic that's like the best way I can explain it too anyways guys speaking of falling um we've got the indices coming down lower here today uh many of you know that I stopped out a lot of my stuff yesterday so I'm out of the S&P P 500 after we broke this level here I got stopped out um and there couple things I want to talk about here how can I James I saw your question yesterday I was watching it back I saw your comment how can I trade S&P 500 in the US that's a great question so I will share with you what I use um chanler James if we could drop the link to Weeble this is The Brokerage that I use and full disclosure this is a referral link if you choose to use it um you'll get free shares when you sign up and we get some Kickback here on the show if you'd like to support us consider using Weeble that is the best brokerage for us Traders now if you're someone in the US and you're trading with like oanda or you're trading with forex.com and you're wondering why can't I trade um indices or gold Etc it's because in the US we can't TR we can't trade um cfds which xauusd Nas 100 SPX 500 those are cfds so we can't actually trade them even though I look at them as gauges what I actually personally trade is ETFs like spy you can also trade Futures contracts with Futures brokerage but for me I prefer trading ETFs so if you are looking to trade the same concept that I do which is on Weeble uh consider using this link and it will get you some free shares upon your sign up that is available in the UK I believe Philippines Singapore us couple other countries yeah looks like it's not Forex style yeah no it's not Forex we can't trade Forex or cfds for um us indices you could either trade it on the Futures Market or you could try out what I use which is ETFs which I find to be very simple you're just buying shares selling shares very straightforward So speaking of shares I ended up um stopping out of my position here yesterday so if I take a look at the 4our chart as soon as we broke this level of support on spy that was my trigger to go ahead and take profits on this move that I traded from the near the lows in August rode it up here trailed stops and you know after this consolidation Zone I was looking for you know something like this and we did not get we got we got the break to the downside so as we look at the indices here this morning um the question then becomes how much more can these indices drop and the answer is you know we may have lost a bit of our momentum here and with September season it being not great for indices uh could be rough Ian told me about the fall in the SPX Naas and us30 Ian where did you tell me that I'm not sure where you told me that however um we discussed yesterday on stream I pointed out the seasonality here for let me pull this up seasonality uh for the indices is not great it's not great for the month of September let me pull up seasonality to show you this I made a video yesterday talking about this when we talk about seasonality this is the month of the year that has historically been the worst performer for indices now again I mentioned yesterday I don't sell just because seasonality is bearish because that doesn't necessarily guarantee anything because we're going into an election cycle you know um there's some volatility there the markets could easily be up by the end of September 2 but right now there's enough weighing factors here on the edge finders calculation to keep me from entering new trades for now on the indices and we have bearish seasonality so again doesn't tell me I need to necessarily sell or get short the indices because I don't have that strong confirmation um but if we take a look here neutral readings you can see the indices are no longer here TLT however has popped back up I'd like to take a look at um Trey bonds as well so yeah so indices again they were on the bullish camp in August I was very bullish throughout the entirety of August um and made some really good money on the indices but today with uh or with yesterday's break of structure here that was my trigger to go ahead and take profits on the move and I would not be surprised if September is a bit of a a rough month here for the indices I'm not necessarily thinking we crashed otherwise you know if I if I thought that I would probably look to get short I don't think we necessarily short I'm sorry um you know fall you know straight down I just think that it's probably a time for caution um it's probably a time for gauging with some of this economic data this week how things look for the Federal Reserve interest rate cut which is expected to happen September 18th the FED is going to cut rates in on September 18th it is basically a certainty they've said that much they said that's their plans we know rate cuts are coming the difference however between now and then is what the data looks like coming out so what I'm talking about is last month when we took a look at NFP and NFP came in real poor right when it missed the market really hated it so this Friday we have the next NFP report and it's very curious to see what that data comes in as is it going to be strong is it going to be weak that is so important and by the way if this number comes in strong boom I'm probably back to Long the indices if it comes in real real strong the market May freak out about like oh rate Cuts not going to happen but that would give me confidence that the economy is not falling apart and I would probably look to get long indices again so I'm very it's pretty binary on Friday it is a pretty binary case study for me today we have jolts jobs data which is important and we've got um that we'll be covering that here in uh just a little bit but we've got a lot of stuff we got a lot of data coming out the next few days guys and I and I hope you're ready to to strap in and focus we got 488 people here today if you are enjoying the stream do me the biggest favor today if you're enjoying the content hit the Thumbs Up Button subscribe to the channel uh if you're watching on YouTube if you're watching on Twitter make sure to leave a heart on the on the video it really does just help to support the work that we're doing here trying to put together shows that are helpful to Traders trying to get involved with fundamental analysis I know that it can be you know fundamental analysis can be very um overwhelming to new Traders at start uh but it's not that bad and if you hang around and you you know um subscribe watch watch how we learn things together that's the whole point of the show we we learn every day we get better at fundamental analysis uh day so um Nick can I trade Weeble can I trade cfds on Weeble in the UK I don't know I think you can trade I don't want to mislead you so I'm not sure you'd have to look okay so let's take a look at where we're at okay can we let's do a quick economic pulse check here okay we're going to run through some stuff GDP numbers coming in strong good news that's strong for the dollar and I would argue also strong for stocks I want to see GDP growth um Services PMI we get this data by the way tomorrow very important data point very very key one of the most important data points of the week is the services PMI data which last time around saved us from that Armageddon you know black Tokyo Monday that we saw the Big selloff in Japan um Services PMI rushed to save the day last time around Will services PMI help us out this time that is really what is important okay so next up we take a look at manufacturing PMI which came out yesterday about in line with expectations nothing great here nothing horrible here just about expectations so that's kind of a wash manufacturing has been consistently a bit slow in the US in the last few years um fortunately in terms of manufacturing it is a smaller part of our economy the US is a very Services focused uh or Services heavy economy so let's keep going retail sales numbers came in really strong this was a positive thing so I'm actually overall I like where things are and I want to show you the summary in just a second NFP um kind of weak last time around actually straight up weak ADP uh also weak take a look at unemployment claims unemployment claims have steadied at least they're not like Rising dramatically um but they're still you know they're rolling in so we'll keep an eye on that tomorrow job openings jolts we're going to get this here in just 30 minutes so we got jolts numbers coming out here this morning what we want to see guys if you're someone you know looking for stock market bullishness what you don't want to see is you don't want to see this number just drop really hard you want this number to stay flat because if jolts job openings in the United States are steady then that's okay but if they're falling rapidly that would signal perhaps a recession could be coming right so that's a recessionary signal um we also have unemployment rate this week coming out which uh you know has been rising so uh and this this chart looks a bit extreme but I can I can mute it just a little bit by let's go take a little bit further back um we've seen you know unemployment rate dropped down to at its lows 3.4 3.5% and it started to rise here again so we are seeing unemployment rate Rising um but please don't let this chart scare you too much it looks a little aggressive but still even all of this entire chart is at very historic low levels of unemployment in the United States and to give you some reference I believe that the long-term average US unemployment rate is about 5.7% so it is rising but it's not at a critical level by any means okay some some something to think about there wage growth in the US has slowed pretty substantially 3.6% uh this was a large contributor to inflation so seeing this number coming down has been a positive signal to the inflation story which is now kind of on the back burner speaking of inflation data let's take a look at inflation data in the US you can see here we've had a nice steady overall decline in inflation and disinflation uh the disinflation trend seems to still be uh intact here that's good news we don't want to see this Spike up that would be a cause for concern so I hope by going through that we we explained a little bit of the state of the economy and what might be helpful to you guys is this summary table that I built um I built this if you go to the data scanners page which need to do this for gold I keep saying I'm going to do it but it's a daunting tedious task to build these tables so I got I got to do it but check this out so we look at uh the S&P 500 you can see we're getting a neutral reading on the economic data front we've got a couple blues here and a couple Reds slightly more Blues so what the heck does that mean Nick dumb it down for me make it as simple as possible okay if it's getting blue it's positive for the stock market according to our you know traditional analysis and if it's red it's considered bearish for the stock market now in the future I will be replicating this chart for each one of these sections within our software okay so hold on to your your butts here we will get that set up I know people have been sending sending DMS already like Nick can you please do that for gold I'm like yes I know I know I know but this takes a lot of time to build these charts so I will have that you know built at some Point here we'll we'll get that sorted out anyways we could run through this basically when we look at GDP growth Manufacturing pmis Services pmis retail sales month over month um you know the numbers here have mostly been positive we've seen some things that are coming in not as positive like the employment data right Etc so the overall kind of summary there has been not so bad also need to check this because this seems wrong manufacturing PMI did not it's not a positive it should actually be a negative um so let me I'm actually going to write that down um hold on okay the scoring is correct but for some reason I've messed up this table I need to I need to check that because that actually should be read so about in the middle we've got four four blues four four Reds so the economy I would actually argue is in an okay spot going into the First Rate cut so I am generally bullish on the stock market but we have some negative stuff to factor in too look seasonally look at this seasonally where we're getting a minus two score because this plays a big factor is this right here the current month of September is historically a not positive month for the stock market in the last 10 years okay so we need to think about that that needs to be factored into our scoring and our decision-making process okay this is how we use the edgefinder to avoid bad trading setups as well as find better ones out there does that make sense type yes in the chat if this breakdown was helpful to you by taking a look at the economic data I know we haven't been looking at a lot of price charts but I wanted to make sure that we're on the same page with the state of things as we get a lot more economic data over the next few days I want to make sure you guys are up to speed on that does that make sense type yes in the chat if that makes sense so um that's what we're looking for us30 is slightly up today impressive nasdaq's lower SMH I got stopped out of SMH here uh once it broke through here I had an long entry over here rode it up here had my stop loss below this level so when it broke lower yesterday I ended up taking profit on that one okay lots of yeses in the chat thank you guys for that feedback that does help okay so um that's kind of the synopsis is is we're still sitting in neutral we know that October November December October's still kind of Rocky but November and December are very good months historically for stock market so I'm watching the indices in the next few weeks I also want to update you guys on my position on gold so I am still long gold this thing has been you know sideways here recently um my thought process on gold really simply is that if we break through these lows and we can't hold support I've got to stop out but if we can push higher from here if we can take through the highs then I'll be able to Trail a stop and and move things into into profit but this one's been really you know kind of testing my patience to be completely honest like I've been just watching this thing trade up trade down trade up trade down I mean this is day one two three four five six seven8 nine 10 this is day 10 of watching this position and um it's kind of just gone sideways but I think that you're probably going to get some more decisive price action in the second half of this week because you have jobs data coming out in 20 minutes then more jobs data and services PMI data coming out tomorrow and then you have on Friday the big one you have NFP so you have a lot of stuff coming down the pipeline now the edgefinder does not currently have a bullish setup on gold so why am I long gold well it had a bullish setup 10 days ago when I took this position and I trade I closed trades based on technicals so if gold it's getting a neutral reading on the edge finder so if gold breaks through that I need to just close out like there's nothing there's nothing left for me to hold on to the trade but the technicals looked really good here as well as the fundamentals at the time of me taking the trade I'm just G to hold it if it doesn't you know if it doesn't hold support then I'm out and if it can rally through the highs then I can start trailing a stop and trying to lock in profits on this one now what you're looking for in jobs data this week for Gold would be weak jobs data would be good for gold right because that would probably make people a little bit concerned about the state of the US economy more Cuts would become expected which would again more rate Cuts very positive for gold could send it through the highs we don't know that to be true though if data comes in very very strong and stable Gold's probably gonna you know roll lower so yeah something to think about but in terms of current positions you can see I am a lot lighter today I do have a couple stocks open uh nvidia's come all the way back down to break even for me I've got a couple individual stocks I'm still holding on to like Tesla my gold trade in my iwm trade I'm still in this one as well so here's iwm same concept here if we break through the support level that's going to be uh my point to to take profits on this trade so that's that's what I'm looking for here today either price drops breaks takes me out or we rebound and I can start looking to you know watch the Russell see if we can actually start taking out highs in which case I could Trail some stops all right so um yeah keeping an eye on that one let's see what else individual stocks most of these are like long-term small positions in my account so I'm not really too enamored by trying to do anything or make any moves on them um let's see what else dollar Index really quick so take a look at the daily chart here in fact let me check something pound dollar is back on the top setups page okay let's take a look at that gbpusd did we get some data from the [Music] UK like what changed here can I see that ni oil is Fallen a lot trading at support is it a good place to buy or should we need any fundamental news that will be um good question about oil I don't personally right now have any uh immediate trade setups on it but I will look at it in just a second all right pound USD let's take a look here okay Trend flipped to a more positive reading that was the change in score that got us into bullish territory okay employment data favors UK okay let me look at the pound so pound USD uh I've had this level marked up on my chart for few days now so if we get a drop down into this 38.2 or the 50% retracement level as long as the edgefinder still giving me the the AOK to look at it I'd probably look at a possible position myself not Financial advice ever none of this is I'm I'm not here to do your homework you do your own homework and and uh as always you know trading is hard most people lose money you probably shouldn't do it it's that difficult unless you're as crazy as I am okay so I like pound dollar on the long side I also like kiwi Dollar on the long side if we can get a bit more of a pullback there let's take a look at that one so I'm watching this at the 38.2 both both setups are I'm look for a bit more downside move and the reason for that is when I take a look at the dollar Index right dollar Index here I would like to sell it but I'd like to wait for a little bit more squeeze to the upside we might get that but if um on NFP but if we get that with a really strong job data point to be honest that might flip me to not wanting to short the dollar in the short run I don't know I'll have to take a look at it on Friday looking for oil buy setups Ballout says look at oil man that thing just keeps falling if you were listening yesterday we talked about you know this in the short run this breakthrough support looks really devastating for Bulls because again you're seeing lower highs lower highs big breakthrough support I would not be surprised if we see this thing continue lower for a period of time my my actual opinion on oil I thought about this yesterday I don't think the time is now but in terms of more of a contrarian longer term counter Trend idea I think that there might be some value plays on on oil but this let me say clearly this is not a momentum short-term fundamental idea I'd be talking more about like okay if we dip down into like the 6968 range I'd take an initial position perhaps on some energy stocks maybe Exxon Chevron Etc and if if that tanks lower this would be a small initial position with the idea of like building one for the longer run but again there's a very different approach there than what I talk about frequently with my own trading where I'm more of a momentum Trader and if you're going to dollar cost average on something to avoid blowing up you have to realize that you have to have a lot of capital and you have to have tiny positions that's the only way dollar cost averaging works you also need need to have a long-term approach because sometimes you're going to get stuck if you're dollar cost averaging so I say that very Loosely be very careful with that kind of approach because you need a lot of capital A lot of patience and very small positions and except that you're probably not going to make a lot of money quickly so I don't again I don't like Longs uh from a trading a short-term perspective from a longer term perspective you may start to get into value territory like okay longer term you know low 60s looks really interesting unless you think we're going into a full-blown recession right if you think we're going to go into a global recession then you do not want to touch oil because oil can go down to 20 right in a really bad Global recession take a look at we talked about this yesterday look what oil did in 2020 went down to like nothing and then look what it happened in 2015 went down to 35 29 you know maybe maybe 20 is a little aggressive but you can see like a long-term low somewhere around the 30s 35s is possible if you get a real true like Global slowdown scare do I think that's what's going to happen not really but I also think that you know right now markets are just uh a little bit fearful and so there there's probably some short-term downside in my opinion on oil if you're long-term in nature you might be able to find some good value in these areas but uh personally from a short-term trading perspective there's nothing there I also don't have any bias on the edgefinder so there's no short-term trade for me whatsoever all right let's look at um TLT for just a quick second let's look at yields so take a look at yields yields are continuing to Trend lower this is indicating that the market thinks the fed's going to cut rates uh which is pretty obvious but it's been trending lower meaning they think more and more rate cuts are are being priced into the market going forward 30-year yield 10e yield 2year yield Russell's down Point 4% NASDAQ down 0.1% S&P is flat Nas and S&P are basically flat on the day big sell off yesterday I'm very curious to see if that follows through today or if we bounce but again that September seasonality makes me a little bit nervous for the indices for gold again straightforward I'm out of the trade I'm long uh at around whatever this is like 2472 I will stop out if we break through the lows and I'll Trail stops if we start taking out the highs so gold is just a a boring wait and see situation for me also guys I just want to mention that if you'd like to get access to the edgefinder we're extending the 35% off sale until the end of this week we've had some uh people who were kind of waiting on a a paycheck to be able to pay for the edge finder so if that's something that you'd like to take advantage of the 35% off discount is has been extended for a few extra days if that is something you'd like to take advantage of you can direct message us right now and speak to a member of our team who can answer any questions you have about the software you get access to our top setups algorithm which gets you of course all of our current watch list tools each day these are generated automatically the software pulls in sentiment Technical and econ economic data automatically ranks and files it with its scoring system and generates our watch list this is what I trade with every single day on my shows and live streams so if you like my style you're trying to incorporate fundamental analysis into your trading I highly recommend that you take advantage of that discount while it's there again is 35% off of its usual price and that is ending Friday officially so uh if if you're if you're interested send us a message we'll give you some information about the discount you can pay with crypto you can do payment installments if that's something that's easier for you um and you can answer or you can ask any question uh about the software that you'd like we've got a couple trained Representatives who can answer technical questions about the tool how it functions Etc so if you have any interest please feel free to take a moment and chat directly with us there if you're watching on Twitter um there should be a link pinned below the video or you can go to A1 trading.com and open up a live chat in the bottom right hand of the screen so we're a software business out of Atlanta Georgia we build tools for Traders and it is a one-time fee to get access to the tool it's not a monthly recurring fee it's a one-time access fee and then you've just got it and you've also got all of our future updates within the edgefinder for free so it's a kind of a one-time payment and you get access to all of our work and we are constantly working to improve it you also get access to the commitment of Traders data so on and so forth so when we're looking at you know what institutional money is buying selling we also have the put call ratio which is one of my personal favorite uh indicators on the edgefinder um which doesn't want to load right now we have the a AI investor sentiment survey and here's the put call ratio so um you know this is looking at the volume of puts and calls so if you're looking to add data to your analysis I highly recommend it many Traders are out there just looking at charts or trying to read articles I'm telling you uh that approach is is Antiquated you know use data use use software to help you spot opportunities that is so much more effective than trying to read 74 different articles a day to generate a fundamental analysis bias having data at your fingertips clicks away from from whatever you're doing is ideal so if you don't have a copy again you can send us a direct message using that link that was dropped in the chat just a moment ago all right let's see terms of uh where we're looking here we've got eight minutes to go and then we've got jolts job openings and for those of you who are just tuning in we've got 760 people between Twitter and YouTube and yeah that's it um what I'm looking for here on the jolts job figure is to see let's break this down let's make this kind of simpler so with the jolts job openings here if we get a number that is higher than this number meaning more job openings obviously that would be considered good we are forecast to drop from the previous number of 8.8 uh 8.18 million uh job openings down to 8.09 and again the FED has held their interest rates high for a good bit of time now and that is restricting the economy that is slowing the economy so it is normal to see jobs data declining because the FED is also expected to cut interest rates and sort of start to reverse that um you know putting the breakes on they're expected to start actually letting off the breaks and and actually starting to accelerate the the economy through the use of um reducing their borrowing costs through the overnight federal funds rate so they're expected to cut rates and so that effect will be very interesting to see uh how that plays into the market because if we go into those rate cuts and the economy is doing this like it's stable then it is expected that the economy will re re accelerate and things will be good and you get what is called a soft Landing let's say that you know this is the rate cut Point well what if you get this what if you get the economy doing this before the rate cut many would actually argue that at that point you're what is called behind the curve you've made the move to try and save the economy too late which would look like this the economy would struggle and perhaps enter into a recession for a period of time before re accelerating right so this would be the hard Landing idea this would be the soft Landing idea right now my opinion is we are more in this territory there are some people would argue that we're no we're looking more like this but this is why economics is so difficult there's you know people who have different opinions and look at different indicators and weigh them different it's just just like everything else you know just like uh every single movie that comes out there's people who are controversial or every single you know sports game there's controversy in economics there's heavy amounts of controversy as well so how I see it is I generally think that the economy is um not necessarily growing rapidly but not necessarily plummeting either and that rate Cuts will likely lead to a reacceleration in the economy however my view could get thrown out the the entire window if this week we start getting more evidence that the economy is slipping right so jobs data is one of the indicators there so the first major jobs data point of the week is coming out in four and a half minutes that's why it is important jolts job openings give us a bit of an Insight give us a bit of a pulse check on how the the labor market is looking are we going to get the soft Landing are we going to get the hard Landing this number is not binary it's not going to tell you oh we're getting soft or oh we're getting a hard Landing but it is a clue and that's all we can do with markets it's all about educated guesses so this will impact my my thought on where things are at if you get a big slide let's say you get a number today that is much lower than expected if we come in let's say eight flat or 7.99 right million jobs as opposed to the 8.09 that would indicate to to investors that okay wait a second things are slowing at a more rapid Pace than we thought and again would go back to concerns about oh the economy is sliding before the rate Cuts so let's let's keep an eye on that again I don't have a lot of positions going into this I'm long gold I'm long iwm which is the Russell 2000 Index three minutes to go what I'm looking for here is if we get jobs data that comes in in line or let's say it's 8.1 for example 8.1 million that would I would say is a positive thing that would say okay we're stabilizing before rate Cuts positive so what does that mean for the dollar and gold as I know a lot of Traders here watch indices and others watch gold and everybody has their favorite if you get a big slide in jobs data that's positive for gold because it's weak for the dollar right any open trades yes I've discussed them a couple times I pulled them up earlier I'm long gold I'm long iwm and I've got some stocks that I'm just holding on to so again we got two and a half minutes uh and let me just reiterate I say this every single news event I'm not gambling on what's G to happen with the spike I don't know what's going to happen with the spike I'm reactive and going to take in this data and incorporate it into my my tra approach just like the edge finder does I'm interested in um I'm I'm very interested in seeing how it how it impacts stuff because it it could you know send the indices lower or it could start to you know signal strength in the labor market which would actually probably be positive for stocks strength in the labor market not great for gold strong for stocks strong for the dollar you kind of just have to think like intuitively strength in the labor market how does it impact each market but again no offense fmk but trying to say like gold cell right before the news we don't know what the data is going to be if people out there knew what it was going to do right with certainty gold already would have moved right nobody we're waiting to see what the data point comes out to be we don't know so please be careful I know a lot of people are listening or watching they see people in the comment section saying oh buy gold trust me or sell gold trust me don't listen to that I'm telling you that is not how trading Works uh you're going to blow your money trying to chase and and gamble on news events don't don't gamble intuitively listen to what this data tells us about the economy use it to your advantage Okay so we've got about um about 40 seconds to go here I'm just pulling our all markets view so that we can take a look at all the different charts at once for your convenience we've got the S&P over here us30 over here Naz right here dxy so that's the dollar Index Euro pound gold and oil so we'll go ahead and roll our uh our breaking news coming in here in just a second all right about 10 seconds to go for jolts let's see see if this has any impact could move it a lot could move it nothing we'll see how surprising or not it is all right dollar Index moving lower indices also moving a bit lower here initially that would signal that joltz came in oh let's play guess the game hold on my sound yeah it is okay um guess the number eight 803 that's my guess 8.03 come on do it there was one time where I got this so dead on and James was like dude how did you do that and I was like it was it was luck but 8.03 eight flat oh was it oh my goodness okay I was see I was wrong oh my goodness guys 7.67 million job openings compared to the forecast at 8.09 oh my goodness 7.67 guys that was way off I actually would have expected a bigger reaction than that the dollar Index is moving lower gold loves this which is good for my position SPX sliding Nas sliding dollar Index lower here that does not set us up well for for Friday at least you know NFP could show something different but this is again we go back to what we just discussed sliding data would be considered concerning for stock market investors and investors do not need concerning stuff right before rate Cuts in the worst historical month of the year September which that was the title of my video yesterday I thought I was pretty cheeky for that title and somebody commented they said Nick your titles are always on point and I teared up a little bit so um I'm just kidding but you know it is one of those things it's like okay the market is already shakily you know waiting for the September fed meeting and suddenly now you've got um a slide and economic data here that is not not pretty for the scenario we also saw revisions lower revised down from 8.18 million jobs in the previous report so now we've got a it's a pretty big slide in jobs data here this morning guys WOW gold is up on that data point let's take a look at GLD and I bet you iwm my trade on iwm is not looking pretty off that I mean it's still a winning trade and I'm not going to lose money on this but we may get stopped out today if iwm rolls over Russell 2000 Index NASDAQ uh& P S&P is still about flat NASDAQ slightly in the red here no massive you know look at that spike in reversal my goodness so we'll see how the how the dust settles on this candle but still kind of for Naz just playing playing the news candle movement uh this thing could be you know down at the lows by the end of the 15minute candle or completely reversed that is the craziness of trying to trade the short-term you know charts on Newsday but yeah lower numbers equals scared buying for gold well it's it's that but it's also just okay look the dollar got really weak that's good for gold why did the dollar get weak because that is weak economic data so the dollar just plummeted off that which I mean that's actually a pretty sizable move for the dollar look at this guys we are down to 101.32 not quite back at the lows and kind of a kind of a bummer cuz I was looking at possibly selling the the dollar but to be honest I still might get my chance I still might get the chance to you know this week is far from over dollar Index could snap back and and move higher into NFP um or this could be a signal that NFP is going to be rough so we will keep an eye on this one for sure definitely an interesting report there for sure um let me just really quick check our live stream schedule I believe we have James coming on and then James at 9:15 Chris at 10 all right cool cool we'll go for a little bit longer keep chatting a little bit about this and uh see where we're at with this but um yeah pound dollar nzdusd may have may have missed this one again we'll see but if that rolls over I'm still looking at pound do as a possible buy nzdusd same concept looking for the rollover to 38.2% retracement then I might look for some buys Nick in the previous jolts news do you recall dollar Index moving this much uh remember that jolts NFP CPI um pmis all of them have the potential to move the markets a lot so if you know sometimes jolts moves the markets a lot sometimes it moves it nothing it's all about the surprise as we just discussed this had a surprise factor to it man that that is a big slide in labor data if it had come out exactly as expected here this morning jolts would be such a boring event so remember that it's not about the event as much as it is what it tells us and how surprising that data point is this jolts job openings this morning was a little bit rough right that's how a rough reporting for job openings really sliding much lower than what was expected right so that's where you kind of have to think like okay joltz has the potential when when you see a red folder event you know a lot of traders who don't use fundamentals are like oh red folders I don't trade them or I do trade them like it's not about the folder color it's about what the data itself actually tells us about the state of the economy and today's big significant switch uh in the in our pulse check here on job on jobs that's what's moving the market it's not because it's a red folder or a yellow folder or that doesn't matter it's what is the data telling us and if you understand how to read it you understand why it's moving or not moving the markets this is a bearish uh piece of data for the dollar pretty clearly um it's not the only data point though so we have more data coming on Thursday more data coming on Friday tomorrow we've got the services PMI and unemployment claims tomorrow's live stream will be very big Friday's live stream will be very big also wherever you are right now if you're just tuning in do me a big favor hit the Thumbs Up Button subscribe to the stream if you are new uh we are here Monday through Friday gold big spike up um um on the 15minute chart a little bit of fading it now we'll see if that where that candle closes but this was a positive signal for gold I actually think um and I'm glad that I'm just you know still in the trade we this thing could reverse lower and and take out the lows but um right now that's a good sign look how many times we've rejected this area of support seems like buyers want to hold it will they be able to that's the question for me if we can break through the highs I'm going to start trailing a stop- loss further into profit and if we can't I stop out and take a loss Canada's rate cut um Talk on Canada's rate Cuts 945 let's take a look at the Canadian dollar forecast was 4.25 so it came in line with expectations USD CAD dollar weakness I don't actually know I'm I've not been keeping up very much with the state of the Canadian economy they've got their press conference at 10:30 which will probably cause some some swings so it seems like it was expected to be cut it got cut and so that was you know in line with expectations the question then would become with the press conference what is um the Bank of Canada see going forward but I can't really comment past that I I you know I really focus heavily on us data so I can't give you a full comprehensive uh view on usdcad it's also not on a uh on the watch list for edgefinder right now so I just can't really give you a full comprehensive view all right let's keep pushing on oil down almost 1% again today my goodness S&P and Nas look at that completely faded that sell off came right back into uh where they started Russell about flat on the day now put call ratios back in kind of a uh optimistic state with the stock market I'm curious so the put call ratio Rose yesterday I want to look at the TLT also TLT TLT if we can get a break through the highs I'd look for a retest personally I'd actually like that a lot get some Bond exposure again or perhaps a retest of support but nothing to do current levels silver up slightly gold flat on the day now big drop for gold came right back and look at that now S&P in the green here for the day NASDAQ also slightly green Russell flat now on the day so we will definitely have to keep an eye on this if we break through those lows that's going to be my trigger to take profits on this one but I would be happy to see it bounce back you know if we can start breaking through resistance and start trending up again that would be [Music] um that would keep me in the trade so we'll see Dow Jones Dow looks uh you know honestly healthier than the other ones still sitting right around the highs we also know that value stocks do tend to do well during rate cut environments the thing is with the stock market specifically I think you just have a rough couple weeks here I I really you know it depends what happens with NFP the market is kind of antsy about rate Cuts what kind of rate cuts are they are they good rate Cuts or bad rate Cuts is the economy going to slow with the rate Cuts or is the economy going to hold out before rate cuts that's what we discussed earlier so we will continue to to keep a close eye on the data I would say that jolts jobs data however this morning was not a positive signal but it is the first of a couple different ones so it's possible the Market's just like okay this is not good but we have a lot of data coming out in the next few days so let's not get overly convinced one way or the other right so joltz is coming out today a little bit light I wouldn't be surprised if the market is lower by the end of the day um same with the dollar wouldn't be surprised if the dollars you know ends today red um Services is tomorrow so that's huge unemployment claims tomorrow that's huge they've really come into very important anything with a jobs data now is very sensitive and then the big one of course NFP on H Friday again if you guys are looking to get access to the edgefinder we've got that 35% off sale extended through NF P if you would like to get 35% off the edge finder make sure to click the link being dropped in the chat you can speak directly to a member of our team to get access for that nice discount you can pay with crypto you can pay with installment plans you can ask any questions you have about the software if you'd like to uh check out our our free course on the edgefinder you can ask them for that there uh so if you would like some information about the discount Etc please feel free to chat with a member of our team and what that looks like when you do that is when you pull up the chat it's not a robot it's a real person so just click the edgefinder discount start chat and you'll be connected to a real member of my team who can answer any questions you might have about the software and again that gets you access to our top setups algorithm all of our data screeners all the economic data scanners the commitment of Traders data put call ratio retail positioning all of it in one tool which is the um I call it the engine of my personal trading Strat stry I use it all the time to help me spot ideas in the market and then I can use it to confirm you know opinions that I might have it's it's really been a GameChanger do you have any discount for the Discord group Bosa yes if you send us a direct message and just let them know that um you were watching the live stream and looking for a discount on the the Discord as well uh just let them know and they'll they'll hook you up with something what is the website name bro the the tool that I'm using is uh our software the edgefinder A1 trading.com or you can chat with a member of our team if you have questions all right guys we're going to now transition really quick take a quick break and then we've got Forex James taking over the show we're goingon to be dropping the link to his website if you would like to check it out while he goes for a little bit here and uh you can get some information uh by going to uh elit traders. or stick around here for a few minutes learn something from Forex Jam get some great Insight on what's Happening the markets so we will be right back with James just after this if you're someone watching the show right now and you're outside of the US looking for a better brokerage listen up I wanted to take a moment to mention today's live stream supporter Vantage Vantage allows Traders outside of the United States to trade cfds you can trade everything from Commodities like gold you can trade us indices or Global indices and you can even trade FX all under one brokerage and you can connect to metatrader 4 and trade directly on tradingview.com not to mention they also have a really good sign up bonus going on right now so we'll drop the link to that down below in the chat as well is in the description of this live stream check out Vantage now back to the show hello hello how are you all doing it's good to be here um so just a quick note before we get started I feel really sick today so please bear with me uh might a bit slower than usual uh so to start with um I'm in euro dollar short I've been in this position for a couple of days now I think since yeah since the second um now this trade is actually mainly driven by seasonality which you can see here so what I want you to do is just pay attention so we've had the 25th of August right here uh so we can see we had this peak uh so we draw our line from the 25th until the sort of end of September roughly around this area um so I we just be a bit more accurate here so during this period from the 25th of August until the end of September we can see over the past 10 years we've had quite a strong decline if we look at the statistics here so if we were buying the market for the past 10 years on these dates exactly we would have uh lost nine trades but obviously I'm shorting so we need to inverse this so if I was buy sorry if I was selling this Market at this exact date over the past um over the past 10 years I would have won nine trades so if we take it back to the Chart if we look here when was this peak um actually let me pull up the uh where is it the date range here so the peak right here was if you notice on the 25th so it was on and this is actually quite rare for seasonality but it was on the date exactly that we had this peak um which was quite a good indicator for me especially to say that um at the moment or at the time I thought the euro dollar was very very extended uh so if we look back on the daily charts um I am more in the mindset here of a a reversion trade so I'm using seasonality along with just again at the time the distance that we had between the 200 moving average you know was it was 3 uh 2 1% above um which is kind of a little flag for me to start looking or potentially a short position now there's also another Factor here you might see at the bottom of the screen here the take profit uh and in Brackets we've got credit agricult now I'll show you why in just a second here so this is my notetaking um thing it's on notion you know I write down everything essentially to do with the markets and uh what the institutions are saying uh so inside here we can see credit agricol from the bank reports on the 30th of August they are in short positions in euro dollar their entry the Target and their stop but I don't care about that the only thing I'm interested in is what pair what direction and where are they targeting um so you can see they're targeting very simply the 1.06 level uh so that would signal to me that you know seasonality is bearish I am more looking for a reversion trade there's an institution already looking at this they've given us the trade idea um so you know why not take a stab for me this is only half risk it's only 1% normally I risk 2% uh so I would consider this a half risk position so you know if the dollar does start weakening as it more than likely will do um then you know it's not an issue um we've also you know broken sort of structure here so I'm looking really for the retest of this level and then if we can get a nice convincing H4 bearish candle off here I may add in again to round off my risk at a standard 2% um gold yeah we can have a look at gold uh let me just read let's see uh I saw the same on the dxy looked in the last 10 years for September dxy was bullish nine out of 10 years yes question it's worth it for you to take such huge swings uh that could be this month I mean this trade yes so you know without sounding uh rude there's no reason to take longterm positions like this if you aren't trading with sort of a minimum of sort of $10,000 in capital uh and this is just my opinion by the way so you know take with a grain of salt um however you know this is what one to three so if you're trading on $1,000 that 3% is not really going to do much especially in such a long period if you were looking to intraday trade or just swing trade on a a smaller time frame um then you know you might see more quick results however you know on the flip side swing trading like this can be a lot more consistent um because you have more time to manage the trade you've got more time to get in get out um and assess what's actually going down so for example if I wanted to get out of this trade I have you know the next two or three days to get out uh whereas if I was scalping or day trading I might only have a couple of minutes or a couple of hours um so you know there positives and negatives um but yeah to answer your question uh swing trading what you know is a lot more profitable or sorry I should probably say a lot more worth it if you have larger Capital but that's the same for all types of trading really more money you have the more money you make uh so someone said gold we can cover gold so I'm I was stopped out at break even um which is fine to be honest I'm not not concerned about that so I actually put a video out on my Channel today about seasonality um and I used gold as an example so I'll use it again here I won't I uh I didn't mean to get rid of that line uh so you can see I've got the orange line here on the thir 1 of October and that's for exactly the same reason um now I'm using seasonality quite a lot at the moment so I'm not looking to get in any trades um so I'm currently in the planning stages and this is sort of the plan um I'm showing you kind of how I approach the market to now rather than Trad a time in because my portfolio is pretty flat um so so the uh the yeah gold sorry I lost the trailer thought there uh gold is very bullish don't get me wrong um almost everything is bullish for gold the only thing I'm a little bit cautious of is the distance of the 200 moving average on the weekly now I've been saying this for quite a while that I do see a correction coming or some sort of mean reversion you know where almost 30% above however saying that on the weekly chart this can take you know up to two years so the period we had here where we were above 200 quite significantly this was also about 30% this took us um 777 days to really sort of get back to this 200 so I'm not using that really as sort of a Target or anything it's more just one of those little alerts I've got in my head now the there's a lot of um hold on sorry I think I've uh did I lose my tab no it's here okay there a lot of Articles coming out about gold at the moment and almost all of them are bullish on gold however they all have something in common which is a bearish outlook for the short term whether it's just a pullback um or what I don't know you know I don't know what exactly what they're looking at but they majority of them are say to say buy the dip and what I can see here is again if we look at the end of August until sort of the start of October we have a very bearish period for gold this is over the past 10 years similar situation we've got nine losses so if you bought gold in this period for the past 10 years you would have lost every trade um so that's something I'm taking into account so at the moment again this is just sort of the planning stage of of Trades I'm not looking to really get into gold now until after this period after this orange line so once we reach here that's when I'll be free to start looking to open positions uh but I'm just using seasonality at the moment as sort of a line to avoid an unnecessary loss because I don't see any reason gold couldn't come down slightly lower and have sort of a profit taking dip whatever it may be uh whether it's just seasonality taking place profit taking some dollar strength you know it could be anything I don't really care um so yeah it's just something that uh I'm taking into account with gold at the moment um I lost $3,000 please help me sure send me your PayPal I'll send you $3,000 soon as uh you're asking so nicely I'm joking please don't send me PayPal um ugj setups no sells here um I actually just closed UJ it was a bit of a painful loss I'll be honest uh I've been in Long UJ since for the intervention we had I've been sort of dcing to be honest today after we had jolts I I can't be bothered holding that position anymore so just accepted the loss and uh I'll make it back at another stage uh can you share an analysis on GDP JPY yeah we can have a look at GP JPY um the thing I don't like about a lot of the Yen pairs actually is this sort of pullback we're having so this you know if I was looking to go short this would make sense to go short here we just touched off this 200 moving average um I'm not sure we've not quite come back 50% but we almost did you know it was close enough really um and this is kind of the the factor for me that I'm just a bit cautious of the same with um same with doll uh yeah dollar Yen as well so be very careful because the boj might not hike rates hike rates now but you know it is the BJ um same with the interventions we don't seem to really get any any warning of those either so yeah I'm kind of kind of done with the Yen pairs for now um AUD USD for sure uh I actually quite like the setup here the problem is I'm getting two conflicting um entry signal so for my intraday strategy would be kicking in here so it would be you know price is just sorry the moving average is just switched from a bullish Trend to a bearish trend obviously indicating a trend change we've got the RSI that's overbought uh let's see is this a fib oh it is it looks so good um we've just rejected or we're currently rejecting this uh this FIB level the problem is I don't want to go short because technically on the H4 we've just bounced off the 200 um and you know the dollar isn't exactly doing too much at the moment in terms of uh moving to the upside so yeah I wouldn't really want to be uh selling uh sorry wouldn't want to be yeah selling sorry again I'm not not feeling the best today I'm getting a bit muddled up um AUD card yeah we can cover that one I like the style of Forex James is trading it is nearly the same style I trade but I do it Futures good stuff it's so simple it's just Trend follow with the trend look for a fib that's it uh I mean that's very simplified obviously but essentially that's it in terms of technicals uh so the cad CAD just cut rates this morning um so long positions ideally just based off that um let's see what the edge finder says actually I've not checked it today uh let's see if there's any any news or anything to look at here um so ad cads not on here let's see what the data scanner says uh retails mainly long uh they've got a negative score seasonality bearish uh Trend readings bearish GDP is positive PMI negative retail sales negative uh so yeah I mean the the current data doesn't really support a long position here um so actually again I wouldn't really mind going short to be quite honest um price is showing rejection at this 200 moving average stop loss quite tight just above this previous little high here um and maybe a very sort of small position like this just so a one to two but then you know again the problem is this weekly 200 moving average I don't want to sell into that because the the 200 moving average essentially acts as a very or can act as a very strong Dynamic support and resistance not saying price can't break it um it's just I don't want to purposely go into short against the 200 um when we're so close so it's just small things like that that you need to pay attention to I mean for you it might not matter but for the way I trade I use moving averages quite religiously um so obviously I have to put a little bit of respect on them especially when it's on the weekly time frame uh there's a lot of things here pound New Zealand us30 oil um I will get to those in a moment let me just catch up on the on the chat here why would institutions be interested in giving retails free Alpha I personally don't trust anything to say Ben the bank reports aren't for retail Traders they're not if you Google Bank report you won't be able to get them so it's not a case of you know they just publicly publish it but they legally have to um they have to submit what positions they're in uh and Bank reports are sent to uh investors so for example if I'm a client of uh JP Morgan they'll send me their reports um and we get those reports so it's not like they uh you know sending out to retail to try and uh grab stop losses um I can't decide what an Anis tool I choose to analyze my charts I switch between mt5 and trading view I like to analyze trading view but there are differences with candles and mt5 there's actually not the difference that you're seeing is with your broker so if you go onto IC markets or AAP or peppero whatever broker it is that you trade with on mt5 and you open the same chart on trading view you will see the same thing the difference you're seeing is the difference of uh of the Brokers my moving averages the weekly and daily are 200 and the H4 and H1 are 50 and 200 uh do you trade gold today no uh okay let me see what you guys want uh let's see pound New Zealand uh hi James can you look at pound New Zealand looking to potentially go short on the test of the daily neckline thanks in advance the daily neckline uh I I'm unsure what you mean by neckline but I'm going to assume you mean sort this level here um let's see let's see uh there's no FIB in play here I do quite like that we we're close to this 200 so we're kind of bouncing I mean it's not not really bouncing but it's been respected so far um H4 is still in the downtrend really we've created a lower low we've got lower highs um and we did break below below the support uh so yeah technically I don't see much um yeah I don't think there is anything really here uh New Zealand seems to be quite bullish actually so if we see the edge finder we've got New Zealand dollar and New Zealand CAD Reger is bullish although adud nzd is bearish so yeah it seems like edgefinder says New Zealand dollar is doing quite well uh so shorts make sense if you are just looking at New Zealand in terms of the pound um let's see uh pound actually seems to be doing okay today so yeah maybe maybe not a bad idea I mean not for me but I can see where you're coming from let's do us30 uh what do you think about people uh people saying trading is gambling uh well trading is gambling essentially I mean you can and actually you know I've had quite a lot of Traders disagree with this and I can't really understand why so if you take a professional Gambler they take the statistics they take the they study um and they've been doing it for many years and there's no guaranteed outcome it's not like you're sat at the desk and you're guaranteed to get a paycheck it's the same as trading um maybe trading is slightly more um you can push the edge more in your favor because is fully in your control whereas you know a roulette table isn't but the markets can still do whatever you can't predict it 100% um so I actually don't totally disagree that gambling is trading uh sorry trading is gambling but it's also very dependent on how you conduct yourself so if I you know if I say for example I'm going in here because there's been two bullish candle stop loss here that's gambling because I've not done any research I'm going off a a very simple Confluence like saying that oh um the the balls hit black five times it can't hit black again so I'm going to go all in it doesn't work like that um so there's a lot of a lot of similarities there's more similarities than there's not I'll say um but again there will be people that disagree uh and that's completely fine because I guess it some people find it insulting that their career can be com uh can be sort of considered gambling but you know it is what it is it's just my view um oh us 30 sorry I actually didn't didn't get into it uh let's see uh so I know stocks are down at the moment I keep seeing uh news alerts by by Bloomberg stocks are down investors are selling blah blah blah blah blah blah uh but yeah I don't really like this candle we've just had off this resistance based on that alone I wouldn't really be looking to buy uh although the trend is still bullish technically you know we have create technically created a lower low um but in my book that's not strong enough to to say we change trends uh so yeah technically I'd be looking to buy but I would need to see a break and a retest of this level really in order to buy or the other situation is looking for a pullback into this FIB level uh and a continuation up they're the only two situations I'd be I'd be uh looking to buy um the difference between a gambler and a trade is the same difference that exists between a wine taster and someone who's alcohol dependent it's a psychological approach you know what James I actually I quite like that um I mean I don't 100% agree but I I see where you're coming from and I don't I don't dislike that that point of view uh tradent is gambling with an edge even the casino themselves is gambling against the better um anyone's been rulet as a gamble for the casino but of 1,000 spins exactly Ben you can you know it's it's very very similar to trading um and you know you can't control the outcome of your trades I mean you can do so much you can manage your risk you can move stops to break even you can you can do a lot of things that you can't do in terms of of real gambling at at at tables and things but uh the co the concepts are very similar please explain the sudden Market change um well we've had quite a few different Market changes recently I mean we had a huge riskof move then we had a a bit more of risk on and now we seem to be pricing in some more of the the FED decisions that's are coming so what we can do is actually discuss a little bit of uh data for a second so jolts uh how can I display this let's say here so let me change the color can't see can't see what that is uh let's put black okay so uh jolts came out lower uh so that means less job openings so that could lead to a weaker NFP now NFP on investing.com was forecast uh forecast uh 165 and that was I think it was yesterday I checked that um so if we you know now change and we might see a revision in that forecast or we probably will see a change in forecast now um and this 165 actually let me just I'm trying to do this as as I go sorry hold on um so this 165 was more than likely going to be uh a signal for a 25 a 25 the base basis points there you go that's Meant To Be A B I'm not as good at at drawing on on here as Nick is um so this was if we got 165 at NFP this would have signal to me personally my opinion would have been more of a of a a path for the FED to start doing three cuts of 25 however now the FED has cut sorry now we've had uh jolts come out uh lower so this could lower NFP down to anything I mean I don't think we're going to get 114 again I just don't really see that happen I think that was more of an anomaly um again I could be wrong I can't see the future uh however 125 to sort of 135 maybe uh and again this is more just a a guess that's all I can do at the moment uh so these types of numbers here would more lead to a 50 basis point cut there we go I hope I hope you don't mind these drawings um sorry let me actually so if this was higher so this situation hasn't happened um so we've not had the higher jolts we had lower jolts and this also could lead the unemployment rate that we have on Friday to be lower as well thus backing up a 50 basis point cut uh now on previously I was again more edging towards the 25 basis point cut Avenue um however I'm starting to doubt that now a little bit and starting to reconsider and I think the market might be as well cu the dollar doesn't seem to be too happy at the moment you know the it's uh heading quite nicely to the downside uh I hope that made sense I know that was uh a little bit uh uh rough but there you go uh do you stream every weekday uh no not every weekday uh so I put videos out on my YouTube channel and I'm on this I'm on Trader Nick stream two or three times a week roughly um so sometimes you'll pop in here and I'll be here instead of Nick or with Nick uh what are your thoughts on audnzd I'm thinking about to buy I would not be going in for buys right now um and already I see why and I was looking to buy as well uh and I think buys are on the table I'm look I am looking to get long but not yet so this is a good example actually I speak quite a lot about how I use the edge finder um so at the moment I have a forecast of the Australian New Zealand being bullish the way to filter this trade at the moment is if we look at edgefinder we can see it's still bearish so a way to filter out these these trades and avoid potential losses I mean doing this also reduces your you know sniper entries but it will more than likely over the long term secure you more solid positions so what I need to do is wait for audnzd to flip into bullish so at the moment it's neutral heading on bearish so when we get edgefinder bullish and my economics come into play um and the markets start heading to the upside so for example if we can break this high and maybe come down for a retest edge finder swaps over data comes into play and I can execute here um yeah so something along these lines here that's kind of the kind of the approach I'd take with this one uh lee James I appreciate that thank you uh think it's short EU if it reaches resistance uh I'm in EU shorts so let's do it uh and it the Asian asset yes so is the Australian dollar both of them are quite heavily affected by China um so something also to pay attention to there uh silver I mean silver Longs these were this was a quick sort of intro uh sorry a quick was meant to be a quick scalp in the Discord but uh seems to be going on for a little bit longer than we planned it's just a one to one really or one to one to three sorry a one to 1.3 I should say uh my watch list been reduced quite heavily um so dollar Swiss I was looking at um and then I very quickly remembered that this is a very busy news week um and I'm very glad I didn't get in now so I was looking to enter off this candle here off the 50% pullback um and you know we had this bullish candle and I was I was sat there I was thinking damn maybe I should have taken it um but again luckily or not luckily uh I shouldn't say luckily it's not the right word um I was uh disciplined you know in my in the way I trade uh and didn't take it now the reason I wanted to take it was because if we look at seasonality again very very bullish um you know again if you if you were long sorry if you were in Long positions over the P past 10 years during this period you would have won all the trades um so it's seasonally very good but at the moment probably not the best time to be buying the dollar um especially for a short-term trade it's it' be quite easy to get chopped up uh especially today so that's why my portfolio is quite flat at the moment I'm not looking to really hold anything into uh into NFP because I don't want to get into a blood buff I'm quite happy to watch other people get into one and I can sit and smile from the sidelines um oil just flew let's see I don't have oil here yeah oil's moving quite nicely well if you're looking at uh WTI USD or Uso USD which are all you know crude oil uh against the dollar then it's because the Dollar's weakening so obviously we have um the base currency either going up or stable and then we have the dollar which is a secondary currency moving to the downside causing the asset to move to the upside um basically that's as simple as it can be thoughts on GBP CAD yeah I was looking to go long on on pound card you can see it here actually um you see my old drawing from one of the the previous streams um yeah so I was looking to go long but so much anymore this was because the edge finder was um was reading as bullish but it's not it's not at the moment so not really interested the problem is we're kind of just stuck in this range at the moment really um there's nowhere for price to really go uh so maybe yeah maybe I would look for Longs if we could break out of resistance uh and retest and continue to the upside but yeah at the moment it's kind of been no man's land um H Zen I just covered dollar Swiss um rewind five minutes you'll see it uh but yeah feel free to send any more questions I think I'm the last guest on today or I am the last guest on so um when you guys run out of questions I might go um or before depends on how many questions you have you know I'm not going to say here all day as much as I love you guys of course um WTI futures um USD yeah okay uh so let me just have a quick look and see if there's anything interesting I'm still in my copper position this position is rough so if you guys ever look at Traders whether it's uh you know me Nick any any Trader that you know you may look to for ideas or guidance whatever it may be and I know I don't mean that's come across bigheaded at all um you will sometimes not see this side of trading um and when you when it happens to you it can feel very very bad um but this happened to me where it entered right at the tippy top and it just fell um so this one has been one of those trades where I was sat waiting for quite a while uh I was waiting really for these monthly candles uh sorry these weekly candles so we had these candles closed quite nicely um this was a higher low off the you know sort range we had here um so yeah it looked looked quite nice and as soon as I enter it turns bearish and it's just one of those things unfortunately you can't avoid it I'm still happy to hold um for now you know it's more of a a long hold position rather than a quick a quick position I'm not looking to get in or not looking to get out anytime soon is just a very poor entry uh up to your knowledge what is an average monthly return for a good Trader uh anything above 1% or even sorry anything above zero% is is good uh so if you can do any if your Equity chart looks anything like this you're doing well and let's say this is 0% and let's say this is uh 3% God I hate this trading brush trading Tool uh sorry oh God trading view brush is awful to right with so let's say this is 3% um so you know you're anywhere between zero and 3% a month you're outperforming almost every Trader so I normally get anywhere between one and 2% a month I'm happy at that that's you know that's good um and if you watched Nick or even my video we we both made a video about dvo I'm not going to go into that situation now uh but we both made a point about the monthly return he had for August which was about 65% I think so his monthly Equity chart would have looked something like this which is a huge red flag so what you don't want to do is sit there on the first of the month and say I need to make as much as possible this month I need to reach 10% I need to reach 15% 10 20% whatever it may be because it's unsustainable if you do that every month you'll blow accounts what you need to do is sit on the first of the month or the first of every quarter and just say Okay this week or this month I want to make 1% and all I need to do to make 1% is have one good trade that's it you don't need to have a crazy one to 10 every day you don't need to do anything outrageous just be that you know sensible stuff uh Chris over is on afterwards uh is he let me double check before I came on I was told no one's ahead of me oh sorry no one's after me uh uh just give me one sec let me read this no I don't think Chris Pulver is not on Chris sorry Chris is on after me tomorrow uh it was meant to be Nick Phillips after me today but he can't make it so you're stuck with me um unfortunately um um trading Nick on Words of Wisdom yeah I'm going to watch that that'll be that'll be a good episode hey James what's your RNR year to date uh it's really nothing spectacular uh off the top of my head it's it's I think I'm up about 9% this year it's been pretty pretty poor to be honest um I was really chopped up in the dollar Yen situation and the Australia when the Yen started Rising uh I was caught in that that caused some losses um also the euro dollar hedging sorry the euro dollar dcing I was doing uh wasn't the most profitable thing um so yeah didn't yeah nothing to uh really shout about this year but you know this year is probably one of the worst performing years since I've been profitable and I can say it's probably the first year since being profitable I've actually learned some things um and it's it was how do I explain it so I guess if you put yourself in the shoes of a new Trader when you blow an account you will learn something whether it whether you actually act on it is a different thing but you might learn don't short don't short NASDAQ when it's rising or don't short the dollar right before NFP whatever it might be you'll learn something uh and again whether you actually act on that information is a different story but sometimes when you've been doing this for many years that's obviously slows down because things become repeatable uh whereas this year it kind of humbled me a lot because I got very complacent in the way I trade because it's worked for so long and then it didn't work very quickly and it chopped me up um so that told me I need to be a lot more cautious and stay on my toes um and yeah just wake up a little bit if that makes sense oh is is Chris on or am I am I getting confused here uh how much you risk per trade I risk 2% to trade uh can I also enter this trade what trade uh I'm not not in a trade uh why is the stock market up today after we get negative jolts number uh good question uh I'm not a stocks Trader but generally speaking dollar up uh sorry dollar down stocks up same as indices so if we go and see uh well maybe not German 30 if we go and see the S&P we see the S&P is heading into actually maybe I'll be buying the S&P uh just noticed I I quite like where we are at the moment let's see does this line up almost it's not perfect but that's okay uh yeah maybe I'll take a small stab at the S&P so if as I said I'm more leaning towards a more aggressive rate cut now uh especially if we start seeing poor NFP numbers maybe a long position on the S&P isn't a bad idea Target the previous highs go for a one to two I might do that after the stream um okay I'm going to add this to the watch list uh maybe maybe I'll I'll act upon this one we'll see we'll see uh so yeah guys I think that might be it unless there's any final questions uh but I don't think there is uh I'll give you guys a couple of minutes while I just read a message okay uh what's your best year so far uh actually let me see uh best year so far was early it was quite early in the 2020s oh no best year actually was 2018 did 75% that that year um and that was the second year of been in business for elite Traders uh so I guess that was quite fortunate worst year actually was last year uh yeah I did 10% in 2023 actually I'm just looking at my year year on year here it's on a bit of a downtrend 75 47 37 41 24 10 uh and this this year hasn't been updated for the past two months Let's ignore 2024 uh but yeah past last three years my uh my uh performance is trending to the downside which I'm not happy about uh how long sorry uh how long you trading for and how long it took you to be consistent I've been trading for seven years it took me about two two years to be sort of break even and then it took another six months to be profitable um so I spent that two the first year was a lot of blowing money accounts trying to learn um and do it from YouTube videos and do it myself uh and then I decided that I need a mentor so I went and got a mentor um and that changed a lot of things um so yeah uh Mandy I only use Troy edgefinder to find a bi sorry to find a bias if I am looking for a short-term trade normally I like to look for longer term positions I like to look into the future um so if edge finder supports it then great but if not then I'll wait uh edge finder is actually more of my entry tool uh and I know again I think I've said this before but I know Nick says it's not a timing Tool uh but that is kind of how I use it so I'll wait for a nice level of structure wait for the edge finder to Ping in the right direction for me um and then I'll I'll match it with other factors if there are any yes always been I do also day trade but mainly a swing Trader I don't day trade that often um especially these days do you think the First Rate cut will signal uh will signal a Fed we might be entering recession uh I don't know I'm not on the side of recession yet we'll see I think if we Contin continue to see um the you know uh the uh news releases for the dollar to be weak and weaker and weaker then yes obviously but for now I think were on sort of a uh a middle ground where we we very easily could but not quite yet who was your Mentor uh my mentor is not on social media you won't find him he was a family friend he used to work in City Bank in London um he was my uncle's friend so I knew him through through that so not yeah not a uh not one of these social media guys and when I say it was mentoring it wasn't like uh we sit down hours and go through my trading journal and he picks things out it wasn't really like that was more of a um casual mentorship it was more of a he would send me some breakdowns and some articles and Analysis and research and things he try he' just tell me to explain it and break it down and obviously I couldn't so I'd have to go and search and be like well what does this mean or what does that mean or if this happens how does that affect that um and if I was wrong he'd tell me and explain it obviously but it was a lot more of a a casual thing rather than a a formal sit down in the office type of mentorship um anyway guys I think that might be it um I need to go and take some uh some paracore my head is killing um and I want to get off the charts because this trade looks very tempting and I really don't want to trade um so if I sit here looking at this trade for too long I might end up buying and I'm not sure I wanted to do that so you guys have a great rest of the day I think yeah I I'm on again tomorrow and Friday I think from what I remember so I'll see you later this week or tomorrow or Friday depending um and yeah be safe hope you didn't blow too many accounts during news and I will see you all later thanks for tuning in to today's A1 trading show make sure to subscribe and to turn on post notifications so you don't miss the next one also we're looking for more guests to come on the show if you're comfortable being on camera have trading experience and you're looking to grow your audience exper osure we'd love to have you on in the live stream chat and description below we'll drop a link to apply to be a live stream guest and join in on the conversation we hope to have you on soon that's all for today trade safe and we'll see you next time