Roster: 2024 vs 2023, stats and record projection, preview 49ers vs Jets, Deebo's cap hits, injuries

hello everyone this is Al morelo of the 49ers plus podcast a bit different format to start today um before we get into 49er talk week one and a season preview I just wanted to take a minute or two to um honor and remember um our family dog Charlie who um yesterday September 6th on a Friday we um had to put down He he left us he has been dealing with um heart failure um or heart murmurs and he's been on heart medicine for the past five years the past couple days it's been uh it progressed um he was having trouble walking having trouble breathing so yesterday on Friday morning our vet was closed so I took him to a nearby um Animal Hospital who we've been to before actually a year ago took him there and found that he had in addition to you know borderline heart failure at that time um a mass in his chest which was very upsetting um they couldn't tell if it was cancer um because they couldn't um put him under anesthesia given his heart situation so you know as a family we knew that that the Clock Was ticking and we never knew if you know this was the day or the week or the month that it was going to happen and over time um you know his his symptoms of of heart failure and whatnot progressed he had to up his he had to be put on um a diuretic to help get fluid out of his lungs that was new as of um late spring early summer and that's just as as the symptom progresses um as the condition progresses um Charlie was a Cavalier King Charles Spaniel black and tan um not exactly the same breed but looked like lady from the Disney animated movie lady in the and and um such a sweet boy and a sweet uh personality um always wanted to be near us wanted to be cuddling by us whoever was sitting down um he just wanted to be near us and really good with our two children um Charlie was what started our family for my wife and I um being 14 he's older than my two children 12 and N so when we got him three years into our marriage um you know we don't we never viewed him as a we you know he's our he was our fur baby he was our first and he started our our family um and anybody that knows us or has seen us and been around us with him um that's listening knows how much we doed on him and how important he was to us and and such a big part of our family and how much we obviously loved him um yesterday we I was at the hospital all day with him my wife and kids were working I I called my wife and let him know what was let her know what was happening I didn't tell her everything initially cuz I didn't want her worrying so much as she was driving down with the kids um but I knew early on maybe around 12 or 1:00 um how how bad it was they had to put him in um like a fully closed off crate to give him oxygen they really upped his medicine to get the um fluid out of his lungs and then the S the the situation that was presented to us was you know we can keep them overnight and see if we can get the fluid out of the lungs really pump them up with with the diuretic but that could damage his kidneys further which were already damaged since he's been on this medicine um for a couple months um blood levels urine levels kind of urine tests confirm that um and then there was no guarantee that it would work um and in a subsequent x-ray to see how the fluid was dissipating based on this medicine uh approximately 50% of the of the fluid was gone um but it allowed the doctors to see that his lungs were um kind of riddled with with tumors so he had um lung cancer on top of that that was causing him difficulty to breathe which was why the reason that we put him in he when we put him in they they put him in the oxygen crate he looked better he was breathing normally but the minute that you took him out for just a quick walk or even carrying him we saw how labored the breathing was and and it made the the decision so difficult for us because of how perky how much he perked up and looked good in that oxygen enriched environment um but we made the decision as a family with our two small children went into the car outside talked it over um C cried a lot before the decision um during the decision after the decision and and the day after still today um you know anybody that has a dog um you know and I'm sure there are a lot of people out there that have pets um how much they become part of your family for me um Z Charlie was actually my third dog I had a dog my senior year of college for five or six months before the landlord found out about it Bailey and um she had to go and then before we got Charlie my wife and I W up adopting a boxer a rescue um I guess 14ish is years ago and was an older dog maybe five six or seven years old who was emaciated when he came to us so we kept him over the summer and had to Res surrender him because he was he had food aggression um or toys anything that he had if anyone tried to grab it from him or take away he got very aggressive and we didn't have children yet at that point and that was a strong reason why we had to you know res surrender him and that was very very difficult um to do and serendipitously we we heard about this breed Cavalier King Charles Spaniels from uh one of my wife's good friends the day that we dropped him off um back down in penil in in Philadelphia we called the breeder that we got a recommendation from and they had just had a litter and that's how we kind of stumbled um upon Charlie serendipitously um so the other thing about yesterday September 6th it was his birthday uh he was 14 so the idea of you know ending your dog's life even though it was peacefully on on his birthday while it has some sort of symmetry um to it it was hard um and what we wanted to do and we made peace with was he was getting he actually tore his ACL about a little over a month ago so he wasn't walking good but he always put on like a happy face like he was a very happy boy um didn't show us that he was in pain and was probably like powering through the the breathing and and not being able to walk well um so we we bought him like a a stroller um and it was actually a stroller for kids cuz he's a little he was big for his breed so he wasn't fitting in like the normal dog strollers that you may see like a chihuahua in or a really small dog cuz he was you know 31 32 lbs so he found a normal stroller for him and we would walk him around the neighborhood we walked him down the the Jersey Shore when we were on vacations there twice this summer um just so he can walk and and be out he would he would walk a little bit get tired go in the stroller and just be happy to be seeing people um and since yesterday was his birthday we wanted to give him that one last time so there was a nearby Petco within walking distance so I went over to um buy a little chw toy or squeaky toy gift for him and I borrowed one of their shopping carts and in the other direction nearby was an outdoor mall so we took him out he still had his IV um thing in his leg put him in the in the car and we walked him around the outdoor mall so we can see people and and feel like he was out and we wanted to give him something and I know it was a lot for us but something on his birthday too there was an ice cream place there he had chocolate ice cream for the first time in his life um the kids picked vanilla and chocolate and and he gobbled it up and was putting his head in it and we took a lot of pictures and videos of him and he was happy and then we brought him back um for the procedure um you know as you can see I'm kind of getting a little um emotional with it and just just to close like for me as an N of one I mean I obviously know how much he meant to our family my wife the kids everybody um I've been working from home since covid so March 2020 so for the past 4 and a half months he has been the mammal the person the thing that I have been around most in those four years my my little brown and black shadow um so that's going to be tough Mo that's going to be tough moving forward um as anybody that have pets or have have lost a pet um knows but I didn't mean to take up this much time um and I'm going to put a time stamp in the beginning just so people don't want to hear this they can jump right to the 49er stuff but um we love you charlyy we always will we're glad you're not suffering anymore um and we miss you you were the best boy monana looking looking throwing in the end zone caught it Montana touchdown John Taylor young to the air young to Jerry Rice touch down San Francisco young stumbles on the way back and fires up the middle pass is caught by Owens let's talk ners so let's start with a quick rundown we're going to be talking debos cap hits uh injuries including to Christian mcaffrey team captains we're going to give a season outlook positional breakdown um some stat pred predictions record prediction and then preview the Monday night game against the Jets so let's start at the top with Debo's future cap hit numbers so after Debo um restructured his contract uh last week or earlier this this past week his 2024 cap hit went from 28.6 million down to 12 .2 million so a $16.4 million savings that led a lot of us to wonder okay is it ballooning in 2025 and 20126 is going to make Debo more or less likely to remain on the roster independent of of you know my thoughts of Debo being traded what is a fact is next year is a contract year for Debo and he may you know take a stance of sitting out not wanting to participate in anything not wanting to play for the ners until he gets extension or is traded because why risk injury right on the final year of a contract well his cap number in 20125 also helps out the 49ers it goes from 24.2 to 15.9 um so that's a you know about an $8 million decrease in the cap 2026 is a void year but the hit balloons to 33 million 2027 to 2029 are void Years also but there are no cap hits in those years so it's really you know does the 2025 cap number of 15.9 make Debo more enticing for a team to want to trade for him I mean if there was trade talk last off seon uh when dbo was going to get the extension this off season with auk wanting an extension I'm sure there's going to be uh trade talk this upcoming off season because Debo's going to want an extension himself so the Niner drama of they won't they keep certain players is not going to go away and you know just to be clear on this they they don't need to trade Debo to keep pery the Niners have 60 plus million doll in cap room they're about I think $20 million over the 2025 cap so they're going to have $40 million in cap space to work with before signing Brock to as an extension which again could be as little as 15 to2 million cap hit the first year year and actually excuse me 2025 year one is the last year of his rookie deal which is still only about a million dollar capit so we don't know how much they're going to pile on to that first year all he already has a capit in 2025 I'm sure they'll add something to it but then what does 2026 look like in 2027 which I maintain I'll still be pretty manageable so the Debo situation um obviously more to come on that but freeze up money for a team that's going to be looking to roll over a whole lot this year into next year and if that number kind of stands firm they might be when all is said and done about $40 million under the 2025 cap now injuries the biggest one coming back Christian mcaffrey was listed as a calf Achilles strain this was mentioned a month ago uh in training camp beginning of August he was ruled out of any pre any preseason game excuse me um everybody is antsy right because we just saw Dre Greenlaw he had an Achilles designation for the past the last month or two of the season and he winds up touring his Achilles obviously in the Super Bowl just running SL bouncing onto the field now we can all be squeamish about well you know that's what happened to Green law and Kevin Durant had that calf strain Achilles strain wound up touring his Achilles in the finals when he was with golden state so you can draw that parallel of uh oh for Christian mcaffrey but the difference being with green law and Durant they played through that injury or that strain McCaffrey's rested it for a month he just got back to practice and he was a limited practice participant participant excuse me this past Tuesday so that'll help and he and Christian mcaffry came out and said oh you know if there was a game in beginning of of August regular season game he would have played through it and that might who knows but that would be more similar right to Green law and Durant trying to play through their their their calf or Achilles strein um during their respective uh seasons are they going to watch usage mcaffrey was asked about that he hopes not I think Shanahan well before this happened in the off season said they could do a better job of of watching McCaffrey's usage and we you know I've said it many a podcast and I'll repeat it now look green law a wild non-con injury not even during a game just going out onto the field between you know a punt getting the or causing a punt or or going back on defense the ultimate in non-con injuries right it an injury can happen at any time and we saw I don't know the extent of it now and I you know again it was out at at the hospital all day yesterday and I didn't really see I know the Eagles beat the Packers I also know Jordan love was hurt I don't know the extent of it right now and I don't know if the news alet are reporting the extent of it but last play of the game Jordan love gets rolled up on whether it's a knee ankle hoping obviously the best for him but obviously injuries can happen at any time but hopefully McCaffrey's coming off of a of a season where he was over like 320 touches total getting Mason and possibly gendo more involved um especially for games Out Of Reach or early down runs not the worst thing in the world right especially for a team looking for another deep Super Bowl playoff run other injuries being youur gross MOS D Winters they did not practice at least on Thursday I'm not sure what happened Friday or if there's a practice today on Saturday Aaron Banks Isaac gendo talo hu funga and Jan Jennings were all Limited finger greno um groin hu funga knee and Jennings knee as well um I expect three of those four players to play and hunga being the Wild Card since the ners signed Tracy Walker to the practice squad they could call him up as the fourth safety now team captains were announced nothing surprising here on offense you have Brock py Trent Williams Christian mcaffrey Debo Samuel and George KD on juice I'm sorry on defense it's Bosa and Warner you know you can make a case you know travarius Ward could have been a captain hu funga coming back off of um the ACL reconstruction you know but but at these are your core Cornerstone players that you're obviously going to be building with play you know building around playing with for the foreseeable future hopefully Williams the next this season maybe two more Debo who knows I do believe KD and Warner when it's all said and done next off season will get extended and obviously perie being in his early 20s will be here for a while as well so now let's get to the season outlook and by season outlook I just want to go through the roster we'll get to games and I'm not going to go game by game but but you guys will see what I'm what I'm doing with the game predictions let's go by positions and say if the Niners are better this year or last year and I'm going to try to be as objective as humanly possible obviously ly when you listen to the media the ners Super Bowl window is closing they haven't been able to kick down the door the past five years from yeah four or five years from 2019 to 2023 to Super Bowl appearances two more NFC Championship game appearances um they just haven't been able to get over the Patrick Mahomes hurdle and not a lot of teams as we saw on Thursday night with the Ravens can do that but but this is a team that also turned over a lot of its roster and I'm going to you may not realize how much until I go through it and was a top three roster last year and is still a top three roster and it's how you want to maybe juggle do the ners still have maybe the best roster in football or the best offensive roster in football with their skill position players and obviously a lot of stars on defense as well I'm not going to quibble over one two or three but I think the demise of the 49ers not that it's being shouted from the rooftops but I think it's a bit exaggerated for the talent they have the Stars they have the youth that they still have the roster some of the youth that they brought in in the draft and free agency and again draft picks we have no idea coming off of preseason performance it really means nothing how they're going to perform but this is the season of optimism right and I am optimistic based on what I've seen so far uh of how the players contribute how they're going to fit and how they may very likely take over for some established veterans and established Pro Bowl players in 2025 should those players move on now let's talk about let's just go through the position so quarterback I think the Niners are better if for no other reason than Brock's growth right no offseason program last season recovering from the elbow was rehabbing the elbow through the Philly game in November we learned he should be taking the next step remember guys it's not only for contrary to what the the national media is saying it's not only Jordan love and CJ strad who are going to burst into super stardom that's more of a projection because they are behind Brock in terms of playing time and actual success on the field whether it's statistically or playoff success as well Brock can grow too and I'm not expecting him to throw 45 touchdowns this year let's not go nuts he was what a little over 30 this past season and had what 11 or 12 interceptions but there's room for growth there's room for being more efficient there's room for using his legs picking up first downs I'm not with Steve Young's assessment that there might be 30 or so yards on the ground each game that he can get because that'll be around 400 excuse me rushing yards which I don't think he's going to you know get there excuse me take a drink but 15 to 20 a game a couple first downs if he runs for 20 a game that's 320 rushing yards for the year right or 340 excuse me that's pretty good for quarterbacks not really mobile that's like Patrick Mahomes rushing territory you want to be mobile you don't need to be a runner but being mobile enough feeling pressure sliding up moving around something opens up in a gap or on the outside second or third down and you can pick it up with your legs and not force something into potentially tight window it's living to fight another day right getting a new set of down behind Brock pie uh um Brandon Allen the number two surprised me Josh dos the number three you know Allen dobs or Sam darnold are we really kind of splitting hairs in terms of of the benefit um but it's really Brock's growth that makes the QB position better than last year and there's two so we're starting right off quarterbacks two new players 67% of the quarterback position is new running backs let's I'm going to say the same because mcaffrey had offensive player of the year year and it's going to be tough to top that unless he wins that and MVP right but this year it's mcaffrey Mason gendo and Taylor so I'm going to say the same Jordan Mason looking in the offseason and preseason like he's going to take that next step forward Mitchell Eli Mitchell on IR greno banged up a couple times in training camp or some strains hopefully he can get healthy and Patrick Taylor a serviceable number three if needed um but will be the game day in actives um in favor of of Mason and gendo two new players here as well so 50% I know we're talking small numbers but I like to use percentages to stress the difference 50% new running backs on the roster and you have an established veteran mcaffrey third-year veteran in Mason I think same with Patrick Taylor he might be his fourth year and Isaac gendo a rookie so tight ends I'm going to say better even though I got the prediction wrong with Willis I'm sorry with um yeah Braden Willis and uh camet 2 not making the team it's KD it's sober and it's Jake tanas as your three and I think sober and tanas are an improvement over Braden Willis and Charlie Werner who were the three on the roster last year after camlu was put on season ending IR now sober or tanas may not be the as strong of a blocker as Werner is but better than Willis and I think they add both individually and collectively more as a receiving threat than Willis or Warner or even combined so I think this might be one of the better tight end groupings that the Niners have had even though it was a bit surprising to some people and I'm excited to see how this goes they do have Mason ply the undrafted rookie at Ferman on the practice squad and Logan Thomas is still floating out there should they decide to bring a fourth tight end on the roster or sign him to the practice squad even though Braden I'm sorry Braden Willis and Mason Pine are on the practice squad but there are still established Veterans as free agents the offensive line I'm going to say same you're going to have Williams obviously hopefully he gets back up this speed pretty quickly with his extended hold out Aaron Banks Jake brindle Dominic puny and Colton mckivitz obviously there's one change puny for Feliciano berford the backups right now and I I don't believe the ners have released anybody although again my day yesterday was was taken up with Family Matters Jaylen Moore Ben bch Nick squille Spencer Beford and Brandon Parker recently resigned as right tackle so they have 10 I think numerically unless I miscounted last podcast that they have to let somebody go and if it is if they are at 53 already and Trent Williams makes it 54 I think one of the old lineman is going to go the line itself is just one right now it's two new players because they have 10 it's Dominic puny and Brandon Parker maybe it winds up being two new players and either a bar or a berford uh potentially gets let go zille I think they keep because he is the backup center until Feliciano is healthy which is still at least four weeks away at the bare minimum so two of of their 10 offensive linemen right now are new so that's 20% turnover um to me you know if they can get a good solid year out of Dominic punin he's played well in the in in the off season I'm sorry in the training camp in preseason we'll see how much of an upgrade he's definitely an upgrade over Spencer Buford already but how much of an upgrade he is over John Feliciano to help solidify the right side of the line um but I'm going to say same for now so on offense you're talking two four six eight 10 new players starters are backups actually mainly all backups sorry except for puny so 10 new players on the roster one of which being a starter for the offensive Squad D line I'm going to say better we know who they got it's Bosa it's Floyd gr Matos Beal at defensive end hardgrave Collins ellot and given at D tackle four new players half of their line is new or let's say a little bit less than half because they carried nine toward the end of last year um I think Floyd and gr Matos are going to be a step up from Chase Young Who who at least last year for the ners was more named than game um Drake Jackson got hurt Miss time uh Cleveland Ferrell got hurt in Miss time so they're really trying to patch together that number three number two def number two and three defensive end spots Floyd's AG go for week one gross Matos might be held out he didn't practice as of Thursday if that's the case someone like an Alex Barrett or Sam okanu um or the DN who was formerly of the Patriot I'm sorry the Packers and the UFL may be called up for week one in addition to um Beal all eight linemen are going to be active and they turned over the defensive tackles right so Malik Collins and Jordan Elliott in for Eric Armstead and essentially Javon kinlaw uh Armstead you know this is based on on projection and production hopefully Armstead has a healthy year for the Jaguars I bear him no ill will kinlaw was healthy in the Niners for the I think all of last season in a backup role and the ners are going to see him week one as a starter but I'm excited about these two players the ners have three starting defensive tackles on their team and they have three starting defensive ends on their team people are worried about depth and I have my hesitations as well but what team has three four starting caliber DN and four starting caliber D tackles let's just keep that in mind it's hard to build a roster of starters everywhere including your depth but I think the dline is better pass rush wise should be better hopefully they can get back to stopping the run so 50 close to 50% new on the dline linebackers they're wor right you lose Dre Greenlaw they're worse it's just a matter of how much they can minimize that drop off with Fred Warner DeAndre Campbell Demetrius Flanigan fowls D Winters Curtis Robinson and Tatum bethon three new players at the position so right now half for new right it's Campbell it's Robinson even though he was on the practice squad he didn't get called up really last year at all I don't think and a rookie in Tatum bethon now that the Lion Share of the Snaps are going to go to Warner and Campbell it's going to be probably a battle between uh Winters and Flanigan fowls for who's going to be the next tight end up off the bench and the loser of that battle and Robinson will probably be special teams I don't think bethon will be um active on game days if indeed he is the sixth linebacker but three new there 50% and you have a veteran in Campbell you have I think a third-year player in Robinson and a rookie in bethon so you're again it's another position where they're kind of spanning The Experience Spectrum there at linebacker and cornerback Ward Lenor yadam green rocksen and Daryl lutter it's been announced by um Nick senson that Ward and L Lenor will start as their base to starting Corners when teams go to Nickel which is extremely often and this is the formation they will be in most often it will be Ward and yadam outside Lenor in starting at nickel so green is going to be probably your first uh Corner Off the Bench probably outside but maybe at nickel as well then probably Yin and then lutter who has probably just only outside uh cornerback right now skills three new players again 50% new in the cornerback room safeties I'm going to say same you're going to get Huff um whether he's active for week one or week two but he's back you have Jer Brown year two taking a step forward you have George odm got valuable snaps in the preseason in training camp as a starter and Malik Mustafa who I don't think they're going to call his number week one against the Jets if hu funga is down I think it will be Jer Brown and um George Odum as starting hopefully I didn't say Lamar Odum um George odm starting um but Mustafa I think we've liked what we what we've seen in terms of a strong safety and a hitter one new player there so 25% new so across your defense you have 11 new players on the defense and overall uh 2 4 6 8 10 14 17 20 21 new players on a 53-man roster now they're not all young and and rookies they're getting a good contribution from their rookie class this year for sure or all rookies all rookies from the class making the team um and I think I might have skipped over wide receivers real quick if I did if I did I'll make this quick so ba Debo Jennings connley cowing Bell and Piel Pi Piel obviously on the non football injury list um out for at least four years better depth when everybody's healthy than they've had the past couple years um the top three are going to remain in the top three Conley will probably be active um week one as with especially for special teams but also being a a trusted veteran and um Bell might be up as well but certainly Co for uh punt returnability the wide receivers are better it may take a couple weeks for BA to get back into it um with his extended hold out but ba I think a motivated Debo in a contract year Jennings and you have a lot of familiar faces that have built chemistry already with um Brock pie but then you're bringing in an explosive player like connley who adds some excitement and Juice punt returns as long as he's reliable and when Piero's back another explosive player who's getting four weeks to heal from from The Gunshot but also four more weeks for the shoulder to get right as well but 21 new players out of a 53 man roster so you're talking 30 35% um or about 40% new that's good turnover while you're keeping your core players or a lot a whole lot of the core players for Armstead really and building your depth through free agency and the draft and hopefully the draft representing that next generation of very good players to broal caliber players that is obviously a bit away and remains to be seen so to me this is a better better roster a better roster than what they had last year if it's you know saying it's a better team they got to put the pieces together right it's the Super Bowl hangover is usually not 100% of the time but the majority of the time a real thing they have to stay hungry they have to stay with a chip on their shoulder they have to hold off NFC teams that are on the come the Lions the Eagles the Packers the Cowboys we'll see what the Falcons can do the Rams um there there are Challengers right there are Challengers and they have some tough AFC games as well so we'll see if the team is better maybe they don't get to 12 and five like they did last year maybe they are an 11- six team or or 10 and seven at the worst but they get hot at the right time and and you know primed to make a Deep Run statistically for what it's worth I think outside of anybody getting injured I think Brock's going to go over 4,000 yards again he should be over 30 touchdowns and if he can keep the interceptions under 14 I think that'll be a very efficient year for him I think mcaffrey if they can spell him a bit more I think he would go 1250 on the ground 450 through the air looking around 15 toal touchdowns I think receiving ba and KD both go over a thousand and I think Debo doesn't quite get there again in the air but goes over a thousand combined yards because they're still going to use them as a runner especially if they're looking to spell mcaffrey it not that it's an all Hands-On deck situation but you're not going you're not going to not give Debo a handoff during the course of the season and I think the rookies were going to take into account piol missing at least the first four games but I think piol and cowing if they can combine for 40 catches because again they're they're at at the very best receiver number four on the team and that's how CO's going to start off as uh week one starts behind your your top three of of IU KD and and Jennings I'm sorry iuk dvo and Jennings then you have kle getting receptions then you have mcaffry receptions are going to be hard to come by so folks should temper their expectations on what piol and cow are going to do especially piol given the fact that he's out for the first four weeks but I think a combined 40 now remember jaman Jennings played all all 17 or yeah all 17 games last season I think he was active for that Ram game week 18 he only had 19 receptions so that's why I'm saying if they can if they can both get to 20 I'm just making a a parallel to what we saw the number three receiver do that's 40 catches but neither one of these receivers are going to be the number three receiver at any point in time unless there are injuries which the Niners are are known and prone to have but I think and and that doesn't make piol a bus that doesn't make cowing not valuable let's not go off of what we saw against the Ravens with the chiefs with Xavier worthy with a couple touchdowns and over she rice I don't know how he's allowed to play this season had a big game and I know he's a seconde player but let's all remember though Kyle with rookies it's always been a little bit of a dicey situation Dominic puny winning the Right Guard spot was really by default when you think about it is he talented yes I'm not taking anything away from him but he had no competition Feliciano got hurt berford broke his hand and wasn't able to play in games or or in Camp for you know a couple weeks two or three weeks puny played well enough to start if he fell flat on his face and sucked it would have been a different thing he played well enough to start and I know you know the stats people are going to point to you know only gave I don't know if it was he or or um Jarett Kingston the sixth round pick who's now with the Panthers how they gave up minimal to no pressures or sacks during their snaps in the preseason if that meant so much guys jarck Kingston would not have been released take let's take everything with the grain of salt who who puny is going to see week one in Quinn Williams and others Javon Kino and others on the jet defensive line vastly different Step Up in competition than anything that he saw in the preseason um so let's let's stay on like the D line let's flip it around I think Bosa UPS his sack total from last year I can see him having around 14 I can see uh Leonard Floyd benefiting from Bosa and vice versa nine and nine and a half sacks for Floyd and I think utor gr mat when that knee gets right I think about five sacks and interceptions um I think your leaders are going to be Ward with five Lenor with four and Jer brown with three not to say who funga or any other players linebackers aren't going to get any interceptions but I'm just thinking about you know your top corners and your um at least topper healthiest safety coverage safety at the moment so I'm not going to give the Jets game away yet but I think and I did this um when the schedule came out but God knows I don't remember April uh or March whenever that happened so I went through it again and I think this is a team that's going to be either 11- six or 12 and 5 I think that's fair you know could they go 13- 4 10- 7 sure if things break right you can push that extra win if there's injuries or some surprising upsets you know I I could see 10 and seven you know just because they're super talented on paper doesn't mean upsets can't happen there's always games every team every year you think they're going to win and they lose or you think they're going to lose and they win it just happens but I looked at the schedule and just kind of went with okay let's start with the the games and and teams that they should beat like so I here's my wins list at Minnesota at home for New England at home for Arizona at Tampa at home for Seattle at home for Chicago at home for the Rams and at Arizona so that's eight games eight wins now are they all going to happen boy I hope so would I be shocked if there's an upset somewhere no it's the NFL the way the ball bounces turnovers inclement weather things can affect the outcome of games but I think those are very eight very very winnable games I think we can agree on that let me go with the loss the loss list and as much as I hate to say I mean none of us are going to say the ners are going to win every game Vegas has them favored in every game I think they were favored in every game last year but maybe the Eagle game doesn't really mean that and they're favored in the Super Bowl right doesn't mean really anything especially when you're when you're projecting favorites before preseason before rosters are settled before games start before there are injuries things that can adjust point spread so much but I'm marking down losses right now unfortunately at home against the Chiefs you know they they got to beat him until I feel otherwise do I think they can beat him this year yeah and when we get to that game May I change his prediction sure hey Patrick Mahomes may be hurt they might miss momes and Kelsey and P who knows right but until they beat him I'm going to pick the Chiefs and at Buffalo that's a nighttime game in December the ners can run the ball they play physical it's not like they're going to wilt but I think that Bills game could be very tough and I'm gonna I'm going to count it as a loss teams are going to beat the Niners right it's just a matter of of who and then the toss-up games right the games that can go either way week one against the Jets at the Rams at Seattle at home for Dallas at Green Bay at Miami and Detroit that's seven tossup games so if you want to you know play it conservatively or or or at least me mathematically you want to split it down the middle that's three and a half losses they can't have half a loss so you could say either three losses or four losses so if I have them losing at the Chiefs and at home at the Chiefs and at the bills three losses brings them to 12 and five four losses from those tossup games brings them to 11- six I thought 11 and six or 12 and five originally before I went through the schedule then this I remember this is what I did in terms of checking my work and it feels right again there's going to be surprise wins for the Niners or or a comeback or definitely there's going to be a surprise loss right upsets happen to every team every season but this is how I see it playing out and again if the ners can go 12 and five again or or 11 and six I think that'll be good enough to win the West is it going to be good enough to get the number one seed while the you know the way the Eagles looked uh and the Packers week one and it's just week one let's not overreact to that Jordan Love's injury is going to have a big say for that you know um how quickly the Eagles Implement Squan Barkley he had a great first game right what two or three touchdowns Jaylen Herz still throwing like weird crossbody High School type throw picks but how they can adapt to Kell Moore's offense and Vic fangio's defense um they'll be battling they'll be right there with Dallas battling for um the top spot in the NFC e then you obviously have the Cowboys you have the Lions to worry about the lines have gotten better the lines have gotten better and they see Detroit in December I think it's a Monday night game in Santa Clara so Niners are Geared for it right they're they're pumped up for it they have just as good of a chance of get the number one seed as anybody in the conference and they have just as good a chance as representing the NFC if even if everybody stays healthy on every team the roster is so good so many stars so many all Pros so much more growth in the younger players like perie or anti if you're again if you're anticipating Stroud and love taking a step forward you cannot say differently about Brock that even though this team might be you know 11 and six or 12 and five say same record or a game worse they could be a better team possible defensively let's get back to stopping the Run let's start dictating their will and playing much more downhill and it starts week one Monday night hosting the Jets when the line came out when this the schedule was announced that the N the Niners were a six-point favorite it's down to depending on where you look four four and a half three and a half guys this is a talented team this is a very talented team in a very difficult AFC and a difficult AFC East with the bills and um dolphins and it starts with Rogers if he plays more than four snaps if he plays more than four games if he plays the whole season this is a team that's going to make the playoffs they're they have a very good chance or maybe a better chance than any team in the division to win the division the defense is Top Notch it's going to be a top three unit all season they can stop the run they can get after the quarterback and they can lock down with their Corners the best cornerback Trio in the NFL starts offensively though they rebuilt the offensive line three new starters two new tackles and Tyron Smith from Dallas and Morgan Moses they also brought John Simpson in at left guard from the Ravens Mike Williams a free agent addition from the Chargers he is working his way back from a torn ACL he will be on a snap count week one you still have rookie uh Malachi Corley to join Garrett Wilson and Alan Lazard who you have to figure will have a bounceback year under Rogers versus the garbage that they were trotting out at w at quarterback last season and Bree Hall at running back strong bounceback season from the Tor ACL he's a top five running back in the NFL if that line can give him space the threat the presence of Rogers and those receivers is going to give him space and catching the ball out of the back field top five allaround back in the NFL this is a team that can put up points they can stop teams from scoring this is a very difficult matchup for San Francisco week one and it's early in the season so you're going to you know that defenses are going to be ahead of offenses unless you're the the Packers and the Eagles when you put up 65 uh total points on a field where everybody apparently was slipping was not great footing um but both teams had to play on it right and you had to make adjustments but I think this is a team where as many snaps as Rogers took in training camp he didn't play in preseason but living in the Northeast listening to Sports Talk he took 800 snaps with the offense now what that means when there's no live Rush coming after him where he has to plan and maybe run and use some Mobility to sidestep pressure different animal when when you know the bullets are actually flying during a game and people are coming to tackle you with bad intentions but it's going to start and end with Rogers and the undercard right there is the o line because you know the skill positions are are very good and you know the defense is Elite I mentioned the best quarterback Trio in the league in SAU former Niner and Seahawk DJ re and Michael Carter thei who recently got a contract extension from the Jets they have very good linebackers in CJ Mosley and Quincy Williams and the dline quinnon Williams is obviously the biggest name that jumps out but then not many other proven players as starters or key players especially with Hassan reic still holding out and he's not going to be playing week one per Robert Salah defensive tackles joining Quinny Williams you have former 49er Javon kinlaw starting and listen he was healthy last year and this is a Revenge game for him you know he's going to want to show out against his former team and prove that not bringing him back Al the Niners were not going to match what the Jets did salary-wise that it was a mistake same with Solomon Thomas former 49 he's been with the Jets for a couple years went over when and Robert Salah took over two years ago as the head coach and at DNS without reic you have Germaine Johnson in his third year out of Florida State Michael Clemens I think in his third year out of Texas A&M you have Will McDonald second year out of West Virginia and Tac McKinley who's actually not in the NFL last year so I think Germaine Johnson you know might have had eight or so sacks Michael Clemens I think maybe around four or five last year will McDonald I think had three they can get after the quarterback but you don't have without a reic you don't have a reic or you don't have a Bosa type player Ken Williams with no training camp and obviously Colton mckivitz hand up against the rush when you you know Williams is going to get a push inside you know kinla for as as uneven as his play has been he's a big ass strong dude he's going to get a push and you know the corners the secondary is going to play like the Ravens did Last Christmas night like the Chiefs did when they adjusted they're going to play man they're not going to play Man exclusively but they will play a lot of man they will challenge these receivers they'll play Pressman disrupt the timing of this offense for Debo auk Jennings and others to not get a free release and these Corners pie and Kyle need to show that they can beat man consistently Brock was a very good quarterback in the regular season against man coverage the anomaly games were and he might have been the number one against he think he was number one beating the blitz he might have been number one against man or Z man or zone defense I know he was number one against one of those but it's the Super Bowl is still fresh in a lot of people's minds as is the Christmas game and that's why the former defensive coordinator of the Ravens going over to Seattle he's going to bring that philosophy and I don't think Seattle's going to be a walk over this year they'll probably finish third in the west but they have Personnel that can match up against the Niners like the Ravens did on defense like the Chiefs did um with McDuffy and Sneed who's now with Tennessee or Indianapolis he's in that I think Tennessee and like the Jets obviously have with sauce with Reed and with Michael Carter force feed KD this game they didn't do it in the Super Bowl and whether K was swallowed up by whoever was playing him man or if they were playing you know Zone on KD behind any sort of man they were playing on the outside receivers it was great to see K go over a th yards um you know receptions he had a bounce back Year from the past couple but he's a player and I think it was one of the um Kelsey Brothers saying I think it might I don't know if it was Travis or um Jason that they were surprised they didn't go through KD more that the offense runs best through Kido the offense that was that's their opinion the offense runs best through mcaffrey I mean he is in a way the engine that opens everything up running and passing right you can say it goes through Debo I don't think you can say goes through auk it either goes through a tight end a running back which is interesting given how a lot of other teams are structured you can say the offense in Miami goes through Tyreek Hill or Justin Jefferson in Minnesota um maybe Jamar Chason Cincinnati when he signs either and the offense in Kansas city has gone through Travis Kelce for a lot of years with him being 35 now maybe that does transition to Pacheko or Rashid rice you know Kelsey is going to have an impact but DEA um not DEA I'm sorry KD graded out as the number one tight end last year per Pro Football Focus I think it's okay to force feed him not if someone else is wide open you know you're not trying to make some sort of a stubborn adamant point about it but he can't come out against the Jets again a very good defense but he can't come out and have a two catch performance like he did in the Super Bowl got to have at least four or five at least run it 30 times I mean I think as good as the Jets defense is they're a better pass defense than a run defense so if you want a three-headed monster with maccaffrey Mason and gendo and you want to Pound That Rock 30 times and if you want to say 15 to 18 with mcaffrey maybe Mason gets close to 10 and maybe fiveish for G gendo pound that front mcaffry is not a battering ram Mason sort of is and gendo's a blend of power and speed even run it if you're not getting the yards per carry you want you don't want to be one-dimensional you don't want to turn into a predictable offense where defensive coordinator Jeff albrook knows passes coming more often than not and he adjusts his coverages or disguises his coverage accordingly and you want to make sure play action is a thing to me play I I've a firm believer that play action is a thing even if you're not running it well especially if it's taking more than just the line the D line to get St it means committing linebackers to run defense and maybe bringing a safety down because they know every team knows that Kyle loves to run the ball so if the if the ners have 20 rushes for 65 yards volume still is important to keep the defense honest and make play action a legitimate threat defensively what will senson draw up is he going to be more all gas no breaks is he going to simplify the defensive coverages on the back end and give the dline again more of abilities to win their one-on-one matchups so their backend counterparts kind of know what to expect I don't think Steve WS confused anybody anybody in the um back field I think he was probably trying to confuse quarterbacks and he drew up a really good scheme for the first two and a half quarters of the Super Bowl and then just you know Patrick Mahomes is Patrick Mahomes you're not going to keep him down like you're not going to keep Brady down or Montana down all four quarters eventually they figure it out pton Manning Drew Brees others but what is he going to draw how often or how viciously and quickly are they going to test that o line obviously with a fourman you tested every play right with a four-man rush but is he going to disguise a blitz how often are they going to bring five or six how often are they going to play man up on these big receivers I mean Garrett Wilson's 6 61 Alan lazard's big six what 64 Mike Williams same thing 64 big receivers outside of travarius Ward Leno's 510 um yam's big 61 62 um green about six feet tall can they force Rogers into issues can they get sacks can they get pressure Force turnovers see how good this new revamped o line is whether you're doing it with four five or six the Runde we saw it get gashed for the better half of last year and through the playoffs played somewhat better in the Super Bowl but the first two playoff games not good can they can they tighten that up limit Bree Hall dual threat make Rogers a 40-year-old Rogers coming off of an Achilles Sergey I think he'll be just as mobile as he was before and he was never the most mobile I'm not going to buy into well the Achilles he probably going to slow down I got to see it first so I'm I'm going to go into this I'm sure coaching staff's going to go into this believing that they're going to be facing vintage MVP caliber Aaron Rogers because you wouldn't game plan any other way but if the run run defense is better can you let can you hold them to under a 100 yards running rushing the ball it's Rogers first live action in 20 months or real full game action he did play a year ago but that was four snaps but assuming he stays healthy and hopefully he does no one's hoping for injury by any means but first full game action in 20 months it's on the road there's no Hassan reic their number two receiver in Mike Williams isn't 100% if Lazard starts I don't know if there's going to be a significant drop off I mean Williams is the more talented receiver but the chemistry and experience he has with Rogers at quarterback means something on the ners side you have the late arrival by auk and Williams you know how is that going to impact their conditioning how polished will they be in their respective positions you have CM McCaffrey's calf or Achilles that hopefully is not a thing but it's on the injury report and then you have the DNS the depth with gross mat still being up in the air to play on Monday night uh and who who would they call up so they have four pass rushers on the field you flip it around on on offense you know let's just highlight Brock right this is Brock's first game action real game action since the Super Bowl where Brock acquitted himself touchdown no interceptions gave his team a chance to win it gave the lead late in the fourth gave the lead in overtime fourth quarter Chiefs matched the touchdown uh matched the field goal and in overtime obviously they scored the touchdown so Brock we could say Brock did what he needed to do he didn't he didn't punt he didn't there was no punting involved and not giving his team a chance to score and we know about the blitzes and offensive breakdowns and pass protection that could have prevented a win we will never know for certain especially in overtime that Miss on on Chris Jones Brandon wuk being wide open remember the Chiefs would have gotten a crack at the ball and who knows if they would have scored and gone for two we just don't know Brock wants to be more aggressive I applaud that I think the offense as a whole is more aggressive to me than the defense um and Shanahan sometimes borderlines that aggressive it's that borderline between aggressive and Reckless or sometimes stupid getting away from the run and again it doesn't have to be mcaffrey running it you still have Mason as a very strong number two but Brock if you want to be more aggressive against this defense and and I know he said he wants to come out and not feel like they're taking their foot off the gas and giving teams life and turning third Downs into first downs putting more points on the board really stepping on a team's neck and I want to see that too and I want to see defenses step on another team's neck necks plural offensively when they're up 7 10 13 17 strip sack pick six I know these are things that don't happen all that often but exert your will don't let the team breathe don't let the team give a chance to come back but again with aggressiveness for Brock and the offense sometimes if you're up by a score or two the best play is a throwaway and a punt Don't Give A Team Life by making a difficult throw by running around throwing across your body being too confident while I like the mentality there are times there are times to be aggressive and I want to see this team be aggressive for nearly all 60 minutes right it's just hard to say there are down and distances and times like you know third and 25 you're probably handing it off or throwing a screen or doing something conservative but against this defense if you're up or even if you're down you don't want to give them life if you're up you don't want to give them life in a chance cuz now you're dealing with Rogers you're not dealing with Garrett Wilson or um whoever their backup situation was whoever else their backup situation was not Garrett Wilson Zach Wilson excuse me Trevor Simeon you're dealing with a legit quarterback that can turn a turnover into you know three or seven quickly it's okay to protect the ball getting a lead extending a lead going from 10 to 17 is huge right that's two scores to three scores but there is the fine line between aggressive and Reckless that against a team like this can burn them and I don't want to see a stupid play in their own end or or in the red zone or scoring zone or while they're driving that prevents the ners from getting or extending lead where something a bit more judicious would have sufficed now week one week one anything can happen right I said before the defenses are going to be ahead of the offens the offense I think a very weird thing I think there's I would love to see Ricky peol come out with the flag uh R get that team fired up rallied around him I'm not using the injury or the shooting as as that they should use it for motivation but what the hell man like a couple more inches Any Which Way in his chest and he he might have died I think there's an energy I think opening up on Monday Night Football opening up against a team that knows they want to show that they're legit that last year was they were still a competitive team for a lot of games I mean they were close against the Chiefs they were they beat the Eagles without a quarterback without a viable quarterback they were in a lot of games and if you have now obviously a future hall of fame or two time or three time um MVP this is a very good Jets team this is a big litmus test type of game for both sides and I think the defense is going to Corral both offenses what I'm not sure what the over under is I would take it unless the overunderish 36 and a half because I have the Niners winning 20 to 17 now if the Niners go in there and blow the doors off awesome if the Jets come out you know squeak out a win all right it's week one if the Jets blow the doors off our conversations on on Tuesday are going to be very different and there is going to be Panic time in nerville but I think the experience how much the offense has jelled um and are building upon what they did last year remember it's an offense with two MVP candidates in perie and mcaffry and an offensive player of the the year in McCaffrey the defense for the 49ers is the wild card with a new coordinator and how he's going to dial stuff up first time calling plays in a real game against a Hall of Fame quarterback and a very good offense flip side the offense and especially the line is the wild card for the Jets so the strengths are going against each other the Niner o and the Jets D the slight question marks independent of the talent on the field on each Squad it's how it's going to come together the Jets o and the Niners D the question marks are going against each other I have the Niners winning by three right around the point spread whatever it may have been three three and a half four four and a half I think it's going to be a onore game so that's going to conclude the podcast for today on Saturday um if you're listening today again as always thank you for taking time out of your busy schedule to make us part of your listening routine college football on today pro football started th Thursday and Friday Full Slate of games on Sunday concluding with what we've all been waiting for the ners kicking off the season at home on Monday Night Football primed to hopefully make another run at that elusive sixth Championship enjoy your football weekend whatever else you are doing until we talk again stay happy stay healthy and stay safe take care everybody