[Applause] [Music] [Music] [Music] w [Music] [Applause] I mean it really um is starting to feel the worst of it um our communities that are farther toward uh Metropolitan New Orleans and then up toward the NorthShore brace yourselves cuz it's coming yeah we are now in the thick of it at least for the next few hours this is when we're going to feel the brunt of those impacts we've been seeing the rain and the wind all day long but we've really started to see it intensify over about the last hour and a half now yeah absolutely making landfall as a category 2 hurricane um I need to verify that with Chris Category 2 hurricane it made landfall as as a category 2 storm okay um so we were expecting a one for for quite some time then now it has turned to a two so um you know that's where we are that's what's going in the history books yes and our meteorologists have been keeping a very close eye on the developments any strengthening the path all of the above we're going to head over right now to meteorologist Alexa trisler with the latest update Alexa yes so it has officially made landfall in tabone Parish about 30 Mi South Southwest of Morgan City and now that it's moving Inland the worst of the impacts will be spreading Inland for tabone parish for our Bayou parishes and River Parishes we'll be seeing the worst of the weather over the next couple of hours now that the eye is making landfall it has made landfall we'll continue to see those hurricane force winds spread over lower tabone Parish over the next couple of hours H to Tibido seeing that Heavy Rain there is a flash flood warning in effect for H so now is the time of course you don't want to go outside exploring to see what's happening this is when you want to stay indoors and just wait this thing out as we get through the worst of the weather that's going to continue to happen throughout the rest of the evening into tonight we'll kind of look across the area and see where those rain bands are setting up the whole entire South East Louisiana south Mississippi here seeing those heavy downpours pushing in across the area so it was surprising yes it did increase to a category 2 strength at landfall but now as it is moving inward even though we're seeing the worst of the impacts as it moves Inland over land it will weaken as we go throughout the rest of tonight but still expecting the worst of the impacts happening now and then we'll see those immediately improving conditions going into the overnight hour so the roughest of the rain and the winds happening and The Surge happening right now so this is when you want to wait it out and hopefully we don't lose power uh across too many spots but but it is certainly a possibility we could see some power outages the rest of tonight we've got those heavier bands pushing in for the NorthShore from sidel to Covington pangi Baha Parish Washington Parish south Mississippi heavy downpours coming into Hancock County there is a little bit of a break in the rain for parts of the Southshore so St Bernard and plaman seeing a break in the rain but it just comes and goes it es and flows with the heaviest of the showers but the strongest of the the convection or the storms really focused in that eyewall from Tibido to to gallano that's where the strongest of the Winds and the heaviest of the downpours and the strongest of those tropical storm force and hurricane force winds are happening right in that eyewall and right as the eye moves on Shore this is where the worst of the weather is happening for our Coastal Bayou parishes and then those impacts will be spreading northeastward so it's possible that this kind of wobbles a little bit to the East and and moves in this North northeasterly Direction bringing the strongest of the Winds over our River Parishes heading into this evening so this is what we have actually new flash flood warning in effect for lefou Parish because this is just some very heavy rain with this eyewall moving in really heavy downpour so from gallano to Tibido extremely heavy rain coming in right now so flooded roadways certainly happening across our Bayou parishes at this point so heavy downpours continuing to see this flash flooding a possibility over the next couple of hours so unfortunately that's what we have going into right now into tonight the worst of the weather is here but at least we'll be getting it over with I know by the overnight hours this will be basically out of here so at least we're getting into the worst of the weather now as that iall has made it on Shore the eye has made landfall in tabone Parish just South Southwest of Morgan City by about 30 mies so the ey has made it on Shore landfall has happened in tabone Parish so we just have to wait it out and get through these heavy heavy bands get through the strong winds and then overnight tonight we'll be seeing quieter weather coming in we've been talking about how it kind of blossomed and strengthened up right before it made landfall and you can see that depicted very well on our satellite it looked like you know it was going to maintain itself as a cat one and then boom those storms really started to fire up right before we got to landfall but as it moves over land that weakening will start to take shape later this evening don't want to downplay the impacts that we're seeing now because we are getting the heavy rain and the very strong winds across the area and they'll continue into tonight but the dry air that we've been talking about is going to continue to wrap around it and that's why some of that heaviest of the rain is starting to show up on the northern and western side of the system now so let's look at those wind gusts happening across the area because the winds are really picking up especially offshore so are offshore oil rigs that are a little bit higher off the ground by like 100 feet are really seeing the highest wind gusts they're a little bit elevated yeah sorry someone's talking to in my ear could you say that again sorry oh what are we showing now okay okay we're gonna okay we're going to get Chris over here now but yeah we're taking a live look where are we looking at right now this is showan chauan okay yes seeing the heaviest of the the impacts happening across our Coastal spots now so are you are you popping in yeah we're this is live TV folks yes the show van camera down toward where the storm is now making landfall just showing the inundation of the area this is a camera we've been showing you since earlier this morning so P Malone was showing this camera still had pretty dry conditions but steadily that storm surge is moving Inland and will continue to do so again as we had talked to Jamie Rome a little while ago from the Hurricane Center he said some areas will begin seeing improvements with the storm surge levels fairly shortly and then others it will still be a bit ongoing again we have a very large Coastline all of the coastline is being impacted by the storm surge some areas may start to improve certainly out toward Vermilion Cameron Parish maybe Western St Mary Parish will start to see improving conditions however for tabone lefo Jefferson plans we have the storm surge still moving in and really it won't be until the Storm Center is a bit farther to the north and we then have that wind direction change as Alexa had mentioned we did officially as of the 5:00 advisory have landfall of Francine it will go down in the record books as a category two one thing and something thing that you know great respect for the folks at the Hurricane Center they do amazing work forecast models are impeccable with their forecast compared to other models however it is a little and this is something that even Jamie kind of alluded to as well it does tend to be a little misleading when you have that what seems to be a sudden jump in those winds and that increase in the category so we went from 90 mph winds those had been maintained since last night all day today and then suddenly it looked like we had this explosion in strength and that just did not happen we did have a little burst of thunderstorms convection that I had mentioned but that really wasn't what was the driving force what was the driving force was not actually a landbased observation when the hurricane Hunters are flying in the storm they are collecting data kind of from their flight level down to the surface they can use algorithms to figure out what their winds are at flight level and kind of figure out what it may be estimated down at the surface now this is usually a fairly accurate estimate but that is where that wind speed of 100 mph came from not from any of our landbased observations as you can see the storm is only 30 m away from Morgan City and the winds there 44 miles hour now I don't want to downplay it too much but I also don't want people too worked up about the category 2 classification or those Winds of 100 miles an hour that really doesn't change anything that we are expecting with the impacts throughout the rest of the night and into of the day tomorrow now one thing Jamie did mention is that we could see this and you almost watch there's the track Center Line of that track so we are still falling within the conb but we have seen is notice how the center of the storm is a little bit more on the Eastern side of that track so it has been favoring a or on the western side so it almost looks like it's favoring a little bit more on the East which again would put maybe the brunt of this storm a little bit more over Metro New Orleans here is kind of what had been a little bit more of that well-defined eyewall and that is what is pushing across Tibido right now we were getting the reports from uh Lily Cummings in h and while she she actually I forgot what the text the last text was I think it was over 40 m an hour uh she was getting of her weather station that we've set up with our mobile forecast Center so we've getting the winds accurately read in hom that was within the eyewall So within the eyewall itself and again not to downplay it at all we're only finding sustained winds of 40 plus mil an hour so really just barely at those of a tropical storm certainly some stronger wind gusts but all the reports that we are getting has been the winds have been more tame than what a 100 mph maximum wind speed would kind of make you believe now again I do not want to downplay that at all it is still dangerous to be out on the roads and you definitely do not want to be out in this storm through the rest of the afternoon and into the night tonight so I don't want to down play but I also want to give you a sense of reality and what is actually happening and that was something I kind of talked a little bit about a moment ago was in yesterday and mon what is today Wednesday yesterday Monday even into the weekend it was more of the forecast is it Wednesday we it is Wednesday yes I don't think anybody here knows we were talking more about the the the forecast where it's it's very much our estimated guesses of what will happen where is the storm going to go kind of analyzing the structure of the storm figuring out what the impacts are going to be at this point I'm not as Reliant upon the models as we've kind of seen the models have a little bit more overestimated what is actually happening in reality and that's why it does help us as meteorologists us as a news organization and then to provide to you why we have people out in the field I know sometimes we're kind of criticized for we're telling you to be inside but then we're sending people out and about we are trying to keep we are keeping them safe but trying to provide you the information that is actually happening so hopefully you're not in hom but you're able to see what is actually going on all right stepping off my soap box for a minute those heavier rainbands and some of the gustier winds are certainly moving in the direction of New Orleans we don't have much longer before we get into some of these more intense rains flash flood warnings are rampant with those bands moving through so that is what we can expect over the course of the next several hours now at the moment a little bit of a break from the more intense rains kind of a steady rain across the area and then these little pockets of some brief heavy downpours but boy the rain moves very very quickly and that has been the one thing that's going to work in our favor is just how fast the rain is pushing through and how fast this storm is going to move out of Southeast Louisiana rain on the North Shore has become a little bit more intense over the last hour or two we're getting a a bit more of those pockets of the moderate to heavy rainfall and that is going to continue throughout the rest of the evening and night visible satellite doesn't really give us a clear picture I was hoping we see a little bit more of a break from those clouds with that drier air we can switch over to our infrared and you don't see the intense storms offshore so what we're going to be watching through the rest of this evening is going to be what rain is south of Southeast Louisiana what the intensity of those storms are because that is really what's going to be moving over most of the area but we also have had that little burst of convection right before the 4:00 advisory it looks like that may be kind of falling apart a bit and hopefully now with the storm on land we should start to see further weakening of the storm although it is moving so quickly that is not going to really happen very very rapidly and something else to note one thing I had done was when the 5:00 advisory came out I immediately went to Google Earth typed in the coordinates to see where exactly that Center Point was and it was Inland over terone Parish so it made landfall however if you were to go to Google Earth and type in those coordinates of where the storm is right now it's not land it's Marsh so it is that brown ocean effect which means it's still over warm water it is still able to kind of generate a bit of energy so if you're hoping for kind of a too rapidly weaken that's not going to happen but as I've said thankfully those maximum winds first off I don't think there's going to be anyone that finds 100 mph winds anywhere and second thankfully that Windfield is very very small small and sometimes kind of misleading when we're talking about these storms and sometimes uh seemingly contradictory we talk about the winds we talk about everything else and then we say don't mention or don't focus on that don't pay attention to this it is tropical systems are very complicated a lot that goes into the impacts a lot that goes into what it could possibly do and there has been discussions I've mentioned that with Jamie Rome about do we actually have other scales aside from the saffr Simpson scale which just takes into account those maximum winds there have been discussions should there be a scale for rain should there be a scale for wind and storm surge and other uh uh flooding on the coast flooding from Inland rainfall it'd be too complicated so the best that we have is the saffr Simpson scale to kind of Base it on those winds but as Jamie also mentioned that 100 mph wind is one observation at one point in the storm it is not a very good representative of the entirety of the storm believe me there have been other Category 2 storms with Winds of 100 mph that were far more dangerous and far more powerful than hurricane Francine is and that is certainly good news to us as the storm is moving Inland radar we're going to continue with the intense rain but notice there isn't a great deal even South so we may get into some breaks if that drier air is playing the role that we have been talking about and hoping would occur wind sustained at Morgan City 52 m an hour now it is inching closer at the 4:00 advisory or excuse me at the 5:00 advisory it was only a 50 it's only 30 Mi away so last 15 minutes it has already moved another 17 miles so it is a little closer to Morgan City right now but winds there 52 mil an hour so we're just in the kind of mid low to mid tropical storm range from a category 2 hurricane that's why those 100 m per hour winds are a little bit misleading now we don't officially have data in h but we have Lily Cummings can provide the Homa data for us and if she's listening to me maybe she can text me a little bit uh what the winds are doing there note how the winds have been gusting now to 40 plus miles an hour over the metro area so we are kind of getting the uh nearing that um kind of now broadening out Northeastern Eye wall of Francine is inching a little bit closer to the metro area so sustained winds have say roughly about 30 mph but gusting to 40 plus mil an hour and those winds will be spreading farther to the NorthShore really not too much longer from now as the storm will continue to pick up a little bit of that forward speed now based upon the models notice this is what the model thinks the winds are doing right now 30 to near 40 mil an hour so again we'll go back in time just in case you forgot we're looking at about 30 m an hour with gust up to about 40 m an hour so that's what's happening right now 30 it's kind of maybe overestimating the numbers a little bit so keep that in mind when you look at these numbers 40 to 5050 mph and gusting 60 to even 80 M an hour I do think those are more on the high end of a forecast if it was me I would say we're probably looking at 40 plus mph maybe 40 to 50 as a safe bet for the sustained winds over the metro area in the next few hours so this is 8:00 so this is only in 3 hours from now and gusting I would say 60 to 70 I think 80 mph wind gust is very very much on the high end but a lot of it will U be determined by just how close the Center and that eyewall is able to get to Metro New Orleans Jamie mentioned that fact that it could be a little bit closer and even if it is just off to our West we're still on some of the strongest winds with that eyewall on the northeastern and then Eastern side of it as it continues to move farther north those winds spread farther north onto the NorthShore and by overnight tonight after midnight winds will immediately start to diminish and changing direction and a direction that would favor pushing all of that water storm surge water out of the lake away from the coast and we will start to immediately start to see we will immediately see improving conditions a lot of these totals are probably being experienced right now from Morgan City down toward cadry as the storm is moving Inland so we'll kind of take a look at some of the water levels coming up here in a bit but 3 to 6 foot is what was anticipated and probably nearing that right now now as far as areas outside or excuse me not outside but east of the mouth of the river and into of the lake we're probably not quite to the highest points just yet that will likely Peak later this e well I should say more like later tonight and through the overnight as the Storm Center is a little bit closer to the lake and to the NorthShore so probably starting to see improving conditions in the next couple of hours along our Coastline and then as you go farther north it may take a little bit later into the night for conditions to start improving there wave heights estimated offshore are running 20 to 30 ft and that's a very very rough estimate that's not storm surge those are the wave heights but even notice how the storm itself would is a fairly uh small and and as far as tropical systems go a fairly weaker storm it's you know again just at a u don't want to say just it is only don't want to say only it is at the low end of our scale and again those Winds of 100 milph are fairly isolated but note what the winds the excuse me wave heights you're doing across most of the gulf Basin is that they have been kicked up by Francine which is a fairly little storm one thing that we have also been talking about and thankfully have haven't seen a ton of are the threat for those weak short-lived tornadoes that threat will be ongoing as we go throughout the rest of this afternoon and into the evening as far as where the heaviest of the rainfall will occur I do believe with that wind sheer