Nate Silver's POLLING Secrets for Election Success Revealed!

where are we now with this election do you think if you had the election today then Harris would have a slight Edge but a the election's not today and B we have to remember the Electoral College she is up right now by three three and a half points or so in National polls um there's been about a two and a half Point Gap though three-point gap between the popular vote and the Electoral College so she' probably have to win by by three three and a half to be safe in the Electoral College secondly she may be on a little bit of a sugar high after the convention after the VP picks everything else so our model has the November outcome basically 50-50 despite the fact that she's ahead by a small amount today is it always around 50/50 Now in America in other words is it going to come down as always to 40 50 60,000 votes we are so polarized we're not going to have elections like you have in the UK where you have big swings between labor and and and tories um yeah if 90% of people are locked in already I mean we saw when Biden was 82 years old trying to run for president until he was 86 and like plainly unable to execute he still was only four points behind Trump right um and you know look if you had Nikki Haley it might be might be a wider margin still um but the party label is all that matters for the large majority of American voters Trump it's believed at the moment has the edge with with men American men is that enough to get him over the edge he also had Rising support with Latinos and black Americans she carela Harris as a black woman nominee has paid back a little bit of that it seems what's the reality there I mean the elector is 51% uh women 49% men women are more reliable about most things including voting um it was funny that in her convention speech not funny but interesting it was targeted at male voters right she had a line about AI which is a very male coded thing she talked about like military strength and competition with China um which I thought was smart I mean a lot of Democrats try to play to their base but their base is actually not as large as it used to be you see for example younger voters of color are now maybe more agnostic or neutral about who they might want to vote for Hispanic voters have gone back to being more 50/50 and so yeah I think she was smart to go after men who are obviously a GOP leaning group in in this Dynamic C Harris was pretty unpopular before all this uh last two months of extraordinary developments um