we all know that jir Gibbs has what it takes to be an rb1 in general but does he have what it takes to be the rb1 overall well if you know anything about jir Gibbs the first half of his rookie season was awful if you were an owner you were concerned hey these guys took him 12th overall and they're not even using him and then when week seven hit we said Yep this is what we were expecting the entire time well if we extrapolate his games from week s until week 18 when they were actually using him would he have been a potential rb1 let's take a look at that jir Gibbs is 59 199 with a 29.4 BMI so it is generally below the 30.0 threshold to be a Bellow back and obviously when Dev Montgomery and Gibbs were healthy they were using them in a time share however as Z progressed Gibbs starting to get more and more usage and he even started to get goal line work and we even saw a couple games when DAV Montgomery wasn't healthy that g was used as a featured back and was given over 25 carries so he did appear to have what it took to be a bcow back when necessary when we take a look at his metrics his 436 40R Dash is in the 99th percentile now because he's 59 and 199 that gives him a 11 10.1 speed score which is in the 91st percentile that's still really really good if he was just a little bit bigger and was able to keep that 40 yard dash his speed score would be out of this world but regardless he is a very very good athlete when we think about where he's going in redraft and Dynasty in redraft he's going off the board as the rb5 and in Dynasty he's being drafted as the rb4 well he's a first round pick so he has already had one year of his contract used up but that would mean he has three guaranteed remaining then a fifth year option then they could potentially franchise him so that guarantees at least five more years remaining of playing in one of the best offenses for running back production so when we're finished examining his situation his Advanced stats and extrapolating his stats versus the 5-year averages to be an rb1 we're going to see if it does make sense for him to be taken fifth overall in redraft and fourth overall in Dynasty when jir Gibbs was picked 12th overall by the Lions multiple analysts gave it a d a c and f grade they hated the pick they thought it made no sense and the value was terrible while I understand the thought process of drafting a running back isn't going to help your team blah blah blah I thought it was a fantastic pick for them now I didn't have any idea that first of all Sam Le Porter was going to be as good as he was or that even the Lions offense was going to be quite as good as it was but Jared gof had been playing like you know an above average Quarterback they already had Alan ra St brown one of the Premier wide receivers even if he's generally a slot and flanker he can play X though but then they had brought in Dave Montgomery to be the PowerBack and then jir Gibbs to be the lightning as as well as a a a well above average receiving back I thought that along with the fact that their o line was tremendous made a lot of sense and it was going to make their offense explosive even if I didn't think it was going to be quite as explosive as it ended up being I mean when we look at his Collegiate profile he had 460 rushing yards as a freshman along with 303 receiving yards with seven total touchdowns and he had 24 receptions that is a very very good start as a freshman then he stepped it up to 746 rushing yards six total touchdowns and 470 receiving yards on 36 receptions as a sophomore both of those seasons were at Georgia Tech well he was incredibly impressive when he went to Alabama as a junior he had 926 rushing yards 10 total touchdowns 444 receiving yards and 44 receptions people were saying oh I don't know if he'll be a first round pick he looked every bit the part of a first round pick in my opinion now did I think he was going to be taken 12th overall no but I really thought he was going to be probably in the low 20s I bet the lions are really really happy they took him now and to further justify the point I'm getting at they finished fifth end team rushing yards per game they had 27 rushing touchdowns and they made the NFC Championship Game although they lost that was way further than really anyone had expected them to go and how did they do it on the back of rushing the ball they rode Dave Montgomery and jir Gibbs all the way to the NFC championship game so yes while running backs shouldn't be taken in the first round I understand what they're getting at but if you can really really improve your offense and ground and pound teams and there's nothing they can really do about it I think it does make sense sometimes and especially in the Lions case all right so getting back to jir Gibbs his 945 rushing yards has past season ranked 17th his 316 receiving yards ranked 16th his 52 receptions ranked ninth his 11 total touchdowns also ranked ninth his .96 fantasy points per opportunity ranked eth in the NFL that's his fantasy points either by reception or carry his 16.1 fantasy points per game ranked eighth which when you consider he didn't really do much of anything before week seven is incredibly impressive his run block rating of 54 was seventh in the NFL so his o line admittedly did a fantastic job of getting him in advantageous situations as well as offensive coordinator Ben Johnson his 3.52 yards created per touch ranked 22nd so not the best he didn't necessarily create as much on his own but he was very good with his vision and he took what was given to him extremely well when you look at his true yards per carry of 4.8 that ranked seventh his 5.4 yards per touch ranked eighth his 23.9% Juke rate ranked nth his 56 total evad tackles ranked 13th his 8.2 Breakaway run rate which is runs of 15 plus yards was second and is 15 Breakaway runs in total ranked third getting back to the true yards per carry that takes away excessively long gains to make it so it's a measure of your consistency of getting positive yards so first of all he was consistently getting positive yards but then he was also extremely explosive having the second highest Breakaway run rate so this guy is a very good running back in a fantastic situation so I figured out the 5year averages to be in rb1 finishes 1 through 12 in fantasy in terms of carries targets total touchdowns fantasy points in a full PPR setting and fantasy points in a half PPR setting so 2019 through 2023 is represented on the top half of that chart and and then the bottom is the average of all of those 5 years combined so in general over the past five seasons an rb1 needs to have 244 carries 63 targets 1514 total yards 12 touchdowns 275.50 point4 half PPR points let's see how jir Gibbs finished all right so once again the 5year averages to be an rb1 in general you need 244 carries 63 targets 1514 total yards 12.2 touchdowns 275.50 point4 half PPR points when we look at jir Gibbs finishes his 945 rushing yards and 316 receiving yards equaled 1261 total yards so a little bit lower than the average of 1514 necessary he did have 52 receptions which was ninth in the NFL though his 11 total touchdowns did fall about one short of the average of 12 is one 182 carries did fall short of the 244.00 average now what's important to remember here is essentially the first half of the Season he didn't do anything and really wasn't given that much work and then as soon as week seven he went off in the second half of the Season he won many many weeks for us in fantasy football and I was curious if we took his weeks 7 through 18 fantasy points figured out the per game averages divided by 11 and multiplied by 17 to get his 17 game Pace if we if his stats from the second half of the Season would have been the entire season what could we have really expected from him well once I did that he would have had 187 carries yes that would have fallen short of the 244 on average his 82 targets though would have well exceeded the 63.4 his 1184 total yards would have fallen short of the 151 14.8 for sure however he was on Pace for one touchdown a game so he would have finished with 17 as opposed to 12 and then when you think about all of these factors combined in a full PPR he would have gone for 314 total points well the average to be an rb1 in general was would have easily exceeded the 250 point4 but then I was also curious if the second half of the Season would have been essentially the entire season where would he have finished well After figuring it out he would have been the rb2 and a fullo PPR although a little bit behind mcaffrey for sure and then he would have been the rb3 and a half PPR in 2023 and that's without obviously extrapolating other players 17 game Paces some also missed a little bit of time but what that shows me is that with especially maccaffrey getting older he's probably not going to be the same running back and yes Bree Hall and bjon Robinson are in much more advantageous situations this season what that tells me is that if he's able to have a full season of what his second half of the season was like from this past year he absolutely is a legitimate threat to be the rb1 especially if David Montgomery misses anytime because as we saw this past season in weeks seven and eight specifically he was used as a full bcow back this guy is absolutely scary in the open field he has great vision amazing agility to cut all the way across the field he has great vision to let his blocks develop and find the holes he's blazing fast I'm really shocked he didn't have a bunch of 50- yard touchdowns it may be that he's ultimately more quick than fast but he did have a 436 40 yard dash so this guy is still really really fast really we can expect wonderful things from him this next season and in the future this team is going to be fantastic it's going to be one of the most high-scoring offenses in football and this guy is absolutely capable of being the rb1 well there you have it if you extrapolate out his week's 7 through 18 finish over the course of an entire season he would have finished as the rb2 in a full point PPR and the rb3 and a half Point PPR what do you think do you think that he has rb1 overall upside do you disagree with that let me know Below in the comment section and another thing I'm curious about where would you have him in redraft leagues and Dynasty leagues we think that he's going to be back for week one so he's probably not going to miss any time that would have been a worry theoretically but with him probably being back for week one and then like likely being healthy unless obviously he gets injured but we we can't predict injuries where would you have him in redraft in Dynasty leagues I'm curious please let me know Below in the comment section another thing if you like videos like these and want to see more of them please like And subscribe it lets me know that you want to see more content like this with that being said I'm the fantasy football strategist thank you and have a good day [Music]