Meteorologist Kim Castro's forecast: Houston weather and a look at the tropics

Happy Wednesday. Houston, I'm your K A 11 meteorologist, Kim Castro. And this is an extended look. A more detailed look at the weather forecast locally. This week, I think we're gonna have a wet pattern that picks up again on our Thursday for this afternoon, fewer storms. So most of us should see a little less of the slick commute. Although some areas will have some isolated downpours that impact how slowly you travel home. Now, with the rain chances increasing those temperatures are gonna stay nice and tapered. So, average for this time of year is 94 degrees. I think those temperatures for the most part will be in the eighties. We could squeeze in a couple of low nineties here and there and it's all because of the rain cooled air. So the lesser chance for today, 40%. But then we double that rain chance as we had into Thursday and notice the rain chances stay high Friday, Saturday and Sunday, which is Labor Day weekend. So all in all with all this rain accumulating throughout the weekend and even into next week, the start of next week looks wet too. We could wind up with anywhere between 2 to 6, maybe eight inches of rainfall closer to the coastline. Notice the further north you go, the, the less of the accumulation will be. And that's because we're funneling in all this energy from the gulf. So we're gonna have gulf disturbances that push in the moisture from our coastal counties and it tries to work its way inland. Notice it starts to fizzle out the closer to Walker County, for example, that you go. So Huntsville Conroe, I don't think you're gonna get that much of rain accumulating. However, Harris County have a good chunk of it pushing into the Gulf freeway chambers, County, Liberty, you could see some significant rain with that in mind, there could be a couple of areas that see some issues whether that be ponding or even some localized street flooding. You know, the neighborhoods, you know, the routes that typically give you issues when we have repeated rounds of rain. Just be a little bit on alert for that as you travel this weekend flood risk today, there is none. Even tomorrow. It's the lowest threat. It's a marginal risk and notice it's going to be for the gateway of that moisture. So mainly our coastal counties, this does stretch into Harris County. So keep that in mind if you live along at the southeast side, Friday, that flood risk expands a little bit more. So now includes almost all of Liberty County. It includes almost all of Harris County, Fort Bend, Matagorda, Brazoria Galveston Chambers. So Labor Day Weekend because it is gonna be a soggy one. Those temperatures aren't going to be as hot as they typically would be for Labor Day Weekend. So Saturday's high temperature 91 degrees Sunday. We're gonna be in the eighties and that's gonna carry over into your Monday to eighties. Six degrees is the high temperature for your Labor Day, Monday. But again, we try to go to the beach on Labor Day. We try to go to the bay if you are traveling and there are those heavy downpours, uh just give yourself extra time to get to where you're going. So you're not rushing our by our forecast for today. Today is the least wet day that we have the seven day forecast. It looks like this. We saw plenty of cloud cover out there. So I don't think the temperatures are going to shoot up too, too high, but 91 that's gonna be our high. We do make into the nineties today at four o'clock, an isolated chance for a shower. I think the highest likelihood is gonna be between three and five. So let's take you through future track here. You'll notice the showers are gonna favor the I 10 Corridor and pushing towards the coastline. So if you work downtown, you could see a soaking downpour by three, maybe four. If you commute back home to Katie or maybe you'll work in the Energy Corridor. I think that's when you're gonna see some showers too. Sugarland, Richmond, I'll campo, you'll notice you're kind of lit up with the highest likelihood of seeing shower activity. And then by the time most of us are, um, leaving work. Unless you leave earlier than five. I think you should be ok in Harris County because there's not much coming in behind those isolated downpours. Now Thursday will ramp up the rain, chance even earlier. Look at that time, stamp 330 in the morning and we're already seeing some big bull's eye downpour rain over Harris County. Now, this isn't just rain. We've seen a couple of stronger storms throughout the start of the work week. So this comes with gusty wind, this comes with frequent lightning and if there's thunder, which means those lightning strikes are coming down to the ground, you need to go inside. You need to at least wait it out for 30 minutes or so. We've also seen a couple of isolated storms that were showing a little bit of hail throughout the week. I think most of that melts before reaching the ground, but just something to keep in mind. These aren't just rain showers out there, they're charged and you'll notice as we head into Thursday, why did I hang up the rain? Chance? Well, because there's going to be some upper level support. So we've got this feature, this coastal, uh, low, that's gonna wanna organize the shower activity better and that's gonna hang around. So that's a snapshot at 1030 on your Thursday, it hangs around for Friday through Saturday and even into Sunday. So that's why the pattern is going to be turning a little bit more wet. In fact, the bull's eye area for above average rainfall is right over the state of Texas. Notice the highest likelihood is gonna be for West Texas, but Houston is highlighted for the likelihood of seeing above average rain through September 7th. What will that do to temperatures? Something very nice? The above average temperatures are gonna be on the west side. So the Pacific North plus for the most part is gonna see the worst of the heat of Montana, Idaho. Uh Here, locally we're pretty average, maybe a little bit warmer than normal for the coastal counties just because of all that humidity. Uh But for the most part, it'll be a nice stretch for the start of the month of September. But do you know what September also is? That's when hurricane season peaks. So peak of hurricane season is September 10th. So let's have a check at the tropics. The Atlantic has been quiet for a couple of weeks but now there are two areas that have been flagged by the National Hurricane Center with a potential uh development zone. So first, let's start with the 10% here. Notice. Oh, it's such a small little smidge. I think they're going to probably remove that soon. This is of concern to us and I'll tell you why. Uh, it's moving. Well, first of all, it's very far north. Secondly, it's moving towards the north northeast. So it's moving away from us. That's not gonna be something that we monitor locally. This batch of storms right there has a 20% chance of development here in this hatched area. Now, what happens beyond that is gonna be something of interest for us because typically, you know, storm systems that travel through, uh the lesser Antilles, the Windward Islands, they could push into the Caribbean and then they could advance from there. So that's gonna be one that we monitor in the long term. It's not moving very quickly. It's moving 10 to 15 miles an hour towards the north northwest. But because it is moving in that westerly direction, um, we gotta just keep an eye on it. So watching the forecast at least once a day development is gonna be slow though. So we'll have some time to keep an eye on it. Local 70 forecast looks like this average for this time of year. Like we talked about 94 degrees. So those temperatures are well below average. Our only 90 degree day is today. And then from here on out this temperatures in the mid to upper eighties, even through Labor Day, Monday, those rain chances are high. So keep those umbrellas handy.