so here is the uh 500m briefing on uh newly defined potential tropical Cyclone 6 uh Hurricane Center uses this naming convention before the storm has really developed into a true depression or tropical storm but is expected to so that's the situation we're in now uh this system is expected to become tropical storm Francine in the next day or two so uh key points we have this low pressure system more of a trough in the southwest Gulf right now there's thunderstorms ongoing down there uh there has been hurricane hunter aircraft in the system today and also satellite uh retrieval of winds and they're not seeing a closed circulation yet more of a wind shift trough axis so it is not yet a tropical storm uh but it is forecast to become one in the next day or two right now labeled as a pre- tropical cyclone number six for now the impacts for Southeast Texas will really depend on the track a track close to the coast or even a landfall uh in our coastal areas uh would mean Heavy Rain flash flooding strong winds at least to Tropical Storm intensity possibly even hurricane force and we would have significant surge in that scenario a track farther east would keep this system offshore and our impacts would be much more manageable still some uh heavy rain at the coast uh maybe some minor coastal flooding some high surf uh but in this second scenario Louisiana would have the greater severe impacts it's still too soon to be confident which of these would take place because we don't have a well-defined center yet uh once we do have that we should we can have more confidence in the forecast track here's a look at uh the hurricane Center's forecast these are issued once we have a pre- tropical cyclone and uh you can see the forecast cone does include our Coastline uh what does that mean it means about two-thirds of the time the center will track within that eror cone so you can see a left of center track would actually bring it into our Coastline and we would have a a landfall of perhaps a hurricane you know definitely a tropical storm possibly even a hurricane in that case if it were to track more along the center or to the right hand side of the cone that would keep that system uh to our East offshore and our impacts as I said would be more manageable uh but in that case Louisiana uh would get a Direct Hit just a quick look at the satellite view uh a lot of Fairly disorganized a lot of thunderstorm activity out there including in the southwest Gulf uh but no well- defined satellite signature there of a tropical Cyclone having formed here's a look at the wind probabilities with the um most likely arrival time of tropical storm Forest winds overlaid and so I want to point out there is really along our entire Coastline we're looking at Point probabilities of about 40 to 50% of reaching tropical storm force winds over this uh time period so really given the uncertainty in the track could be anywhere along the coast uh and then greater chances offshore notice also the time labeling there that is telling us that the most likely arrival time of tropical storm force winds is Tuesday night sort of late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning from Southwest to Northeast so we're not that far away one thing I want to mention uh there are watches being raised uh for the Mexican Coast uh we would likely see uh perhaps some watches in South Texas uh tonight and then any watches for our area probably tomorrow morning so we're not really too far away from having watches issued potentially for portions of our Coastline and then the other thing I want to point out here is as you go further Inland those chances drop off pretty rapidly so uh really our greatest threat for high winds is going to be at the coast and across the Marine areas here's a look at the Heavy Rain potential uh we talked about the winds let's talk about the rain and the flood potential that's what these Maps indicate where are the greatest areas of uh potential for flash flooding and in this case we have a level two risk at the coast and then a level one another uh a little ways Inland uh but notice the Inland counties if y all are dialing in from an inland County that's not shaded here uh your chances of impacts in terms of winds and rainfall from this event are are much less uh conversely the coastal areas have had so much rain already in the last couple weeks U seems to be most likely if we do get heavy rain uh that we would get it in those Coastal counties again I did touch on this earlier the rainfall also very dependent on track so if this track were to shift East a bit more that would keep the heaviest rain offshore so that's really our best case scenario our worst case scenario would be more of a left shift in the track which would bring the center right in it would give us the flooding rains the high wind and the the life-threatening surge Marine impacts we'll have more quantitative values listed here um but as I showed you the forecast cone uh you know the most likely track is across our Coastal Waters and and uh with a new forecast for it to be perhaps a hurricane as early as Wednesday uh we're expecting very significant impacts uh in that Tuesday night and Wednesday time frame uh even into Wednesday night depending on the speed of the system so uh just be aware of that hurricane force winds very high seas very difficult Marine conditions in that Tuesday night uh say into Wednesday night time frame more detailed forecasts uh to to follow uh tomorrow morning so just to sum up as we said we've got an organizing system in the southwest Gulf but no well-defined Center yet uh until we have that well defined Center we don't have a lot of confidence in the forecast track uh we see a lot of models out there uh shifting this way and that and uh once we have a well-defined center we'll feel better about uh interpreting those track models not yet a tropical storm but forecast to become one in the next day or two in fact could could even become a hurricane uh by the time we get to Wednesday impacts for Southeast Texas highly dependent on that track track close to the coast or a landfall in our area as I said Heavy Rain flash flooding uh strong winds even up to Hurricane force with a landfall and a life-threatening surge a track further east uh much less in all those ways less wind less rain and uh more minor coastal flooding unfortunately too soon to be confident which of these will take place we'll try to uh gain uh we should have more confidence once we have a defined Center uh hopefully we'll within 24 hours we'll be able to uh to raise that confidence level in terms of where this system will go and whether it will be offshore or close to land or even coming in uh making landfall in our area