BREAKING: Tropical Storm Ernesto Forms In The Caribbean

tropical storm Ernesto has formed just east of the leeward islands and we saw on satellite all day today and the aircraft data were suggesting the center circulation was becoming better defined and it has met enough of those criteria for the Hurricane Center to designate this a tropical storm now one of the numbers that is pretty impressive is the West Northwest motion at 28 mil an hour and that's one of the reasons why it's probably not going to intensify really rapidly as it moves over the Eastern Caribbean fast Moving Systems don't usually rapid rapidly intensify uh but we've had enough measurements from the aircraft to bring the winds up to 40 m hour so we've got our tropical storm we already had the warnings up and none of those have changed and it's going to be later tonight when the Winds of tropical storm Forest probably first arriving here in the leeward islands and then tomorrow in the Virgin Islands tomorrow tomorrow night into Puerto Rico and the rain and the flooding and the mudslides will also be a big concern so this definitely has that look the tropical wave has been crossing the entire uh Tropical Atlantic since last week tapping into that way warmer than average water and the upper level pattern is such that this trough that's over the Eastern us is going to turn it to the north but not until it passes Puerto Rico and in the meantime uh you've got relatively weak winds here pretty decent upper level outflow over the top of the this and now you can see how the bad weather starting to arrive here in the leeward islands and if we look a little more closely you can see where the center of circulation is taking shape right about in here take a little bit closer look and you can see where the center circulation has really started to take shape right in there and that's oh about 30 mil north of the track of where the previously assumed Center was and so uh it's been relocated a little bit farther to the north and so in the short term that means the track be a little bit farther to the right and the hurricane Hunters have been finding Winds of right near tropical storm Force throughout this entire Mission here's the new track this is overnight tonight and then tomorrow afternoon and then tomorrow night into early Wednesday morning crossing the Virgin Island of PTO Rico but even after it gets north of there Wednesday and Thursday some trailing rain bands could still be uh plaguing this area so rain induced floods and mudslides going to be a big problem uh especially in the mountainous terrain a place like Puerto Rico so here's the complete new track not a whole lot of changes and again Bermuda could be in line possibly for a major hurricane Alex