Historian who predicted 9 of last 10 presidential elections says Harris will win

CAMPAIGN TRAIL IN NEW YORK TODAY TALKING TO REPUBLICAN DONORS ABOUT HIS ECONOMIC PROPOSALS. WHILE VICE PRESIDENT KAMALA HARRIS ARRIVED IN PITTSBURGH FOR A WEEKEND FILLED WITH DEBATE PREP. FOR MORE ON THE RACE TO THE WHITE HOUSE I WANT TO BRING IN A FRIEND TO TOP STORY, ALAN LICHTMAN. HE'S AN AUTHOR. HIS STORY, AND A DISTINGUISHED PROFESSOR OF HISTORY AT AMERICAN UNIVERSITY. HIS BIGGEST CLAIM TO FAME, CORRECTLY REDACTING PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS. HE HAS BEEN DUBBED THE NOSTRADAMUS OF ELECTIONS AND HAS A NEARLY PERFECT TRACK RECORD SINCE 1984 HE HAS CORRECTLY PROTECTED THE PAST NINE OUT OF 10 U.S. PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS. AND IF YOU'RE WONDERING WHAT HE GOT WRONG, WELL, IT'S CALLED LOCATED. THAT WAS BECAUSE IT WAS 2000 WHEN HE PICKED AL GORE BUT WE KNOW THAT ENDED UP AT THE SUPREME COURT AND GEORGE W. BUSH WON. HE WAS ONE OF THE FEW TO ACCURATELY PREDICT TRUMP'S VICTORY IN 2016. HOW DOES HE DO IT? HE DOESN'T LISTEN TO POSTWAR POLITICAL PUNDITS. HE FOLLOWS HIS OWN LIST OF 13 TRUE OR FALSE QUESTIONS, WHICH HE DEVELOPED IN 1981, GET THIS, WITH A GEOPHYSICIST FRIEND, VLADIMIR BARACK. HERE ARE THE 13 KEYS THAT HE USES. EVERYTHING FROM THE ECONOMY AND POLICY CHANGE TO SCANDALS AND CHARISMA. IT MAY SEEM LIKE A LOT BUT HE JOINS US NOW TO EXPLAIN IT ALL. ALAN, OUR VIEWERS HERE AT TOP STORY LOVE POLITICS. WE ARE GOING TO BREAK THIS DOWN. FIRST, LET'S GET TO THE HEADLINE. LET ME STOP TALKING. COULD YOU THINK WILL WIN THE 2024 ELECTION? >> IS NOT WHAT I THINK, IT'S WHAT THE SYSTEM TO THE WHITE HOUSE INDICATES. ACCORDING TO THE KEYS TO THE WHITE HOUSE WE ARE GOING TO HAVE AN UNPRECEDENTED PRESIDENT. THE KEYS PREDICT THAT KAMALA HARRIS WILL BECOME THE FIRST WOMAN PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES. >> I WANT YOU TO WALK OUR VIEWERS THROUGH LIKE THEY ARE YOUR STUDENTS IN CLASS. WALK US THROUGH THE SYSTEM. LET'S START WITH THE FIRST POINT HERE, STARTING WITH THE MIDTERM GAINS. >> YES. THE SYSTEM IS ALL BASED ON THE STRENGTH AND PERFORMANCE OF THE WHITE HOUSE PARTY. THE WAY IT WORKS, IF SIX OF THE 13 INDICATORS, WHICH AS YOU SAID ARE VERY WIDE GO AGAINST THE WHITE HOUSE PARTY THEY ARE PREDICTED LOSERS. OTHERWISE, THEY ARE PREDICTED WINNERS. SO SIX FALSE IS AND THE WAY HOUSE PARTY LOSES. FEWER THAN SIX, THEY WIN. THE FIRST KEY IS THE MANDATE KEY BASED ON MIDTERM U.S. HOUSE ELECTIONS. THAT ONE IS FALSE BECAUSE THE DEMOCRATS LOST SEATS IN 2022. >> OKAY. NEXT UP IS INCUMBENCY. WHAT HAPPENS THERE? >> THAT'S A BIG ONE. OF COURSE, BY BIDEN STEPPING DOWN, THEY LOSE THE INCUMBENCY KEY. HARRIS IS THE VICE PRESIDENT, NOT THE PRESIDENT. SO THAT ONE IS ALSO FALSE. TWO DOWN. >> PRIMARY CONTEST. WHAT HAPPENED HERE? >> THIS WAS THE BIG THING THAT I WAS ARGUING THAT THE DEMOCRATS WERE HEADING INTO DISASTER BY NOT JUST HAVING BIDEN STEP DOWN AND LOSING INCUMBENCY, BUT HAVING A BIG PARTY BRAWL AND LOSING THE CONTEST KEY. BUT SOMEHOW THEY GREW A SPINE AND A BRAIN AND UNITED BEHIND HARRIS. THAT KEY IS TRUE. >> THIRD-PARTY CHALLENGER. WE'VE HAD RFK JR., WE NO LONGER HAVE HIM. WHAT'S THE EFFECT? >> A THIRD PARTY ALMOST ALWAYS COUNTS AGAINST THE WAY HOUSE PARTY. SO THE FIZZLE OF RFK JR. MEANS KEY NUMBER FOUR, THIRD-PARTY IS TRUE. >> SHORT-TERM ECONOMY? STRONG? >> WE MEASURE IT Y WHETHER OR NOT THERE IS A RECESSION IN THE ELECTION YEAR, NOT BY POLLS ON PUBLIC SENTIMENT. AND CLEARLY, THE ECONOMY HAS HAD A SOFT LANDING. NO RECESSION. THERE'S NOT GOING TO BE ONE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF MONTHS. THAT KEY IS TRUE. >> THE CLOCK IS TICKING AND THERE'S ECONOMIC INDICATORS THAT ARE COMING IN BEFORE ELECTION DATE. WHAT ABOUT LONG-TERM ECONOMY? >> THAT'S ALSO VERY OBJECTIVE STATISTICALLY. IT ASKS WHETHER THE PER CAPITA GROWTH IN THE CURRENT TERM IS AT LEAST EQUAL OR GREATER THAN THE AVERAGE OF THE PREVIOUS TWO TERMS AND GROWTH UNDER BIDEN, BELIEVE IT OR NOT, HAS BEEN MORE THAN DOUBLED THE AVERAGE. SO THAT KEY IS TRUE. >> HAS THERE BEEN ANY MAJOR POLICY CHANGES? THIS IS NUMBER EIGHT. >> THERE CERTAINLY HAVE. NIGHT AND DAY BETWEEN TRUMP AND BIDEN. HIS INFRASTRUCTURE BILL, HIS STIMULUS BILL, HIS EXECUTIVE ORDERS, HIS BIG INFLATION IN CLIMATE CHANGE BILL, HIS REJOINING THE PARIS ACCORDS ON CLIMATE CHANGE. BIG DIFFERENCE . THAT KEY IS TRUE. >> BUT BRIEFLY, EVEN THOUGH PEOPLE MAY NOT AGREE OF THOSE CHANGES, YOU'RE SAYING THAT THESE CHANGES HAVE HAPPENED. >> THAT'S RIGHT. THE KEY SIMPLY SAYS, MAJOR CHANGE. IT DOESN'T TRY TO GAUGE WHERE THE PUBLIC STANDS IN THAT. WHICH, OF COURSE, IS VERY, VERY FICKLE. >> THIS NEXT ONE, SOCIAL UNREST. GOING INTO 2020 YOU HAD THE GEORGE FLOYD PROTESTS, YOU HAD PANDEMIC PROTESTS. TALK TO US ABOUT THIS ONE. >> I THINK THE HARRIS SWITCH HAS HAD A POSITIVE EFFECT BECAUSE BIDEN IS NO LONGER FRONT AND CENTER AND IT SEEMS TO HAVE DAMPENED PROTESTS. WE SEE NOTHING LIKE THE MASSIVE SUSTAINED SOCIAL NREST LIKE WE HAD IN THE 60s THAT THREATENED SOCIAL STABILITY. THAT KEY IS TRUE. >> WHAT ABOUT THE PROTESTS AT COLLEGE CAMPUSES ACROSS THE COUNTRY OVER THE WAR IN GAZA? >> AS I SAID, THEY ARE NOT MASSIVE, THEY ARE NOT SUSTAINED AND THEY HAVEN'T BEEN ANYWHERE NEAR SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO STRAIGHTEN -- THREATEN THE STABILITY. >> WHITE HOUSE SCANDAL. >> MY FAVORITE KEY, THE SCANDAL KEY. THE REPUBLICANS ARE WELL AWARE OF THIS KEY. THEY HAVE BEEN TRYING TO PIN A SCANDAL ON BIDEN FOR FOUR YEARS AND THEY HAVE COME UP EMPTY. THE SMOKING GUN WITNESS, MR. SMIRNOV, WAS ARRESTED BY THE FBI FOR LYING AND SPREADING RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA. HUNTER BIDEN'S PROBLEMS DON'T COUNT. >> EVEN THOUGH HE JUST PLEADED GUILTY AND WAS CONVICTED IN THE OTHER CASE? >> MAKES NO DIFFERENCE. IF YOU READ THE DEFINITION OF THE KEYS IT SAYS IT HAS TO IMPLICATE THE PRESIDENT HIMSELF AND THERE HAS TO BE AT LEAST SOME BIPARTISAN RECOGNITION. BILLY CARTER DIDN'T COUNT AGAINST JIMMY AND HUNTER DOESN'T COUNT AGAINST OF JOE. >> INCOME AND CHARISMA. >> YEAH. THAT ONE IS FALSE. IT'S A VERY HIGH THRESHOLD. YOU HAVE TO BE ONE OF THOSE ONCE N A GENERATION BROADLY INSPIRATIONAL CANDIDATES WHO IS TRANSFORMATIONAL, LIKE FRANKLIN ROOSEVELT OR REAGAN. WHATEVER YOU MAY THINK OF HARRIS , SHE DOES NOT FALL INTO THAT CATEGORY. SO THAT KEY IS FALSE. THAT'S THE THIRD NEGATIVE KEY. >> CHALLENGER CHARISMA NOW. WHAT HAPPENED HERE WITH TRUMP? >> TRUMP IS A GREAT SHOWMAN. BUT REMEMBER, THE DEFINITION OF THE KEY. YOU HAVE TO BE BROADLY APPEALING AND TRUMP APPEALS TO A NARROW BASE. HE'S NOT BROADLY APPEALING LIKE REAGAN OR FDR. HIS APPROVAL RATING IN FOUR YEARS AS PRESIDENT AVERAGED 41%. HISTORICALLY, ONE OF THE LOWEST LEVELS WE HAVE EVER SEEN. HE LOST TWO ELECTIONS BY A COMBINED 10 MILLION POPULAR VOTES. REAGAN AND FDR WON ELECTIONS BY LANDSLIDES. WHATEVER YOU MAY THINK OF HIM HE DOESN'T FIT THE CRITERIA. AND I CAN'T EMPHASIZE THIS TOO MUCH. IF YOU WANT TO DEVELOP YOUR OWN SYSTEM BASED ON SOMETHING DIFFERENT, GO RIGHT AHEAD. BUT IF YOU ARE GOING TO USE THE KEYS YOU HAVE TO STICK TO HOW THE KEYS ARE DEFINED. >> WHAT ABOUT, HAS THE WHITE HOUSE HAD A MAJOR FOREIGN- POLICY FAIL? >> THESE ARE THE TWO MOST DIFFICULT KEYS. THE FORMS POLICY FAILURE AND THE FOREIGN-POLICY SUCCESS. WE HAVE TWO. THEY ARE VERY, VERY FLUID. I SPLIT THE TWO FOREIGN-POLICY KEYS. I SAY, GAZA IS A TRAGEDY, IT'S A CATASTROPHE WITH NO END IN SIGHT. WE DON'T HAVE BOOTS ON THE GROUND BUT WE ARE COMMITTED TO WHAT GOES ON THERE. THAT'S A FAILURE. AND I COUNT WHAT BIDEN DID TO STOP PRUDEN FROM QUICKLY CONQUERING UKRAINE. IT WAS BIDEN AND BIDEN ALONE WHO PUT TOGETHER THE COALITION OF THE WEST THAT STOPPED PRUDEN AND HAS KEPT THEM AT BAY FOR TWO AND HALF YEARS. IF HE HAD QUICKLY CONQUERED UKRAINE HE WOULD HAVE GONE ON TO THREATEN OUR NATIVE ALLIES. I THINK I WILL GO DOWN AS A HISTORIC A COMPETENT. LOOK, OR'S ARE FLUID. THE TWO KEYS COULD FLIP NEGATIVE. BUT THAT STILL ONLY FIVE KEYS DOWN. IT WOULD TAKE SIX TO PREDICT THAT DONALD TRUMP WOULD REGAIN THE WAY HOUSE AND HARRIS WOULD LOSE. >> I GOT TO TELL YOU, IT'S PRETTY BRAVE. YOU HAVE BEEN RIGHT SO, SO MANY TIMES. YOU ARE COMING OUT 60 DAYS BEFORE THE ELECTION. WHAT CONVINCES YOU THAT NOTHING IN THE NEXT 60 DAYS COULD CHANGE YOUR CALCULATION OR COULD SOMETHING CHANGE IT? >> YOU KNOW, THE NOTION OF AN OCTOBER SURPRISE IS A MYTH. I HAVE ALWAYS PREDICTED ELECTION RESULTS FOR 40 YEARS AND NO OCTOBER SURPRISE HAS EVER CHANGED WHAT I HAVE PREDICTED BECAUSE THE KEYS TO THE WHITE HOUSE ARE THE BIG PICTURE. >> BUT ALAN, NOT INTERRUPT YOU, I KNOW YOU ARE THE GURU ON THIS. I DON'T MEAN TO INTERRUPT YOU BUT HAVE YOU EVER SEEN AN ELECTION LIKE THIS? YOU HAVE A FORMER INCUMBENT WHO WAS INDICTED, CONVICTED. YOU HAVE A GUY AT THE TOP OF THE TICKET WHO JUST HAD A DEBATE, TERRIBLE DEBATE. THE PRESIDENT HAD TO LEAVE THE TICKET. HAVE YOU EVER SEEN ANYTHING LIKE THIS? I JUST WONDER ABOUT THAT. THIS ELECTION HAS TAKEN SO MANY TWISTS AND TURNS. HOW DO YOU FEEL SO CONFIDENT? >> GREAT QUESTION. FIRST OF ALL, ONE OF MY FAVORITE COMEDIANS IS THE LATE, GREAT -- WHOSE CHARACTER WAS FAMOUS FOR SAYING, THERE'S ALWAYS SOMETHING. AND EVERY FOUR YEARS SOMEONE SAYS, THIS ELECTION IS UNIQUE YOU HAVE TO CHANGE YOUR KEYS. WE HAVE AN AFRICAN-AMERICAN RUNNING. NEVER HAD THAT BEFORE AMERICA IS NOT READY. WE HAVE A WOMAN RUNNING. WE HAVE SOCIAL MEDIA. YOU CAN'T CHANGE KEYS ON THE FLY. THAT'S A RECIPE FOR ERROR. PLUS, THE KEYS ARE VERY ROBUST. DEVELOPMENTALLY, THEY GO BACK TO THE HORSE AND BUGGY DAYS OF POLITICS IN 1860. FINALLY, LET ME SAY, MY KEYS ARE BASED ON HISTORY. I'M NOT SPEAKER MIKE JOHNSON WHO THINGS THE ALMIGHTY TALKS TO HIM. THE PATTERNS OF HISTORY COULD BE BROKEN. BUT THE PROBLEM IS YOU NEVER KNOW IN ADVANCE. YOU ONLY KNOW AFTERWARDS. THAT IS WHY I ALWAYS STICK TO THE KEYS. COULD I BE WRONG? OF COURSE. EVERY FOUR YEARS, FOR 40 YEARS, I CAN'T TELL YOU HOW NERVOUS THIS MAKES ME. >> IT'S GOT TO BE A LITTLE FUN TOO. THANK YOU FOR TEACHING US YOUR KEYS. WE WILL SEE IF THEY ARE RIGHT AND WE WOULD LOVE TO TALK TO AFTER THE ELECTION. >> CAN I SAY ONE MORE THING? >> 04. >> IF YOU WANT TO FOLLOW THE KEYS AND FOLLOW MY THINKING AS WE HIT THE ELECTION CHECK OUT MY LIVE SHOW EVERY TUESDAY AND THURSDAY AT 9:00 P.M. EASTER