VLAD REACTS: Kara-Murza on post-Putin Russia

hello beautiful Community let's do a quick uh Vlad reacts Episode by reacting to thoughts on the post Putin Russia from the Russian oppositional figure Vladimir karura so let's listen to Vladimir um I'm going to do it from bed you're going to do it from wherever you are but um we're going to try to get some value out of this so let's go uh it's very important for the Free World for the leaders of Western democracies to prepare on their side as well because once things really do change in Russia and once uh you know we do start this work on transitional Justice on this transition from dictatorship to democracy inside of Russia it is very important that the Free World stands ready to help reintegrate that new Democratic post Putin Russia back into the Civilized world back into the rule-based international order back into the big Europe that we all want to see you know if we still believe in that goal of a Europe whole free and at peace a goal was expressed you know famously uh 35 years ago by an American president speaking in West Germany as you remember if we still believe in the goal of a Europe whole free and at peace that goal will only be possible when Russia which is the largest country in Europe also becomes peaceful and Democratic a Europe whole free and and peace will only be possible with a peaceful and Democratic Russia as a part of it and this is a road map that we need to stop in today okay beautiful Community let us try to analyze this and I apologize um because of physical symptoms I may have some slips now the first thing to say about Vladimir karura is that in many ways he is as much a moral as he's a political agent so when he went to prison in Russia he didn't go to prison as part of a political project he was elaborating he went to prison largely because he got picked up and he took a stance against an abor regime whereas Mr nal's tragic imprisonment was much more a part of Mr nal's political project Mr nal's imprisonment for Nal was meant to get him from A to B politically it was a deeply political process for him for Mr K karura it was more of a moral stance that got him there um the imprisonment itself wasn't for him uh a political project one thing to say the second thing to say is that when you're talking about Russian opposition Figures it's important to understand which ones are speaking to a Russian audience and which ones don't or which ones no longer do and not get confused about that so A Very classic example of somebody who speaks to a western audience without much of his audience understanding that that's what he does is Gary Gasparov Gary is a pro-democracy and anti-putin activist in the west he's speaking to you don't make the mistake that he's speaking to Russians um he is to some extent but you're his main audience and within the Russian opposition you got to keep making that distinction and so on the basis of it we would say that while Vladimir karur Zak has been enormously politically influential and engaged he has more of a western than the Russian audience in my judgment and if you took him plunked him on the street in Russia his name recognition may not even be greater than his father's about whom none of you would have heard about his late father um died a few years ago and recent years was facilitating um Democratic and journalistic capacity Democratic and um anti-regime conversations so so that's Vladimir karura uh that's the context if you swap over to somebody like Ilia Yashin then you're going to be dealing with somebody who who who is very directly speaking to a a limited but a Russian audience that's less less obvious with Vladimir so that's second thing to say let me then say a third thing um never be gleeful and jump up and down in an infantilized way scoring points of somebody who's just been in jail on matters of principle who's just been in jail because he's opposed to the war and opposed to the Putin regime right so just because you think some things he says are silly there's no reason to jump up and down because that's a good way to embarrass yourself not him so with this context let's jump into a little bit of analysis and because I'm speaking to you from bed I'm just going to be completely personal um there is such a term as moral Charisma and I think it's a wonderful term it captures people whose distinctive loveliness is part of their moral is deeply tied to their moral sensibility and that's true of Vladimir karura Jr at the same time because I'm going to be just personal direct with you oh my God oh my God oh my God are we in 1989 or are we just a brilliant individual but we are speaking about politics apolitically there is a kind of almost sfic moral Purity in what Karai is saying that is detached from politics and oh my God so it's really the impression of listening to something childlike let's break this down number one what western order is Russia going to be joining a future Russia a Democrat and non-democratic Russia together and ande Russia what western order is it going to be joining the post 1989 order has broken down it's not there Putin didn't break it with the fullscale invasion of Ukraine he did the fullscale invasion of Ukraine because that order was broken and here it's very important that if we are critical of these remarks by by Vladimir we've got to be critical of ourselves too because we swim in the same bubble there is no post 1989 Global Order it has broken down we live in a complex world of Frenemies friends and enemies in certain respects all you have to do is just reflect on how far Russia is not isolated politically and economically across the globe and how much we ourselves in the west are refusing to isolate Russia a complex world of enemies that aren't enemies all the way down they enemies that are still able to cooperate in various respects they're sort of a world of enemy in certain respects without a prospect of a new stable Global Order emerging we have Democratic decline across the West we have us Retreat right what's so weird about all of um the upset about uh the United States not supporting Ukraine enough these are legitimate claims of course but what's weird about them is that um even despite that Us action in Ukraine is is kind of against the grain of US policy tendentiously which is to withdraw so as much as it's true that we're not supporting Ukraine we're not supporting Ukraine with a clear strategy our support for Ukraine is still um a sort of uh a Remnant from a way of going on on the international scene um that is part of the past rather than part of the future right so we have a dissolved Global Order that's still there but in segments and Remnants and ruins and the Very idea that you could even seriously talk about Russia joining that in 2035 or 2040 is absurd there's nothing to join that's a big problem for us in the west there's nothing to join and we can't overcome it unless we overcome our Democratic challenges at home because it's only if Western democracies are strong that we can elaborate something approaching a stable global system but we're not going to be able to do that because our democracies will continue to decline but we can stop the rate of decline by reflecting properly on how to do that we'll keep discussing that so that's the first thing there is no Global Order Vladimir for Russia to join number two what about this promise of a future Democratic Russia where is the politics in that I appreciate that that's a moral aspiration but I'm going to say something harsh it's not just a political but it is arguably actually a Remnant and this is not something that I absolutely consciously attribute to Vladmir but is it is a remnant of a certain kind of Russian imperialist tendency um to talk about the Civilized World joining the Civilized world because when you take away Imperial prejudices the point isn't just to take them away and we shouldn't exaggerate this about the Russian opposition they have taken them away to a good extent they've lot more work to do but when you take these prejudices away you're still under an imperialist Shadow if you haven't replaced them with anything constructive you see so you're still caught up in imperialism if you have put down Imperial ideas and Imperial prejudices but haven't replaced them with anything else except apolitical vacuities like joining the Civilized world and um celebrating Democratic virtue now don't laugh too hard this is what Ukraine's coming up with right this is a large part of Ukraine's justification to the world about what it is and why it should be supported so that's to say depoliticized vague siren songs about joining the Civilized World um which actually used to be effective in the first year of War now they do as much to undermine Ukraine as as as they do to help it and we too ourselves talk about civilizational clash between democracy and authoritarian regimes and as being on the side of democracy and on we go from that making nice slogans but the truth of the matter is that if you're going to make the case for democracy it's got to be political it can't be estatic it can't be based on moralization devoid of politics it can't just be based on algorithmically popular slogans so you want to talk about democracy in Russia Vladimir let's talk politics let's not talk principles otherwise we're going to sound like a cartoonish version of Francis fukayama in 1992 so I would accept that Russia's regime is out of sync with the population the regime is much more maniacally imperialist and much more obscurantist than the population I would accept that the regime has lost a younger generation and is trying to uh almost skip the younger generation and create a a future more fasis IED younger generation to keep it itself stable keep the regime stable accept all of that but where is the politics right so politics is about transformation it's about agency it's about who is going to do what how and when and it's about power right and I'm worried that there aren't any conversation of substance in among the Russian opposition about this what if you work C overnight and you notice the more politicized Russian opposition what would that look like they would immediately make cogent practical reformist programmatic proposals to not just different demographics in Russia but the different institutions in Russia they would address the interests of the security agencies they would address the interests of the army right they would tell these institutions what future they're proposing and just taking these positions enov itself will begin to have a politicizing effect um the risk of speaking in moral terms is that a future Russia should have no Army because it'll be peaceful and Democratic and all the countries around it will be peaceful and Democratic um you're not going to achieve any transformation like that um you also have to engage with Russia's non-insane security interests right what are Russia's security interests if you take away imperialist Mania speak to those right and use care for those concerned with those to uh compel different agencies in the countries in the country different institutions to take you seriously right with moral principle and high-spirited siren songs to the virtues of democracy you could speak to 6% of the Russian population maybe 10% so that's the second thing I would say um there's something seraphically apolitical about this invitation to entertain a democratic Russia seriously and there is a third point to make about the interdependence between European democracy and European security and what happens in Russia that Vladimir karura talks about how do we think about this well one response that's unconstructive is to pick as quite a few people on Twitter have done on K morar talking about Russia being big and say well that's evidence of an imperialist mindset Russia's big and powerful you're always going to have to deal with it that response is just a mirror and the worst mirror of the de politicization that karura may himself be engaging in so you don't want to throw yourself into the same pot you're trying to critique if you want to take that thought seriously you could run into the question of what is legitim self governance for people on the Russian territory and then you'd have to admit that it's up to them not up to you whether you're in Kazakhstan Canada or New Zealand so he called Russia big and here IO W in the Twitter Thread about it is the very deep politicized politics that is syncing the Russian opposition and is also syncing Western democracies they just express it in a more intense way than we do they're more extreme the second thing I would definitely not do also is fantasize about the magical Vanishing of Russia which ain't going to happen a lot of the content you're exposed to indulges in these fantasies and algorithms enormously reward them but the truth is there's no agency in these accounts there's no way to get to that fantasy outcome either Russia is there because nobody's going to march on Moscow and Russia retains its Integrity or it doesn't and if Russia loses his territorial Integrity we still have to deal with what's there that may mean dealing with wars Civil Wars epic Refugee currents and potentially uh rump Russia armed to the teeth with nuclear weapons and resentful of the West so however you cut it we're going to have to deal with Russia in one form or another and magical thinking that invites us to transcend that is a common form of depoliticization and so if we do that we just jump back into the same part we're trying to critique ideally you'd want to propose something for the ex Soviet space that comes out of the prevailing nature of the global Arrangements but the prevailing Global arrangements are themselves in Decline you see and so we have a problem the West has no strategy for a global order and you know no capacity to implement a strategy because of democratic weakness at home as a result it has no vision for the ex Soviet space as a result it has half a strategy for Ukraine and no strategy for Russia and no Russia policy really we're half at war with Russia we have no Russia policy we're not doing anything special to politicize the Russian space and given that we lack a strategy and that we're just making do the political priority ought to be help Ukraine first think about politicizing the Russian space second but there's no conflict between these two you can do both the Russian opposition don't have uh strategy they don't have a vision for the ex Soviet space they don't have a vision of a global order in fact they are just singing siren songs from 1989 largely it's a bit mean but we have to be brief with you know cural within certain truthful brackets and Ukraine has not proposed anything for the ex Soviet space Ukraine hasn't even taken proper steps to give a a vision of how the struggle of the Ukrainian people and the struggle of the belarussian people may be in some respects one struggle so there's an absence of regional security proposals there's an absence of strategy from all conceivable sides what we're left with is simply making do dealing with Russia by force or Not by force when Russia begins to make security assertions that we perceive as workable and reasonable which it can't do so long as this regime persists so I do think that karura has a point when he discusses the interdependence of our security and stuff happening on the Russian space but that point can't just be dressed up in Siren songs to the virtue of democracy it needs to go through all of the political knots that are there some of which we've just put on the table lots of love and thanks so much for being with me toen