Introduction [Music] hello and uh welcome to another episode of the markets at a gland series my name is rufas camo markets Analyst at FX so today we'll be talking about the top events that are currently happening in the markets uh with the focus on two data points that are very important and coming up later in the day that is during the New York session so one of the events will be the jolt job openings report and uh the second one will be the conference board consumer confidence survey so once we go through these two hopefully everyone will be able to trade from an informed perspective so once you join in can say high on the live comment section and these will confirm that everything is working just fine so let's get on with with it let's jump straight to the economic calendar so this is the Forex Factory economic calendar and as Economic Calendar as you can see uh today being Tuesday the 30th of July we haven't had much of data points that are big or impactful in the market so one of the key highlight data points uh was the uh cpia and GDP data uh from the Euro Zone uh of course we had the German CPI somehow I don't have the data updated yet yet so I'll try and refresh my calendar again so then GDP for various European countries including Spain Italy as well as Germany so yes it was mixed data for instance you can see the GDP for Spain was up 0.8% uh for Italy 0 0.2 uh for the entire Euro Zone down 0.1% so uh a lot of mixed data was happening and uh now as we head into the New York session there's quite a number of data points of course the most recently released data point is the K Shila composite 20 housing price index which came in at 6.8% a slight drop from the previous reading of 7.3% but also still significantly higher than the projected number which was 6.5% so housing price index month over month was uh didn't have much of a change in the last one month so remained the same uh with a 0.0% change despite having a 0.3% increase in the prior month so now the focus for the rest of the day will be on the conference board uh consumer confidence survey and the jol job openings so let's put some attention on the jol job openings which is a key indicator in the job market so it basically measures the number of job advertisements that were reported in the previous month so as you can see according to data uh that was released Job Openings Report in the previous month uh we had 8.14 million jobs being advertised and now we expecting this number to drop to 8.02 so while this may not seem like much of a change uh there's a key underlying Trend that has been happening and if you follow the overall trend then You' understand what has been happening with job openings in America so if I remove the fust this has been the outcome of data for the various months and uh as you can see since the peak that we saw about 11.5 uh million job openings in May 2022 that number has only been dropping over time so why did we have this record number of job openings so on one side nobody was hiring during the peak of covid so if you look at the May June 2020 uh a lot of companies were not hiring because there are lockdowns so these lockdowns affected a lot of companies but as things started to streamline company companies started retiring and this led to an increase in number of job openings which kept on going up until it pick here so since May 2022 this data point has only been moving downwards and now we are below a key Trend so what do I mean by this so if you look at the past 10 years and you look at the overall direction uh for the number of new jobs being advertised in the US you notice um this is from 2010 so it's 14 years the path has been following uh this line here so we would be expecting to be at thre somewhere around here at this moment however the number we are seeing is much lower and this is a red frag for the US Top Market remember for for an economy that is growing and making a strong recovery like the recover we saw after 2728 so around 2010 this is when we started seeing uh number of new job advertisements going up so if you go back to 2728 this is when we had the lowest number of new jobs created due to the economic crash that happened during that period so since then this has been just good good growth then covid a very strong recovery and now the trend has been shifting in downwards so whenever you see the trend shifting downwards is usually a red flag uh it happened in 207 so from 207 uh from a bullish momentum now moving downwards so then in 2020 and now we are seeing this happening again so it's a bad red frag because it tends to pred uh predate an in a recession period and the thir is closely watching this data point so what does it mean if the number of new job openings are going down so one it means that companies are not looking to expand their production so when companies are expanding their production and they are planning to produce more then they advertise more jobs for their factories transport services and so on so in that case it send uh sends a leading signal to the FED that this is the direction the economy is taking so in that case you might expect that if the number of new job openings is going down then the FED will be concerned about one key mandate that they hold which is to make sure that the US has full employment so now that we not expecting uh to see Full Employment in the near future in the US uh with unemployment rate jumping to 4.1% as per the previous reading now we might see the FED being Hasty in cutting interest rates so cutting interest rates is are basically negative for the dollar so we have been seeing the dollar Index weakening over time and if the job's job openings come lower than expected then in that case it should be negative for the dollar so on the other hand there is the surprise data that we saw last week with US GDP coming in stronger than expected so strong GDP is a historical data it's a lagging indicator but then it's it might Alo uh indicate that the US economy could be creating more jobs so in this case we could be seeing an increase in jobs job opening as well so if there's an increase in J job openings it means that the economy is now creating more jobs and as a result of that the FED could sit on its hands a little bit longer are waiting to see what happens with inflation which is a data point that has not hit the fed target of uh 2% so in this case uh it's a very simple binary decision if we see lower J job openings then it should imply a weer dollar and the opposite is also true so higher job openings might necessitate or lead to a stronger dollar so as we mentioned the market is not waiting until the FED eventually Cuts interest rates to start shorting the dollar the practice has already started happening and we have been seeing it happening time and time again so remember this is also the NFP week and also the fomc week so if you go back to the economic calendar and you scroll further downwards then you know that there are major decisions coming in later in the week so for the US specifically we'll be getting the federal Market commit uh press conference at 9:30 p.m. on Wednesday so there's an overall expectation that the FED will not be changing interest rates so of importance will be the focus on the press conference and what uh the Fed chair Jerome Pell says during that event so then on Friday we get the nonfarm perils where also there's an expectation that the us created a less number of NFP jobs compared to the previous month in this case we're expecting 177k versus the previous reading of 206k so if you look at the trend it's also not looking good so here we try and filter the 2020 data out which was an extreme and now you can see that the number of new jobs created in the private sector in the US has had a general trend of moving downwards so when uh the job market is uh doing this battery the FED may have to cut interest rates in order to stimulate economic growth and create creation of jobs so with that in mind then we basically know how to react to the data we expecting later this afternoon so besides this uh there's also the consumer confidence survey uh which is basically a survey that tries to establish what people are thinking Consumer Confidence about uh the economy at large so if personally uh the government came to you with a survey and uh they want to know uh what you think about the economy your response would be majorly based on your personal economy so if you have a business it's doing well if you have an income it's doing well uh if you are employed somewhere you're even getting raises then in that case your response would generally be positive about the confidence in the economy so these surveys tend to tell you more about the consumer purchasing power than the economy itself so in this case uh the consumer confid survey uh basically tells the government whether people are more willing to spend or whether they are less willing to spend so looking at the previous data uh you will notice uh that in the last reading uh there was 104 uh which is an index value but overall let's say from February from 106 uh we have generary trended downwards we go to 100.4 and now we could be moving to 99 .7 meaning that Americans are losing confidence uh in the performance of the economy over time because their purchasing power is also reducing as a result of higher mortgages higher interest rates and higher consumer prices as a result of the accumulated inflation over the last four years so in this case if we see consumer confidence going down then that should be a signal for the FED to cut interestes are uh in this case uh it should be negative for the dollar so on the other hand an increase in consumer confidence should be positive for the USD so that being mentioned um if you have already joined whether you're watching this from YouTube or from X uh kindly leave a comment uh like and share this video and I appreciate uh this contribution from you guys so uh hello googie Moses I can see somewh in the house thank you for joining hello Gideon uh thank you for joining in today uh wangari Patrick thank you for joining Joshua K is in the house uh hello and hi to you back so let's get to the favorite part of the presentation where we do some charts analysis uh try to understand the current market structures and where the markets might be headed next so hello Roy from X uh thank you for joining so on this next part uh Dollar Index we'll be looking at a couple of charts on the metatrader five trading application so also it's important to share a disclaimer that this session is a not investment advice it's not a recommendation to trade so you should always do your own due diligence so I'll be starting with the familiar asset that we use use as an Anka and this is the dollar mainly because uh a majority of all currencies around the world are basically priced in the dollar as the base asset so in this case uh we saw the dollar trading sideways and this was last last week uh before it exploded higher yesterday and uh managed to grow at a high and today we have seen the continuation of this momentum as the dollar Index recovers against other currencies so this is quite a good trajectory and knowing that the dollar is currently pretty strong today we can also see it in the major currency pairs where in the EUR USD pair there has been a significant drop in the last two hours uh indicating how the dominant dollar is uh basically uh moving markets so clearly for EUR USD it's basically touching a major support area here so in this case uh we are basically seeing uh the market being at very interest price levels so whenever you see uh major currency fa trade being at a support area uh then you know it's highly likely that you might capture a good position onto the next support or resistance level so the key thing is to know which direction you are taking so in this case as we have already analyzed uh we know that at 5:00 p.m. we'll be having the jol's job openings data so the likely price levels the now turned resistance which now we can work with the high happen to see a week dollar as be seeing the market recovering and going back to the previous High onwards and a strong dollar could potentially push on this Market or the way down to the previous High yeah and this is around 1.0 7693 so this is also AAL movement depending on the outcome of of the J's job openings later in the day so we also have the dollar trading against the Swiss frank which has maintained this bearish momentum so we have a technical price Action level so I'll try and remove these trend lines are forming a very pattern it gets to this it finds resistance and eventually moves further downwards and we could be seeing this happening or play pring out and this is the high that we saw on the data comes very strong Market which is highly unlik it dropping e e e e sorry guys I don't know what happened got disconnected for a while but now I'm AUDUSD back so I believe the asset I was discussing was the Australian dollar against US dollar so clearly it's a market moving on a sideways momentum so potentially making a break out of 0.65 671 or yesterday's high versus yesterday's low might determine the direction basically implying that breakout above here or below here would potentially indicate a trade but trading within here doesn't make sense since you're trading within a range and the market is not making very strong directional movements so as for the favor asset gold uh it's making quite an impressive recovery so remember in our analysis last time we were expecting that gold would make a major swing here and drop all the way to the lower trend line but it seems to have found a major support around this area here and since then bounced and is now moving higher so seeing the strong recovery in Gold Happening Here uh there's a likelihood that this might be extended later in the session especially depending on the outcome of the J's job openings report so this might be a likely Target if we see an explosive momentum where gold potentially breaks the previous High the previous high is not very far off uh this is a 2400 so if we happen to break or bridge above 2400 then the next Target is all the way up at to 2431 so also the revers is also true we could be seeing gold dropping to previous laws uh the previous low is no longer here we looking at all the way down at around 20 355 and these might uh be fueled by the J's job openings data where as we have mentioned uh week jobs job openings uh would mean a week a dollar which means gold continues the to 2431 but then if we see a surprisingly strong report then the dollar could strengthen and we see a drop to 2355 so us Equity indices have not been left out we are seeing a strong Bounce from a major trend line that extends all the way back to the 12th of October and this is last year so having seen a big sell off and a correction happening in Sp 500 uh it eventually landed on this trend line and since then we have seen a bounce and the market seems to be making some good recovery so in this case the key level test is whether the market breaks this resistance which has been holding for the last three days so for three consecutive days the market has been unable to break this area and there's potential that as we enter the New York session the market could potentially break here and move higher so if we see a break above this point here then the next Target is all the way up that is a 5580 so we could be seeing an acceleration of price uh towards this area here as the SP 500 recovers so NASDAQ also doing the same stuff making a recovery and uh as you can see we have a major trend line here which implies that the Market having bounced here could potentially and get to this area and potentially interact with this previous support so the Dow is also making a strong recovery so from the forward chart this is how it looks like so the big sell off that happened uh last week managed to land on this particular trend line and all we are seeing this week is some form of recovery uh though yesterday there was some some form of selloff today uh the market is attempting to push higher so we could be seeing some nice acceleration to this resistance and potentially breaking and going for the previous High which is all the way up so uh o having met a head and shoulder pattern I remember we discovered this about three weeks ago we identified potential Breaking Point a bouncing point from this upper trend line and eventually we had the breakout an acceleration downwards then from here we projected that when the market breaks now we are headed all the way down and this train seems Unstoppable which means that there's a likelihood that o extends the losses and keeps pushing until we get to this major support area around 76.7 53 per barel so uh Bitcoin made a recovery and managed to hit a high of over $70,000 so after hitting this High which was uh yesterday uh it made some pull back and now it's uh really struggling around this area here so we'll be watching cros to see if there's signs or or evidence of the market finding some ground and making a bounce so as for today's price action it seems more of a consolidation uh more or less like a sideways momentum so unless something major happens we don't have a lot of activity here so uh that's it for the day uh there's also European Equity indices uh as you can see the Spanish Ibex is making a recover recovery so it seems like uh all market indices are making uh recoveries this week so after bouncing from this support area can see Market attempting to move higher and for the Euro stocks it's the same thing making a recovery uh the UK 100 uh managed to make a very strong bounce here broke the upper trend line and uh the upper trend line was here just highlight this so this was the upper trend line overall so there was a clean break Market pulled back we should be expecting to see some form of continuation this week so the French 40 index after hitting a new low here in what looked like a strong breakout already got back into the pattern meaning that there's a good chance we see more recovery and this is H the same thing for the German Ducks so thank you everyone thank you for your time I'll be checking to see if there's any question before I end the session hello J Squad and thank you for joining so I can see one question still on the stocks there has been very good earnings reports for most of the companies reporting today yet the volatility is reduced and mostly bearish what is leading to this so the market was basically experiencing a correction and uh for you to turn from a correction back to bullish momentum uh investors will mostly require more evidence so for instance some of the top compan companies missed earnings uh like United Health Group uh one of the biggest uh retail chains in the US also missed uh earnings that is uh Walmart and uh now we are seeing Tech uh being the Savior yet again so yes investors are weighing these different earnings uh we should be getting a good percentage of SP 500 Stocks by the end of the week and that will give the investors um stronger decision however overall with the potential of the FED cutting interest rates on the September meeting uh this should be bullish for equities so we should be seeing equities make a strong recovery from this price level uh seeing one last comment from J Squad squeezing thank you I just trying my best so today on the Euro News that you've had in the course will Euro strengthen or weaken so as I mentioned it's a looking more as like mixed data so with mixed data it means that now we compare the Euro with another currency majorly the US dollar which will be having news at 5:00 p.m. so as we have discussed with the J's job job openings uh there's a two likely outcomes of whether the openings are strengthening or weakening with more likelihood that they are weakening and if they weaken they also weaken the dollar so you could be seeing the Euro making some recovery against the dollar and that's the likely outcome based on my analysis so uh looking at the unpredictable Trends by JPI payers could there be unforeseen interventions by BJJ uh yes we had an intervention happening some time back and that intervention didn't last for long but it was quite powerful to reverse the trend so when we saw this happening uh this big move here this was likely an intervention followed by this and uh if you go to a bigger time frame in this case the 4 Hour chart so this was likely an intervention another intervention but then the market continued naturally down but then what we are seeing here is the market making a major major Bounce from a major support area so notice that the first intervention that we saw this year dropped the USD JPI to this price level so this was the third intervention and it led to the same price Action level and it seems like the market is not taking it and it's going against that intervention so that's why I drill this trend line here to show you the likely breakout point the breakout point was right here about 3 hours ago implying that the market is having more pressure to the upside and downside so what we are seeing here is the dollar making an impressive recovery against the Yen and uh if we see the market now breaking above 15535 then the other direction should be 15758 7 so we have seen this trend happen over and over again uh BJ intervenes Market recovers BJ intervenes Market recovers and in this case it's no different as policy Still Remains the Same rates are expected to be maintained at 0.1% by the bank of Japan so uh that's it I'm not seeing any other question thank you very much guys thank you for your time and I hope to see you on the next session remember to watch the latest episode of the bullish B podcast we also have new content on the financial incorrect podcast 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