The State of Our Democracy with James Carville & Reince Priebus

[Music] [Music] thank you our people expect their president in the Congress to find a central agreement on issues of great moment the wise resolution of which will better shape the future of the nation never better that in those times of great challenge when we came together not as Democrats or Republicans but as Americans United in a common cause because of the political divisions we see in our country today I also think it is a counter model for how people ought to make all kinds of decisions we can decide to come together and make our country reflect good inside us and together we shall write an American story a story of decency and dignity love and healing greatness and goodness may this be the story that guides us [Music] foreign [Music] I'm Bruce Bond co-founder and CEO of Common Ground committee and it's such a pleasure to be presenting this event today with our partner the dornsife center for the political future here at USC and on behalf of all of my colleagues at Common Ground committee and our media partner the Christian Science monitor thank you all for being with us today now the video you just saw gives you a sense gives you a little insight on our organization we're a non-partisan citizen-led non-profit bringing light not heat to public discourse and we're working on bringing healing to the challenges of incivility and polarization the threaten our country now this is our 19th public forum and today's topic is finding common ground on the state of our democracy and I'd like to encourage everyone to go ahead and tweet and if you look up on the screen you'll see there are some hashtags that you can use so let's get right to it first look at this amazing panel I'm thrilled to introduce our moderator who is a truly legendary political strategist and for decades he's been one of the most influential voices in the Democratic party please give a very warm welcome to the director of the dornside center for the political future and the Carmen H and Lewis warshaw chair in Practical politics at USC Bob Shrum towards your sir [Applause] I'm deeply grateful to the Common Ground committee which does such extraordinary work seeking to transcend the partisan divisions in this country for partnering with us for this discussion our guests are going to engage with me and with each other for an hour and then we'll have half an hour for questions from the audience including students who are watching remotely from the George H.W bush school at Texas A M University so let me introduce two people who probably don't need an introduction James Carville is the legend he's a colleague an old friend with whom I worked back in the day he is truly a political icon he was the architect of Bill Clinton's 1992 Triumph and a driving force in other successful Center left campaigns here and around the world he's frequent and incisive acerbic and often funny as he comments on television uh reince priebus is the former and long time chair of the Republican National Committee he was also the first white house chief of staff for president Donald J Trump earlier as state party chair in Wisconsin he built a republican Bastion that lasted for nearly a decade given the circumstances however I can't say I ever worked with him but I can say that I think of him as a friend and we have been on stage together before he is smart and thoughtful about the American politics in which he has played such a large part so let me start with this leading up to this election there was talk about what might happen afterwards but we haven't seen riots or candidates refusing to accept outcomes in fact let's listen to what historian John Meacham said the day after the election but enough Americans said I actually want a constitutional republic where we argue about differences peaceably we don't encourage political violence we understand that democracies are about giving and taking and it's harder to give than to take our natural instinct is to take and I think more than half the country made a decision that they would rather have a constitutional republic where you may not get everything you want on policy this afternoon but you want to preserve a system that has delivered more good than ill so how do each of you assess the state of our democracy and what do the midterm results in the near record turnout tell us about our Democratic future James you want to go first well thank you Bob and Mr I love being on campus you know I really love college the best four years of my life was spent as a sophomore at LSU and I I I just got to do that I would be with this Bob Trump and I go back forever I've traveled Mary and I have traveled with he and OC uh he's just one of the people that I just holding such stagnally high regard and his knowledge base is so much broader than politics you can't imagine it so he and his wife have a pleasure having dinner with him last night and I can't tell you how lucky y'all are to have him I also want to play Rich's kid Jack is applying to SC I just want to tell y'all if you take him he will double the size of the college Republic the water breaks of Common Ground you could have two College Republic bipartisan pitch I'll make a pitch but you know Bob I think you you got a little stroke around this joint maybe you can do as I do every night and then make a phone call to the dean of the medical school or something um I I'm gonna be a little optimistic here uh I think that these losing politicians saw the election returns and they said this is not popular I better not do that I mean so you had maybe Cary Lake but it was just not election deniers I mean people politicians kind of like TV went down that road and that it was an election that we couldn't lose that we tied and so I I actually gonna give the American people some credit here they weighed in and they said well like this and I think uh John was right and I think this is one of these rare instances that we seldom see where where the people actually ran the show and the politicians actually had to pay attention to them but uh maybe I'm just Optimist maybe I want to believe good things about people but I I I I I see this like changing Behavior and I think that's being driven by the public and so hats off to the public right yeah do you agree by the way that election denialism was repudiated in these midterms well and that we're probably not going to see much of it certainly the people who you know didn't respect the opinions of the courts didn't do so well right um let me just tell you my positives at least as I see them there weren't a lot for the Republicans number one but there was um I think a Feeling that we're all sort of just tired of the fighting I think we're all kind of tired of hating each other and I was getting that sense before Tuesday being on the buses and the RVs even with um a lot of our folks and I think there was that sense that we've got to come together as a Country Republican Democrat it doesn't matter I mean it can't be possible that every single Senate race in America is a contest between you know a a left-wing anti-American liberal or a right-wing fascist Mega extreme I mean it can't be right I mean it could be that we get two people running to love America they don't agree with each other a lot and maybe that's the way we need to start looking at our politics um the other thing I thought aside from I think some of the wedge issues that I think the Democrats did they throttled us with it I mean they throttled Us in in municip in in University towns and places like Madison Wisconsin with abortion and other issues I mean it did bring out the vote in a way that I had not seen and I I'd I mean I know every square inch of that state of Wisconsin I've never seen a wedge issue like that played out in such a way that no one saw it coming even the Democrat pundits didn't see it coming they were on Monday criticizing the Democrats for talking about abortion in j6 well what were the issues remember inflation crime gas groceries right but guess what that wasn't what ended up carrying the day last thing what I also saw was that I think that at least in this election that the American people have sort of glazed over the vitriol between the two parties in other words yes the country is clearly if you ask the average American it's a 75 to 80 wrong track Biden's approval ratings at 41 percent but the American people did something funny they said yeah we know that about Biden we know what you all say about Biden but you all say that stuff about each other so much that we're we're not listening to that anymore and I'm not going to blame my Senator or my governor for what is going on up here between the parties so I think some of that stuff's going on all that being said is that I generally agree that the country first is and and putting our country before party is something that I think we can all agree on together especially we're talking about common ground last thing I want to thank Bob USC and Common Ground for having us it's an honor to be here a beautiful campus with a lot of great people so thank you let us tear in so so do either of you think that democracy itself was on the ballot in 2022 and why or why not well so as teaching it too late it could understand some democracy and so this was during the Arab Spring yeah it could be not much and I said look if I could go to Egypt to get a job working on a campaign how many of you would come with me 80 percent I said okay so we're going to have a democracy uh where the polling places going to be who's going to work the polls what are going to be the campaign Finance rules if we're going to have a parliamentary democracy uh over there to have a constitutional marketers who have a house a senate a parliament if you run for public you don't have districts are you going to have a slate uh if there's a dispute who decides to dispute all right who decides who gets how much time on TV Bob and I work around the world it's great and far away in it to have a democracy it's not the first election that's critical it's the second it's the second election that determines the fate of the democracy so it's it's a very difficult complicated inelegant form of government and it it has it has many different purposes so I live in a democracy when 18 percent of the United States elects 52 senators think about that 18 of the country elects 52 scientists and that could change all right forget about it so you know I don't know what what a perfect democracy looks like but whatever we have we had it for a long time and it's it's worth keeping and again when people what I think people I'm gonna go back and actually as I continue to think about it I think the American people conducted an intervention all right I really do it and let's tell you this in the Bible tell you this is an election that the Democrats should have just done awfully I mean by any historical standard by any anything that you want to look at I mean if a tie is kissing your sister that's the best sister kiss I ever had in my life uh so uh yes but when I and if I was telling any young person want to be in politics I was in college if I could recommend one course it would be comparative government it really illuminates you in a lot of ways and I I can't tell you how much I was it impressed me and it is probably we worked in Latin America worked in Israel and you would you use the word democracy there's a lot of different examples of democracy right that it's very hard it's very complex it requires building institutions over a long period of time yeah I can't tell you what a complicated subject this is so I've tried the best that I can so let me build on that minds and ask you uh are there steps we can and should take to shore up confidence in our democracy I mean it takes a long time to count ballots for example and what about passing the Electoral College Reform Act during the lame duck session of Congress yeah uh well first of all yeah I don't think it should take a week to count ballots but I also think that there's already been examples of states that do all in mail voting and they do it right I mean go look at Utah go look at Colorado go look at Oregon I mean I I've we've reached the point where for Republicans it's time to stop complaining about mail-in voting and just get better at it and get off your rear end and realize that you know it's election month not election day but I also think that elected officials and perhaps you say a solution would be you know a bipartisan group of attorney generals and governors that get together and say we're going to address this voting system issue we're going to look at the states that do it right you know and we're going to copy it but you know I want to touch on if you don't mind this democracy issue you know one of the things you've got to keep in mind is that when the general public looks at these elections you know the way I look at it is it's always it's it's it's always democracy when we have election day it was democracy in 2016 when people were looking for the biggest middle finger they can find and they found it that's democracy it's democracy when we think we're going to win in a landslide and everything tells us we are the data says it the early vote analysis says it the polling says it but guess what we the people didn't see it that's democracy um so the one thing to keep in mind is that when you're in in the weeds and politics and as James just said I mean what he really is saying is about 200 000 people in this country decided every one of these Senate races in America 48 of the of the folks are hard set Republican 48 are hard set Democrat we never had that kind of that level of partisanship where the middle is almost gone in 1976 about 38 of the general public not leaners Republican leaders Democrat but pure Independence about 36 percent today that number is nine so when you're a political operative like I am what I'm doing with that nine percent if you were the if this was Wisconsin you're the nine percent right here and I know what beer you drink what car you drive how many kids you have how much money you make whether your mortgage is right side up or upside down I know every single thing about you and I'm messaging to you each individually and I've got this person knocking on your door and Bob's knocking on your door and we're checking if your absentee ballot came in that's what's happening on the ground so all of these things are happening up here but Underneath It All the slicing and dicing of the electorate and the individual campaigning is going on and you know further isolates the population as well so I think it's all democracy but in the end I think the American people in the end they have the say and and that's what reminds us of every two years by the way I don't think you want to send James and me to knock on their doors because you won't get the outcome I know uh you both sound pretty optimistic so let me ask this and reince maybe you can start this time what can we do about the threats of rising violence that we've seen from Charlottesville to January 6 to threats against the Supreme Court Justice to the attack on Paul Pelosi can you assess the impact of social media on the accelerating polarization in our politics um well I I think that it's very scary what's happening because I think for every message that you're giving your kids I know this is about politics I'll get to that in a second you think that you're bugging with your kids by saying you can do that you can't do that well they're hearing times 30. for every one of your little reminders there's 30 other reminders telling them the opposite thing it's the same it's happening in politics I think we're going to get to media in a second but let me just tell you this there is no money in unity there is only money in division dividing is profit getting you riled up and excited is profit so if you if you had an issue let's just say I'm in Northern Virginia I'm upset because the schools won't open I'm upset because they're making the kids wear masks and I got a problem with it so I look on Tick Tock I look on Instagram I read an article a few days later I know I got six articles then I'm swiping 20 times denim swiping 50 times I was like wait a minute the school board in Louisiana the school board and before so that's out of control and people were not just dividing on paid media we're dividing at the micro level and we're engaging in the public in walking down I think their worst instincts so you know I I don't know what to do about this Bob but I know that when people ask me what are the things that are dividing America one is there's no moderate districts anymore in America every you know in spite of all of our chatter if we were all in Congress today or you were state representatives in spite of it being the most vitriolic political time in modern history at least modern history we've killed each other 100 years ago but 95 percent of you don't even have a race it's a joke to you only five percent of you even have to raise a few dollars to make sure you get reelected so between that the media that where profit is division and social media we have the perfect storm I think that's creating the biggest problems in America so James how do you react to that I mean but are we headed for a second Civil War of some kind and how do we restore basic Norms well they don't you know we started we made a slight start in the election and sent a signal and politicians kind of heard it honestly they reacted differently to 2022 than they did to 2020. yeah it the violence you know you just have these people that only do if you go into sight I have like a brother-in-law that does that it like it is a great day it doesn't you know these people look normal they'll pull the door open for you if you have a heavy bag you're trying to get it out of the luggage department in the airplane they will help you they look totally normal it just it comes out of their mouth you go oh my God man who told you that then he says James I do my own research oh God when somebody tells you that stand by okay or when somebody says I'm not saying but I'm saying I said you better shut up because you're getting ready to say something good but it so you have that and I understand but covert drove some people crazy almost drove me crazy I mean it I don't know the answer to it I obviously you know he's about opening schools well the kid died hard with a kid but you have a look at the lunchroom lady you think she's vulnerable the school bus driver the custodial workers the school teachers yeah it's like a school teacher was two years from retirement and she'd like she worked for me in Shenandoah Valley and she'd come by and cook after school for me and she said man I don't I don't know if I want to go I got high blood pressure I got diabetes I'm two years away from retirement and I can understand that and I understand the same and I understand people I'd say we're really stunting the development of these children but it it ain't an easy issue that's my problem they are actually two sides to it does the mainstream media make this easier to deal with or do they actually complicate it the the mainstream media because I hear this all the time they actually have less power than they've ever had let me give you an example and Bob and I remember as well you're too young in 1967 Lyndon Johnson said I've lost Walter Cronkite I've lost the war well if you lose Wolf Blitzer you ain't lost who cares okay and people go it because you know I like well if I'm not I would say the same thing about about anybody else but but in 92 on our campaign plane God we had it was packed with with reporters and they were we even had to have a trail plan now that's probably 28 people because they don't have the power they don't have the money consolidation everything and so we just kind of say say things but what's happened is media consumption is not a people eight 75 80 percent of people use the media in a way that a drunk uses Lamppost he's losing it for support not illumination you know he's just trying to stand up so people say hey if you give me 25 a month I'll tell you everything that you want to hear and I got an algorithm and I can just like for instance something that tells me but the voters I know exactly how to Market to you I know exactly how to get the clicks and the main thing I'm going to tell my brother-in-law is you've been right the whole time and your brother-in-law is an idiot all right it don't and they'll do anything to get his 25 a month and so if you go on the you know some mainstream media site you're not going to affect that many people and I I don't know that there is an answer to this uh because it's just really it it's really disheartening to say the least and you know when when people pay good money for for bad information that's bad for democracy right well I think if you're dividing your rating and if you're rating you're invited back so you know that's that's that's kind of the way it is um so you know I remember running the RNC and there'd always be books from other conservative commentators and the books were never about oh here are the 12 things the party's doing well it'd always be like here are the 10 things that you know make them suck and here's what they should do to fix themselves because if they don't then we're going to lose our part I mean and that that book sells right you can see it you know the people who leave the White House right the people who are selling books or the people that are dishing the most dirt I mean can you imagine working in the White House and you're dealing with you know issues like usmca you're dealing with issues involving Syria and and uh and you have to worry that when you're talking to someone they're going to turn around and write a book and go sell copies because why because dividing cells and it's a huge problem I don't know how to fix it but I do know it exists and the other piece is last thing it also speaks to what the individual members in the party think they need to do to be popular too you know 20 years ago one other thing 20 years ago 30 years ago 40 years ago when you went to Washington you became an expert say in armed services and you be you became known in armed services and you had this expertise that you developed or whether you're AG person or a Commodities person and then when it was all said and done in this wonderful career and Congressman Shrum is here to talk about what's happening in the world and by the way he's on the board of Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman and he has an expertise today you just have to get on TV you just have to get on Tick Tock you just have to get clicks the people who are raising the most money in both parties are people who've accomplished nothing when it comes to a career so that it's changed in the sense of what the career is or what the what these elected officials are doing and what it means to be you know famous and elected that whole dynamic has changed and I think it's been for the worse so watch cable TV but but anything and see how many times somebody says well you're exactly right Rachel well Sean I really agree with you Anderson that's a very good point all right because that's going to get you back on all right so it's by Nature a rig deal and uh just I've talked about myself just likely and people come up hey James little you know boom boom what and people were never to recite you don't sound like everybody else and we just come to the point where everybody agrees with anything any anchor asks them and it it's not a it's a I don't know how to change it I mean I'm not mad about it I'm not anything but I just think that the general public and particularly young people they're just looking for something different or honest of just anything but you know people gone they got three talking points you know they try to and people see through that I'm sorry I think they just do by the way Chuck Todd had a poll a few weeks ago I took a picture of it in my kitchen and it said what are the top threats to democracy number one was social media number two is paid cable and it went on Republicans Democrats all the other suspects but interesting that social media was like 93 by the American people is picked as the number one threats well we're moving a little away from optimism but let me say yeah hey but we are yeah no one looks at the shoes guess who's the Republican he's deceptive he's good right nice jeans and wonderful shoes on uh so as I said we moved a little away from the optimism and there's a lot of doubt about institutions in this country take a look at this Gallup poll from July when you look at the Gallup poll uh the I think Congress is at the bottom but no one's doing very well uh confidence in our institutions is draining away and Congress at the bottom doesn't that make it hard for republicans and Democrats to get along and get things done when in fact if they actually got along to a certain extent and got some things done maybe confidence in the Congress would go up well and listen they actually have they actually have made some pretty significant Common Ground accomplishments and we just can't sit here and like not say that they're not some positive things no let's think go through them let's go through them right the chip thing was Common Ground yeah infrastructure is that what cures act yeah that was one okay uh the marriage equality uh sensing reform infrastructure infrastructure if you if you want to connect with people tell them the truth all right they're certainly insufficient it's all of this but it's not in Ukraine I'm sorry for for the most part there's a lot of common ground there see don't just assume because if you tell people everything is bad it okay most things are bad okay we can argue about the most things about or half the things of that but it's not all bad is that why people think Congress is held is that why they hold it in such disrepute because they're told things are bad there and aren't told about the good things that's happened it's remarkable how much hat does get done in Congress that you never hear about uh another one where there's common ground that has United Americans China yeah I mean for the most part most of the Republicans agree on our sort of new sort of hawkish view of China and most Democrats have in the past and so now there's some agreement on China's being a real threat to the United States and the world the one thing I'd say is one of the reasons why it is a challenge so I do think that there's a lot more positive than negative as far as Republicans and Democrats working together I don't so but but the reality is is that when I said before about how 95 of everyone in the House Representatives is safe it's because there's no real competitive districts anymore so if James and I were best friends and we had a beer together every night and we lived in San Diego here's the reality of where we are his district goes that way and it's 80 percent Hispanic and 80 percent Democrat my district goes that way and it's 80 percent white and 80 Republican he's not coming to the chamber meeting on Wednesday I'm not going to the Hispanic Church Festival on Sunday he's talking about what about the kids that are here at the no fault of their own I'm saying what about putting up a 100 foot fence on the border same media Market same newspaper same article we're seeing the exact opposite things and we've got a better chance of getting reelected than waking up tomorrow and you all sit around and say well why can't you guys just compromise what am I supposed to do turn my back onto 80 of my district that loves everything I'm saying is he supposed to do that too all because of what bipartisanship so the reality is the margins are thinner The Independents are smaller the amount of districts in player less so fewer here it is fewer people in America are deciding the outcome for everybody so how do we fix this okay well I so there wasn't something that happened in this election that I think is potentially explosive I think this is so explosive it could actually change American politics all right you said James come on man okay hear me out proposition 211. what is that what is that what is that so citizens in Arizona decided that dark secret money in politics was a existential threat to elections to democracy to confidence to everything so they organized and they put on ballot a proposition that said any body that comes in this state and spends more than five thousand dollars on politics has to disclose because they had Dogma with them you know what percent of the voted got 73. 73 it carried every County and there were 16 billion dollars that we know of that were spent in this cycle and the corrosive effect of big money on politics and the corrosive effect it has on public attitudes toward politicians in Congress is just awful and you're starting to see people actual people saying I've had enough of it we're going to do something and people could organize it they could go in different states they could but strip malls they can do signatures you can find lawyers you can activate people you can have Republicans and Democrats man it all the same and by the way you could insist on the 28th Amendment and you can authorize that nothing in this constitution shall prohibit the Congress from regulating money in politics right I think that they would be the real sense that people have is this is a rig deal don't give me any of this crap about I can petition my government like anybody else No One Believes that because they shouldn't believe it it's not true it's just some garbage talking point but what an individual can do is start organizing people and saying I ain't waiting on him we're going to go get the signatures we're going to put it on the ballot we're going to do the work we're doing ourselves right what would you do to fix the problem you're talking about I would allow for I if I could I would get rid of the anonymous corporate donations in politics and I would allowed for higher limits with full disclosure to parties and candidates so if there's full disclosure either unlimited or full disc or limited but High limits fully disclosed no corporate no 501c3 C4 uh that's what I've I've been talking about that for years how about nonpartisan reapportionment um I mean defense is deciding what what the rules are right I mean it's always the problem California though it kind of works yeah I I I'm not an expert on what California is doing but um certainly you know unpacking districts to I think make seats a little bit more competitive would be great but you know you know these things are challenged by the courts all the time and part of our problem is is that in spite of you know people not liking the way that these lines get drawn they are constitutional I mean they get brought up and down the federal courts every 10 years and they they see the gamut of the Judiciary so trying to change something that isn't you know that is that it's constitutional is pretty tough to do in states that don't want to change it's only constitutional because the Supreme Court says it is it's true you can't wait that Louisiana has a 33 black population and has one six of the Congressional Delegation that if that that's just blatant that's brightly in violation of 15th amount I think but my opinion does not count but but of course it does that's why you're here Justice it would count but I think it's insane so uh before I'm and I'm gonna ask you one other kind of surprise question then we're going to turn to questions from the audience but I I want to talk about the elephant and donkey in the room first uh the apparent tensions in both parties uh the Murdoch media Outlets from the New York Post to the Wall Street Journal to Fox News along with a number of other Republican office holders seem to be turning away from former president Trump in favor of Florida's governor DeSantis I mean you can see this on the screen and by the way there's one other headline here that I think is absolutely amazing in the New York Post look at that that's the day before Trump was making the announcement Florida man makes announcement see page 26. I mean that that's pretty amazing uh at the same time some Democrats are talking about a different 2024 nominee than President Biden how seriously do either of you take these developments or are they just noise you you want to go first yeah I mean I ran as you all know the RNC in 2015. we had that 15 person circus that went on and on and on I happen to believe that primaries are good I think that they make candidates stronger I think makes the party stronger where we are today we're going to have a big Primary in the Republican party I think that's a good thing um and whether that's you know a sea change from where we thought things were going to be before the midterm maybe I think before the midterm we assumed that President Trump was going to run and maybe Rhonda Sanchez was going to run maybe wooden maybe he'd wait because he's young and there isn't doesn't want to get into a real battle but I do think things have changed and I think it'll be interesting for the party that's going to manage a a potentially big Republican primary with President Trump still being at least initially the favorite uh but we shall see whether Ron DeSantis can get any um make any ground in weather all the other members of the potential Republican primary are going to stay in or do they back out uh and and get a one-on-one between President Trump and someone else we'll see James most of the people who Democrats who've talked here today have assumed that President Biden will run and that he and largely that he should run right I don't think you agree with that I'm going to make a statement that I the markets are 100 50 people in this room will agree with but I think but Bob just kept 99. I looked this morning the current population in the United States by best estimates is now 333 million 426 875. you cannot tell me are that many people we can't find somebody under 75 to run this country I just don't believe it I don't accept all right and look I in part of I speak of Pelosi you know it's like okay how can she's 82 Hakeem is 52 you got to let it go dude all right I'm 78. all right you know when de Gall said he wasn't running for reelection he said oh my God we'll see a president what what is France could do with us he said the graveyards are fully indismissible people all right and I I I know the form does that but I think this country is just clamoring you know Bill Clinton people oh my God we're going to have a president that wasn't didn't serve in World War II oh Jesus just to complete the end of days oh my God Obama look I have a black president oh my god oh what's the country gonna do things go on right they go on and I I actually write a bit annoying president Bart for a long time I think he's done some remarkable things I think he's been a it could make a case that he's going to have one maybe not successful four years in some ways maybe he's successful eight years is a lot of presidents do but you can't do this job in your 80s I'm sorry I'm sorry I'm 78. all right and and it just tells you that and people it it Trump is old and fat and stale and we just found the Sun but I'm just telling you the people what I said about cable news in Pelosi I think I think what what Nancy did today is gonna it you know and I'm sure the president you know let me tell you something there is so much underlying tent up talent in the Democratic party you can't imagine it it's it's staggeringly the political talent that we have you know gather and splint us on the bench I mean I want to get these people out there let people take a look at them but evaluate them see what they got to say but I I just I I and I'm sure the president and again I'm sure the president has every intention of running for reelection but you know he's gonna have to explain and let me make one more point if you look at the Senate map it is literally so hard for Democrats you can't imagine just off the top of my head Ohio is up Montana is up Pennsylvania Nevada that could go on and on these senators are going to say wait a minute we we got to have energy in the party I mean we're going to get the crap beat out of us and I I know a lot of them know that and they're not how do we who's going to tell the president but but this is like that that that Scenic map is challenging to say the least so you just said who's going to tell the president so here's my surprise question and I'm going to ask a version of it first to reince and then to you rights as white house chief of staff what was your best day in the White House and what was your worst day well I would say my first day was my best day not because everything went downhill after that okay last night yeah um so I I I my first day I remember when I we came we got done with the uh the parade and I walked into the The West Wing and went up through the west wing and up to the residence and we had a kind of buffet dinner up on the second floor there you know the big dining room and I was sitting down on a big long table with President Trump and the grandkids were all around and the president looked at me and he said do you want to go to the oval I said well that'd be great let's go so it was dark and we we left we went down the back steps it was all dark we're following the Secret Service and we went through the corridor and in we walked to the oval and even though I'd been sort of I guess prominent in politics but Obama was the president so I wasn't ever going to be in the Oval Office so I remember I walked in and I when it was real quiet it's like this and I looked over at the president and it was the first time I could see like the real weight you know because Trump's tough you know he's a force of nature so you don't get to see him ever looking like so he I remember him standing like this and I remember he was looking at like and he said wow and he looked at me and he said can you believe it I said no Mr President I can't believe it I can't believe it and I walked onto my office you know the chief assessment and I I walked in and it's dark there's nothing there computer screen and there's a Bible verse that Dennis McDonough left me and a password for the computer and that's it that's how you start running the United States government just like that there is no manuals a couple little meetings that's it you're running the show worst day so I walked in to the oval again no that wasn't my last day but I walked into the oval and I saw a pretty gal mid-30s with her two little kids dressed up beautiful waiting in line for the president and I was trying to figure out what was going on here why were these people I couldn't you know lost track of the day it was the day the president was going to give his joint speech to Congress and I looked at this gal I'm looking at these kids fighting each other like kind of goofing off little brother and sister and I said wait a minute this is the wife of the Navy SEAL that died in Yemen and if you recall there was a time if you recall that we were talking about Isis group that was making bombs and they were putting them in laptops and they would take the bombs from the laptops put it up against the window of a commercial jetliner at 33 000 feet to blow these planes out so 10 days earlier General Mattis Tillerson chairman of Joint Chiefs CIA we had a dinner and they came in and said we need to get this ISIS group out of Yemen there's going to be a moonless night it's going to be in a few days here's what the mission is we need sign off to do it and I remember looking at that now going back to that day and I remember looking at that wife his name was Ryan Owens and I remember looking at her and thinking that how easy it was for me now it was unanimous it was going to happen Okay but when you personalize and you say how easy it was to say yeah we need to do this and then to look at those little kids and they have no idea that dad's not coming back because Dad's been going back he's 35 six times and just like that and that moment is a moment that you realize that you know all the nonsense and the cable news and the All the gossip that's what it is and that's that's what governing is and it and it's um I I think about him all the time yeah James worst day and best day in the Clinton campaign 1992. that's something to do with a cigar uh I had a lot of good days uh I may not election day yeah election day but but you know I really did I mean I still do I mean I literally worshiped President Clinton and uh you know we had challenging moments but I I just sometimes I never was a government guy but you know honestly you pinch yourself why the hell did I enough yet all right you know you just you sort of take stock of you know what's going on and I I don't know you know a lot of good days that's all I can say it's good great so we're going to turn to questions from our audience and here's how we're going to do this uh we're going to alternate between questions from those of you here at USC and questions submitted by students from the uh Bush School at Texas A M for questions from someone here form a line at the standing mics and I'll call on you uh and then I will read the questions from the folks at Texas A M so anybody go ahead hello Mr carbo oh yeah Mr carville's in the cemetery on North Street in Baton Rouge in 1973. so he won't answer you but I'm James um so I have a question so you're good at messaging I've seen your message when you uh worked with Harris Wofford in Pennsylvania about like um some a worker being able to see a doctor so I have a question about messaging when it comes to messaging in a political campaign is the messenger more important than the message because I feel like a message would carry more weight if it came from someone like a Midwestern Governor or Roy Cooper versus a California governor like Newsome first of all Bob Trump and I worked on that Campaign together we started out with 67 to 18. we were losing it it rewarded by born a little bit it's a very sophisticated question and you know it's Marshall mcluhan you know people have like thought of this but I haven't ever it it's hard to separate the messenger from the message all right and there's just some people that given us that who they are Etc et cetera at their communication skills they're certain messages that fit them and in that instance that was a great message because Harris the one who knew who he was all right and so he kind of his introduction to I said well it doesn't make sense to me a a criminal is entitled to a lawyer but an organ person doesn't have any right to doctor people gee I agree with you you know we used to do spots in Baton Rouge to say let me ask you something for 14 year old can find a drug dealer why can't the cops well the truth of the matter is the drug dealer they're looking for the drug dealer not to God but people oh yeah that's right God damn it you know the cops can't find them in a 14 year old can find them but these kind of pithy things more so would someone knew that forms for an introduction makes a difference and I'm glad you brought up the one about uh Harris's campaign another thing I said was kind of paraphrased is that Pennsylvania was Pittsburgh and Philadelphia and Alabama in the middle but anyway thank you for it was a sophisticated question thank you so here's a question from Michael a master of public service and administration student class of 2023 from Texas A M he says President George W bush said public service is a noble calling and we need men and women of character to believe in their communities and their states and in their country what does this mean to you and reince I'll give it to you first what does this mean to you and how do you see it being applied today well first of all I agree with it um I think I think for the most part the people who are out there running in these competitive races across the country that we just went through I think for the most part they're Patriots and they love the country and I think that we need more Republicans and Democrats to say that about each other instead of the scenario that I outlined earlier about how we got these two Polar Opposites which isn't really the case I think we need more people that are willing to get involved if you're a student out there at Texas A M I was a person who I came up to the ranks a different way when I was a teenager I was volunteering for the local party I was going to events I was putting up yard signs I became a college Republican president a student body president I was a volunteer I never made money in politics ever until I finally won on the seventh ballot at a Republican National Committee election um you know they couldn't decide on who wanted they wanted to win and I just lasted longer than everyone else but the reality is is that I think if that's your calling and you're out there and you're interested the one thing I would tell you is that if that's your passion to pursue it I was very fortunate I know James is the same way that as a young person I had a passion about this I loved it and I pursued it and even though I was a lawyer and I was a litigator the passion that I had overtook it all and it became a wonderful career and it's been a good life and so a lot of people say you can't make money doing this and don't do that and you know you can't make money as a dancer or an artist or a politic whatever you can if it's your passion and you pursue it and you practice and you and you harness that passion into something useful so I know that's a little bit different but for the kids out there there's a lot of ways to get to the same place just go where you want to go and and work hard James anything about this well first of all uh I'll tell a friend at Texas A M I think we've got a little scuffle scheduled uh the Saturday after Thanksgiving and college station and I I look forward to watching that uh yes and I agree with uh President Bush 41 said I completely agree with uh Rick said I uh I was kind of liked him and he became a almost like a father figure to President Clinton and I'd been to the bush library I've been invited there a couple of times and uh Bob Gates was the president of Texas A M he's always still on for calling James Carville to sets foot on this campus I would never give it another dollar you know it just these charged things are not they were they were present uh back there but I would tell this young man that you've got some real first class advice I don't like admitting this but you go to a real first class University that does real first class things and I'm sure you're going to have a great future and they might be in LSU uh I think we're a little happier with our coach than they are right now but I'll leave it at that next question uh from USC um a question about message and messenger uh James you said that the Democrats should nominate somebody on the planet under 75 who is that person or maybe the top two or three people that you think would be the most effective candidates for the Democrats who rights do you think would be the toughest candidate to run against on the Democratic side if it's not Joe Biden and on the message itself is what you said in 1990 true still true is it still the economy stupid or is it something else well that's a lot to impact your hair so all right I'll start with the Democrats I'll be you know vice president Harris I'm a success person she said vice president I don't want I hate doing this because I always leave people out and somebody I'm told that you that Newsome is more likely to run for the Senate than run for president I have no idea but he's a government of the largest state I don't think that's true huh he obviously has to be taken Jessica actually go on and on about J.B pritzker the governor Illinois what about big grunts I think Chief's gonna be a real force in National politics Gretchen Whitmer the governor of Michigan well just you know blazingly successful campaign big huge winner you know a woman of a lot of statutes substance you name it uh Gina ramalto the former governor of Rhode Island is now Secretary of Commerce Amy Klobuchar the brand a very credible campaign for president Pete Buda judge a current Transportation secretary uh Roy Cooper the governor of North Carolina there's only 10 more to go all of things all of these are really talented people and my favorite would be Miss Landry to former New Orleans mayor who I think is just one of the most staggering communicators I've ever seen but the point is there is a a whole no what's the word plethora of the word there's a whole bucket load of really talented people on the Democratic bench and I probably let some people out and I'll get people calling and screaming and you didn't mention my candidate's name and I apologize in advance but uh and you you got to let this you got to let it percolate up and you know remember the first thing on that white board was chains versus more the same and it also very proud of this the third thing on the Whiteboard is don't forget Healthcare and what's happened to American politics if you listen to people they don't separate Health Care from the economy I mean a lot of people in this room you look at your 401k which you'd rather not do and then you look at your physical your blood work they're two different things to a lot of people it's the same thing There's no distinction because there's just one sickness away from ruination but yes of course and you'd have to have something like really staggering to not have the economy as a dynamite it's just say like a riot to try to overthrow a duly certified election maybe that's a big enough event that that that interfered with this uh but I still think it's always better in politics to try to relate to people's lives and understand their hopes and understand their struggles you want to meet a handicap my sense of things so obviously president Trump Ron DeSantis I think there's still a lane for Mike Pence I don't know where that's going to go but it's early I agree with James you just don't know where this is where this is heading as far as Democrats that I would be most concerned with I mean we always just like Democrats in the room you always worry that we're gonna put in you know a real moderate entrance because you think oh boy that would be and we think the same thing you know moderate you know the governor of Colorado or Eric you you if the Democrats would nominate Jamie Diamond we would think oh God we can't beat Jamie Diamond but the Democrats are not going to nominate the governor of Colorado or Jamie Diamond because they don't fit you know the way that the the party worked I do think and a lot of people my party would disagree with them and think oh no California governor is never going to make it I think Gavin Newsom is someone that would be very that would be dangerous I mean for the Republicans and I do think that I mean he'll moderate I know most Republicans like oh no you can't he can't get over all the you know the crazy California liberal stuff that goes on but but I think he would be a formidable Democrat out there um so yeah no I think he's real so let me just address this a technical thing that you have to be aware the way that Democrats nominator president is our primary have a a portion so if somebody gets 30 percent then they get 30 delegates somebody gets 23 percent then they get 23 on Down the Line the Republicans do want to take off mostly and what that means is that if if Trump pertains to support of 40 percent of the Republicans and he has four opponents he gets all the delegates he gets he gets all the delegates it's one of these little technical inside politics things but it's actually significant by the way can I can I just add to that do you remember in 2015 people were saying that we were going to have a brokered convention and Ryan said and I could say it's not going to be a broker convention because they know the rules right and the rules are just not going to allow it it was the Democrats that are gouging each other's eyes out until June and Bernie Sanders and and Hillary and all the nonsense so yeah as you're watching these are like just not okay this really matters brokered conventions are unicorns people talk about them they never happen uh okay here's a question from Spencer a political science PhD student at the Bush School at Texas A M and James this goes to you uh and writes if you want to comment on us the Democrats strategy of promoting extremely right-wing candidates in the Republican primaries seem to pay off in the midterms Lake mastriano boldick we could go on and on all lost are you worried Democrats are going to learn the wrong lesson from this well first of all when this came out in in the whole oh my God this is terrible in college but when I'm running a campaign I got to tell you I'm trying to do one thing I'm trying to win it within the law that's my job all right when you get James Carver is a campaign manager you make a donation you show up yourself in blokes you walk precincts you expect one thing out of me to try to win the election and if I think that I can get me a better opponent and it's totally legal God damn it I'm going to do it all right and I defended these guys and I had to listen to all of this high end people fainting and but what's going to happen to the Fate you're trying to win an election all right period in the story and as it turned out it worked and I I'm gonna say if if I was one if I was given the designation of the democratic campaign of the year Josh Shapiro all right I barely know Josh Shapiro but I mean he got in at every level and he fought and kicked all right and you know he he went all over Pennsylvania he said You Wanna Talk About crime let me tell you I he didn't shy away from anything and I he had a lot to do with fetterman went in because he won by so much there wasn't that many ticket Splitters but Josh Shapiro is is a growing kicking face smacking you know James Carville kind of politician I got to tell you that a lot of common ground here yeah no okay I'm good uh next question from USC okay uh James I'd like to personally thank you for the approximately 500 emails I received part of uh Catherine in Nevada for her election but the question I have for all of you is in this time of dark money and super Pacs and everything what difference does our five dollars ten dollars hundred dollar uh contribution what difference does that really make look up James Carville The Onion said an onion did a story that James said it ain't going because you got an email and says if you don't give him 25 in the next 25 minutes he's going to blow himself up he had to Suicide best I sent out foreign Catherine for Val dimmings for Sherry Beasley for by Laura Kelly I send out more and people come up to the airport and said you know I got an email from you and I sent you a check and you never thanked me I get that all the time but but whatever reason if they have an algorithm in my name raises and I'm fine that's a totally I'm glad you're a good Democrat they got your name somewhere all right and and I'm I'll get 25 the next 25 minutes I'm gonna pull the card over my Suicide vest but the article is actually by the way just so you all know something when we do emails for small dollars we'll put out 20 different emails to you to millions of people and in real time depending on which name was getting more clicks the other emails that weren't open would switch to the email that was getting more clicks of James's email was clicking more than you know some other person then all the rest that haven't been open would they would click over too this is all the reason you're getting so many James emails is because number one you give and number two you tend to click on his name right so you're going to keep getting James email so as soon as you start moving to Jimmy Carter then you're gonna start clicking on Jimmy Carter and by the way it's your answer the five and tens are making up more than 50 percent of the overall gross into the Committees and so it used to be that the major donors out raised the small stuff the small stuff's out raising the majors so the the way that this is working now is the amount of money it's it's insane I will move out but Scott fanshauer who is Castle's campaign manager he called me and he said James that I saw this in the Poland and what do you think and I said Scott just asked me to sign the goddamn email okay you don't have to kiss my ass anymore okay here's a question for reince from Brenna a political science PhD candidate again at the Bush School at Texas A M is it the Republican party's responsibility to meet voters where they are on policy abortion climate change social welfare or is it the party's responsibility to lead based on conservative values well I think it's a little of both I mean I hate to answer it that way but I mean I think every District in every state is different when a republican in California in Orange county is not going to be the same you know as a republican in Midland Texas and that person is going to lead differently I think constituents tend to force that you know that answer depending on you know what where this politician's at where they're from and I think all that works together so um I just don't think there's any one particular answer to this question I think that everybody's different um I do think it's the responsibility of the Republican party though slightly different answer to go to communities that we don't represent that means we have to be at long time all the time presence in Black and Hispanic communities across this country because going back to what I described before if you if you break down congressional seats and you break down state houses and state senate seats and if you're not representing serious real Hispanic communities throughout California or throughout some parts of even Pennsylvania in Florida and in Puerto Rican communities around Orlando right if you don't go there and talk about your values then who's going to do it so we have a responsibility to do that and I've always said that if because if you don't if you don't do that on a full-time basis you're going to lose an atrophy across this country so I think that is changing the party that's what we did in 2013 and it hasn't stopped and you have seen the Republican Party make pretty good gains in Hispanic and black communities Across America now the number one last comment the number one demographic moving to the Republican Party are black men under 40. yeah I uh the Democrats are saying in 2020 I have worked for a group we raised a hundred million dollars and we spent it in 77 rural counties in Pennsylvania and Michigan and Wisconsin and we improve instead in my theory was and it's one of these that you know buying squirrel finds an acorn every now and then was that if you lost instead of losing 81 to 19. you lost 76 to 24. you were changed and it actually worked that's right I mean people that they did analysis in those three states we said look if you carry these three you're gonna win and everybody wants it like having you and that's fine for it to turn out in Milwaukee it turned out Detroit or turn on Philadelphia and what we found we do consumption studies I want these PhD students to understand this if we double blind test so we would run a message in one County in in the Pennsylvania T and wouldn't right it would take we'd told then we'd run a message in one and not another then we'd come back and see you again so we we actually knew what we were doing the other thing that we found out is in these counties the average age of a car was like 11 years and they're not on social media they on AM radio which has been totally vacated but by the Democrats well we bought a slew of AM radio signs and we get newspapers things that look like a newspaper crossword puzzles in it they had everything but it was obviously if any sophisticated person would read it and say hey this is a pro-democratic thing most people when they get that mail they read it all right I grew up real man you got a letter of Jesus I'm great look what we got here you know almost we're glad to get a bill so you know the Republicans do and it's it it's 100 true these races are one sometimes on the margins and the better people in this business find out what the most significant margin is because if you in in Georgia in you know you get a instead of losing the black vote 80 94 to six you lose 88 to 12. that's a lot if you have a lot if you have between a governor's race and a senate race in Wisconsin raising over 200 million dollars it's not you know it's not California it's a smaller market right 200 million dollars we're trying to influence 50 000 people that's what these races come down to so you talk about a wedge issue that's what he's talking about can if you have 50 000 people that even though we all have our strong opinions in this room most of you have an opinion you wouldn't be here you like this stuff but imagine after all that is spent after all the insanity you're still undecided it's identifying what wedge issue is going to move that 50 000 and if you go into your point if you go into Madison Wisconsin and you find out where those people are in abortion where it's a liberal area and you turn them out it only takes you winning a few thousand more people and all of a sudden oh well Ron Johnson won by twenty four thousand Mandela Barnes lost in in in the same thing the governor flipped the other direction that's what this comes down to well John fetterman did a brilliant job of going in to some of these red areas in Pennsylvania he didn't win them but he cut the margin so I said to the party after we lost in the governor's race we looked at Madison we looked at Dane County we got 21 of the vote Republicans lost by 180 000 ballots that's 30 000 worse than we've ever done before and my view is which gets to parties speaking to communities that they should be talking to but sometimes they write them off because they think we can't win anyway no party should ever accept having less than 30 percent of the vote in any County in America if Republicans and Democrats took that as a a basis rule then you'd have both parties communicating to more Americans across the country one we're going to try to squeeze in one more quick question because we're tight on time it's getting a good one hey what's up dude you got it it's all on you it's all you it's your moment yes of course sir professional just uh permission to speak freely Professor you asked for my permission oh no this isn't gonna be good no we're ready yes you know we're not doing immediately sometimes I said uh do y'all want me to speak frankly or just want me to kind of lollygag around here a little bit and tell you what you want to hear oh okay well okay thank you go ahead Steve Franklin thank you sir uh this is mostly a question directed to Chairman priebus uh-oh um as the head of the as the chairman of the Republican National Convention between 2011 and 2017. um during that time frame we've seen a rapid increase in election interference from foreign Nations specifically with pregosian and Vladimir Putin and with their troll farms and so forth in the Russian Federation I just wanted to know from Iran were you ever aware of the increasing risk of election interference from foreign countries and going onwards from 2024 and Beyond what is your opinion regarding the use of social media by foreign Nation some hostile some benefit some Ally towards us and manipulating no position withdrawn to keep talking you've asked your question it's a good good question yeah it's a good question it's not that bad of a question I don't I personally don't I mean when all that went down I had no idea what everyone was even talking about but I do but when I became white house chief of staff you do get briefed on those things that do happen it's not just elections it's manipulating people their opinions it's getting engaged in conversations that are happening not just in the United States but all over the world and it's sophisticated too by the way parties use these tools all the time we would have boards up in the RNC and we could see what the most important conversations that were going on in Iowa we could see what influencers were making that conversation move and from a non you know you're talking about foreign interference but from a pure influencing type campaign we would engage in that but as far as like foreign interference with I no no I do know that I spent hundreds of thousands of dollars and sat in front of FBI agents for hours on end on a you know BS investigation that had nothing to do with let me put it this way Donald Trump had a hard time coordinating with the RNC let alone the Russians okay so the only Russian thing I knew was Russian salad dressing so um so look I I think that uh I think a lot of things go on behind the scenes and get perpetrated by the press or just they just weren't the case the only thing I'd say about that if I can take the privilege of making a comment is he didn't have to coordinate with them they could still do well well they could but it turned out it turned out that that wasn't the case but uh we'll see yeah well we'll see yeah yeah yeah look that's all the time we have for questions and I really apologize to you guys uh I'd like to give you each a minute because you began on an optimistic note so I want to give you each a minute to tell me what's your best hope for the durability of American democracy my best hope is was my last day meaning when I left the White House and I looked at that glowing White House which I think stands for freedom and opportunity and all the things that we love about the country and I laughed that day I looked at that building and the one thing that's very obvious is that there's nothing on the outside that tells you what president and what parties on the inside so democracy endures it's it will be here and if we're if we if we we do our job and we work together and we do things like this where you can see and I hope the students out there can see that you can have Republicans and Democrats and you know Bob and I are are good friends and so are being James that don't agree with each other in a lot but get right down to it but we do care about each other and we do think that we're all Patriots together and I think that view back at that white house and and what what it stood for should give you some inspiration James what's your best hope young people you know what if you if you look at data there are two Americas and that there's a big is opinions of people over 45 and under 45. all right and it it it's really stunning and I've looked at people here Southern Cal or look at people at a m and think of all of the other of these kinds of schools around the country where these young people are doing this and being involved and studying and I I just want to tell all of you that you know this is a fun business you don't have to wear a hasher the whole time you can be involved in politics and you can have a meaningful life you can do it as an academic you can do it as a practical person you can do it as a candidate you can do it as a volunteer but we have to quit telling people that this is a god-awful business and there's no place for decent people or nice people because if decent people and nice people don't do it then you're going to have you know really scummy criminal people doing this so uh congratulations to all of you and all of your studies and your thought and what you do and you know God damn it pitch in and get involved and I think we'll be okay okay as I said at the outset we're we're deeply grateful to the Common Ground committee and the partnership that made this event possible so I and I want to invite uh the committee CEO Bruce Bond back to Stage for a few final words thank you Bob thank you guys uh I will say this was probably one of the most unvarnished conversations we've ever had up here on stage and uh it really was wonderful and I'd like to take this moment to thank our partners in this the dornside center for the political future and particularly kamiyakovan and uh Nicole pompilio you guys did a great job thank you so much for that we sure appreciate it and uh I'd like to thank you guys for giving us a little hope and inspiration on some things really appreciated the fact that you are friends and that came out and there was some humor we learned a ton and it was really interesting for us to see that we really do appreciate it thank you very much okay uh on on behalf of the center for the political future I want to thank James and reince and everybody here at USC at the bush school and on Zoom for participating in our 2022 warshaw conference uh as we finish let me invite students and audience members who are here to share their reactions and insights to people who didn't get to ask the question we have two different cameras set up in the courtyard outside go out there and speak your mind good night and have a great Thanksgiving all right thank you [Music] [Music] thank you