welcome everyone to winning in the shadows I'm Andy today we're going to look at Derk Henry over under 975 a half yards rushing for the upcoming upcoming 2024 2025 season let's take a look at what's going on here and right as we're getting into this guys if you could could hit the like button helps the algorithm out helps me out quite a bit um and leave me a comment tell me what you think about this play because I've got a pretty passionate play that I'm definitely going to play with my own money so let's take a look at Derk Henry's stats and I listen he's gone over this quite a bit like even last year Tennessee played 17 games no question about his durability 1,17 yards so he gets over this total 2022 gets over this total even in 2021 with eight games he gets 937 he's just like 40 yards off of this so in Tennessee though absolute bcow absolute B he's getting every single carry there's very little competition for any carries and this is a guy that has carried the ball 280 times last year 349 times the year before 219 in the season he only played eight I you get the picture this guy has a lot of wear and tear on his body he's not quite as fast and you can see his yards per carry 4.2 last year H we're starting to dip there a little bit but for me the biggest selling point on the under which is going to be my official play is going to be the under 975 and a half yards first off I don't think the Baltimore Ravens need Derek Henry to be the guy that gains all the yards and I'll I'll I'll show what's going on here which makes me believe that I think lar is going to have another good year passing the ball and I just don't think they depend on one running back and I'll show you what I mean by that so let's take a look at what's been going on with the Ravens last few seasons so 2023 Lamar Jackson 16 games 800 21 yards he's their leading rusher Gus Edwards played 17 games only 8810 yards so let's go to the 2022 regular season and again Lamar is their leading rusher JK Dobbins only plays eight games uh 520 Kenyan Drake plays 12 he only gets 482 we still don't have a running back that has gone over this 975 yard total go to 2021 here we go Lamar Jackson again 767 then there throwing out Devonte Freeman who's playing 16 games he's nowhere near this total so we have another season where there's no running back for the Ravens going over this total we'll go to 2020 Lamar Jackson gets over a thousand JK Dobbins plays 15 games he only gets 805 he's not even close we have another season where a running back does not go over this total 2019 we finally get a running back that goes over this total Lamar has 1,26 yards Mark Ingram plays 15 games gets over a th yards gets over this total by what is that 40 yards so 2019 we finally have one we go back to 2018 Gus Edwards 718 again another season you're getting the picture here 2017 Alex Collins just comes up a little bit short 2016 Terren West plays 16 games only 774 yards and we get to 2015 where we get Justin forset uh 641 uh javorius Allen man some of these these older these these names are kind of crazy 2014 we finally get Justin foret so since 2015 the Baltimore Ravens have had one running back get over this 975 and a half yard total is Derrik Henry GNA be the guy to do it maybe but you have an aging running back you got a quarterback that's way faster and you got a Baltimore Ravens team that spreads the ball out here my opinion is I think that Derrick Henry is just going to be a lot more valuable inside the 10 yard line I would take his over on touchdowns um I don't think the Ravens want to be running Lamar Jackson a lot inside the five yard line and when you have Derrick Henry why worry about it Derrick Henry doesn't quite look as fast as he normally did and trust me I live in Indianapolis I'm a Colts fan I watch Derrick Henry tear us to shreds uh the last few years but I gotta tell you last year it just didn't quite look like he he had that burst and with running backs when they start to fade they really really fade so I have an aging running back with a ton of wear and tail hair on his body going to a team that has had one running back go over this total since 2015 and me my personal belief is that he's going to score a ton of touchdowns and that's where his value is going to be in fantasy and with the Baltimore Ravens so the official play is going to be Derk Henry under 975 and a half yards our NFL Futures in week one pack is up that's over at wagertalk.com encourage everyone to go grab that our futures have been fantastic we've hit 71% of futures over the last year NFL included so what we're gon to do is we're going to put up one pack that has futures for the NFL but it's also going to get all of our plays for week one so smok and deal that's over at wagertalk.com but for today's free play Derrik Henry under 975 and a half yards rushing good luck on your plays hit the like button and subscribe we'll see everyone later