Watch Live: Latest tracking of Tropical Storm Francine

change until our 1 p.m. right now we're looking at it somewhere west of Marsh Island so kind of southwest of Lafayette moving Inland around 1:00 on Wednesday all right we we know you're going to keep watching it for us all through the evening thanks Chris and thank you for watching the WWL Louisiana news at 6:30 we'll see you back on Channel 4 for the news at 10 and until then have a great night [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] and good evening I'm chief meteorologist Chris Franklin we do have the 7:00 advisory on tropical storm Fran now no dramatic changes we did see the pressure fall a little bit it had been at 996 now at 993 so it is still intensifying albeit very slowly uh winds have remained the same now the Hurricane Center is saying North Northwest at 7 mil an hour but the cordinates at 21.1 North and 960 West the 4:00 coordinates were 24.0 and 96.0 so really it's moved only a tenth of a degree North so it's not really moving much at all that is expected the change as we get into the day tomorrow something we've been watching on satellite this is always very telling we've got the dry air notice the lack of thunderstorms on the southern southwestern and now even around the center of the storm you have stronger convection thunderstorms well removed from the center so while we do have the bands setting up we're not really getting that convection developing around the core which would indicate an intensifying storm and while it certainly did get better organized during the day last several hours it has been waning a bit with that now dry air we'll see if that is able to hold on now during the day tomorrow is really going to be what is telling we're still expecting this to become a hurricane possibly late tonight or early during the overnight hours early morning tomorrow by tomorrow midday and afternoon it should begin that path toward the Northeast at that point I think we're going to see one if it's able to intensify to a category two and two with that forward motion starting to increase we will have a much better idea of exactly where along the Louisiana coast we will see landfall and something I kind of need to actually widen out my little uh graphic here a bit if I can I just want to highlight the fact that at Wednesday 1:00 a.m. it becomes a category 2 Note 12 hours later right before landfall it is still a category 2 the thinking is if it is able to strengthen and maintain that strength it may able to battle what is going to be increasingly hostile conditions along the Northern Gulf Coast very dry air strong wind shear all would help to rip apart a weaker storm so if it is able to get stronger it would likely maintain that strength important to Note 100 mph and 100 mph winds here it would not be strengthening right up to the point of landfall it would likely kind of plateau or for a weaker storm maybe begin weakening before landfall that is what we're hoping on and really we're not going to know until we head into the day tomorrow tomorrow is going to be the very telling point of what this storm's future is we're also going to wait for the next model series whether they continue along this more Western envelope of the forecast path including the cone or the cone included right now the models had been a little bit more dramatic and one thing we usually don't see from the Hurricane Center is dramatic shifts they kind of take those into account in each model run and so if this were to be maintained for the 10:00 advisory tonight I would venture to say we will see the cone shift again to the West if it happens so we will see what these models do and actually we're going to get that information before 10:00 so I'll be posting the models online on social media accounts to let folks know maybe what we're about to see from the Hurricane Center as far as the winds go again those 65 mil an hour are really near the center or within some of those outer bands of some of the stronger storms in the buoys right now though and not too far away from the center not really supporting those winds that are being maintained so it looks like the wind field is still rather small and note on water vapor you see those bright intense storm tops they have collapsed during the day today one thing that is always telling with the tropical system is if we're able to get that nocturnal convection in other words do we see the fler thunderstorms during the night time and overnight hours if that happens then it it's indicating it's a strengthening storm but as I mentioned we have an increasingly hostile environment as you near the Gulf Coast this is what we're going to be encountering by Wednesday early morning so if it's able to maintain a two or uh achieve a to it may be able to kind of fight off this strong wind sheer as well as some very dry air which at the moment is already kind of plaguing the storm but even more so as it moves toward the northern Gulf Coast with that dry air kind of becoming wrapped around on the Southeastern and Eastern side that's the side that is really going to impact us not the core as we watch this motion it again if it stays a little bit more to our West we are avoiding the worst part of the storm and if we can get into this drier air we would also see more breaks in the rainfall and maybe we don't see those higher rainfall totals that are right now estimated four to six it probably a whole lot less than that I think one of the re one of the issues that will be our primary threat will be the winds depending upon the size of the Windfield we'll definitely see some tropical storm Force if not sustained winds then certainly wind gusts and that'll start probably early on Wednesday continuing and peaking during the evening at night of Wednesday before the storm is then fed up to our North and it is weakening so so during the day tomorrow we'll have the winds picking up and certainly some rainfall but the strongest winds the heaviest rain the greater threat for storm surge will be on Wednesday as the storm which is just off to our West here starts picking up those winds Inland and obviously a bit stronger the farther west you go a little bit weaker farther east so at the moment the greater threat from even the stronger winds maybe a little bit more removed to the west of Metro New Orleans but I still think we're going to see some wind Gus and as we know it doesn't take much to get the power outages these rainfall estimates and I really would call them estimates at this time we'll have to see what that dry air what the role plays in increasing or it should say decreasing those rainfall totals again another issue will be the storm surge we will see those uh um uh Heights above ground level most of us at about a foot above ground level and most of our Coastal communities everything outside of the hurricane risk reduction system I think are going to be okay a little bit higher notice as it piles into the lake out towards say St John toward around the manac area uh um u a little Landing that is right around there and then also toward Southern Tangi Madisonville the uh beo area and then also some Pockets a little bit farther Inland as some of that water starts racing up tabone and Barrett area Bay toward the H area probably about a foot down a little bit more Coastal tabone would be the uh 3 to six foot and then more west of Morgan cities where we could see pockets of 9 foot obviously as you get closer to Marsh Island and closer to where the center of the storm will be so we are quiet on radar and a fairly quiet evening tonight those rain chances start picking up along with a bit of a breeze during the day tomorrow more rain stronger winds and the coastal flooding concerns on Wednesday this storm is going to be very fast moving this storm is not Ida I know that was the last time we had a threat but this is not a repeat completely different track completely different storm completely different environment Ida had a perfect road to strengthening right out of the point in southeast Louisiana and a perfect road to continue intensifying we don't find that with Francine at all in fact it has a fairly hostile environment that it's going to have to overcome to really do anything in the next 36 hours and that really is going to be the window we watch tonight and into tomorrow will be the best chance of it organizing if it's not able to this should be a fairly weak storm at landfall if it is able to it will probably maintain that strength right up to the point in Southwestern Louisiana's coastline for now we're going to uh kind of wrap things up here we'll be watching this very closely and as I said follow me on social media because I will be posting the new model run before 10:00 so before the Hurricane Center issues their new track and we will see if that Trend West where continues or maybe if the models hold a little bit more to our West because again that would allow for Southeast Louisiana to avoid the worst of the storm which as of right now it still looks like we would avoid the worst of the storm I'm chief meteorologist Chris Franklin [Music] [Music]