How many winnable games will IU football have this season? | Indiana University podcast

it's another tough schedule for iu football this season so how many games can they realistically win you are locked on hoosiers your daily podcast on the indiana hoosiers part of the locked-on podcast network your team every day what is up guys it is thursday august 11th this is locked on hoosiers your one and only daily one-stop shop for everything iu athletics i'm your host as always jacob rude want to thank you guys for making lockdown hoosiers your first listen every single day we talked all last season about how tough iu schedule was one of the absolute toughest in the entire nation uh last season with the the gauntlet in the big ten east paired with a game against cincinnati and non-conference play the schedule's almost identical this season it is so a non-conference play so it's not going to be any easier so today i thought we would take a look at the schedule break the games up into tiers of winnable games toss-ups upset bids and games i use probably gonna have no chance in uh it led to some i think maybe some interesting um takes i guess from me i i tried to break these up it as maybe fairly as possible i'm always an optimist i tried to be as optimistic as i could about this but conceivably this could be a pretty tough year for indiana we're going to start with the good news we're going to start with the games that i think are the truly winnable games that winnable might not even be a strong enough word for it i think these are the games i you probably should be winning um especially the first two i tried to rank these uh within each kind of tier uh in terms of which games uh especially in this one like the first game i have listed that iu absolutely is winning is week two against idaho even last season when indiana honestly stunk uh they still beat idaho and beat them handily i would imagine it is going to be a similar case this year where uh indiana i think knock on wood they'll be a better team this season uh and idaho is not even fbs school so indiana should be handling that one easy i don't think that one's really even up for a debate same with the next one again indiana one at western kentucky maybe their best showing last season which is a low bar uh at least over the full course of a game i'm not even really sure i think the first half of the cincinnati game may maybe the first uh 25 minutes of that game with why you looked all season but over the course of the game maybe this was the best they looked they only had two wins so i'm not certain but they did go to western kentucky and win that game it was the best michael penick's looked by far and gave us a lot of optimism moving forward uh misplace optimism nonetheless so this season week three against kentucky or western kentucky is going to be a noon kickoff in bloomington again indiana i think is going to be a better team it's a game at home this time around the first three games of the season all at home for indiana the idaho game there is no trip to idaho for this one that will be home as well so those two games are almost must wins probably games that there's no excuse to be losing that one i only had three games in this category uh which is both an indication of how i feel um about this iu team but also how tough the schedule is the third game is probably the the most maybe controversial of them though vegas is on my side i will say i have illinois as the third most winnable game that is who indiana kicks the season off with on a friday night at 8am in bloomington september 2nd uh we're now about three weeks away i was looking over at my calendar there about three weeks away from this um i this is a very much a winnable game right now and this line is indiana is a five point favorite in this one i believe it was four points for quite a while it was not as high as five points uh so vegas agrees that indiana should go into this one favored the reason i put this third has as much to do with idaho and western kentucky being multiple levels worse than illinois but there is some uncertainty about what to expect from indiana this season um we just don't really know like there is a quarterback that is going to be playing that game that we have no idea and probably will not know until moments before the game there's an entire offense that is going to be together for the first time in a real game in that one so there's a lot of uncertainty in that but opening at home on a friday night as much as i despise the idea of a friday night game hopefully it leads to a big gish crowd i don't know how it'll conflict with high school football uh maybe in a state where it was kind of a bigger deal maybe i'm not sure but hoping for a biggest crowd under the lights at home start the season off right if you look at espn's fpi football power index indiana comes in at 68th illinois is behind them and 75th so they favor iu in this one as well that one though is much closer to being a toss-up than the other two the other two are must win games this one i do not i would not file it under must win at all i think indiana probably should win it and there will be some questions if they don't but not nearly as many questions if they do not be idaho or western kentucky ultimately though there's a pretty good chance and maybe even expectation that iu starts this season 3-0 halfway to bowl eligibility the problem is what awaits you after those first three games is far far far different than those first three games of the season and things get much much tougher for indiana we'll dive into the games that could be toss-ups that could determine whether indiana is a bowl team next season here in a moment if you haven't tried built bar puffs yet you're depriving yourself of one of life's greatest joys and guess what there is a new flavor delicious indulgent cookie dough covered in chocolate that's right built has done it again let me introduce you to your new favorite cookie dough chunk puffs they have a light and chewy texture real cookie dough 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on hoosiers your first listen every single day uh also be sure to subscribe to us over at um youtube as well sorry i was making a note on here i forgot to rank cincinnati in this list i was adding them quickly but be sure to subscribe to us over at youtube i've been starting to put up clips from our shows there as well especially from yesterday's show with jason jordan where we talked um kind of the fallout from missing out on a couple 2023 guys looking forward to some 2024 guys um so be sure to head on over there check out those clips if you have not uh seen the full show already as well you can dive into all of that now the over under for indiana this season on bet online is four wins i just told you and if you're a believer in those first three games being winnable games and that i you should start three and oh uh you only need two more games to go your way to hit the over now as we said very much the problem is that finding two more wins is going to be tough the over under as i'm looking now still set at four wins so you only need one more to not even lose money but it's gonna get it's gonna get interesting the next section i have is toss-ups and that has the most games in them that i realistically i think could go either way first game i have like i said i rank these from what i think are the most likely the least likely basically within each tier week seven versus maryland i'm not entirely certain what this maryland team is going to be there's a lot of um optimism for them uh for tiger viola he has had a lot of talk about him again espn fpi has them at six and a half wins as their projection uh so this is a team that is on paper coming into the season should be better than indiana it's a game in bloomington which is part of the reason i rank this high um and i until i see maryland out there kind of and see if they've taken this this step forward indiana has played them decently and played tag viola pretty well i'm kind of setting aside last year because things went so haywire at the end of the season that they weren't really playing anybody well outside of that they've played maryland well so i have some optimism there that iu can continue that trend again a home game on this one um we'll see how things shake out but i i'm kind of in a wait and see mode with this maryland team they kind of need to prove it uh that they're going to be a consistent team again this season because as i said fbi kind of has them as one of the best of the rest types they are 38th in the country you obviously have your top teams in the big ten east ohio state michigan state penn state are the top four rent teams maryland would come in next so i maybe iu is going to be battling them for kind of the best of the rest in this division we'll see how that plays out but heading into the year that's going to be a tough matchup on paper uh and maybe i'm giving them not giving them enough credit uh again i put a lot of this with it being a home game but we'll see kind of how that that plays out maybe one two three weeks into the season i'll feel differently based on how maryland is playing but right now i would say that is kind of the most favorable of the toss-ups though it is close with the next one i have uh the following week indiana will travel to maryland in week 8 october 22nd uh piscataway new jersey maybe this one should be the highest on the list uh really the deciding factor was it being a home versus a road game uh because iu is going to rutgers now rutgers generally i don't worry about too much even if they've given iu some frustrating losses and they beat the hell out of iu last season again late in the year where things had gone haywire i i'm not real again i'm not really sure what to make because greg schiano seems to be turning some things around there and seems to be having them on the right track at the same time espn fbi have them as the worst team in the big ten this upcoming season right there with northwestern so there's not a ton of separation in projected wins and losses between iu and rutgers it's 0.3 but they are separated by 20 or excuse me 14 spots just overall in the ranking um they're somewhat close basically so it i don't know i'm just uncertain road games rutgers has is kind of coming off just beating them down maybe revenge will be on the mind those two are the two that i could hear the the strongest argument for um for winnable games kind of within this section uh and the more i think about the more maybe i might move rutgers to the top of this as the more winnable of these two games though to me it's a toss-up within the toss-up section i think either one of these could be kind of one two and this one i think there's a gap to week four against nebraska look if you guys have listened to our blocked on big ten podcasts nebraska has been receiving an odd amount of credit coming into this season for a program that has done nothing under scott frost uh last season was a lot of close losses but there isn't a special distinction in the win-loss record of close losses ultimately they were all losses so it seems to be that they're kind of building off that the media some of these formulas are building off the fact that nebraska had some close losses bring a good chunk of that roster back and could potentially take a step forward for example uh they are second in the um big ten west in terms of fpi though they have a better chance of winning the division than anyone else so they're the division favorites by fpi i would imagine that has to do with schedules though i'm not certain how the math works out on that one regardless nebraska is seen as one of the best teams in the big ten west i don't buy it again more than anything scott frost is actually gonna have to do something productive at nebraska before i buy into him being the best team in the big ten west through three weeks we might have a sense of what that would look like for nebraska but uh coming into the season i am firmly out on them being this good in this big ten west so uh because of that and because of how indiana played against him last time they were in lincoln uh i think there's some room for optimism here especially if iu is coming into this game with a 3-0 record and a little bit of confidence a little bit of of swagger to them coming into this game um i think this is a win a very much a winnable game for indiana nebraska is going to be coming into this one um i don't believe or they open up uh against northwestern in ireland i believe for their big ten game but they'll be coming off a game against oklahoma they start off or they have oklahoma in their non-conference uh schedule so this is going to be interesting for nebraska early on to to play in this one and to see if they presumably are going to be able to bounce back assuming they lose to that oklahoma team so two teams that could be coming in on two different or two programs two teams that could be coming in on two different paths that i could see uh ending up being leading to a very winnable game for indiana the last one i have on this um is the purdue game to end the season truly i think it is a toss-up uh as is the case with any um rivalry game basically on paper again coming into the season espn fbi has purdue one spot in the big ten ahead of indiana a huge gap between their fpi actual ratings though they're at a 6.2 maryland's at a 6.9 nebraska's at an 8.6 just to give you some reference here ohio state's a 28 michigan's a 16 that gives you some frame of reference for kind of how these rankings this this formula is spitting out numbers because iu is at a negative point eight so there is a pretty healthy difference between purdue and indiana the difference there is equivalent to the difference between um wisconsin and michigan kind of at the top of the conference i mean it is a there's a big gap between these two teams but it's a rivalry game and anything goes in rivalry games um it's in bloomington iu certainly is going to want to get some payback for last season again where everything went haywire at the end of the year uh that's going to be on their mind they're not going to win the end of season like that again so uh this is this is a toss-up i think purdue is probably going to have the better team but there's a chance uh i'm probably pretty my new chance that iu heads into this game with a chance at bull eligibility more likely it could be a chance for iu to go into this game and keep purdue from going to a bowl game not that there needs to be extra motivation in a rivalry game but both of those things could factor into this one it'd be nice to get the old oak bucket back in bloomington but that one i think is truly a toss-up as is often the case in the rivalry games so what are the odds of iu pulling off an upset who could it come against in this season we'll take a look at that as we wrap up looking at the schedule here in a moment the hoosiers are obviously going to have lots of chances to pull off wins against ranked opponents as is often the case as is always the case in the big ten east but it's going to start in non-conference play most likely as indiana will host excuse me travel to cincinnati in week five these are all the games i put as upset bids um i i don't know how realistic any of these upset bids are the argument for cincinnati is that they're going to be with a new quarterback uh with desmond ritter having gone they're kind of coming off last season's uh big year there could potentially be some letdown they're not they are playing at arkansas but then they're playing kennesaw state and miami ohio and the two games after that again it could be indiana coming into this one uh i shouldn't indiana's probably not going into that nebraska game i mentioned earlier probably not going in undefeated because the cincinnati games in between here indiana could be going into that nebraska game three and one not undefeated but the cincinnati game is right before that so it should be a three-and-oh iu team going into not nebraska for this one but even then uh cincinnati probably gonna start the season ranked um we'll see how the the early non-conference schedule holds up i believe last year they had a bit of a scare uh in that um miami game uh or they struggled early on in one of those games miami or murray state uh coming into that indiana game they struggled against indiana but uh this game's going to be sold out i believe already at cincinnati that place is going to be rocking i don't feel great about this one but a lot of it depends on what cincinnati's able to do if they're able to build off that momentum from last season if there's a bit of a hangover kind of what the state of cincinnati is heading into this one next one is week 10 versus penn state i'm i don't think either of these penn state the the other one i include here is michigan state i'm not really overly confident in either one of those penn state is higher because it is a home game um iu beat penn state at home before um penn state's been kind of up and down and they've really faded at the end of seasons the last couple of years so maybe indiana catches them when they're doing when they're fading again the season able to to pull off another upset against penn state hopefully includes a play as epic as the reach in this one but i think penn state's going to be pretty good this season especially with sean clifford there i i don't know that they're going to have that kind of uh fading in late in the season uh and if that's the case if they're they're trying to finish out strong indiana might be a little more than a speed bump for them same goes with michigan state that's the penultimate game of the season for indiana that one's in east lansing i really like what mel tucker is doing with the spartans uh i think that they could be really good this season and moving forward and i do not want to be the team getting in the way of anything they're doing late in the season as they're trying to build momentum toward a bowl game of some sort i don't feel confident about that one the last two that i think indiana really i literally have this under the no chance category week six against michigan it will be at home indiana always plays michigan tough um especially when michigan comes in ranked iu is going to force us into overtime and then they're going to have a heart crushing loss of some sort where they fall just short at the goal line because that seems to be how it always is aside from that 2020 season that's just how these these things seem to play out against michigan uh so michigan seems to have turned a corner as a program uh last season again it could change they could look a lot different maybe last year was a fluke but i get the sense that they have in fact turned a corner and are ready to kind of compete among the best of them this season obviously the last one ohio state again if you guys have listened to locked on big ten especially today's episode we talk about iu football we talk about um the pro football focus all big ten team it featured a lot of buckeyes on it i think ohio state is far and away the best team in the big ten this season iu is going to columbus um and it's coming right after the the penn state game i don't feel great about this at all i cj stroud is amazing and i think it could look something similar to what last year's ohio state game look like if you're kind of looking at one small positive i you may not have the gauntlet kind of stretch of games that they did last season and and during spans uh throughout the years you're not like playing michigan ohio state back to back really depends on how good penn state and michigan state are because toughest stretcher indiana is going to be verse penn state at ohio state at michigan state late in the season if the penn state and michigan state are good that could be tough outside of that that maybe the at cincinnati at nebraska versus michigan could be a tough stretch as well but nothing compared to what they've had to go to and go through i should say in recent seasons we will before the season starts go through a more kind of definitive uh win-loss prediction of the schedule but i kind of wanted to put these in tears and get a sense of what this schedule is going to look like for indiana if you're a believer and then pulling off one of those toss-up wins one or two of those or pulling off an upset head on over to bed online throw some money on that over a four wins see if you can come out with a victory thanks again guys for making lockdown hoosiers your first listen every day we'll be back with you tomorrow uh talk a little bit more uh fall camp news from tom allen know what your team is up against across the big ten with lockdown big ten everyday host nate dickinson and the local experts have locked on take you across the big ten in 30 minutes make lockdown big ten your second listen locked on big ten make sure you guys are following us over on twitter at lo underscore hoosiers uh be sure to subscribe to the podcast wherever you listen to us at leave a quick rating and review helps us out a ton most importantly though guys make sure you have a terrific thursday in leo [Music] you