welcome to winning in the shadows I'm Andy let's talk Christian mcaffrey over under 1,150 rushing yards for the 20242 NFL season there's a lot going on here and I'll tell you why I like the under on Christian mcaffrey so when we look at his rushing totals he just had the monster year last year 16 games played got 272 carries rush for 1, 1459 yards by far his best rushing average as a pro 5.4 yards per carry obviously 49ers offensive line big part of that and when we look at the previous year he played 17 Games showing pretty good durability for a running back especially when the the three previous years in Carolina uh he was not on the field nearly as much so when we look at what happened to 2022 he averaged 4.7 yards with s Fran 4.6 yards for Carolina and I do think that's a little bit more realistic than that 5.4 uh carry that uh uh yards per carry that he had last year now do we expect Christian mcaffry to be playing 16 17 games history would say this is asking a lot of him uh seeing as how he was injured in 2021 and 22 and how many carries that he gets he's being put In Harm's Way quite a bit there's also something else going on with this play and I want to look at this quote from Kyle Shanahan that he had in June we have to protect Christian from himself he doesn't like to ever come out no matter what the situation is and I do think that's something we could protect him more with Kyle Shanahan also said um we have guys that can run the ball so I'm guessing we're going to see a little bit less of a workload from Christian mcaffrey and it makes sense the 49ers are Super Bowl or bust why would you want to run Christian mcaffrey into the ground in some meaningless um like fourth quarters in some of these regular season games so I think this is a really really big total for him to get over 1,150 yards we see in 2022 that he uh just came up a little bit short of this total and playing 17 games the combination of Carolina and San Francisco so the play on this is going to be the under if we get any type of injury and he misses any type uh any any length of games that he misses this Ender is gonna hit Kyle Shanahan coming out and saying we need to protect him from himself he never likes come out so we have guys that can run the ball so I think all signs are pointing to the under um I drafted him first in my fantasy football league last year and he was a it was a very very very it was a great draft pick in a great year uh but this year I'm going to temper expectations a little bit I think his workload comes down a little bit and he avoided injury for two years in a row and at the running back position uh that is a lot so uh Christian mcaffrey under 1,150 yards is going to be the play on the future and if you'd like to join our Discord channel to join in all of the conversation we've got free plays we've got discussion on all of our different sports it's free just go on go uh click on that link that is in the description and uh there's a link on the screen as well so thanks for joining if you haven't subscribed to the YouTube channel get notifications do that now uh we always have our UFC pfl breakdown videos and throughout the summer we're going to continue uh releasing our NFL Futures props we've already got a couple sack props from uh the sack Master himself Jim moo and I'll be releasing more of these Futures on individual player props so thanks very much hit the like button subscribe good luck in your place we'll see you every next video