Intro it is time for the first elimination final of the 2024 AFL final series now in this video over the next couple of minutes I'll be telling you exactly why I think the Hawks are going to get up Western Bulldogs vs Hawthorn Hawks Tip against the Western Bulldogs this week and a lot of it has to do around the scoring stats and ball movement efficiency of the Hawks now don't forget to subscribe to to our Channel if you want the best AFL and NRL Footy tips and a little later on we'll be throwing in some NBL and NFL there for you coming up very shortly on our Channel when those Seasons kick off later in September now let's get into it Hawthorne Hawks Western Bulldogs arguably two of the Team Form most informed teams of the AFL heading into the finals despite finishing in Sixth and seventh on the ladder so both teams have actually won six of their past seven games with just one small blemish in the run into the finals now the Western Bulldogs are coming into this game high on confidence they dusted the gws Giants in the final round of the season winning by just under 40 points but they are coming up against a Hawks team that are young and full of confidence and we know how dangerous that can can be it's been a bit of a fairy fairy tale story for the Hawthorne Hawks after losing yeah their first five matches of the season and then it was actually their win earlier in the year against the Western Bulldogs that started to build the momentum that has pushed them all the way into an unexpected final spot now the Hawks have Hawks ball movement stats been incredible moving the ball they ranked second in the AFL in disposal efficiency at 74.7% now they're moving the ball all the way from the back all the way forward and a lot of the time there is countless highlights where they move the ball so quickly that they're getting a free shot at goal or a clean mark inside 50 purely because of the pace and the support play coming from the back field so it's an incredible tactic that theyve found that has blasted teams now they're Hawthorn scoring statistics scoring Statistics over the last 7 weeks are absolutely incredible they're averaging 119.4 and just 62.4 points against per game giving them a scoring differential of 57.7 one points per game in that stretch now it's almost Unstoppable they had a really really tight loss just against gws in their one loss during that span but there I think that develops this young Hawks team even more they need to play they needed to play in those tough tight games they've played a few and been on both sides of the result this season which has built character and made them stronger so I'm backing the Hawks here to get up by a 1 to39 margin in this game and the interesting Stat or Team Total Tip the interesting line here is their team total at 80 and A2 points now they've kicked over 80 points in 12 of their past 13 games this season and with that average of 119 points in their past seven games I see them blowing past that with this game potentially being extremely high scoring from both teams with both yeah both clubs being really efficient in scoring at the moment but the Hawks definitely over 80 a half and I see them getting up by a 1 to39 margin in this game now importantly gamble responsibly and happy punting and good luck through this AFL final series