one of the offseason storylines across college football is Billy Napier is basically a dead man walking when you look at that November schedule for Florida it is brutal consensus number one most difficult schedule in college football but they get it started with a difficult matchup right out of the gate in the swamp against Miami uh who is supposed to be breaking out coming back to contend for an ACC Championship we got Steve Merill from waiter talk to help us break down all the week one lines across college football you catch Steve's work at wagertalk.com and of course his his exclusive under the radar selection right here at the voice of college football more details on that to come you will see that at the end of the video but we've got Steve here to break down Miami and Florida in Gainesville and again Miami a two and a half Point favorite Steve yeah it's crazy these teams have only played twice in the last couple decades so 2019 2013 and ' 08 you know you feel like they play every season but it's been a while since Co they haven't played um it is a big game obviously for both squads as you said Florida's schedule's hellacious I don't think they're going to be in contention but Miami Florida definitely could be with Florida State losing last week in week zero um you know obviously the ACC is wide open as we thought it would be we just we've talked about Clemson Georgia Clemson most likely will be 0 and one also as a two touchdown dog so you know Miami or Florida it's definitely got a path to the playoffs whether it's through the ACC or maybe an at large but they're going to have to win this game uh because this would be a bad loss for him especially non-conference I think the wrong team might be favorite though the odds makers actually currently have Miami of Florida about a two and a half Point favor they opened as high as three it's down to two and a half even see some twos out there but my database simulation 10,000 games run through on average has the Florida Gator winning outright by two and a half points so I do think there's some line value and if we can get that key number of plus three or more take a shot with Florida they're going to have a tough schedule down the stretch they're going to probably be worn out down the stretch but this is a winable game for Florida and I think the wrong team is favored right now this is certainly a situation Steve as I talk to college football fans every day where I think The Narrative of the two teams and the anticipation of what the record is going to be in November right after they play very different schedules has impacted the perception of this game these teams are not playing a narrative on Saturday they're not playing their November selves on Saturday they are playing as very even opponents and with Florida with the home field advantage yeah and it's also the third year for nap it might be his last year but it's his third year that's usually where coaches have their breakout season and they actually have a lot of returning production if you look at returning production numbers uh they're top 30 offense top 50 defensively as far as production like 24th overall in some rankings that i' use and look at so this is an experienced team as a home dog in week one and week On's could be kind of random you know neither team has played yet both teams have had all month to prepare uh and I do think this is a spot like you said where the the general consensus markets are overreacting uh it was three it's now two and a half obviously three is a really key number uh but if it is a public play maybe it gets pushed back up to that key number of three by Saturday Steve's under the radar selection exclusive here the voice of college football we so much appreciate Steve providing that for us you can catch it on patreon and as a YouTube member as well you'll get the details on that at the end of the video catch Steve's daily work NFL college football Wagers talk.com Steve as always appreciate you being here thanks Mark college football is even more exciting with some action on the line and the games are even better when you're cashing in and the voice of college football is the place to be to get the greatest value let's start with my picks 75% against the money line 58% against the spread I've got a 40-year track record in fact in 2023 at $100 played per game you would have nett it over $9,300 and guess what I'm just the warm-up act Steve Merill our Ace in the Hole show stopper from wager talk six years with the voice of college football over 30 years in the industry Steve gives us analysis on all the big games but you can't miss Steve's weekly under the radar pick which went 21 and5 against the spread the last two seasons I repeat 21 and5 against the spread you also get picks from some of our top analysts here at the voice of college football including Steve da and Matt zik become a YouTube channel member or patreon member for just $99 per month go to the main Channel on YouTube click join and select the betting tier do the same thing on patreon make 2024 a winner now