Hello friends The 2024 US presidential election is
approaching. Nate Silver's updated 2024 election map gives former president Donald Trump a
62% chance of winning a second term. Silver, founder of FiveThirtyEight, has been a leading
election analyst for more than a decade. Trump has been trailing his rival Harris for most of August,
but has recently gained a significant advantage. Don't forget to subscribe to our
channel before watching the video. We will start our analysis by filling in the safe
states. These are states where a candidate has a 99% or higher probability of winning. Safe states
for Democratic candidate Kamala Harris include California on the West Coast, Illinois in the
Midwest, and New York, Vermont, Massachusetts, Maryland, Maryland and the District of Columbia in
the Northeast. These states provide Harris with a total of 128 electoral college votes. The list
of safe states for Republican candidate Donald Trump is more extensive: Utah, Idaho, Wyoming,
North and South Dakota (excluding Nebraska's second district), Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri,
Arkansas, Louisiana, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia and Indiana. These states give
Trump a total of 103 electoral college votes. We will now look at the “likely” category, with
a probability of winning between 80% and 99%. For Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, this category
includes Washington and Oregon. In these states, Harris is expected to win, but the margin will not
be as large as in California. In Washington and Oregon, it will be between 10 and 20 points.
Colorado and New Mexico, whose political leanings have shifted to the left in recent
years, are also in this group. These states, which voted for George W. Bush in 2004, were won
by Joe Biden by double digits in 2020. In 2024, Harris is expected to win these states by
a smaller margin, possibly single digits. Minnesota's current governor Tim Walz's strong
support for Democratic candidate Kamala Harris has a significant impact on Minnesota's electoral
outlook. If Walz had not been the Democratic Vice Presidential candidate, the state would have
been much more competitive. Current projections give Harris an 84% chance of winning Minnesota.
Minnesota's electoral history is also remarkable: no Republican candidate has won here since
1972. The state's trend was broken only in 1984, when Ronald Reagan won against Walter Mondale.
Connecticut and Rhode Island are strong Democratic strongholds, although not as liberal as their
neighbor Massachusetts. Similarly, New Jersey and Delaware have a more moderate political profile
than their neighboring states. In Virginia, where no Republican candidate has won since
2004, Joe Biden won by a double-digit margin in 2020. According to current projections, Kamala
Harris has an 82.8% chance of winning Virginia. In Hawaii, the administration's handling of
the Maui fires was criticized. In Hawaii, where Hillary Clinton won by 32 points
in 2016, Donald Trump's share of the vote increased in 2020, despite Joe Biden's
nationwide success. Nevertheless, the state is likely to vote Democratic again in 2024.
In Maine, the situation is a bit more complicated: statewide, Kamala Harris has
an 85% chance of winning, while in the first district it is closer to 99%.
Among the states where Donald Trump is “likely” to win are Montana, Mississippi, South Carolina and
Alaska. In these states, Trump is almost certain to win a third term. According to forecasts, Trump
could lead by 15 points or more in these states. However, these states may not be as conservative
as Missouri, Wyoming, Indiana or West Virginia, but they still show a strong Republican leaning.
In the Midwest are the states of Iowa and Ohio. These two states are notable as critical
swing states that Trump flipped in favor of Republicans in 2016. Trump won Iowa by 9
points and Ohio by 8 points in 2016. Compared to Barack Obama's success in these states in
2012, these results show a significant political shift in the region. According to Nate Silver's
forecasts, Trump has a 95% chance of winning Iowa and a 97% chance of winning Ohio. Both states
are therefore in the “Republican” category. Texas has not voted for a Democratic candidate
since 1976. “Solid red” in 2012 with Mitt Romney's strong victory, Texas signaled a
change in 2016 when Trump won by less than 10 points. Despite expectations that Biden
could take Texas in 2020, Trump managed to win the state by a 6-point margin. Forecasts for
2024 suggest that Trump is likely to win Texas by a double-digit margin. According to Nate Silver's
analysis, Trump has a 91% chance of winning Texas. Once a key battleground where both parties
fought hard, Florida is no longer seen as a competitive state. In the 2020 elections,
Joe Biden lost Florida by a margin of 3.4%, worse than Hillary Clinton's performance in
2016. In the gubernatorial elections in 2022, the re-election of Republican Ron DeSantis by a huge
19-point margin reinforced the state's Republican leanings. According to Nate Silver's analysis,
the probability of Donald Trump winning Florida for a third time in 2024 is estimated at 88%.
Therefore, Florida is now a “likely red state”. We will assess the trending states where Harris
and Trump have a 60% to 80% probability of winning. These are states where both candidates
have a chance of winning, but one candidate has a slight edge. First, we briefly consider the
two remaining congressional districts. Trump is the favorite in Maine's second district, while
Harris has a slight advantage in Nebraska's second district. The only remaining swing state on the
map in the presidential race is New Hampshire. This state has four electoral college votes and
is where Hillary Clinton almost lost in 2016. New Hampshire was the second closest state in the
country in that election, behind Michigan. Today, New Hampshire, also known as the Granite State,
favors Democrats slightly more. Harris has a 70% chance of winning in New Hampshire.
There are seven big states left to decide the outcome of the election. While some of
these states lean more to the right and some more to the left, all are highly contested and
unpredictable. We will begin our examination of these critical states with North Carolina, which
has 16 electoral college votes. In North Carolina, Donald Trump is the clear favorite, with a 75%
chance of winning. The Democrats have won North Carolina only once since 1976, in 2008 under
Barack Obama. North Carolina will therefore be the first red state that leans Republican.
The situation in Georgia is different from North Carolina. Trump has a 67% chance of winning this
state. Trump is the clear favorite in Georgia, known as the “Peach State”. In the 2020 elections,
Joe Biden won this state by a very small margin. This is a very different picture compared to
four years ago and puts Trump in a much more advantageous position. As a result, with
Trump's 67% chance of winning in Georgia, the state is trending in the Republican category.
Arizona underwent a similar transformation to Georgia in the 2020 elections. According to the
predictions of renowned analyst Nate Silver, Trump has a two-thirds chance of winning
Arizona again. As it can be recalled, Trump won Arizona eight years ago by a margin of
about 4 points. Therefore, Arizona, like Georgia, is considered a leaning Republican state.
Before moving to the Midwest, we will examine Nevada, which has 6 electoral college
votes. Nevada is classified as a Tilt state, which means that either Harris or Trump has
a 50% to 60% chance of winning. According to Nate Silver's analysis, Donald Trump has
a 59% chance of winning Nevada. However, it is important to note that Nevada has
consistently voted for Democrats since 2004. Pennsylvania is one of the most critical states of
the election with 19 electoral college votes. The fact that Joe Biden was born in Pennsylvania
and carried this connection was considered an advantage for the Democrats. But the fact that
KLA Harris does not carry this personal connection changes the dynamics of the state. Pennsylvania
is so important that if Trump wins the state, it could put Trump in the White House for a
second term, even if Harris wins Nevada and Arizona. According to current projections, Trump
has a 61.7% chance of winning. Pennsylvania is therefore in the trending red category.
The last two critical states remaining on the electoral map are Wisconsin and Michigan.
The results of these two states are expected to be very close. KLA Harris' choice of Tim Walz as
running mate gives a small advantage for Democrats in Wisconsin. Traditionally seen as the most
conservative state among the trio of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, the addition of
Walz changes that balance. According to Nate Silver's projections, KLA Harris was leading
in these two states some time ago. However, recent developments have put Donald Trump ahead.
Trump has a 52% chance of winning in Wisconsin. In Michigan, Trump's chances look slightly
better. The betting markets in Michigan paint a worrying picture for Harris. About two weeks ago,
Harris's chances of winning the state were 66%, while now they have fallen to just over 50%.
Current projections for the 2024 elections put Trump on track to win all contested states
and receive a total of 312 electoral college votes. In contrast, KLA Harris is estimated
to receive 226 electoral college votes. You can write your thoughts on the
November elections in the comments.