SHOCKING New Polls (POST-DEBATE) 2024 LATEST: Trump vs Harris

when you drill down to the basics elections are one on two things The Vibes and the fundamentals so we have a guy to talk about them both our friend Cliff young is the president of poing at IPOs he's back up late with me on the final five to talk about this and more welcome back it's great to be here so uh The Vibes it's it's all about what what what people feel it's not necessarily what's based in truth and based in reality it's just how they feel it's all about the energy it's all about the mobilization of the base and that is Harris right now we have uh I I don't think we've gotten a full look at the numbers uh from the last time you were in here because obviously this this race has changed dramatically this right now is uh the polling averages and and just what are we seeing here yeah this is just a trend over the last bit of the year right this is the aggregate of all the polls not just ipsos uh and what we're looking at is basically Harris jumping after she entered and Biden left um these are the Vibes right because there's nothing else but that energy that has propelled her and this is sort of sort of where we are the National level we're basically at two points uh advantage to Harris and that's like I said is a function of enthusiasm when the gulf between these two it really uh illustrates the lack of uh or or really the the massive number of undecideds we've seen that may be taking shape at this point in the race yeah we're starting to lose them a bit right people are beginning to sort of either decide uh who they're going to vote for or not decide not to vote here we see actually after the bit you know the gulf between Trump and Biden only grow so this was the debate right about here exactly okay uh so we can talk about the national numbers all we want but in the end it's only going to come down to a couple of States yeah a few States we have four they're typically six swing States but here we're looking at Georgia Michigan Arizona Wisconsin There's also Pennsylvania um and and also Pennsylvania many times Nevada and we just wanted to show the same thing for the most part here that um after Biden pulls out there's this jump in the polls for Harris some states she does better some states she does worse but in all of them she improves it looks like at Michigan and Wisconsin because it's that that blue wall that Democrats enjoyed up until 2016 where if you win Michigan Wisconsin and Minnesota you st had a pretty good chance of winning the election yeah exactly before Biden stepped out we basically said the Democrats had to win those three states yeah right now the map is opened a bit uh we don't know how long that will last but it looks like Harris has more options you know and just not to say anything that we're talking about here today but in Arizona I mean you have these these National or the these Senate races as well that we may see one result on the state level for president but another uh on the Senate level based on whoever's running in those races all right let's move on to uh who's going to vote out there yeah and here once again we want to reinforce The Vibes again and let's just focus on the Democrats especially June compared to August or now we basically see a huge spike in Democratic enthusiasm this is once again is Biden stepping down and Harris stepping in I I like this too because you're also seeing an uptick on the Republican side as well as if that motivated uh Trump voters as well yeah you also have a Shoring up because we're getting closer to election day and people are beginning to pay more attention Okay so in terms of issues right now there are uh some people are saying it's a about the economy some people are saying it's about immigration I mean there are a lot of a lot of things out there but what's on people's minds there a whole smorgas board right now but it's it's really about inflation inflation inflation both at the national level as well at the swing state level look at that that's number one by far the second place issue is immigration we're hearing it all over the place right and lastly you know in third place we're hearing and in a lot about political extremism and polarization I'll tell you what interests me on this as you look at this and abortion which Democrats were really Bank on being a pivotal issue and for some people it really will be it's at 13% it's not this huge monolithic issue that I think a lot of Democrats were banking on it being well it's not the number one issue right but it is a mobilizer and in many cases when people say um they want to protect democracy they're worried about polarization they're really talking about abortion once again it reinforces Harris's credibility because she's strong on it and it might mean a half a point um in these swing States and that means a lot that's all that matters and in terms of those swing States some of the issues that are motivating them once again number one issue is the economy and inflation and who wins on that it's basically Trump look at that 42% versus Harris Harris's 35 um she she bit into the lead she was able to you know narrow the lead a bit it was about 14 points with Biden um this is the issue in my my opinion obviously we had the debate coming up and I'm really looking at that yeah to what extent she can make the case for inflation versus Trump so under Healthcare would would you figure uh women's right issues abortion into that or is that about access to healthcare yeah this is access to healthcare we don't have abortion here specifically because it wasn't one of the top issues yeah but ultimately it's all about the economy the economy and the economy and and what's fascinating about this number is we've had election Cycles 92 with Clinton and Bush uh National healthc care we had it with Obama and and you it's still a topic we're talking about as a country right now about huge issue it's very expensive for people all right there's been a word that's been uh it's entered the Lexicon in a political sense weird Tim Walls was the one who really I think got onto the national conscience because he started saying Republicans are weird they're weird usually it's Trump that can paint his opponents in a negative way the Democrats say both Harris and Waltz have done a a really good job efficient job in painting Trump as ultimately weird uh look at that 25% think camela is weird 39% think that Trump is weird and look at the number of Democrats 81% that think of trump as weird it's a motivating factor and once again the other point about the debate tomorrow the debate's really important um in really defining I believe the outcome and I'm really looking at whether Harris can weather the storm okay and can she take sort of a beating on these sort of um at home attacks and to what extent she can she um punch back uh in that in that uh give and go in the debate on the end there you had talk about the independence and this really this is crucial in a lot of these states a lot of these swing states you have people who don't want to associate themselves with either political party and in this case Trump has the edge yeah Trump is the edge of who Weir the edge of the negative which is weird also among Independence all about inflation inflation inflation that's why the Harris campaign is really focused on that the Trump campaign hasn't to date I'll tell you what I I think in the end we're all a little weird in some way shape or form I think that's you know that's how we get our quirks in it's not always a bad thing it's not always a bad thing how quickly after the debate tomorrow we going to start seeing some numbers about how people I think the next day and that weekend we're going see a whole slew of polls we'll actually have two coming out I think you know middle of next week we'll know to what extent was she able to hold hold her lead or not all right Cliff Young from rip good to see you again man thanks for coming in always appreciate it final five is back after this when it comes to election analysis it's essential to break things down into two critical components The Vibes and the fundamentals now when we talk about Vibes it's really about how people feel the energy the momentum and the emotional climate surrounding a candidate this often has little to do with facts or policy and everything to do with perception voters make decisions based on who resonates with them emotionally and that's powerful force in politics on the other side the fundamentals are the concrete factors like polling data campaign finance and turnout efforts you can have all the Vibes in the world but without strong fundamentals a campaign May falter what's interesting in the current political climate is the delicate balance between these two factors for instance KLA Harris has been riding a wave of positive energy Vibes ever since Biden stepped down and she stepped up you can see this in the polling numbers which show a surge of enthusiasm for her in addition to the economy immigration has surfaced as a another significant topic ranking second on many voters priority lists Trump has consistently made this a central point in his campaigns and it continues to resonate with a substantial portion of his base for Harris threading the needle on immigration will be a challenge while she appeals to more Progressive voters she also needs to find a way to reassure moderates and Independence that she can manage border security and immigration reform in a way that feels both Humane and effective ultimately this election like many before it is about what voters feel versus what they know the energy surrounding a candidate the momentum they build and how they mobilize their base are all critical yet they also need to provide Clear actionable Solutions to the most pressing issues of the day solutions that convince voters they can govern effectively as we approach the debates in the final stretch of the campaign it will be interesting to see how Harris and Trump each handle the pressing economic issues Will Harris be able to make a compelling case that she can tackle inflation and Rising costs more effectively than Trump can Trump maintain his lead on economic issues while fending off criticisms about his past legal troubles and controversial rhetoric at the end of the day elections are about winning hearts and Minds it's a delicate dance between the emotional and the Practical between The Vibes and the fundamentals only time will tell which candidate can strike the right balance to win over a divided electorate so what do you think let us know in the comments below don't forget to like And subscribe for more in-depth discussions on global politics