Polling guru Nate Silver predicts Trump has 64% chance of winning the Electoral College in latest

polling Guru Nate silver predicts Trump has 60 for per chance of winning the Electoral College in latest forecast polling Guru Nate silver and his election prediction model gave Donald Trump a 63.8% chance of winning the Electoral College in an update to his latest election forecast on Sunday after an ytc and a college poll found the former president leading vice president CA Harris by 1 percentage Point Harris has come out ahead in several National polls and swing state polls since taking over the top of the ticket however the results of the new nyt Sienna College poll according to Silver show that the results of the poll confirmed his election Marvel's view that there was a shift in momentum in the race the nyt Sienna College poll also found more voters said Harris is too liberal or Progressive on key policy issues than voters who said they considered Trump to be too conservative according to his model Harris has just a 36% chance of winning the Electoral College and overall leads Trump by 2.5 points in Silver's National polling average a new New York Times Sienna College poll this morning contained excellent news for Donald Trump showing him one point ahead in a head-to-head matchup against CA Harris and two points up with minor candidates included this is one of our highest rated pollsters so it has a fair amount of influence on the numbers reducing Harris's lead in our national polling average to 2.5 points which would put her in dangerous territory in the Electoral College silver wrote in the update at 11:00 a.m. on Sunday silver initially wrote on Wednesday that Trump's chances of winning the Electoral College have increased from 52.4% to 58.2% since the end of August Harris odds had decreased from 47.3% to 41.6% in that same time frame silver also noted that if Harris performed well in the debate the nyt poll might not matter the good news for Harris is that there's a debate on Tuesday and if she turns in a strong performance nobody is going to care so much about the times poll we'll have a longer narrative update on the state of the race coming later today he wrote. Sila also said on Wednesday that Michigan and Pennsylvania both key swing States might prove to be a problem for her in PA our polling averages had Harris plus 1.8 pred DNC but it's now Harris plus 1.0 that's before any convention bounce adjustment which is implemented at a later stage of the model in me the polling average has fallen from Harris Plus 3.1 pred DNC to Harris plus 1.9 now he wrote on X I'm not quite sure how Harris is supposed to spin her way out of this perception silver wrote noting that a high percentage of Voters said they don't know what Harris stands for in the poll suggesting there was room to improve on those numbers but Harris also blew one big opportunity to T to the center with her selection of Tim wals rather than Josh Shapiro that a tiny minority of progressives objected to Shapiro was an argument in Shapiro's favor if anything I think walls was a decent enough pick on his own merits but given an opportunity to offer a tangible signal of the direction her presidency was headed she reverted to 2019 mode silver wrote