Hurricane Warnings Issued | Caribbean and Bahamas Forecast For Tuesday September 10th 2024

Francine continues to track closer to the gulf coast of the United States where hurricane conditions in places like New Orleans are possible your forecast across the Caribbean and the Bahamas starts right now this is med Mundo hi friends Rusty back here at media Mundo on a Tuesday great to see you hope you're doing well coming up in this video I've got all the no information on Francine what's going on with the storm right now the changes in the forecast we'll look at some active weather today across their area including portions of Puerto Rico and the US and British Virgin Islands and two areas in the Atlantic with potential tropical development you all love to hear from you guys let me know in the comments section below what's been happening in your area what the weather has been like or of course you just want to say hi we are going to start this video all things Francine we'll talk about what's happening with the storm right now and look at the forecast we'll then get into what's happening across the rest of the Caribbean for today your Island by Island rainfall forecast in those areas those disturbances in the Atlantic as of the 400 p.m. central daylight time Tuesday advisory from the Hurricane Center francen still a tropical storm winds are 65 miles hour so it has not strengthened as far as maximum winds in the last 24 hours that of course is great news but Francine is still forecast to become a hurricane either later tonight or early on Wednesday looking at the satellite imagery Francine ingested a little bit of drier air earlier today which kind of capped that that strengthening and didn't allow it to strengthen but over the last couple of frames you see these whites here near the center of circulation at is deeper convection beginning to develop all signs point uh that Francine will continue to grow continue to strengthen I mean right now on satellite imagery it looks like a very healthy mature high-end tropical storm and could be teetering on Hurricane strength relatively quickly now there's a couple of good pieces of news because Francine has not gotten any stronger it is now not forecast to become a category 2 hurricane but it is still forecast to be a higher end category 1 as it moves closer to the Louisiana Coastline later in the day on Wednesday we'll get into the forecast of this coming up in a second but the latest statistics of Francine look like this 65 mph sustained winds 987 milar pressure so even though Francine hasn't gotten any stronger as far as winds the pressure has dropped by 9 milar since this time yesterday it's a deepening storm that means more than likely those winds will start to shoot up here momentarily Northeast movement at 10 mph located 360 Mi to the southwest of Morgan City Louisiana these are the current watches and warnings that are in effect Hurricane Warning is in effect from Cameron Louisiana East to Grand Isle we have a hurricane watch for the Metro New Orleans area that includes Lake pona train and Lake moral these same areas are also under tropical storm warnings so for Metro New Orleans a uh tropical storm warning means tropical storm conditions are likely a hurricane watch means hurricane conditions are possible tropical storm warnings are then extended on either side of those from High Island Texas to Cameron Louisiana and from Grand a Louisiana East to the Alabama Florida border before we go any further I do want to let you know I am going to be covering Francine live here at media Mundo so make sure you're subscriber you have those notifications on because I'll be doing a live stream tracking Francine moving into Louisiana tomorrow don't have a specific time as of yet it will all depend of course on the forward speed of friend scene and exactly where it's going to be going but that's why you want those notifications on for when I go live so again we'll have live webcams we'll have our live chat up I'll be tracking it for you live we'll be interacting so join me here at medium Mundo for that after this video our 247 radar will be coming back online as well so in between these videos and before that live stream you can track Fran scene for yourself here at media Moon look for that in the live chat so let's talk about some of the changes here to the intensity in the track again the intensity is good because it's now forecast to stay a cat one with Winds of 90 mph there has been a shift East in the track it's been a little bit more than subtle uh but I don't expect it to change much more because the steering currents are kind of now locked in from here on out this time yesterday that Center Line was over Lafayette now it's a little bit more over Franklin kind of towards H and on the Far Eastern envelope of this cone of uncertainty now includes the Metro New Orleans area these are the spaghetti plots notice they're kind of right down that center line now the trend has been over the last 24 hours for the models to shift Francine slightly farther east where more of Southeast Louisiana would see the direct impacts places like Grand Isle in hom and New Orleans itself and a little bit better news for places like Lafayette New Iberia areas okay but again it's not a huge track East but this does put New Orleans a little bit more in the area of concern If This Were to take the center line New Orleans would stay on the Eastern dirty side of the storm so we would have to watch out for East to Southeast winds that could bring in some very good storm surge into this area and a tremendous amount of rain the forecast is for 4 to 8 in but locally up to 12 in of rain now if you live in these areas you need to be getting done with your preparations either tonight or very early on Wednesday the weather is going to really start to go downhill throughout the day on Wednesday obviously the winds are already freshening up outside right now but we're going to have all modes of impact including the potential for some tornado activity with the squalls that come on Shore so let's talk about the forecast now we're going to look at a lot of different models first one I want to look at is our her model this is our high resolution rapid refresh model give me just one second second here to load it up uh I love this model in these kinds of instances because it updates hourly okay so it's going to give us a lot of real time information if you will again the rings that you see are kind of the Rings of the potential wins based off of the models but let's take a look at this her model we'll take a look at the timing and the intensity out of this as well this model has also taken that Trend to shift Francine a little bit farther off towards the east now a couple of notes Here all the models have Francine encountering Shear a few hours before it makes landfall in Louisiana whether that's the South Central or the southeast side of the state so more than likely the peak intensity of Francine will actually occur prior to landfall the storm will either hold its intensity or actually weaken a little bit as it moves closer to closer Louisiana that's great news because this is not going to be a storm that tries to bomb out at the last minute and get stronger and stronger more than likely right about here just after lunch on Wednesday is when Francine will be its strongest and you notice in the her we start to lose a little bit of that eye a bit here as it Encounters this year the forecast is for very rapid weakening as it moves on Shore it's going to kind of blow its top and expand out like this and not have a very deep low level Center of circulation just north of New Orleans but obviously for Southeast Louisiana the impacts will still be significant but I just want to point out that more than likely the storm will either be holding its intensity or actually slowly decreasing in intensity as it begins to move on Shore now the impacts will begin to be felt here fairly early on Wednesday midday midm morning into the early afternoon hours and the brunt of the storm beginning midafternoon but deeper into the afternoon especially the evening hours landfall potentially again early evening sometime around there don't really want to pinpoint it as of yet uh but viously the weather going downhill rapidly in this area throughout the day on Wednesday with hurricane conditions likely if we take a look at the winds associated with this her model going to Loop this up uh you'll notice that that Trend that I mentioned about it peaking before landfall uh will be here with the model and again this thing updates every hour so sometimes we catch mid runs but it looks like we're good to go here with a full model run so let me pause this right about here here okay and then we'll stair step this up so if we see these like those yellows right about there again this is that same time frame I mentioned right around noon on Wednesday this is kind of the peak of Francine right around 90 mph winds exactly what the Hurricane Center has this peaking at that dot right there is a 90 mile an hour mark from the Hurricane Center if we go a little bit further in time into the afternoon notice we start to lose some of those yellows we still have hurricane winds but they're a little bit weaker okay I mean at least it's okay news it's not the worst case scenario but again you know Grand Isle and H and New Orleans uh will all more than likely see uh lowend hurricane force wind gusts or even higher than that right so this is now 7:00 let's see what those winds look like in Southeast Louisiana near Grand Isle these are sustained winds I want to be clear these are sustained winds and we have some near hurricane Force coming in there okay and gusts will obviously be a lot higher than that and then those winds go over right over Lake Ponch train and other areas so we take a look at this near Metro New Orleans sustain Winds of over 60 that's why you under a tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch I'll expand this view out that Center Line kind of goes right up towards the Hattisburg area in Mississippi now again on the Eastern side that's going to be the strongest winds the highest storm surch so Coastal Mississippi could obviously feel some direct strong impacts as well even as far east as Mobile Alabama even in the southwest Louisiana storm surge could still be an issue but obviously the Centerline track in areas East will have the brunt of the heaviest rain the strongest winds the highest storm surge and on the east side to that tornado potential with the rotating storms these storms obviously have some inherent rotation associated with it when we look at the European model it's all about the same it's slightly west from the her but it has also subtly shifted East and pretty much all the models have done that they're a little bit farther east than what they were yesterday the European model has this coming in late in the day on Wednesday Wednesday evening as a hurricane half a model it's is about the same half say model is a Little Bit Stronger right about here it actually makes it very briefly a category 3 I don't buy that I don't buy that rapid deep strength thing it's not out of the question but again the forecast from the Hurricane Center has this as a peak 90 mph storm either holding that strength or slowly weakening as it moves into the southeast side of Louisiana take myself off screen you look at the bottom right hand side of your screen you'll see that 115 Peak very quickly right up out there and then weekends after that okay so again all the models have wind shear impacting this storm before landfall hopefully knocking it down a bit before it does at least that is a decent piece of news this is not as good the storm surge is going to be a huge issue guys I mentioned in yesterday's video Louisiana's coastline is a receding Coast it means that the Gulf of Mexico is reclaiming the coast it's swampy it's marshy uh there's not a lot of solid land to stop this storm Surge from going deep Inland and that's going to be a problem because you're looking at a 5 to 10ft storm surge for South Central Louisiana including a Vermilion Bay of 5 to 10 ft even as far east of the mouth of the Mississippi River including gr Isle 4 to 7 it's a 3 to 5ft storm surge possible for like pona train it's a 2 to 4ft storm surge all the way towards Mobile Bay so again Coastal uh Mississippi buuy Gulfport pasal gou Bay St Louis 3 to 5ft storm surge two to 4ot towards Mobile Bay you've got a 3 to five back towards the bean pass you've got a 2 to four towards High Island and a 1 to three for coal Texas including Galviston Bay now look we can handle one right we just don't want to see that three but 5 to 10 in this area is going to be a major major problem all right please check in with your local officials if there are evacuation orders please hold heed those from your local officials as well uh the waves are going to be ridiculous UL in the Northwest Gulf of Mexico uh more than likely over 25 ft for some time and you can see that now obviously that's not the wave heights we're going to have as it comes on Shore but in the open Waters of the Northwest Gulf of Mexico again bottom right hand side of your screen I've got a peak on the model there of a 28 foot Seas all right extremely rough surface SE conditions here's the great news for the live stream tomorrow we've got all this buoy data we've got these oil platforms out there we're going to have a lot of dense uh uh weather information coming out of the Northwest Gulf and I'm going to be very curious to see what some of the wave heights are going to be but that's just another impact for some of these areas obviously one of the other huge impacts is going to be the rainfall this is the GFS model rainfall and let me dump off some of these numbers here but along this track right in line with what the Hurricane Center official forecast 48 Ines locally up to 12 we see that foot of rain right along this Center Line Franklin H Tibido 7 New Iberia 5 to six I don't think we're going to get as lucky here in the Grand Isle area where're are you Grand Isle to only see three four it's more than likely going to be six plus Metro New Orleans 5 six7 towards Hammond 78 Baton Rouge five Sidell five and Mississippi five buuy five Waveland five look we're all right in line here right 4 to8 but locally higher maybe even up to 12 in of rain going to be a huge issue when you add in the fact and I mentioned yesterday's video as well that the City of New Orleans is below sea level you've got Lake Pon train on one side you've got the Mississippi River on the other side and the Fishbowl down below is the City of New Orleans they have a tough enough time with good thunderstorms in the summer months in the afternoon hours let alone a storm that's going to bring 4 to8 inches in in a quick time and potentially a storm surge as well so flooding is going to be a big problem in Southeast Louisiana including Metro New Orleans as well all right guys before we get into the rest of the forecast if you want to do me a real quick favor small payback I'd appreciate you guys liking this video right now if you haven't subscribed to mey Mundo you want these latest forecast click that subscribe button right now thank you for sharing this with your family and friends again appreciate other ways to support the channel via our memberships that's the join button they're just 9 9 cents a month the super thinks and other ways you can find in the description below we're going to now get into the forecast for the rest of our area and I appreciate all of our friends sticking around here we've had some pretty active weather here so let's go back to this product put this into motion uh first area I want to start off with is what's happening right now in the US and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico because it has been a very wet stormy day we've had flood warnings we've had special Marine advisories that's the polygons you see in blue we've had special weather statements for some really nasty storms at the hour the most active weather right now is over the US uh Virgin Islands including St Croy where we have a flash flood warning in effect for the entire Island but we've had numerous flash flood warnings and you'll see those pop up here in green through portions of Puerto Rico including the San Juan area the yellows have been special weather statements which is just kind of one category below a severe thunderstorm warning and these large polygons in blue are special Marine warnings and we've had those through most of Eastern Puerto Rico the US and the British Virgin Islands what do you say we take a live look at the radar here out of Puerto Rico and see what's happening right now look at all of the rain that is over St Croy over St Thomas over St John over Yos van djk over road to torta you can't even see the outlines of the islands Virgin Gorda up towards anag extremely heavy rainfall localized flooding continues in these spots this is that sheer axis that was over the Lesser in tiles yesterday that has moved off towards the west and has brought a considerable amount of rain so please be advised that in these areas flash flooding could continue here the remainder of this Tuesday late afternoon into the evening hours and potenti redeveloping in some spots on our Wednesday as well but that's just a huge swath of very heavy rain across that area at this point in time go over to our enhanced satellite imagery again put this back into motion now you can see that we have these clouds going in different directions that is actually Confluence here we're getting a lot of lift in the atmosphere in a north to south fashion over these areas it's been drier today over most of the Lesser and tiles but some of this has back built back over places like Anguilla and St Martin and S St eaus and Stacia St Barts uh St kit and nevas all the saints Barbuda Antiga monserat all of these areas again have had uh some very heavy rainfall totals in spots okay not as widespread as Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands but some of that moisture is trying to move back off towards the east guadaloop Dominica martinque isolated showers and storms St Lua St Vincent and the Grenadines Barbados we've had some active air weather in this area there was a flash flood watch in effect for portions of Barbados for today more moisture developing over Trinidad and Tobago as well and some of this will try and move off towards newa esparta ABC islands look to be relatively dry thunder storms have redeveloped this afternoon over portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti you can see those storms in the southern sides of the island moving off towards the South few storms over Cuba we've had some healthy storms over portions of Jamaica for today hopefully getting a few storms near the Kingston area decent lightning strikes as well here let me bring up the lightning data let's see here there we go live lightning data here at a medium Mundo pretty healthy lightning strikes if you live in Jamaica you had a couple of storms for today let me know but hopefully if nothing else it cooled you off a little bit and more could try be moving off the Southeast coast of Cuba we've been quiet in the Cayman Islands for today some of those storms trying to work their way in but more than likely not it's actually been a little bit drier through the Yucatan on this Tuesday just a few isolated showers and storms even towards Biz Honduras and Nicaragua few storms moving in there we've had a couple of storms over Panama and Costa Rica and my friends in the Bahamas for today have been relatively quiet we're just getting a few storms to try and work their way back into this area as of now what do you say we take a look at the radar there real quick few storms over Andros uh Grand Bahama biny Freeport Lucaya Walker's key couple of scattered showers and storms in those areas okay so now we're going to get into the two disturbances in the Atlantic first of all this one here is invest 92l okay looks okay right now on imagery doesn't it right this is the one that's going to be moving du West but all the models have actually tried to weaken this before it gets to the ler and tiles so even though this one looks pretty good right now the Hurricane Center has actually dropped the chance of development it's gone from an orange area down to a yellow area obviously it's something I'm going to be monitoring for our friends in the LeRon Tilles the Virgin Islands in Puerto Rico this is the one where we've got this one here then we've got the invest area here there's all kinds of things going on here this is new invest 93l by the way way out here okay this is the one that more than likely will be become a storm and maybe our next name storm by the way but should be gaining far enough latitude North where we're not going to have to worry about it for our area should be a fish storm if anything else let me show you the GFS model I'm going to extend this out over the whole week ahead and we'll take a look at what these storms are going to do now sorry about that a little too close we'll deal with the area in yellow first because it's closest to us here's the GFS running you don't see much after the next couple days right there it is right now but it slowly Fades out as it tries to get to the Lesser Antilles it is due West more because it's a shallow surface-based system and the easterly trades are going to push it in so this could bring more wet weather to the Lesser Antilles in general but as far as an actual low level Center of circulation where we'd have a depression or a storm doesn't look to be the case even though again it looks relative healthy on satellite imagery this is the one that more than likely is going to wrap up and become our next storm but again it's gaining latitude fairly quickly should be a fish storm out of this all right could be a pretty small compact storm as well Bermuda by the way could get hit with some healthy rain over the next few days as well when we look at the GFS model of these systems again nothing is extremely close to the lern Tilles all right still on the Far Western out Liars it's a possibility but the cluster of this has it recurving quicker to the north obviously for our friends here from Antiga and Barbuda to Barbados and Trinidad and Tobago throughout the islands Puerto Rico the virgines I'll keep a really close eye on it but again most of the ensembles on the GFS bring it North now this is 92l and I hope you have the speakers up and listening to me because obviously this looks threatening does it but you notice that all these lines are basically gray they're very very weak and you notice that that line here doesn't go any farther west than this because more than likely this basically Blows Its Top before it gets to the lern Tilles all right but the reason why it's due West now is because it's such a weak shallow storm that the trade winds we're going to try and push to the islands all right so other than that when I get back over to the N we're going to get over to the island by Island forecast as well so let me pop up the name I've been using every single model here kind of love it to be honest just trying to show you guys all the best information I can so over the next couple of days again active weather could persist Across the Western CES Puerto Rico in the US and British Virgin Islands some of the areas that have had some very wet weather today could continue to see some marginally excessive rainfall and Flash flight potential for the next few days as well this will shift into Hispano the Doman Dominican Republic rep in Haiti or rain chances there will go up anywhere west of there it's going to be more isolated in nature my friends in Jamaica Kingston Portmore Spanish Town the Cayman Islands 30 40% chance at best expecting isolated showers and maybe a few thunderstorms in the afternoon hours for the Northwest Bahamas Central on the Southeast side of the Bahamas are relatively quiet and actually a little bit drier weather for the Yucatan in into portions of Central America as well most active weather will be over the Lesser Tilles Virgin Island in Puerto Rico over the next couple of days so that's how the rainfall looks in these areas 40% chance Northwest Bahamas tomorrow Thursday 30% chance on Friday 30% chance Central and Southeast Bahamas down to a 20 on Friday isolated showers for the Turks to cost few thunderstorms developing in the afternoon hours over Cuba Cayman Islands just an isolated storm chance in the afternoon bise City 40% chance tomorrow 50% chance Thursday Friday a little bit more isolated up in the Yucatan Cancun and cosbo Jamaica's rain chances aren't fantastic just a 30 % chance the next couple of afternoons bum it up to a 40 on Friday Dominican Republic's rain chances Again Begin to improve 50 tomorrow 60 Thursday Friday higher in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands the next couple of days little bit more isolated on Friday bermuda's rain chances are actually pretty darn good the next three days anguilla's chances are best tomorrow more isolated scattered Thursday Friday same thing for St kits and neas and again the rain chances aren't Gang Busters but isolated very heavy rainfall is a possibility in these places Antiga and Barbuda Monster Rock guadaloop with a 50% chance to borrow same thing for Dominique and martinque overall they fall a bit Thursday Friday St Lua St Vincent and the Grenadines about a 30 to 40% chance Barbados could still see some heavy rain wouldn't shock me if there's another flash flood watch issued for tomorrow and then rain chances tail off into the weekend grenada's rain chances 40% tomorrow Thursday 30 on Friday trinad Tobago staying with that 40% chance but just like the rest of the islands some heftier rainfall totals are possible Guyana Cam's rain chances are pretty good and then isolated rain chances for newa Sparta and the ABC islands overall European rainfall totals the next seven days in animated form again more than a foot of rain and maybe much more than that through portions of the southeast United States especially Louisiana also some very heavy rainfall totals are portion are possible over portions of Central America notice by the end of this we get some heavier rain back into the Northwest Bahamas and then there's maximum of rain in some of the areas I just mentioned this will March towards the West towards Hispanola eventually trying to get towards Jamaica and Cuba still relatively quieter weather central Southeast Bahamas Cayman Islands and then from bise up to the north how about that friends okay you want to find us across all social media you can Instagram Tik Tok x Facebook you want to send me a picture or video to use in these YouTube updates it's my media Mundo gmail.com again you have a specific have a question about the forecast feel free to drop it in the comment section below to reiterate I will be live on Wednesday tracking Francine as it moves into Louisiana we'll have our live coverage our live webcams the live chat come and interact with me the 247 radar will be returning on this Tuesday evening so you can jump in follow that live uh radar system and just track Fran scene uh throughout the evening and overnight hours if you want to right here at media Mundo as we I appreciate you guys liking this video thank you for subscribing and again the latest on Francine winds are 65 mph at this point in time still forecast to become a category one hurricane maybe a high-end category one hurricane warnings are in effect in the areas in red from Cameron Louisiana to Grand a Louisiana and more than likely landfall will occur sometime in the early evening hours of our Wednesday here south central Southeast sides of Louisiana friends until I see you live tomorrow you have a great rest of your day I'll have the latest for you then right here at media Mundo [Music]