>>> WE KNOW THE RACE BETWEEN TRUMP AND VICE PRESIDENT HARRIS IS NECK AND NECK, WHICH MEANS THE STAKES COULDN'T BE HIGHER HEADING INTO TONIGHT'S DEBATE. >> THE MOST RECENT POLLING AND THE MOST RECENT DEBATE AMERICANS WATCHED, EFFECTIVELY, ENDED PRESIDENT BIDEN'S POLITICAL CAREER. AND NOW WITH VICE PRESIDENT HARRIS AT THE TOP OF THIS TICKET, THIS MAY BE HER ONLY CHANCE TO FACE OFF AGAINST DONALD TRUMP BEFORE THE ELECTION. LET'S GO RIGHT TO NBC'S STEVE KORNACKI WHO IS STANDING BY WITH SOME OF THE DATA FOR US. WHAT ARE THE NUMBERS TELLING YOU, STEVE? >> A CLOSE RACE. THIS IS THE AVERAGE OF ALL THE NATIONAL AVERAGE POLLS, WE'VE BEEN KEEPING HARRIS TWO POINTS AHEAD OF TRUMP, 47-45. THAT IS DOWN A TICK FROM WHERE IT WAS A FEW DAYS AGO, HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, HARRIS HAD BEEN THREE UP ON TRUMP. THERE HAD BEEN A NUMBER OF POLLS, YOU'VE PROBABLY SEEN THIS IN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS THAT HAVE BEEN BETTER FOR TRUMP NATIONALLY. A PEW POLL THAT HAD THE RACE TIMES. A "NEW YORK TIMES" POLL THAT HAD TRUMP AHEAD. IT MAKES IT 47-45, IN THE NATIONAL AVERAGE. AND ONE OF THE QUESTIONS, TOO, OBVIOUSLY, WE ALWAYS SAY, IT'S ALMOST A CLICHE, IT'S NOT THE POPULAR VOTE, IT'S THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE, BUT WE DID SEE WHEN TRUMP WON IN 2016, OF COURSE, HE LOST THE POPULAR VOTE, WON IN THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE, AND IN 2020, TRUMP LOST THE POPULAR VOTE BY 4 1/2 POINTS IN NEARLY WON IN THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE. ARE WE GOING TO SEE A DISCONNECT AGAIN WHERE THE DEMOCRATS DO BETTER IN THE POPULAR VOTE, BUT HAVE TROUBLE IN THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE? THAT'S SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON, AS WE SHOW YOU THE AVERAGES. AGAIN, OUR POLLING AVERAGES HERE FROM THE SEVEN CORE BATTLEGROUND STATES. AND AGAIN, YOU SEE -- YOU DO SEEM TRUMP, SOME HARRIS BLUE HERE, BUT WHAT YOU REALLY SEE ARE RAZOR-THIN MARGINS. A POINT AND A HALF. 1/10 OF ONE POINT, HALF OF ONE POINT HERE. THESE THINGS REALLY KIND OF ON A KNIFE'S EDGE IN THESE STATES, ALTHOUGH YOU PAY NOTE, ONE OF THEM HERE, WISCONSIN, HAS HARRIS AHEAD BY JUST OVER FOUR ON THE AVERAGE RIGHT NOW. AND THAT GETS US TO SOMETHING ELSE WE SAW IN 2016 AND 2020, AND THAT WAS POLLING MISSES, AND POLLING MISSES, PARTICULARLY IN WISCONSIN, IN MICHIGAN, SAW IT IN PENNSYLVANIA TO SOME DEGREE. WE TALK ABOUT THE POLLS BEING OFF IN '16 AND '20. THEY WEREN'T OFF BY THE SAME AMOUNT IN EVERY STATE. THEY WERE JUST PARTICULARLY OFF IN THE UPPER MIDWEST, IN THESE NORTHERN BATTLEGROUND STATES. THERE WERE POLLS THAT HAD JOE BIDEN AHEAD BY WELL OVER TEN APPOINTS IN WISCONSIN IN 2020. HE ENDED UP CARRYING IT BY JUST 20,000 VOTES. THAT'S ANOTHER THING TO BE LOOKING FOR THIS FALL. BIG QUESTION HEADING INTO THE ELECTION. WE CAN LOOK AT ALL OF THE POLLS IN THOSE STATES. HAS THE ISSUE BEEN FIXED? THE PROBLEM WAS, IT SEEMED, TRUMP VOTERS IN THOSE STATES, A LOT OF BLUE COLLAR, WHITE VOTERS IN THOSE STATES, VERY HIGH, TRUMP UNDERESTIMATED IN THE POLLS IN THE LAST TWO TIMES. WILL THEY BE UNDERESTIMATED AGAIN? THAT'S VERY SIGNIFICANT IF IT HAPPENS. AND IN TERMS OF THE STAKES FROM TONIGHT'S DEBATE, THIS IS FROM "THE NEW YORK TIMES" POLL. THIS PUTS IT IN STARK CONTRAST, ASKING VOTERS, DO YOU NEED TO LEARN MORE? DO YOU FEEL YOU NEED TO KNOW MORE ABOUT THESE CANDIDATES. MORE THAN A QUARTER SAID SO ABOUT KAMALA HARRIS. DONALD TRUMP MUCH MORE OF A KNOWN COMMODITY. ONLY 9% SAY THEY NEED TO KNOW MORE ABOUT HIM TO MAKE UP THEIR MINDS AND IF HARRIS HAS PEOPLE WILLING TO LEARN MORE ABOUT HER, ONE THING SHE WANTS TO USE THAT OPPORTUNITY IS TO TRY TO ADDRESS THIS. DO YOU SEE THE CANDIDATE AS MAJOR CHANGE OR MORE OF THE SAME, STATUS QUO? LOOK AT THIS, HARRIS, THE INCUMBENT VP, UNPOPULAR ADMINISTRATION, A MAJORITY SAY, SHE'S STATUS QUO. TRUMP, A MAJORITY OF THE FORMER PRESIDENT, SAY RIGHT NOW, REPRESENTS MAJOR CHANGE. SO SHOW YOU IN THAT LAST SLIDE, THE