Gators Gameday Live: Miami Preview

[Music] [Music] welcome to the first ever live episode of Gator game day I am Seth Vador joined by Bud Davis uh this is kind of going to be what we do weekly typically on Saturdays but butd is actually going to be in attendance for this first game so we decided we do the Miami preview a little bit early yeah so that's what we're going to do we're going to talk a little bit of Miami tonight get kind of their identity give you a little bit of what they like to do on offense and defense talk about some of their new additions which they've got a bunch of them and then the case for Miami to win the case for Florida to win so uh but just first first game of the year what are your kind of initial thoughts going into the week I'm so excited like oh man I tweeted this out like I freaking love this week like there's nothing better in college football like we don't have anything negative to talk about everything is like in front of us we have the future in front of us uh you know we can be we can find things wrong with the program the rest of the year but this week we're like all in things are great um it's lying this is the time to lie and feel good and get excited for football we've got football on tonight like this is this is great I'm pumped I can't wait to be there on Saturday um and yeah I love it and really Florida and Miami already won to0 because Florida State lost last week so everybody's everybody started this season on a really high note so uh yeah it's always the best time of the year you get a bunch of games you got games like you said tonight games tomorrow we got games on Saturday obviously and then even some Sunday games so it should be a lot of fun and uh hopefully good for the Gators but we'll talk about more about that later first let's talk a little bit about Miami so 2023 team uh I think they ended up 7 and six right not great just kind of Mario and Nate Pier got hired about same time they've both been kind of hovering in the same kind of area disappointing mari's um obviously hasn't had the difficulty in schedule that Napier has had um but his results have been a little bit better and he's recruited better so but really these are two programs in pretty similar places I would think after two years of a head coach on the job I think so and I think you kind of hit on on one of the big differences is I think Miami's been a little bit better at roster construction at least like closer what to what what I kind of like would map out as an ideal path which is recruit The Trenches really well early you know get skill players you know bring them in from the portal and and kind of patch holes that way and get good pretty quick and I think they have a lot of expectations in year three but we're going into this game and I think they have a ton of question marks on the roster I think they've probably had to rely on the portal twoo much and you know we'll get into this but I think their secondary is pretty pretty trash yeah they were not great last year and they lost some guys um I think they lost 28 guys to the PTO off last year's team they brought in 15ish uh some high quality players we'll talk about them in a second but first we wanted to just kind of talk let's just talk kind of General really General identity stuff in terms of how they like to play and then we can kind of see if we think it'll change much so we'll start with their offense so base 11 personnel they'll getting some 12 Personnel they're a little 10 personel so uh so most of the time they're playing with one tight end occasionally they'll play with two tight ends and sometimes they'll just play with four receivers and no tight ends right so um in the Run game and Bud's got some numbers to kind of back these up they're a lot of inside downhill they'll do some inside Zone which to me I believe this is just inside Zone It's a Mario CIS ball team they'll want to run the football their split zone right and then they'll do some Duo which is just kind of a downhill we got double teams looks a little bit like inside Zone but it's more uh downhill some people call it power without the puller and so it's a really downhill run the back can read a backer and get vertical I think that's kind of their base play you see it here Florida is similar Florida will run some Zone inside Zone Duo um and you know up front if you don't fit it upright they can break him they got some pretty good backs this back transferred uh but they probably replaced him with a better guy yeah Fletcher is a good back as well um I think he was ding but he's back dami Martinez is transferred in he's good but you can see here Clemson does not fit this well what they what they do let me show the wide again here what Miami will do they're not super revolutionary but you'll see here you got formation into the boundary and you got a bunch so how do you play Bunch some guy a lot of teams will play four over three to the bunch so when you you're taking these four basically from the numbers out to cover these three well now I got a light box and if the safety is the Run well I can get a big play so not like crazy but you see the safety Misfits and it breaks for an 80 yard run the game we'll talk about this more uh that Miami is a pretty high rushing totals with their backup quarterback here but I think this play kind of contributed a lot to it but you just see how they'll move formation they motion about the national average so nothing crazy motionwise but then they'll do occasional Gap scheme stuff where they pull guys but a lot of times when they do that they've got something attached to it like a screen or here they have a reverse but they're higher than average screen team so I think you'll see a ton of screen Ward is really good at that and that's something we'll talk about he's really good with kind of manipulating arm angles and finding Open Spaces to throw these quick throws so I I bet they'll be run a ton of screen he's probably really good at it let me see one more screen on there yep so there's Gap and they throw back the other way and then Shannon Dawson is uh Dana hogerson disciple also coach under how mummy for a little bit so he runs some air raid stuff in the passing game here's just look at mesh they can run it from different Personnel groupings previous play we watched they ran Duo right and he bounc it now they're going to run mesh so he's the mesh he's a mesh he's over the ball he's the out the back's coming out here so just an air little air raid staple so you'll see some air raid Staples in there probably me probably White Cross things like that um and then obviously if you're a good running team you're going to want to take shots this one's probably a familiar one to Florida fans you got a post an out and a flat so it's flood but with a post Florida runs this a ton this can be a shot for you pretty good throw there by Tyler van djk but it's nothing you know it's nothing revolutionary yeah I think I think you know you kind of talk about them being a little bit of an aid I think they definitely do that in the past game but they've got a way more even run pass split than you know you see kind of of a typical a raid uh system um in general I think I kind of gives me a their overall system they they like 10 a lot which is kind of interesting you know that jumps out they do a more than average right yeah a pretty good chunk you know about 10% more um they've got rpos Fair bit in there like almost 15% more so that's going to jump out they're going to throw the ball a lot I think it's going to be interesting for me you just said rpos it took a second to load up but here's a couple the last two clips were rpos oh yeah let's get them two good examples of them and then this one this is I think something Ward if will probably be pretty good at because he's really good at catch and throw really good with a defined read um and like a good ball there not a bad ball but a better ball there is a pretty good play so a lot of times when they have this Gap stuff they've attached something to the back side of it so because they're not a huge gap run team if you look at their but yeah RPO is another part of the game so yeah aade RPO inside Zone like that's kind of their offensive identity you know it's interesting Kim Ward I think we're going to talk a lot about him but like he's a wing team guy Wing te High School recruit so like zero star no offering like Incarnate Word was the only one went out there set FCS freshman records all sorts of stuff in an air raid system out there and then followed his OC to you know wazu and played there and so this is his his first time kind of going outside of that and I think he's he's within his same system but it's ALS it's also different you know it's not throw the ball the most in the nation like he's been asked to do so yeah it will be I think it will be a little bit different for him I think his skill set fits um but it it when we we'll talk about him in detail shortly but he's an interesting kind of study um offensively Miami's identity anything else you kind of you know I I think with a Mario crystal ball team right it's cliche but the guys wants to run the football yeah maybe to the detriment sometimes of his quarterbacks yeah I think I think you look at it and you know they were they were really really good at at limiting sacks and scrambles last year like that's something that jumps out of the out of the sheets is that crazy it's like 3% something a little like that and you know they lost their Center they lost their left guard so they got two two new guys there uh I think carpent Zack Carpenter is the transfer from Indiana he's pretty good but you know it's tough to have a new center a new left guard a new QB and a new running back a new wide receiver Sam Brown from Houston all those guys new first game playing together is in the swamp like that's tough I think you saw a little bit of that last week with Florida State right the year before you had some guys you had like a few new guys kind of filling in important spots here and there right but the majority of the guys were guys that transferred for a couple years before had a year there and played right so uh we saw this year with if you're plugged in a bunch of new guys it could be a little bit tougher in an unfamiliar environment right they're on the road in Ireland uh probably an odd way to play but playing in the swamp is a very difficult place to play as well so uh offensively Miami kind of power spread air raid kind of an amalgamation of things they want to run the football uh they're going to throw a bunch of screens and try to formation you into some different things but nothing like wildly re it's just it's solid you know college football stuff so nothing crazy now throw up the advanced stat Graphics you want to throw those up yeah if you can let's do it let's let's see and you know Seth and I are both a little bit under the weather so sorry for all the sniffles all right so on the left is Miami's play calling sheet and on the right is Florida's play calling sheet these are these sis stats breakdowns we've looked at before and you know Miami's usage is here their relative usages here those are in percents so you see green here that means it's it's something that's pretty unique to their system and then it's their performance here as Florida fans we want to see purple purple's good for us and then here's our Florida defense so green is good for us over here um Saxon scrambles I think things in red kind of jump out as as concerning areas for me and and question marks that I'm watching for this game so Saxon scrambles really low for Miami last year 3% that's like nearly the bottom in the nation um you know can Florida get through that you know new rebuilt interior o line that Miami's got and get some pressure definitely watching that th this 10 perel and RPO game that Miami's got you know Florida Florida was okay last year you know against the RPO and didn't see a lot of 10 wasn't wasn't too great against it so you know how it's not super prevalent anymore you don't see a lot of teams going four wide receivers it's mostly kind of a hybrid 11 with a tight end that can catch the ball yeah Miami's got a good wide receiver core though you know stpo Brown like that's an area of concern you know you're GNA see Heavy emphasis throwing to these wide receivers and the guys out of the slot and Florida wasn't great against those last year what's I think what's uh interesting is they do not Miami does not throw to their tight ends a ton and they don't throw to their backs a lot they they they get them out in the route but they don't throw they didn't throw to him a ton last year um those were some easy throws and I think Florida uh struggled against both those last year yeah that's a lot of places where linebackers are covering guys and uh outside Shamar James the linebacker crew last year was not great in coverage yeah so you know I think I am hopeful you know Deon Moore Jason Marshall like looking at the depth chart like just that defense makes me feel so much more confident than last year's looking across the board um you know screen passes they throw a fair bit of screens you know it's it's above average for sure and Florida played screens pretty well last year if they want to throw screens I'm fine with it um I kind of have an attitude like I think it's I think this is gonna be a high-scoring game you know but I think they're going to have potentially more growing pains than Florida playing away you know in the swamp it's a tough environment and as long as we're not giving up explosives I think this game favors Florida um and kind of one of those things is this you know no Blitz I I highlighted that here because you know Seth you you and I have kind of talked about well like how would you play Miami as Florida you know do you pressure cam Ward or you know do you drop eight and I think I think I'm coming around to this no Blitz idea you know I think I think if you ask him to hold on to the ball I don't know if he's necessarily got the Comfort level in the system to make a progression you know I think he's kind of a one read guy you know I I know their wide receivers are good but you can limit the explosives and if you ask him to to beat you you know holding the ball and throwing it deep then yeah I kind of want to see it yeah and and we've got got some clips of him at Washington state where uh it's interesting yeah some there some teams were dropping eight on them some teams dropping you know look make it look like Drop eight but one guy's a spy and he struggled at times with that but uh we'll get a little bit more to him here in a second let's move on to the Miami defense which I think we we said the Miami offense is pretty I wouldn't say bad or or vanila but you know it's solid college football stuff but not revolutionary you w do you want to do the film first yeah let's do the film with the Miami defense right uh these guys like to get after it so yeah they are not afraid they're aggressive I believe L GID is the the uh coordinator there so here's in here's what they like to do a lot so we'll see from the back here uh really but you see there's basically five dudes on the line of scrimmage but here they bring the corner they're not afraid to bring pressure here against Texas A&M I wanted to show the back end of this right so Miami loves to bring five or they love to line up in this kind of bare front look where you've got a guy basically on the nose sometime a lot of times it's a down lineman you've got guys in threes these guys are almost he's in a three so he's between the guard and Tackle he's more of a four ey but let's just call him a three right and then you guys outside the tackles right so they it's called a a be front and why this is really difficult is there are some teams some offenses that if you get in a bare front they have very limited amount of protection checks right a lot there's some teams that their only check is well we're just going to block this man on man right so if you once you show a befront it it limits the protection options for the offense and it can make it really difficult when you move bring guys from different places and you're not going to get a lot of when you play Miami I don't think you're going to get a lot of just like straight Rush up the field you're want to get guys moving a ton guys coming from different places yes you're gonna get a lot of line moving up front and you're going to get a lot of bear um I think got pun against and we'll see some stuff from Florida State they got a ton against Florida State oh Florida State it's the it's the whole game so what what jumps out to me is how they're fast on that dline yes they had some and that's Ruben Banes obviously a guy to watch now they're gonna be pretty I think theyve they've kind of almost totally rotated outside of Ruben Bane I think the other guy's mesidor outside of them they've almost like totally flipped the roster in terms of transfers coming transfers going out transfers and freshman coming in so uh now Bane is a guy that's got like All-American type potential uh and he's getting a ton of pre-season hype uh and he's a really good player but interior wise there's a lot of new guys so some guys that had some good um you know ratings at the portal but you'll see here is adding on late so just expect do not be shocked to see a bunch of uh times miam's rushing Five Guys like it's not yeah F the five guy Rush is like what jumped out to me they're doing it all the time and here they kind of overload this side and it looks like they're misaligned almost like you see this and you're kind of okay but they've got some quickness at linebacker and he can just he just shoots the Gap and makes the play there right kind of oddly aligned but they move around and do so much stuff that it can make it really difficult uh is that an underf front is that what an underr is iing under will be like a one to the strength okay uh usually most people put a three to the strength but here's kind of so here's um what these guys they're not in a befront but as this is more of the tight look that a lot of people have gone to and that's why I think it's a little bit easier now to block the bear front because it's pretty close to the tight front which a lot of people are running now so I think offenses are seeing a little bit more so they've got to get their protection ready uh because it's hard like if you're a halfs slide team it's hard to make this and so we we talked about you know getting outside against this is is good but they play these guys off they turn it back in they play downhill and aggressive so yeah they get vertical off those edges so fast yes but you'll see as we go through here's another Blitz they bring somebody late I think they got a hold there as well but and then a lot of times balls in the boundary if the corner rolled up short side he's coming A lot of the time so they'll use him a ton into that boundary Florida used to do that a ton with Charlie Strong back in the day they'd bring the corners off the boundary side a lot uh little corner cat um and so that's something they like to do as well but yeah this is kind of the Iowa State kind of first popularize the tight so where I'm in four eyes and then I try to just kind of kill the interior here bounce the ball out to athletic guys they can run it down but they'll bring pressure from everywhere so like Florida will need to be ready for Blitz that's kind of the the number one thing uh get ready for Blitz I like that FSU game because FSU is in a lot of pistol a lot of looks similar to what Florida's gets in so this is kind of a little bit more what I'm expecting for us to see from Miami and just because they're in that front doesn't mean you can't run the football like you can still run your Zone get vertical which Florida state does there with as much you know if you're blitzing a ton and you're gonna play man behind it with motion you can find creases right you watch the back view of uh the endzone view of this you can see guys play in the motion and that's where the crease comes Zero's out of position because he's playing the motion you can still run your boots here Florida State runs boot we know Florida wants to run a lot of I think I think this is something we're gonna we're gonna do 12 of these this is gonna be arless boardingham and Hayden hon we're gonna you've got some I think you've got some good uh info we're about to show um you know I think Miami struggles covering tight ends and they struggle I think their back seven struggles in pass in uh in coverage yeah for sure I'm not I'm not uh even like a Maui go has pretty good numbers but watching him I don't think he's super comfortable in space um so hopefully let me pull this down for a second see if it'll load better but hopefully if you want to throw your numbers up while I get this to load let's do it and then we'll kind of because the back end's kind of okay well how can you beat this defense a little bit so put the numbers up let's te it up because I I think there's some cool shots like we went through this tape there's some cool stuff oh all right so here here's a nice little little depth chart for them I think this is kind of one of those important things is is you know in green are are kind of matchups I like these are the you know replacement transfers and anytime you've got transfers especially in the trenches those are guys I want to attack I I think Bain Wesley Bain at a at linebacker he's good you know he he's definitely good he's not as good in coverage and he's light too He's listed like 205 or something like that yeah but but he he's kind of one I want to test you know but he might have developed he's getting a little bit older um I think you know the the kind of like there's my [ __ ] guys that I want to go after if I'm Florida is I'm throwing after this true freshman OJ frederiek and if they sub him out for Jadis Richard Rashard like this guy that he's on the bench he's second string for a reason they had to play him a lot last year he's terrible if this guy is on the field we have to throw the ball at him yeah Miami's defensive backs were uh pretty bad last year in coverage um yeah and I mean we're saying that as Florida fans our our DBS were pretty God awful last year so we can identify it after the last yeah we we've seen it all right so on the left is Florida's play call sheet and on the right is the Miami defense you know that that sax and scrambles that these guys generate for Miami that is very concerning like we're gonna have to watch how their defensive ends and linebackers especially go against our uh offensive tackles especially our right tackles we know how much you know we talked about in our offensive preview how much we like to go to the right you know I I I do have some worry about our boot stuff but we'll kind of see that but overall the passing game is where I think Florida's got our biggest Advantage you know we were pretty good passing team last year Miami not as great of a pass defense you know rpos I think we're gonna have some great film with that I think that is jams out as a weakness of this Miami defense is playing this RPO game and and then you know their their DBS not great at covering the wide receivers tight ends abysmal this is like some of the worst tight end numbers in the country that you could see so this is this is the arls boardingham Breakout game that I want to see and Florida you see Florida's tight end usage is a little bit above average and their success rate and EPA are uh in terms of uh targets their success rate in EPA are really good so that's a good match up for Florida I I think getting guys match up on Miami's linebackers and pass coverage can be uh a place for Florida has an advantage now right the question is can you get I think there's some of these usages are pretty low because Miami gets to the quarterback so that that's the next one is these deep Target numbers Miami bad you know those safeties suck but the Deep Target numbers were 10% you know off FBF average because they get to the QB so quick and generate those pressures these Blitz rate so you see that's plus 10% plus 11% uh good numbers there for them so the is the blitz is something we got to know how to deal with uh we got to figure out a way to deal with it you know if I'm Florida though I'm testing this inside inside run it was the it was the way a lot of teams attacked Miami last year it's where they found the most success and Miami's got you know replacement guys there they got transfers I I am testing the inside Zone throwing to the tight end and I'm throwing rpos yeah and I think we got some stuff I think testing if they do get in a bare Look test the edges now uh this is a pretty good individual play here but testing the edges of the defense uh we'll see Florida kind of worked the perimeter here as well like there's show that one you go back that one kind of skipped I didn't get to see it yeah this one you know speed option weak oh yeah just making guys make plays in space I think is I I feel like we could also see a la like way absolutely Crush yeah so here's Florida against LSU just I think these kind of throws quick throws at the perimeter where you're just it's guys I'm working on the I it doesn't really matter interior wise right it doesn't really matter what's going on in here doesn't matter who your D right so these kind of things I think could be Advantage throws for Florida and then um you know like like we showed earlier if you're going to run a lot of man and Blitz a lot if you motion which Florida likes to motion and you can get guys matched up you can make some big plays in the passing game off the motion also the RPO look Florida State hits a couple of the or has a couple RPO looks here where if they're going to be aggressive and feel for run there's holes behind it FL State misses that one they a good one they hit this one here oh yeah this one and this isn't too too dissimilar to what Florida raning US LSU last year as well oh man and now now with Trey Badger and DK like I look at that against the Miami DBS and it's like that's if Florida wins this game let's go attack there let's yeah like you're saying those guys are better catch and run guys so that might be the plan of attack if you don't feel like you can hold up to take because you there's chances to get these kind of shots here uh last year they busted quite a bit on the back where people were able to kind of get over the top of them here's one against first play of the game against Texas A&M Texas throws this but this guy's running a corner out and they're so aggressive to come down to that that if he just Waits and throws that he's could Moon walk into the end zone still gets a pretty good play out of it right just get out in space and then here's later in the Texas A&M game so this is one where uh Mali Goa is going to be matched up on the fullback here you want to be aggressive wheel them yeah so you got to be able to take advantage of aggressive defenses like that get over the top get the ball outside in the perimeter um if you can you can have success uh pushing the ball down the field I think is easier said than done against uh Miami's front uh so I I would imagine Florida's brought in a lot of guys that are pretty good run after the catch guys they've got uh Eugene Wilson is good running after the catch Badger that's one of his big things so yeah rpos hitting these guys on the run run after the catch might be kind of a big part of the plan and not as many vertical shots possibly against this Miami for yeah I I agree like I I still think you've got to find a way to take the Deep shots and try and get the explosives I don't think this is going to be a game that gets 11 10 to seven like I think you got I think you got to score some points but you know you gota you gotta figure it out and I think you know we've talked about Burke and Jackson but if OJ fredrique is out there you know 180 pound freshman or whatever he is go bury that guy in the dirt and and let Trey Wilson yeah I'm serious bury that guy and go get some Yak throwing it to Trey yeah there's a lot of new guys gonna be playing for Miami um on the back end you have a couple freshman transfers uh you have obviously offens you Daman Martinez uh you mentioned Sam Brown at receiver so Miami is really good offense defensively the skill positions um and I think the biggest and the one everyone's talking about the biggest addition is cim Ward at quarterback like you said earlier started incarnate Ward uh was really unheralded recruit coming out of high school uh just blew up an Incarnate Word I think his like freshman year he had 47 touchdowns interceptions uh 4600 yards passing uh so followed OC to Wazoo uh and some people think he's going to be a first round draft pick in the NFL uh he's got some traits um do you want to watch We want to watch the video first or do we wanna we wna watch the video first let's watch the video first let's all we got I've got some kboard videos so let's watch some kboard let's hold up let's I did a tweet today that got a lot of action even with the Miami fans and that's how I know it was a good one all right so cam Ward got a couple games uh just my initial thoughts watching him he's really good uh really good catch and throw like if if you let him catch and throw you give him easy throws he's going to complete them he he I think when he has a good pre-nap read he makes quick decisions gets the ball of his hands can be accurate um here you'll see like a different arm angle he's athletic and can change angle so when they do that screen stuff he's going to be really good at it um it'll be difficult to kind of see here kind of a he gets to a funky angle to get the ball out he's a real I mean he's a good player you watch the film he makes a lot of plays he can make throws from the pocket this is last year against Oregon not perfectly thrown Ball but really well thrown ball uh against UCLA last year this throw this throws better this throws better from The End Zone view here we can kind of see how he has to layer this thing but and he's got some really good throws in this Oregon game but he's a he's a he's a really good catch and throw player you can see why people think he's got a a chance to be uh a really good player in the future but we'll get to some he's got some issues which needs to clean up to be a first round pick in my opinion but he makes throws the anticipation he's a good quarterback I'd feel uh if you're a Florida fan I think You' feel a lot better with Tyler van djk coming back right because uh but there's some there's there's an interesting comparison where we're going to get to in a second with Tyler Van Dyke uh and cam Ward which is kind of a counterintuitive really he can do this extend plays but this also gets him into trouble at times extending plays throwing across his body here's one like this is a crazy now I think the score is like 38 to 16 at this point or something late in the game but this is an insane play and throw on the run so like he's got a ton of talent he can extend plays make throws like that here's one another one he kind of extends the play here he's not a great what's interesting he's like when you watch him like oh he's pretty good runner his rushing numbers are pretty terrible for his career uh for his career he has 339 rushing attempts for 269 yards yeah the the rushing and the sack numbers kind of surprise me how how mediocre they are so that was interesting uh and I think some of that is because we'll talk like he gets sacked a ton um and then this is where I think when you take away his first couple reads and this is with most college quarterbacks right if you take away their initial reads and kind of make him sit there and really work through it this is where he can kind of he starts to press at times and makes mistakes with the ball there's here organ do a three-man rush and then spies him he's gets really loose with the football and we'll talk there's an astounding number yeah oh there's one number that's insane but he can get uh he'll take risk here from the back you can see this is should have been picked so I think he's a really good player like most guys most college players I think if you if you pressure him obviously his performance suffers a little bit he does trust his arm a lot thinks he can make a lot of throws like he tries thinks he can throw this over the top of this Defender throws an interception against UCLA uh this is a really difficult throw probably had something coming back inside here based on the coverage but right thinks I can fit it over that guy that's tough and then here this looks familiar drop eight spot UCLA did a pretty good job of being able to get pressure with three they had a pretty good front uh and I think this is the kind of way Florida may have to deal with him where right it looks like a pressure look but they're really only bringing four yeah so you can maybe get the benefit of blitzing without having to bring a bunch of guys so you can play coverage behind it Florida showed this in the past just a couple years ago right where they bring two in the a G drop these guys out so you're getting the benefit of a blitz without having to sacrifice pressure like we saw the Miami defense will Blitz and hey man play coverage back there we're going to get there fast enough so we're not worried about it so you know I think that's kind of what you got to do against Ward is I that could be the plan where you bring some of these creepers and simulated pressures and try to get him out of rhythm because when he can just play in Rhythm catch and he's really good so um now he does have a couple issues when we're talking pressure uh number one the most glaring this I thought this was fake when I first saw B too he's fumbled 46 times that's insane in his college football career um he's fumbled 46 times and thrown 26 interceptions so he's pretty loose with the football that that th those are the stats where it's like this is where it's like Vegas is minus two I have a tough time being like yeah oh yeah Miami's gonna come in here and win this game or or Florida's gonna clearly win this game I can very easily imagine Miami having a two three turnover game so many new guys in the swamp a turnover prone QB like this is we've seen so many guys who are who are great quarterbacks Joe burrow you know I I was at that game 2018 when he threw that pick like I was right there like I remember he was not Joe burrow in that game the swamp gets to people especially first Year's QBs they can go in there and struggle a lot of guys being asked to make the first start and and I think the camore turnover numbers just blow me away you know if Florida can't get a turnover I think it's going to be tough to win this game but I don't think that's going to be the case yeah and 46 fumbles 26 interceptions according to PFF he's been sacked 142 times in his career which is wild for a guy that is athletic as he is appears to be right um I thought interesting his pressure to sack ratio this is something you're hearing go around a lot more um especially around the draft like CJ strad super was really low in college they um they was really low in college uh they're starting to feel like this translates pretty well to the NFL uh like Caleb Williams was really high that was one of the questions on him Kim Ward uh for his career now last season at Washington State he was a 24.9% fresh pressure to sack ratio so that means almost a quarter of the time they got pressured he was sacked yeah um for his career this is including Incarnate Word because I think one of the things on him and this is I think my biggest question is okay well his Supporting Cast in Miami is going to be a lot better than it was in Washington state so that should Elevate him but his Supporting Cast in incarnate War like Incarnate Word is a really good program for that level so his supporting as there was pretty good uh he was still 18.2 and 17.9% pressure to sack ratio in his two seasons he played there little yeah but it's a little bit better I think Tyler van djk last year was like 12 yeah and I think people think is a stiff statue he was like you and I were talking about this how much is the Miami over o line overrated that's I think yeah let's um so uh let's let's finish up with War real quick so we can talk about that too but press so that pressure to sack ratio that's that's my big like is this a consistent issue his time to throw I looked at Merz last year's time to throw was 2.35 seconds when clean um time to throw uh for uh I think van dijke when clean was 2.35 uh I think Ward was closer to like 2.6 2.7 2.8 so he's holding the ball a little bit longer even though I just showed you a bunch of Clips where he's getting the ball out of his hands really quick so he's basically first first Le I think he's trying to he wants to make big plays a lot and uh that kind of can cause him to hold the ball a little bit too long but so that's kind of that's my question with him so we got this comment which is if he's such a good QB how he doesn't QB good that's he he has a negative EPA he The Fifth Fifth most in FBS and sis has him as a negative EPA yeah that's that's insane yeah it's it's it's it's a very he's going to be a fascinating guy to watch because a lot I think a lot of the stuff around him is okay well his Supporting Cast at Washington State sucked okay he's got a really good Supporting Cast to Miami like their skill Talent is really good yeah up front uh you know pretty good tackles are great yeah so you've got everything you need so now will they be able to put it all together first game if you're a Florida fan you're hoping not uh but we'll see as it goes along the year so but real quick let's talk because I think we can kind of spin out of K Warden to okay so how does Miami win this game I think they win if Kim Ward plays well if it's not if acclamation is not an issue if he kind of lives up to the hype and I think the other case would be you know they dominate Florida on both lines of scrimmage I think it's if the Miami wide receivers are absolutely toasting the Florida DBS and making it easy on cam cam Ward they went I got my notebook I got my notes yeah and so I think that's number one and and the Miami running backs if their Intero line is as good as it was last year and they've got good running backs and they're just able to run the ball they don't have any turnovers I think those types of things make it easy for Miami to score make it a short shorten the game like if I'm Miami I'm trying to keep this I think it keep it lows scoring you know I think those are things that that jump out to me and then if their linebackers and defensive ends are so good against our offensive tackles that we can't leverage our own wide receiver advantage against their DBS yeah yeah that's that's kind of how I if if Miami wins they will have kind of dominated Florida on the line of scrimmage especially defensively and made it really difficult for Florida to get the ball out I think Miami's gonna have a lot of stuff designed for those you know those boot actions that we like to run you know they're gonna they're gonna have stuff for that and they've got guys to get out there quick to shut those down so I I I struggle to see I or I can see the game where Florida is trying to run a lot of those boot actions and we're just getting sacked or thrown away Merz is getting beat up like that's where I see this game going bad that's yeah a lot of third and Longs a lot of not too dissimilar I don't think to Utah last year yeah maybe not the penalties but kind of the similar where anytime you try to push the ball down the field you're getting beat up uh you're unable to run the football and kind of establish the running game I think that's if you're that's kind of the Miami win scenarios it's it's similar Florida it it it turns out similar to Utah and then if they can get comfor all on offense yeah if Florida doesn't have an efficient passing game if we don't have a quick passing game I think we lose this yeah I think you got to take advantage of some of your uh the matchups on the edges right so that in which I think is not like a you know it's not a that's why this is such a tight game and that's why the Miami is favored is they do have some guys coming back that are proven Commodities and some positions but let's talk I think you're ready to Hom glasses let's have fun all right so let's talk how does Florida win um so here's my question if if I'm if I've got the Homer the Homer goggles on the Homer glasses on uh I think one big question is how good is Miami's offensive line really that's one of my because you're hearing them talked about as one of the top in the country um and you go look at it and they were pretty good last I know You' got some stuff where they were like really high in like non blown block percentage and there's some metrics that say this is a really good offensive line but you know I'm watching some tape and like North Carolina state is in the backfield a ton and uh then I go through and I start looking at um their yards per carry so I it's a I think it's a decent metric right to look at yeah um and you start looking at it if you take out a game against Miami of Ohio you take out a game against bethon cookman a game against Temple such a trash schedule yeah Temple is so bad Temple bethon cookman might be might be a pretty good game actually uh you take out those three uh if you just take out those three games they go from over five yards a carry to 4.4 yards carry which is still good better than Florida was last year but it's not elad and then you go start looking game by game a little bit and some of the tougher teams they played and they were under four yards of carry which I think under four yards of carry is bad like we can say that's pretty bad they were under four yards of carry five times last year um Florida for reference was only under four yards of carry four times all last season uh and one of the one of the games they were over was the Clemson game where they rushed 38 times for 21 yards but they had that 80 yard rust for showed on film if you take that away the other 37 rushers they average three and a half yards of carry so you know are they like a bully that's like beating up on bad defenses or are they you know that's just it's long season that's just how it is sometimes I don't know that's my question because the there's reason they only won seven games yeah that's kind of my qu if it's such a great offensive line how do you only win seven games because it's not like you know they wanted to run the football they had good running backs so if you could just physically impose your will on somebody you should have been able to win a bunch of games now they probably should have won eight if uh Mario doesn't uh you know just takes a KN but but you know still uh there's that question and then who is the loser of in-game coaching Billy versus Mario is go it's brutal I'm not as I'm not as down on Billy in game but uh he does make some special teams yeah he does make some interesting decisions uh yeah uh he's he's want to put himself out there back let's put the goggles we got well the other thing oh he's great uh the other thing with the Miami offensive line um this is my qu this is kind of my so last year they allowed 100 they only allowed uh 16 sacks for the year but they allowed 119 pressures okay so if you put uh cam Ward's career pressure to sack ratio just against those amount of pressures that number goes up to about 25 sacks yeah this is how this is how we should do it this is statistics so yeah if Cam War just brings his career average pressure to sack ratio to the same amount of pressure last year while they have to replace two guys up front they're allowing a lot more sacks so like we said Ty D was about like 12% so you're almost you know last year K Ward was like double the sack pressure to sack ratio to Van Dyk so that's kind of where that those are my kind of questions I think they got good skill guys I think the backs are good I think the receivers are good players like they're all I think they're all Senior Bowl watch list guys so they they're getting NFL looks I think they've got some good guys up front but like are they is it projection that they've got young guys are going to take a step because you're losing your Center um who is an NFL guy and you're losing a left guard who I think made a made a team yeah so you're replacing him now Carpenter I think had some pretty good numbers at Indiana but yeah still breaking in a new guy there's a reason he is going to Miami and not the NFL yes that is always the thing with uh older guys that's what they got back a fifth year senior if he was a really good player would he would he have gone to the NFL those are the kind of questions so um what are your kind of questions with their off is that kind of where you're at too I think my big ones yeah are are cam work is Cam work good you know I I'm kind of out on that I think the receivers worry me and are good backs I'm okay on I think the interor line I'm pretty convinced is is not as good um and Mao the left tackle I think what you know he was fine last year I think he was probably the weak link of the two uh or right tackle he's right tackle yeah right yeah um really highly rated dude but you know actually stats are okay just just fine but he was also young yeah I think that's why I think there's some of some of it projection like they said okay he's gonna take the step and be that five star I think for me it's just it's so hard to imagine a unit jelling for the first time in the swamp in the first half of the swamp and getting it all figured out like I feel like it's very easy to imagine that Miami offense derailing um and particularly struggling to get the Run going you know I I I like the interior of Florida's defensive line I like our linebackers a lot I think we have potential at the defensive ends and I could see Miami struggling to get that run game going and then if that's the case I think kind of my preference is let's play Black let's play back a little bit I think you had you know one clip of um maybe the UCL UCL UCLA defense where they're playing five yards off these guys taking away a lot of the easy throws and making cam ward make cam W Drive the field I don't think he can do it yeah a guy that's turnover like that you you kind of the more chances the more plays you make him make the more chances you get him making a mistake I think is the is the thought right if he's negative EPA on it like on 500 attempts last year that's a great sample size you know let's play that game yeah so yeah I think Florida wins if Miami's offense uh if a couple areas don't live up to the hype I think their backs and receivers are going to be good I think I think this is a game where I I like both offenses you know against both defenses I think this is a game where the offenses on both sides look better than both defenses but I think the potential for Miami's offense to derail is significantly higher than Florida's especially you know a lot of A lot's made of AK war is playing he's played in some pretty tough environments Oregon's pretty tough Washington's pretty tough it's not I mean maybe this could be bias talking but I I you can't tell me those places with 50,000 people or louder than venues like I don't think it's physically possible so um game he didn't get to use the headsets last year yeah and then you have a center so a lot of times your Center is the guy making calls so a new center that's played in the Big 10 but those environments don't get loud that's there's a lot of people but it's not that loud uh so that could be something as well so I think if Florida wins yeah there's issues jelling um and maybe quarterback and those new linemen don't quite live up to the hype defens how do you think Florida if Florida wins uh what do they have to do on offense against the Miami defense this is this is my this is like my favorite thing we're gonna talk about this is like I I think this is like what I what I'm most excited about and how I see this game actually being won and thing that gives me the most confidence is you're two Merz yeah we see transfer QBs take such a big step in year two year two merch with three real wide receiver threats and three wide receiver threats who skill set complement how you would attack this defense in winning one-on ones winning things like Slants getting Yaks getting Yak getting pop passes like things like that you could do a pop pass with any of these guys you know rpos play action like I think we're going to see a DJ lagway play action RPO pop like RPO just like go for a touchdown I'm flag the camera's GNA pay to Bud Davis in the crowd going insane yeah South End Zone I'll be I'm gonna be there just like losing it but like that one play against FSU it's like oh my God those linebackers are so aggressive eat that up turn it against them yeah that's what yeah you got to use your aggressiveness against I think also uh Florida's tight ends you saw that ORS boardingham they talk when the coaches talk about him they talk about him as a mismatch player and a matchup player well I think if if you feel that way if you get him matched up on these backers I think he's got a chance to make some plays so and he's really good run after the catch too so that's something the Florida coaches have talked about so you may not have time to take the Deep shots but you may get your explosives with a catch and run yeah absolutely and and also I want to see our inside zone game against their interior dline yeah Florida's uh with Damen George kicked inside Jake Slaughter had a pretty good year last year I think you got to feel like you're pretty stout in the middle at least at least like George is a big dude and he's played a bunch of football at this point so um I think they know what they got in him so yeah that'll be if you can kind of mitigate their pass rush like it's you can't rush a passer if the ball's being run right at you right so yeah that can be helpful Ruben Baines a handful uh but try to mitigate him with boots and things like that and I think that's your res for success and and then you know work the prer make those guys tackle in space because you do have a lot of really good run after the catch players if Montreal is back I think that's actually underrated for this game I think he's the type of running back that I would expect to do well against a team like Miami that's a little bit smaller but fast you know he's just a little bit bigger a little bit slower a little bit less explosive I think he kind of is what we want to run against them I like him a lot um I say one thing that I do want I just want to say it publicly when you get a chance to watch the all 22 Montreal is a stud like you don't see some of the stuff he does on like the TV the more you get a chance to watch him like man this guy's really good like I don't know how good he I don't know if he's like an elite but you get when you get a chance to kind of see the end zone views of some of these things like man this dude is really really good yeah yeah I think full speed I I hope he's actually back I'm skep I'm skeptical all right things I I wrote down this things I feel good about UF wide receivers against Miami DBS Merz in year 2 the left side of UFO line when have like I haven't gotten to say that in a while like we have a side of our our o line that I actually feel good about like there you go yeah and U cam wward in the swamp and the UF tight ends you know yeah Slants rpos passes yeah I think all that matches kind of the film and and the numbers you were able to give us so I think there's a good marriage there and that's what we're trying to do here at Gator game day we're trying to find the marriage of the numbers in the film to try to show can we let's can we do some hot takes please go ahead hot is I think DJ lague could have as many touchdowns as gr Merz in this game oh that is a ODOT take that's very interesting I think he could have two I think he could have two touchdowns in this game one throwing one running that would be beautiful um I this is not so much a hot take as a like I think if this this is a wild prediction that if it comes true Pro I think Florida wins if Florida had or while something that if it happens I think Florida wins if Florida if a Florida defensive lineman has an interception or even a pass deflection because that means they're running creepers and Wards a little confused throwing ball so I'd watch for that to see if maybe you can you can sneak one because he likes to get the ball of his hands so quick maybe you can make him feel like he got pressure and he throws Dez Watson would be be beautiful but we'll settle for anybody uh but yeah like one of those ends dropping back you know um dropping and try trying to make a quick throw that's my wild we haven't even talked about Ron Roberts how did that not no that's that's kind of the other thing I think you if you think Florida is gonna win you think he's gonna have a really calming his veteran his presence is going to have like a calming effect and you'll feel a lot better knowing that you're in the right stuff every time like I thought Armstrong did a pretty decent job at times but there's also other times where you know we talked about when we watch the defense that you know like Sabin knew okay I gotta get out of this or like I can't just stick in our normal defense I gotta change because they're what they're trying to do to me May May there were times maybe Armstrong you feel like didn't see it that fast yeah and was like all right well this is what we do let's just stay with it we maybe a more veteran guys is more willing to be like all right that's going to be tough for us we got to change it to this so I think you feel pretty good with him uh at the helm and I'm excited to see what's different I don't know if it'll be different or it just be better executed yeah so you got a score what are you thinking no I don't what is the uh let me what is the over under for this game I'll look that do you have a score I I want to hear what you got then I'll all right I think I I was singing about this I know Miami at the last was a two and a half Point favorite two and a half um yeah I would I would it's interesting that a lot of Florida by 16 or 17 I think I think this is Florida 34 Miami 16 Miami wow yeah I'm not quite there so the point total is 54 um this is where it's it's the first week Seth we have all season to be negative we have all season to use the numbers we've got and the observations we've got to be reasonable but this is the first week I want have fun with it no I think Florida is going to win this game by more than two scores and I think we're going to have turnovers that get us there and I think we're gonna have some DJ lagway RPO touchdown Arley boing Arles boardingham Breakout game and I I think DJ lagway do some kind of speed option thing like that with with Trey yeah God just eat their lunch yeah I I week one I I I would be I would lean more towards a 28 24 type game that's what I'm seeing a lot of so I I I I think it's not going to be crazy high scoring but uh yeah I don't know it's it should be I mean it just on paper it should be a pretty good matchup um and that's yeah hopefully Florida comes out Victorious here so I think that's pretty much it for our first kind of preview I don't think they'll typically be this long once we get in season because we won't have a full offseason's worth of things to talk about and get in uh and then they'll TP these will typically be on Saturday yeah kind of up to 10 minutes before kickoff so we'll kind of we we'll do it and then we'll give you guys enough time to get some drinks go to the bathroom that kind still let's try and hop on halftime and postgame talk I'll try Stadium's got Wi-Fi I'll try and talk yeah so we'll we'll try to get on at halftime and talk through we'll have uh some Advanced sta stuff from probably game on paper right and and then I'll try to pull the video live so we'll have some things to watch a couple plays here or there or maybe you know Florida's had a great play and they're at a real big advantage using this or Miami's uh got forward in a bind we'll try to show those and what we think might happen in the second half and then hopefully we get back together for a postgame Victory celebration is buds uh heading out of the heading out of the swamp and training it's great to be a Florida Gator with everybody so oh it's gonna be awesome I can't wait so uh enjoy the weekend folks we'll be back hopefully at halftime of a big Florida lead but we'll see thank you guys for watching the first LIVE edition of Gator game day we'll see you guys on Saturday go Gators hey go Gators guys