Donald Trump clearly dominated camela Harris
in the first presidential debate he delivered a performance that met the expectations of his
supporters strong and assertive Trump effectively countered Harris's points throughout the exchange
it was clear that Harris who has been trailing in the race for months needed to make a strong
impression during the debate but she failed to deliver the impact required now let's shift Focus
to the 2024 electoral map reflecting the changes following the first and possibly only debate
between the two main candidates we'll Begin by identifying the solid States for each candidate
these being states where either Trump or Harris are expected to win by 15 percentage points or
more starting with the Republican strongholds Trump is set to easily win in Utah Wyoming Idaho
Montana North Dakota South Dakota and all but the second district of Nebraska he will also take
Kansas Oklahoma Missouri Arkansas Louisiana Mississippi Alabama Tennessee Kentucky West
Virginia Indiana South Carolina Alaska and the second district of Maine this tally gives him a
solid 126 electoral votes on the other side Kamala Harris is set to claim Washington California
and Hawaii along with Vermont Massachusetts Connecticut Rhode Island Maryland the district
of Colombia and the first district of Maine with these states in her column Harris Trails behind
with 109 electoral votes next we move on to the likely states where one candidate still maintains
a strong Advantage but the margin of Victory is narrower between 7 to 15 points Trump for instance
is likely to win in Iowa and Ohio two key states that he dramatically shifted to the right during
his political rise in 2012 both Iowa and Ohio were competitive having gone to Obama eight years
earlier and George W bush in 2014 however in 2016 Trump managed to swing Iowa 15 points to the right
and Ohio by nearly 12 points he won both states by similar margins again in 2020 despite some
predictions that Biden could close the gap in either State Trump's influence remains strong and
both states are expected to vote for him for the third consecutive time adding to Trump's column
is Texas once a state Democrats hop to flip Biden didn't come close in 2020 despite polls indicating
a tight race Trump ultimately won Texas by six times the projected margin and today he's likely
to secure it by a double-digit margin though not quite enough to exceed the 15-point threshold a
major Republican prize in the up coming election is Florida with its 30 electoral votes formerly
a highly competitive Battleground for three decades Florida is no longer up for grabs in
2020 Trump improved on his 2016 performance in Florida winning by a margin greater than any
presidential candidate had achieved in the state in 16 years this election cycle Trump is expected
to win Florida by over seven points making it the best result for a candidate in the the state
since 1988 with Florida locked in the likely red column Trump is now just 51 electoral votes
away from securing a second term having racked up 219 votes already on the other side many states
that Joe Biden won handly in 2020 are going to be far more competitive for camela Harris first on
this list is Oregon which is not as liberal as its neighbors California and Washington in New York
Harris is poised to become the first Democratic candidate to fail to win by a solid margin since
Michael Dukakis in 1988 similarly New Jersey impacted by the scandals surrounding Senator Bob
Menendez will also be more competitive than usual Delaware Biden's home state will be closer
this time without the incumbent on the ballot lastly Illinois is also expected to be a more
difficult win for Harris even with these states in her column Harris is still behind at 181
electoral votes that leaves us with the most competitive States totaling 138 electoral votes
if we compare this map to 2020 it's clear that the political landscape has shifted back then States
like Minnesota Colorado Virginia New Hampshire and Maine had already gone Blue by this stage having
voted for Biden by more than seven points this time camela Harris is not performing as well
as Biden did four years ago now let's examine the lean states where the margin of Victory is
expected to be between two and seven points these are the states that could produce some upsets but
one candidate still has a slight Advantage first we look at Harris's lean States beginning with
Colorado while I expect her to win here it will be by a much narrower margin than Biden's 14-point
victory in 2020 Clinton's 4.9 Point margin in 2016 is a more realistic comparison CA Harris will
take Colorado's 10 electoral votes but it won't be an easy win another state in her favor is Maine
the at large tally will likely go to Harris even though Trump has proven competitive in the State
winning one of its districts Maine generally leans left but with Biden out of the race Harris will
find herself in a closer Contest New Hampshire is another state where Harris holds a narrow lead
Hillary Clinton only won the Granite State by 0.37% in 2016 making it one of the closest
contests in the country that year while Trump is expected to perform slightly worse than he did
in 2016 Harris will need to keep a close watch on New Hampshire it remains a swing state and the
fact that Harris was recently campaigning there shows her concern about holding on to its four
electoral votes next we turn to New Mexico a state that Democrats have held since 2008 but one that
is Shifting more and more to the right especially as the Hispanic population Trends toward the GOP
while Harris will likely carry New Mexico the margin will be much smaller than Obama's 15-point
win in 2008 this shift suggests that New Mexico could become a Republican state as early as
the 2030s finally in the Midwest West we have Minnesota a state that hasn't gone red since 1972
Minnesota is moving rightwood but Harris's running mate Tim Waltz who is popular in the region should
help her keep the state in the Democratic column that leaves the eight most competitive States and
the second district of Nebraska for Harris to win she must take Wisconsin Michigan Pennsylvania and
Virginia Trump on the other hand only needs needs to win Pennsylvania North Carolina and Georgia
to secure 270 electoral votes he could also get there by flipping one of the Rust Belt states
along with some in the Sun Belt now let's focus on the remaining lean States for Trump starting
with North Carolina Trump won the Tar Hill State in both 2016 and 2020 and given Biden's failure
to flip the state Harris is unlikely to win here either Trump is the clear favor it especially
given Biden's stronger standing in 2020 which did not carry the state for Democrats moving on to
Arizona and Georgia these are two of the closest States from 2020 with margins of 0.24% in Georgia
and 0.31% in Arizona however Trump is now in a much stronger position with polling in both States
favoring him given that Trump has historically outperformed his polls both Arizona and Georgia
are likely to return to his column in 2024 with expected margins between 2 and 4% Pennsylvania is
another critical state for Trump the first debate was held there and fracking remains a key issue
Harris's stance on fracking may have alienated some voters making Trump the slight favorite in
Pennsylvania he won it by nearly 1% in 2016 and I expect him to Win It again this time by just over
two points now we are left with the closest races which will be decided by margins of less than
two points I predict Harris will narrowly win the second district of Nebraska and Virginia but not
without a fight Virginia once solidly Democratic has seen a republican Resurgence with the GOP
winning Key State offices in 2021 Harris's lead in Virginia is fragile but for now she Remains the
slight favorite Nevada on the other hand is poised to go to Trump despite losing the state by 2.4% in
both 2016 and 2020 Trump leads in the polls and I expect him to win Nevada by just over 1% this
time lastly we turn to Wisconsin and Michigan generally Michigan votes to the left of Wisconsin
and Pennsylvania but Harris's choice of Tim weltz as a running mate might give her a slight Edge in
Wisconsin however I still see Trump winning both States as he did in 2016 the Rust Belt tends to
move as a block and I expect Trump to improve on his 2016 performance against Harris flipping both
Wisconsin and Michigan back to the GOP after the first debate Camala Harris missed the opportunity
to change the trajectory of the race Donald Trump Remains the overwhelming favorite for the 2024
election with 3 12 electoral votes projected to go his way compared to Harris's 226 if these results
hold this would Mark the worst Democratic showing since Michael dukakis's defeat in 1988 as we move
closer to November it will be interesting to see if any developments change this forecast but for
now Trump is on track for a significant victory