Scott Rasmussen’s 2024 Election Breakdown: Polling Surprises and Swing State Showdowns

when Biden dropped out Harris got just the the sigh of relief from a lot of people oh thankfully it's not Trump Biden again uh a lot of democratic voters came home all the natural constituencies uh came home younger voters became a little more enthusiastic the minority turnout shifted a little bit more in her Direction but that was a short-term bounce and right now the race in many ways is like it was in the Trump Biden numbers with the exception that people know very little about vice president Harris they don't know her policies they don't have an opinion of her you know Donald Trump on the other hand people perhaps know more than they want they have very strong opinions about him we're joined today at the daily signal by Scott rasmon he's the host of the Scott rasmon show on Meritt Street at heirs 10: a.m. Sundays and founder and president of RMG research Scott thanks for coming back Rob it's always good to chat with you well you have some new numbers and this is the time of year post Labor Day when the American people start paying attention to political races and campaigns at least historically that's what we're told and so this is when I expect that pollsters will face a lot more scrutiny for the numbers that they're coming out what can you tell us about the state of the presidential race here at the beginning of September well as we head into September uh the race is too close to call anybody who tells you that they know who's going to win is either lying to you or deluding themselves uh you know we've done uh a lot of polling on this race the last four weeks our polls for the napolitan news service have shown Donald Trump at 49% three times and 48% once uh Harris has been at 49% twice she's been two points lower than that once two points higher than that once so it's a tossup situation and the reality is what happens between now and November 5th will determine who the winner is uh not dividing uh details from polls at this point in time and now Scott Those are National polls that you're talking about is the same true for the six or seven swing states that will likely determine the outcome in the Electoral College yes right now those you can look at lots of different pollsters with lots of different numbers but overall they're suggesting it's pretty close um and you know a small difference in Pennsylvania could determine who the next president is but uh you know and I would guess if I had to that that is the single most important state um the difference between now and when Joe Biden was in the race is that the four Southern swing states are potentially back in play you know Arizona Nevada North Carolina and Georgia um I would still anticipate that Donald Trump is slightly favored in those but uh I wouldn't bet a whole lot of money on it because it's still very close Donald Trump came out of the Republican National Convention in July riding a pretty big high obviously um coming off of the assassination attempt on his life naming JD Vance as his running mate you know really a remarkable week of unity in Milwaukee and then of course Joe Biden just Days Later decides to drop out of the race and and Make Way for kamla Harris now uh she picked Tim Walt she had her convention did we see much of a bounce coming out of her convention or or how much should we Factor into to this um uh media makeover if you will of kamla Harris who wasn't exactly all of that uh you know there wasn't exactly a lot of enthusiasm in months prior to to Joe Biden's decision and it seems like in the course of the past 30 days or so she's had quite a turnout she has um you know I think the first thing I would say about both conventions is the vice presidential pick perhaps on both of them represented a little overconfidence I think president Trump thought he was going to win no matter what against Joe Biden he would have uh vice president Harris I think was riding that high and think she could win no matter what um and that's that to me is just perhaps uh you know there's there will be Lessons Learned and people will talk about those choices afterwards um what I think happened was Americans have told us for the last couple of years they don't want a Biden Trump rematch you know that it was just like oh do we have to go through this again two you know older gentlemen arguing about these things a re play of the pandemic year and when Biden dropped out Harris got just the the sigh of relief from a lot of people oh thankfully it's not Trump Biden again a lot of democratic voters came home all the natural constituencies uh came home younger voters became a little more enthusiastic the minority turnout shifted a little bit more in her Direction but that was a shortterm bounce and right now the race in many ways is like it was in the Trump Biden numbers with the exception that people know very little about vice president Harris they don't know her policies they don't have an opinion of her you know Donald Trump on the other hand people perhaps know more than they want they have very strong opinions about it and does that mean that when you you cited those numbers earlier the the the 48 49% it doesn't seem that Trump can quite get above that is that because their are view their views are locked in already based on what they know about Trump yes H absolutely look if you take uh the policy positions if you ask voters who do you trust on certain issues uh Donald Trump is generally trusted more than K Harris on the top issues dealing with the economy and immigration uh if you were to take the job approval numbers of President Biden and recognize that Harris is defending that Administration uh you would also say Trump should have a big Advantage here but there are some people who even though they might prefer his policies just can't bring themselves to vote for the former president now I'm glad you brought up the issues the napolitan news service has has done a series of polls on those issues you cited a couple of the top ones uh I've noticed a change in the numbers in in terms of how Trump was handedly in in some cases by double digits beating Joe Biden versus a much narrower Gap uh with KLA Harris as the the opponent what can you tell us about the shift in the issues the big shift has come on the issue on the economic issues inflation and other economic concerns there's a very slight preference for Donald Trump right now typically about a three-point uh swing and we're testing this each week I think KL Harris got real good points uh for actually talking about inflation now her her plan for Price controls isn't all that popular um the idea of giving a $25,000 Grant to firsttime home buyers people think that sounds okay until they realize who has to pay the cost um so again you know these these issues themselves may not be all that popular but she did talk about issues and that's a really important thing um the one that I've I was most surprised by on the issues we just released this it has to deal with her unrealized capital gains tax now this is an issue normal people don't sit around at a sports event and discuss unrealized capital gains taxes so we had to describe what the issue was and how taxes are handled and turns out about 14% of Voters favor the plan for cap uh taxing unrealized capital gains but the one that surprised me the part of the poll that surprised me 25% say they those gains shouldn't be taxed at all um quite a quite an outlier position if you would compared to the consensus in Washington yeah well and and I think this is one of the the reasons that um that we've heard people say that Donald Trump really should focus on the policy issues not so much her personality because uh when when you look at her record and when you look at some of the positions they are deeply unpopular the problem is that uh there are a number of Americans who simply don't pay attention to to that level of detail and you've documented this in in our past conversations that there is a wide swath of Americans who simply won't go that deep and so uh if you're in a I as a as a pollster like do you think that that'll shift as we get closer to the election or do we just have to be realistic that people aren't going to pay attention to policy as they may have once done 10 20 30 years ago well I don't think they're going to pay attention to deep policy issues but they will get some themes as I mean the typically about 8% of Voters talk politics daily that will increase as we get closer to the election uh but I think president Trump could learn a lesson from candidate Trump in 2016 uh in 2016 and it shocked a lot of people after the election was done um the analysis showed that Donald Trump talked about issues a lot now they were issues that the elites didn't care about immigration and other things but he did talk about issues of concern to voters Hillary Clinton talked about Donald Trump um and since she didn't address issues and since she embodied the you know the political establishment um that was her downfall president Trump if he wants to draw voters attention to issues he needs to stop talking about who the better-looking candidate is or any of those things and talk about these policy issues yeah well it's it it was even quite clear I mean the Republican National Convention barely mentioned Joe Biden or KLA Harris and at the Democratic Convention Donald Trump came up almost in every every single speech so yes uh that is that is right on point um Scott one of the other things that I found fascinating about some of your recent polling is you you looked at the the term Progressive Democrat versus Maga Republican what can you tell us about those two terms and how voters perceive Progressive Democrats versus magot Republicans well if you ask in general about the two you know there's a partis in tinge to it neither term is terribly popular with the general public but if you give voters a choice between voting for a a Congressional candidate who's a Maga Republican or a progressive Democrat well they're going to pick the progressive Democrat by a pretty wide margin consistently unless you begin to talk about issues um so you know in our in our more recent research on this we talked about who you're supporting in the midd East conflict and if the progressive Democrat is seen as supporting the Palestinians in Hamas um voters overwhelmingly say well forget that we're going back to the Maga Republican and Rob the difference here is traditional Republic an really have a hard time embracing the Maga movement um that's where the disconnect is traditional Democrats they're not as offended by the Progressive Democrats at this point but if they learn the position and say just to pick a few issues um uh Progressive Democrats support for men playing in women's sports uh Progressive Democrats like Terry mcauliff who want to keep parents out of the decisions in in their their children's or or even on on border security I mean uh that's where I think probably you draw a big distinction between the two absolutely in fact if you draw attention to those issues they're all very unpopular positions held by Progressive Democrats and importantly they're not just offensive to Republicans they're also offensive to traditional democratic voters Scott we just uh observed obviously Martin Luther King's uh Speech uh very famous speech in which he he talked about judging people by the content of the character not the color of their skin kamla Harris has made a point previously not so much recently about focusing on Equity over equality uh you've done a study on this and it seems that the Harris position is quite unpopular with the American people very very much so I should point out by the way my monologue for this coming Sunday show is going to be on that speech and the lessons we can learn from Martin Luther King on that um all of the lessons not just the ones we like but it but it's a it's really an important topic uh but what we did in honor of that we did test a variety of messages and questions about equality and equity and basic founding ideals we gave voters a choice between a candidate who favored equality who who said we should all be treated equally and another candidate who said no equality is not enough we need Equity so that we all end up in the same place and the number you know more than 70% said well I want equality um and this is something we've seen for years uh we've done a number of different polls on different issues that have Arisen and there's always about 15% or so who say um yeah Equity is the way to go but that's 15% is not growing um and I think it's something that uh you know equality and Equity if you say it quickly in a speech people don't pick up on the distinction but if you begin to listen to the policies uh the equity position is very unpopular yes it it certainly seems that that that is the case uh one of the other things that you and I have talked about in the past and I'm just curious if you've have any new research on it is the elite 1% uh those individuals who are very much in the the power centers in New York or California or Washington DC uh but they don't necessarily identify or relate to the everyday American uh any new research you're will uh able to share with us on that group of people Rob I never knew you to be such a master of understatement when you say they don't necessarily align they're diametrically opposed uh you know we did a a survey related to that project of managers of the federal government so people who live in the DC area and are working for the federal government at a managerial level and uh let's start by saying their views are much more closely aligned with the elite 1% than they are with the American American people um and there's some deeply disturbing findings in there we asked for example we asked these government managers suppose you decided a regulation was needed but you knew that the vast majority of Voters were opposed to it what would you do and most of them said we will ignore the voters and implement the regulation uh not really too much about consense of the government in that response um 53% of these government managers believe they should have the authority to censor social media posts uh 51% of them believe we have too much individual freedom in America so again a lot of these attitudes are similar to what we saw in the elite 1% but these are the people in the administrative State who are actually implementing these policies well and these are issues that are really at the center of of this election I mean you you touched on their views on free speech for instance I know that RFK Jr and his endorsement of of Donald Trump made made Free Speech a a big issue uh we we've seen that come up with Elon Musk and the the different uh approaches Tim Waltz has commented on it but when it specifically comes to those government managers you know one of the other things that's at stake is Trump wants to really reform the administrative state in a way that that has you know really spooked the the left uh they uh they point back to these these uh independent civil servants not necessarily who are going to align with the president's View and I think that's fundamentally what the American people will probably ultimately be deciding this election on so thank you for taking a closer look at at where they stand so we can better understand their perspective on the issue well you know Rob that is a core question that we're facing and it's been a an argument brewing for a little over a century but we have the founding ideals that we all cherish of Freedom equality and self-governance embodied by the Constitution and that's what most Americans think of as the is the way government should work that you get your legitimate Authority from the consent of the Govern but in the late 19th century a progressive movement began that thought we should have independent experts who were insulated from voters and who were trained at special Elite schools make the decisions um and there's an awful lot of people in that Elite world who think that's the way it should be done we we don't think voters are smart enough they shouldn't have a voice in this um and you know I've been trying to think of polite ways to say it but it really if you believe those views that we should insulate government officials from the voters we should let experts decide you are rejecting America's founding ideals yes well that is that is well said Scott let's talk about another group that belongs to that Elite 1% and those are the journalists who covered the news uh you've also had some recent numbers that show that the American people both Republicans and Democrats by the way think that the media are serving as cheerleaders for Comm what can you tell us more about that well you know if you ask about journalist when Walter kronite was was you know the national example they would have said they're impartial um but voters now believe that most political journalists and by the way political journalists on both sides cheer for their candidate they want to help their candidate rather than reporting uh news fairly and a plurality of them say if a reporter found something that would hurt their favored candidate they'd bury the story rather than report it and by the way that's just shocking from a journalistic perspective and yes when we ask which side they're favoring most say the journalists are cheering for kamla Harris uh not really a shock there it's been that way for a long time uh but a lot of times we do these numbers and they're not shocking in what they actually tell us but it's always stunning to see it numerically in front of you just how how aware people are of these problems well they they are aware I mean it's it's one of the reasons why I think the Trust in Media is so low uh but the evidence is in front of us I mean every day for literally the last 40 days 40 plus days I mean we've seen story after story where you can see that that clear contrast between how they handle Trump versus how they handle KLA Harris if Donald Trump had avoided media interviews for for as long as KLA Harris did there certainly would have been a lot more scrutiny on on him at least in my perspective coming as as one of those reporters who who covers the race um let me ask you this finally Scott um we um uh have talked in the past about your unique approach to doing polling uh you call it uh counter polling uh really trying to reach beyond what other pollsters do in terms of understanding the sentiment of the American people on a number of issues I just wanted you to leave us and our audience with with your thoughts today on the state of polling how you approach it maybe versus other people and as they see a lot more coverage of polls in the coming two months uh how should they go about observing them reading them and and reflecting on them you know when people talk about polls especially during an election season all they're thinking about are the horse race polls um and if you're if that's what you're focused on step number one is look to the averages don't just pick the polls you like um you know I I tend to like to follow my own polls but I still look at the averages because you learn something from that um and if the average says one candidate's a by a point or something you call it a tossup um you know that's that's the reality of of the world that we live in uh so on that front the the problem is activists wanted they they want Perfection they want uh you to be a guru and tell them who's going to win by a tenth of a point that's not the way polling Works uh what polling will tell us this year and the horse race is which set which states at the end of the day are closest and will decide the presidency and they'll probably tell us where to look for turnout you know if this group turns out a little more or a little less it'll decide the election what I and I believe by the way most polling today um is better than it was um in the 20th century ever um you know some people talk about shy Trump voters because they underestimated his support that's there's a little bit of a myth to that but if you really want to see a candidate who was overestimated in the polls it was Bill Clinton back in the 90s the numbers were off the charts compared to anything we see today um you know there's a this idea that polls have somehow gone wrong um I think is actually a changing expectation that they want you to be right within a point on every poll having said that the biggest problem with polls is on the issue side of things you're understanding the American people most political pollsters talk in the language of a Georgetown cocktail party they start off by the discussions that are important in Washington they want to know which team people are on and they use words like woke and CRT and intersectionality that have no meaning in the general public uh so what we try to do is if we see an establishment poll with a ter some of that terminology our counter polling approach is to actually talk about the underlying policies or to talk about it in language that everyday people will use um and you get vastly different results uh because you're you're trying to you're trying to speak a language of that somebody will understand and Rob here's the problem if you do a poll actually I gave the example earlier unrealized capital gains taxes if you ask that as a polling question do you favor or oppose KLA Harris's position on unrealized capital gains most people have no idea what you're talking about if you put the Harris name in the poll Democrats are going to like it Republicans aren't if you leave her name out it'll be a little more muddied um so you ask that question you get your results and you assume that the people knew what you were talking about then you interpret it based on that which is all wrong um if you begin if you take the time to talk about the issue and explore Define it in a way they can understand well then you get some meaningful results uh and it's a challenging process one of the things we do a lot is we ask people what words mean you know do you know what woke means what is it and then we ask them in their own words to to flesh it out uh and I think that's some of the most enjoyable work we do just because it highlights the fact that America and the political world are two Nations separated by a Common Language well we are grateful to you RMG research the napolitan news service for for helping to explain and and uh and bring the American people this data and as transparent as you are in terms of putting it out there regularly throughout the week it's fantastic I strongly recommend that our audience check out your show 10: a.m. on Sundays Meritt Street what are some of the other ways that uh that they can follow you and your work well for the napolitan news service just go to napolitan news.org we have fresh data going up every day and you can follow me I was going to say on Twitter I'm on X scottw rasmason happy to have you there and and also on Instagram so but the best thing to do is go to napolitan news.org and by the way one thing we've started now we talk about a lot of numbers on my TV show obviously you know I that's part of what the show's all about uh but all the data that we mentioned on the show is now released on napolitan news.org so you can follow up and see the original data that's fantastic Scott thanks so much for being with us today appreciate you coming back and uh spending some time with the daily signal to explain the current state of the race and some of the other issues that we're seeing front and center uh best wishes to you and we'll be we'll be continue to watch look forward to talking again thank you