College Football Top 10 *Best Bets* for Week 1 | 2024

ladies and gentlemen welcome into my official college football week number one top 10 best bets where I go through my 10 favorite bets for this first week and beginning with number one I am going to be taking Georgia minus the 13 and a half vers Clemson Georgia to me is just better than Clemson at basically everything Clemson's got a very good defense George's got a better one George's got a way better offense way more explo iive and guys it feels like a game like this in Atlanta Mercedes Benz Stadium George is going to have more of a HomeField Advantage I could see Clemson keeping it close early maybe it's lower scoring 10 to three 10 to7 something like that but Georgia very likely will pull away kind of reminds me of that week one game from a few years ago Georgia against Oregon although there should be more Clemson fans because it's closer South Carolina to Atlanta than Eugene is but still it's just like Clemson their offense and how bad it's been the past few years going up against that Georgia defense it seems like a mismatch and it seems like even if it's like 27 to1 34 to 14 somewhere in that range Georgia easily covers they are the number one team in college football again just way more talented especially on offense Clemson does have a very good defense I'll be honest they do and I like Clemson I have them in the playoffs but this week one game it's not a good matchup it's a deao home game for Georgia they've they're used to playing at Mercedes ben Stadium they normally play there the SEC Championship these other neutral sight games in week one I think Georgia covers that 13 and a half point spread which has been bet down from 14 by the way moving on to number two it is Vanderbilt Believe It or Not plus the 13 verse Virginia Tech so Virginia Tech one of those teams that really has not been very good but they're getting all this hype and I am guilty of giving them some hype as well because Virginia Tech they've got an interesting returning dual threat QB apparently some teams were offering them money in the portal he didn't take it Virginia Tech's got a relatively easy schedule but Vanderbilt recently has been better than people think and I think Vandy is able to keep this close I'm not kidding I'm being serious I I think Vandy covers this 13o spread they're at home they've got the brand new stadium the you know behind both of the end zones I believe they're done with construction there so I like Vanderbuilt Virginia Tech is your prototypical they get the preseason hype they really don't deserve it it's more of a oh they've got an easy schedule kind of similar to Nebraska with what people are doing right now with the big 10 and Nebraska's easy schedule and people are saying well Nebraska they might be a dark horse for the playoff it's the same thing with Virginia Tech they've got an easy schedule Vanderbuilt is at home Virginia Tech probably a closer game I I would expect Virginia Tech to win it but Vandy they've been better recently people think they're always the worst team in FBS it's just not true I remember last year they annihilated Hawaii obviously Virginia Tech is better than Hawaii but I will take VY to cover that 13-point spread number three it is Ohio State minus the 49 and a half this is uh you know I wanted to not do this but it's just so tempting Ohio state with how talented they are this is a tough one to I'll admit because we know what's going to happen Ohio state will likely be up 42 to nothing maybe 38 to zero at half and then you're going to have to rely on backups but Ohio State I think with Will Howard they're going to want to get him three four touchdown passes in that first half they've also got some backup QBs they're probably going to want to play Devin Brown Saiyan maybe ER Nolan as well they want to get them some experience throwing especially so I think they're going to be throwing in the second half because they want to get those kids some time they're not going to try and run it up on acan but this is one of those games where if you get to where it's like 49-7 or 49-3 late in the third quarter it's basically a lock Ohio State he's going to cover because even their backups are just so much better than akan who's one of the worst teams in FBS this just comes down to do you think Ohio State scoring 5663 points if they are they're going to cover this game easily I can't see akan scoring more than seven I remember Ohio State back in like 2016 had a very similar week one type game against Bowling Green who's just another horrible Mac team they won 77 to1 so it wouldn't surprise me if Ohio state gets into the 60s maybe even the 70s against a team like akan 49 and a half is a huge number don't get me wrong and you do have the unfortunate well 52 to3 Ohio State doesn't cover in that scenario but I think Ohio state will probably score more than 52 although this is one of those games where you're kind of relying on backups so it is a little bit annoying but I will take Ohio State to cover that 49 and half point spread number four it is Colorado State plus the 322 at Texas so Colorado state they're better than people think they really are they've got a Young quarterback we remember them last year they didn't have a great season but they played really well at Colorado Texas is a team they're dealing with running back injuries they lost some receivers to the draft I think that Texas wins this game easily but it's also important to understand with how hot it is there the heat index it's going to be 95 100 gree Texas is just going to want to get out of there with a win I could see this being like a 4921 game I you know in in that case scenario I do believe that Colorado state will cover the 32 and a half this line was like 35 and a half it's been bet down significantly so it's not great value but I do think Colorado state they're going to score points as long as they get like 17 20 points they easily cover in my opinion at Texas and Texas has had trouble with teams like this in the past I remember they had a game against Wyoming I don't know if it was like two years ago where it was like a 14-point game late in the fourth quarter so I think Colorado State 32 and a half is a big big number I think Colorado State's able to cover that next we do have UNLV traveling to Houston this is the only over under I'm doing this week I'm going with the over 54 and a half UNLV at Houston both of these teams very very we would expect this game to be extremely competitive I think Houston's like one and a half Point favorites when you're talking about going over a number in colge foot Bowl you want the game to be competitive and you want explosive offenses with bad defenses when you look at UNLV they do have a very explosive offense last year they were they were in a good bowl game I think they won 10 games Houston I would expect to be able to score UNLV does not have that good of a defense either so when you're talking about 54 and a half that is not a hard number to reach especially considering it is college and not the NFL so you could be looking at like a 35 to 32 that gets easily into the high 60s and you get the over 54 and a half it's not anything crazy so I do and by the way I've seen analytical models that do really find Value in the over in this game and then by the way another game I saw Boise State and Georgia Southern the over I think 56 and a half Great Value in that that's not on my top 10 best bits but I'm just saying number six Arizona minus the 31 and a half versus New Mexico this is a typical game where people are like man New Mexico played so well in the week zero game against Montana States they nearly won they were 11-point underdogs I think they're going to get throttled by Arizona Arizona's got a young talented team yes they're replacing their head coach but they've got a superstar receiver they've got a young good quarterback in Noah faf they're going to easily cover this 31 and a half point spread they could score 60 I just think Arizona this is a game with a young offense they're going to have some fun they're going to run it up a little bit and they're going to annihilate New Mexico New Mexico is still a bad team I know they did perform well technically against the FCS team uh Montana State but they still blew it late so give me Arizona I think people might overreact to that week Zero game New Mexico playing well Zona will de demolish New Mexico and that's another analytical thing thing moving on to number seven it is UCF minus the 37 and half verse New Hampshire so I have notic this more uh this year where they are giving out lines for FCS vers FBS games I saw the Iowa line minus 22 and a half versus Illinois state but UCF just throttles teams like this I'm telling you they they're probably going to score over 60 points in this game and this is just one of those where technically based off of the models you Vegas is coming up with a number number of 37 and a half for UCF facing an FCS team but New Hampshire was horrible last year especially on defense even in FCS so I think UCF easily wins this game and I like it's like 59 to nothing I think that's an easy cover they just can't make the line in the 40s because UCF technically didn't have a good year last year but UCF I do like their football program I'm not going to lie I think they cover the 37 and a half easily moving on to number eight it is LSU minus the four verse USC so this one it depends with these Sunday night games because every every year college football does this in week one where they'll have a Sunday night game we've seen some blowouts more recently and I think LSU could pull away from USC it wouldn't surprise me if it's a higher scoring game maybe tied at 24 LSU ends up winning 45 to 31 something like that I think I have it at 42 to 35 is my final so four is kind of a tough number you would love to get it at three in case LSU wins on a field goal you at least get a push but this line originally was 6 and a half so it's been bet down significantly and it doesn't surprise me I mean I think USC there was good value on them plus the six and a half but just in this scenario LSU to me when you look at these two teams it's very clear that LSU is investing a ton into their football program they definitely I mean this is a very hard game to predict just because they're they lose a lot and they're breaking into new QB new receivers everything but they should have a lot more of Talent on defense USC on the other hand they're they are investing into their football program as well they always going to have a good offense with Lincoln Riley but to me there's some doubt with USC and Lincoln riy possibly going to the NFL after this year if they go eight and four they're in the Big 10 it's going to be a lot tougher of a league give me LSU they need to have a really good year this year I think Brian Kelly they get it done they cover they might only win by seven but they do cover the minus four there I do have Georgia State plus the 21 and a half at Georgia Tech this is an overreaction game this is a let down game for Georgia Tech coming back home after being in Ireland Georgia State not a bad football team they're really not bad they cover this 21 and a half point spread I don't think they beat Georgia Tech but everyone is loving Georgia Tech because it was the only big week Zero game and they pulled the upset off on FSU we get it but I'm gonna you know Zig when everyone else's zags and say that you know Georgia State this is a game where again it's they're going to have a let down game they're probably going to win but they're coming off traveling it's going to be hard for them and also this is just everyone the media hyping them up that's their Super Bowl week zero win overseas crazy crazy atmosphere you come back home to face a bad team like Georgia State you think it's going to be an easy win and they keep it close and the line is also balloon to 21 and a half because they beat FSU as well so you get good value on Georgia State and then number 10 and again this is just a correction game it is Florida State minus the 17 this game happening on Monday so Florida State little bit more time to get back and adjust from being an Ireland with a game being on Monday and not Saturday two more days and I just think uh Boston College is not good Florida State originally was minus 21 obviously they lost to Georgia Tech so it's gone down to minus 17 I'm not going to sit here and overreact I think Florida State coming back home they know they still have a chance at the playoff now you can lose multiple games and still make it they're going to win they're going to be galvanized and I think it's going to be like 30 you know 30 38 to 17 something like that that's an easy 21o win and a cover of the 17-point spread but either way guys it is going to do it for this video make sure you follow me on X link to that's always in the description