hey guys so I want to make a quick video on the firm Holdings so a firm Holdings is a company that lets you do something called buy now pay later so basically you can buy a product and pay later right so so so this is what a firm offers so depending on the length of the of your terms um that that will depend your interest rate so paying four is no interest and then if it's more than four months your interest will be between zero and 36% APR that's per year so in my opinion a firm they are in trouble because our our unemployment rate has gone up the the CEO was was just on Bloomberg television a a few months ago let's see what he said why do you think it is that so many customers are reporting that much stress on a broader scale as the poll shows not sure I can speak to the industry but obviously a firm is built on the idea of underwriting every single transaction not charging late fees which is important not just because it's such a nice thing to do for the customer it's also a fundamental alignment between us and the borrower if the borrower does not pay us back we cannot benefit like we will lose money if they don't pay us as black and white as that and so yes we may be an outlier in a sense that our customers outperform relative to what sounds like a fairly uh dark sounding survey but we're also public so our numbers are in plain side at all times we just printed our last quarter yesterday our delinquencies were ever so slightly down year on year and sequentially it's still Point uh 2 point 3% as it's been for quite some time and uh so basically if the customers don't pay back they are in trouble they will lose money so the unemployment rate has gone up a t bit so as you can see on the screen for March of this year the the actual rate was at 3.9% the forecast was a 3.7 so forecast was the estimate but the actual unemployment rate came higher and now check out the the date of August 2nd 2024 the actual unemployment rate is at 4.3 and as you can see on this graph since May of 2023 the unemployment rate has gone up to 4.3% um if people are not working people will will probably pay their their mortgage first their rents first their C payments first Bills first first and then they will pay their affirm loan and um let's go check out the affirm total de as well so airms de so they are about $1.1 billion in that so let's see so total de issue so this this is the the TTM so the the 12 month trailing total day issue was at 12.6 billion but they repaid 11.16 so so that will leave you with $1.5 billion in that and that's terrible because the we we are most likely in a recession because our inment rate has gone up 022 since these past three months as you can see back on the screen this is called the sound Ru so in March our unemployment rate was at 3.9 and now it's at 4.3 so basically it's gone up 4% that that usually says we are the recession and like I said people are not working people don't have money and people will first pay the Rend their mortgage their bills their car payments and then they'll pay their affirm loan let's go check out the affirm chart so okay also airm Day Report earnings this month I believe so firm yes right here so firm reports August 28th which is Wednesday and um so they they've actually been losing less and less money every quarter they they be their EPS so last year of 2023 they they beat EPS by 18% then on the most recent quarter Q2 of 2024 they beat it by 25% but like I said we um our unemploy rate has gone up a a lot in these past four months also that that will will probably push our Federal Reserve chairman J pow to cut rates but the question is is he cutting rates because we're in trouble or is he cutting rates because he thinks our our economy is healthy healthy enough for us to to get R cuts and inflation will not get out of hand now this is a chart for for a firm so we are in the one day chart let's see the one we chart yeah that doesn't make really sense because so this company went public in so January of 2021 let's check out the one day chart okay so so firm has support at the $16 level at the 12 at the $16 level at 12 $12.60 and then the final support is at $880 they're they're most closest line of resistance is at $34 $35 and and right now my training view is is telling me to buy but in my opinion um then this price should go up but it can hit $34 and then come back down and as you can see uh I put an alert at $34 3390 so once it get there I trading you will let me know and most likely I will buy put options on the firm because I think these earnings that are our upcoming earnings a firm will will not do too well because people are probably not paying back their loans because unemployment rate has gone up but yeah guys that that's what I think per form Holdings um tell me what you guys think in the comments and don't forget to like comment subscribe and thanks for watching