one of the guys that I think is the most clear example of me of a guy who I expect to to outperform you know what he did last year and really see something great out of him again is rre Stevenson um Stevenson last year was not healthy you know missed some games wasn't super efficient in the scheme that the Patriots were running at the time um but these are all things that I think are going to be rectified this year um clearly the Patriots came out gave him that four-year $36 million extension so they value him as a piece of this offense if they didn't think he was fully healthy coming back I don't think that contract happens um and even last year as a runner he was graded out really really well he had a 78.7 grade on PFF so like this is a guy who still last year in a scheme that doesn't fit his skill set was productive um and especially if we look at him you know between the fact that they are they've already confirmed and we've seen it a lot in Camp that they're switching over to a more zon heavy scheme which is where most of RA Andre's uh success came both in college and in his NFL career not a great Gap Runner even though you know he is the body of a guy you think would be he's better when you can create the hole for him through you know through an inside Zone through an outside Zone and he can just explode from there and when we're talking about Stevenson as well it's also to important to note the receiving upside that he's shown Us in his career um you know even last year un you know poor quarterback play all the way around um I mean kind of the same thing in 2022 um but he in 12 games still had 38 receptions uh two 238 receiving yards so even just projecting that number to come up a little bit with full health um but where I'm projecting it to come up even a little bit more is I I truly do think jacobe brassette ends up being the starting quarterback for this offense and if that's the case Brett's th had games throughout his career where he's been the starter and he's thrown the ball 10 plus times to guys like miles gasin like he consistently throughout his career has had pretty high Target numbers where the running back in the offense in games that he started is at worst the third highest earning Target or third highest Target earner and many games they're the second or even the first so if jacobe brassette is the starting quarterback early season I think with the other additions they've made on the offense this offense is going to be a lot better than we've seen them be in last year I don't know how I can't click the ra Andre Stevenson button at his current cost you know when we're talking about him coming off the board at running back 19 um the one guy around him that does make it a little bit harder is James Conor because I love me some James Conor but at the same time you know if I'm passing on a quarterback like Joe burrow wide receivers like T Higgins George pick and Z flowers for an upside of a Workhorse earn over 70 80 Targets in a season fully healthy in a better offense the regression seems like a no-brainer thing for me n see your best point there is going to be the receiving work I think this is where maaji ston is really gonna make his name uh all three years we've seen Jakob Brett be the starter you are right the the fourth lead Target on the team ended up being the running back miles gasin hit over 60 Naim Hein was almost at 60 and then Kareem hunt and Nick chub both had about 40 in his stint with with the Cleveland Browns my only thing here my only push back for amandre Stevenson is going to be just the quality of this offense I think that it's it's really tough to get this offense to be even close to League average at this point I have him as a bottom third type offense I just don't know how many touchdowns they are going to be altogether on the table and that could really hurt your fantasy finish year which is why it's tough for me to get him past his ADP which is you know a fringe rb2 I think he's absolutely acceptable at that point in the draft my only thing is is right before him right you have player like Alvin Kamar not even close like I'm hammering Alvin Kamar over rander Stevens for a lot of reasons we'll talk about you know different different videos we get to Alvin Kamar and then I agree with you where James Conor just the quality of that Arizona Conor's offense I think is it makes it really hard for me to take him there and then for the same reason just with the offense I think Dave Montgomery is a player I find it hard to take R deerson over Dave Montgomery because Dave Montgomery even if without the receiving work walks into probably nine 10 touchdowns with the way Detroit uses this offense and God forbid anything happens to jir Gibbs we're looking at a guy who's going to be a top five weekly play even with jir Gibbs we're talking a guy who will be a set and forget rb2 he'll be that low-end rb2 who could always give you a little bit higher a little bit lower never hurts you um he's so rander Stevenson he kind of Falls with like Aaron Jones in that just that little spot where I'd have to be pretty desperate I still love a lot of the wide receivers around him if he were to slip a little bit like around if you give me one round discount I REM Stenson I'm in baby because I don't think it's even close once we start talking you know zamir white uh as kind of that next that next back with with him I find it now a lot more difficult to to pass upon because I don't want DeAndre Swift I don't want air white uh rinder Stevenson clears those guys for me just from a workload standpoint but it's tough for me to get behind this offense uh I do think it'll be better than last year though certainly uh Tim you you have any thoughts on on Patriots there I have a lot of thoughts um I agree with Jake about the the targets I want to say this though I think a big indicator early you'll find out with ra Andre is the yards per catch or yards per reception it was pretty garbage last year um Jake and I we discussed tandre good amount um in the offseason and I agree that if he gets the workload he can definitely do it and I think that the offensive play design will be better for that which will improve those yards per reception uh one 100% agree switching to a gap versus a Zone scheme was absolutely the wrong call last year they also were were had play designs for passing routes for receivers that couldn't get open and routes that basically covered themselves so the play design in my opinion will be 100% better both running and passing which should make this offense more efficient which should improve that yards per reception number now like you said about Kamar Kamar being RB 17 while ra Andre is rb19 that's criminal that they're not they're not even in the group in my opinion but I do believe rb19 is very suitable for rre Stevenson in terms of a price it does feel a little bit Dead Zone but I do believe he can outperform that number that rb19 number especially if he can perform in the passing game and one thing I do want to add on the ADP aspect of the guys that we're talking about here the ADP that we are using to discuss these players is an aggregate of multiple uh fantasy websites fantasy apps that you can use to draft these guys where if you look at you know look at your specific league on this list like most of our leagues as a group collectively are on sleeper and if you look at ra Andre's sleeper ADP it's 68 versus 58 and then you have kamaras who is 52 in on sleeper as well so we're talking a 16 pick discrepancy between these guys on sleeper whereas when you're picking between these guys on Yahoo it's it's 10 Rounds different or 10 picks different roughly so the platform you're playing on is also going to have an influence on some of these decisions that you have to make because each League's ADP is going to be different um so looking at the overall ad the aggregate ADP you know I'm still comfortable with him at that cost but it picks 68 on sleeper currently I'm even more in you know like you said if he falls maybe around that's a 10- pick difference based from his aggregate to his sleeper specific adps so I think that's just an important thing to note on the adps that we are using is they are aggregat so they may be very very different depending on what platform you're drafting on certainly I just think I'd be staring at player 71 on sleeper and I'd probably be trying to take a little bit of Kyler Murray uh in that part of the draft just it's the last crop of wide receivers that like I have probably any interest in um and it's the last stab maybe at some tight ends like if you do want to play the George KD Kyle Pitts Evan Ingram game that's I I kind of like all those steps over ra Andre there's there's other backs we'll talk about in other videos that I think make up for it where you can get kind of similar bets on off that are a little bit lesser but you're you're doing at a two three four round discount I mean I'll throw out some names I think gavonte Williams we're just talking about bad offense where there's the receiving upside it's a guy we're getting like you know mid rb3 prices and could it not work out sure but you are talking a lot later you know two three rounds later as well as a player I'll talk about a little bit later as well and Jonathan Brooks who who is a guy uh you know get our running back 31 again it's a lesser offense but I think it's it's it's very comparable and then you know much less exciting you can you can go into the powered Spears or Moss Brown plant your flag or even a Devon single is pretty boring Brian Robinson Brian Robinson play the Brian Robinson game there so no but I want to say this I do agree I do like I do like the the opportunity Stevenson gives you with with if he hits his ceiling he's gonna outperform rb19 it could end up being a solid pick it's it's it's just one that point I I find it hard to hit Tim um why don't you hit us with a player you think is is due to due to regress in 2024